Opinion polling for the next Australian federal election

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In the leadup to the next Australian federal election, a number of polling companies have been conducting regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorate's views on major party leaders.

Graphical summary[edit]

Primary vote
Two-party-preferred

Voting intention[edit]

Date Brand Firm Interview mode Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH UND L/NP ALP UND
24–27 March 2021 Newspoll[1] YouGov Online 1517 40% 38% 11% 2% 9% – 48% 52% –
6–7, 13–14 March 2021 Morgan Poll[2] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2747 41% 34.5% 12.5% 2.5% 9.5% – 49.5% 50.5% –
10–13 March 2021 Newspoll[3] YouGov Online 1521 39% 39% 10% 3% 9% – 48% 52% –
17–20 February 2021 Newspoll[4] YouGov Online 1504 42% 37% 10% 3% 8% – 50% 50% –
6–7, 13–14 February 2021 Morgan Poll[5] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2786 40% 34.5% 13% 3.5% 9% – 49.5% 50.5% –
27 January – 1 February 2021 Essential[6][7] Essential Online 1092 37% 35% 10% 3% 7% 8% 44% 47% 8%
27–30 January 2021 Newspoll[8] YouGov Online 1512 42% 36% 10% 3% 9% – 50% 50% –
18 January 2021 Essential[6] Essential Online – 40% 33% 10% 3% 7% 7% 48% 45% 7%
14 December 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 37% 35% 8% 4% 7% 9% 45% 46% 9%
30 November 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 41% 33% 8% 4% 6% 8% 43% 49% 8%
25–28 November 2020 Newspoll[9] YouGov Online 1511 43% 36% 11% 2% 8% – 51% 49% –
16 November 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 38% 35% 9% 4% 6% 7% 45% 47% 7%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Morgan Poll[10] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2824 42% 34% 12% 4% 8% – 50.5% 49.5% –
4–7 November 2020 Newspoll[11] YouGov Online 1510 43% 35% 11% 3% 8% – 51% 49% –
2 November 2020 Essential[6] Essential Online – 39% 35% 9% 3% 5% 9% 44% 46% 9%
14–19 October 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online – 39% 35% 9% 3% 7% 8% 48% 45% 8%
12 October 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online – 40% 33% 9% 3% 5% 9% 47% 44% 9%
8–10 October 2020 Newspoll[13] YouGov Online 1527 44% 34% 11% 3% 8% – 52% 48% –
5 October 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online – 39% 34% 9% 5% 6% 7% 47% 46% 7%
21 September 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online – 41% 31% 10% 4% 5% 9% 49% 42% 8%
16–19 September 2020 Newspoll[14] YouGov Online 2068 43% 34% 12% 3% 8% – 51% 49% –
7 September 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online – 38% 32% 10% 3% 9% 8% 45% 47% 8%
26–29 August 2020 Newspoll[15] YouGov Online 1507 41% 36% 11% 3% 9% – 50% 50% –
24 August 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online – 39% 35% 9% 4% 6% 7% 47% 45% 7%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Morgan Poll[16] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2841 46% 32.5% 11% 3% 7.5% – 54% 46% –
10 August 2020 Essential[12] Essential Online – 38% 34% 9% 4% 5% 10% 46% 44% 10%
5–8 August 2020 Newspoll[17] YouGov Online 1509 43% 33% 11% 4% 9% – 52% 48% –
23–26 July 2020 Essential[18] Essential Online 1058 38% 35% 9% 4% 6% 8% 45% 47% 8%
11–12, 18–19 July 2020 Morgan Poll[19] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2589 43.5% 33.5% 11% 2.5% 9.5% – 51.5% 48.5% –
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[20] YouGov Online 1850 44% 34% 10% 4% 8% – 53% 47% –
13 July 2020 Essential[18] Essential Online 1054 37% 34% 10% 4% 6% 9% 45% 46% 9%
29 June 2020 Essential[18] Essential Online 1079 39% 33% 9% 4% 6% 8% 47% 45% 8%
24–27 June 2020 Newspoll[21] YouGov Online 1521 42% 35% 11% 3% 9% – 51% 49% –
22 June 2020 Essential[18] Essential Online 1079 39% 33% 10% 5% 6% 7% 48% 46% 7%
13–14, 20–21 June 2020 Morgan Poll[22] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2593 42.5% 34.5% 10.5% 4% 8.5% – 50.5% 49.5% –
15 June 2020 Essential[18] Essential Online 1087 38% 35% 9% 5% 7% 7% 47% 47% 7%
8 June 2020 Essential[18] Essential Online 1073 40% 33% 9% 4% 6% 8% 47% 45% 8%
3–6 June 2020 Newspoll[23] YouGov Online 1512 42% 34% 12% 4% 8% – 51% 49% –
13–16 May 2020 Newspoll[24] YouGov Online 1504 43% 35% 10% 3% 9% – 51% 49% –
18–19, 25–26 April 2020 Morgan Poll[25] Roy Morgan Telephone/Online 2806 43.5% 33% 11.5% 3% 9% – 51.5% 48.5% –
22–25 April 2020 Newspoll[26] YouGov Online 1519 41% 36% 12% 4% 7% – 50% 50% –
1–3 April 2020 Newspoll[27] YouGov Online 1508 42% 34% 13% 5% 6% – 51% 49% –
11–14 March 2020 Newspoll[28] YouGov Online 1501 40% 36% 12% 4% 8% – 49% 51% –
27 