Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

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In the leadup to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about views of the electorate about the major party leaders.

Graphical summary[edit]

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Voting intention[edit]

Poll results[edit]

Date Brand Firm Interview Mode Sample Size Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
20 January - 3 February 2020 ANU poll[1] ANU Online 3249 34.8% 33.4% 14.7% 10.5%
4 Feb 2020 Adam Bandt replaces Richard Di Natale as Greens leader
29 January – 1 February 2020 Newspoll[2] YouGov Online 1510 38% 35% 13% 4% 10% 48% 52%
8–11 January 2020 Newspoll[3] YouGov Online 1505 40% 36% 12% 4% 8% 49% 51%
4–8 December 2019 Newspoll[4] YouGov Online 1503 42% 33% 11% 5% 9% 52% 48%
21–23 November 2019 Newspoll[5] YouGov Online[6] 1519 41% 33% 12% 5% 9% 51% 49%
7–10 November 2019 Newspoll[7] YouGov IVR/Online 1682 40% 35% 12% 7% 6% 50% 50%
17–20 October 2019 Newspoll[8] YouGov IVR/Online 1634 42% 33% 13% 6% 6% 51% 49%
26–29 September 2019 Newspoll[9] YouGov IVR/Online 1658 42% 33% 13% 6% 6% 51% 49%
5–7 September 2019 Newspoll[10] YouGov IVR/Online 1661 43% 35% 12% 5% 5% 51% 49%
15–18 August 2019 Newspoll[11] YouGov IVR/Online 1623 42% 34% 11% 4% 9% 51% 49%
25–28 July 2019 Newspoll[12] YouGov IVR/Online 1601 44% 33% 11% 3% 9% 53% 47%
30 May 2019 Anthony Albanese replaces Bill Shorten as Labor leader
18 May 2019 election 41.44% 33.34% 10.4% 3.08% 11.74% 51.53% 48.47%

Preferred Prime Minister[edit]

Poll results[edit]

Date Brand Firm Interview Mode Sample Size Preferred Prime Minister Morrison Albanese
Morrison Albanese Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know
11 February 2020 Essential[13] Essential Online n/a 36% 36% 28% 39% 52% 9% 41% 31% 28%
29 January – 1 February 2020 Newspoll[14] YouGov Online 1510 38% 43% 19% 37% 59% 4% 43% 40% 17%
7–11 January 2020 Essential[15] Essential Online 1081 36% 39% 25% 40% 52% 8% 43% 30% 27%
8–11 January 2020 Newspoll[3] YouGov Online 1505 39% 43% 18% 37% 59% 4% 46% 37% 17%
5–8 December 2019 Essential[16] Essential Online 1035 n/a n/a n/a 45% 43% 12% 39% 28% 33%
8 December 2019 Newspoll[4] YouGov Online 48% 34% 18% 45% 48% 7% 40% 41% 19%
23 November 2019 Newspoll[5] YouGov Online 46% 35% 19% 43% 52% 5% 38% 45% 17%
12 November 2019 Essential[17] YouGov Online 44% 28% 29% 45% 41% 14% 37% 34% 29%
10 November 2019 Newspoll[7] YouGov IVR/Online 46% 32% 22% 46% 43% 11% 42% 37% 21%
20 October 2019 Newspoll[8] YouGov IVR/Online 47% 32% 21% 47% 45% 8% 37% 44% 19%
15 October 2019 Essential[18] Essential Online 43% 28% 29% 47% 38% 15% 40% 29% 31%
29 September 2019 Newspoll[9] YouGov IVR/Online 50% 31% 19% 47% 43% 10% 39% 40% 21%
17 September 2019 Essential[19] Essential Online 46% 25% 29% 49% 36% 15% 36% 31% 33%
5–7 September 2019 Newspoll[10] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 28% 24% 49% 39% 12% 35% 40% 25%
1 September 2019 YouGov[20] YouGov Online 46% 23% 31% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a%
22 August 2019 Essential[21] Essential Online 44% 28% 28% 48% 37% 15% 38% 29% 33%
15–18 August 2019 Newspoll[22] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 30% 22% 48% 42% 10% 41% 34% 25%
25–28 July 2019 Newspoll[23] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 31% 21% 51% 36% 13% 39% 36% 25%
17–21 July 2019 Essential[24] Essential Online 44% 26% 30% 48% 34% 18% 39% 24% 37%
19–23 June 2019 Essential[25] Essential Online 43% 25% 32% 48% 36% 16% 35% 25% 40%

Sub-National Polling[edit]

NSW[edit]

Date Firm Sample Size Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[26] 930-1472 42% 35% 10% 2% 12% 51% 49%
18 May 2019 election 42.54% 34.56% 8.71% 1.31% 12.88% 51.78% 48.22%

VIC[edit]

Date Firm Sample Size Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[26] 930-1472 40% 38% 12% 1% 11% 47% 53%
18 May 2019 election 38.58% 36.86% 11.89% 0.95% 11.72% 46.86% 53.14%

QLD[edit]

Date Firm Sample Size Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[26] 930-1472 40% 29% 12% 13% 6% 55% 45%
1 September 2019 YouGov Galaxy 40% 29% 12% 13% 6% 55% 45%
18 May 2019 election 43.70% 26.68% 10.32% 8.86% 10.44% 58.44% 41.56%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Biddle, Nicholas (18 February 2020). "Exposure and the impact on attitudes of the 2019-20 bushfires" (PDF). Australian National University. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  2. ^ Benson, Simon (2 February 2020). "Newspoll: Coalition vote gets burnt by fires, rorts". The Australian. Retrieved 2 February 2020.
  3. ^ a b Benson, Simon (12 January 2020). "Newspoll: Scott Morrison takes a hit in bushfires backlash". The Australian. Retrieved 13 January 2020.
  4. ^ a b Benson, Simon (8 December 2019). "Newspoll: Coalition on a high but Albanese claws back voter support". The Australian. Retrieved 8 December 2019.
  5. ^ a b Benson, Simon (24 November 2019). "Newspoll: The Coalition nudges ahead in poll revamp". The Australian. Retrieved 24 November 2019.
  6. ^ White, Campbell (10:07PM AEST NOVEMBER 24, 2019). "Newspoll: Polling changes with the aim of getting it right". The Australian. Retrieved 3 January 2020. Check date values in: |date= (help)
  7. ^ a b Benson, Simon (10 November 2019). "Newspoll: ALP draws level as drought hits hard". The Australian. Retrieved 10 November 2019.
  8. ^ a b Benson, Simon (20 October 2018). "Coalition shrugs off critics, keeps ALP at bay". The Australian. Retrieved 22 October 2019.
  9. ^ a b Benson, Simon. "Newspoll: ALP sheds support but Albanese turns tide". The Australian. Retrieved 29 September 2019.
  10. ^ a b Benson, Simon. "Slide puts Albanese into negative territory". The Australian. Retrieved 8 September 2019.
  11. ^ Benson, Simon. "Newspoll: Post-poll reality check for Coalition". The Australian. Retrieved 18 August 2019.
  12. ^ Benson, Simon (28 July 2019). "Election 2019: Scott Morrison gets Post election surge as voters swing behind him". The Australian. Retrieved 28 July 2019.
  13. ^ "The Essential Report: 11 February 2020" (PDF). Essential Research.
  14. ^ "Newspoll: Coalition vote gets burnt by fires, rorts". The Australian.
  15. ^ "The Essential Report: 13 January 2020" (PDF). Essential Research.
  16. ^ editor, Katharine Murphy Political (2019-12-11). "Essential poll: Morrison gets thumbs up from voters but overall disapproval rises" (PDF). The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2019-12-11.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  17. ^ editor, Katharine Murphy Political (2019-11-11). "Essential poll: voters divided on PM's plan to crack down on environmental protests". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2019-11-12.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  18. ^ "Essential Report 15 October 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 15 October 2019.
  19. ^ "Essential Report 17 September 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17 September 2019.
  20. ^ "YouGov". YouGov poll the Courier mail. 1 September 2019.
  21. ^ "Essential Report 22 August 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17–21 July 2019.
  22. ^ "Newspoll 18 August 2019". The Australian. 18 August 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  23. ^ "Newspoll 28 July 2019". The Australian. 25–28 July 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  24. ^ "Essential Report 24 July 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17–21 July 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  25. ^ "Essential Report 28 June 2019" (PDF). Essential Vision and The Guardian. 19–23 June 2019. Retrieved 4 July 2019.
  26. ^ a b c Benson, Simon (2019-12-25). "Labor fails to win back the middle and males Newspoll finds". Archived from the original on 2019-12-25. Retrieved 2019-12-28.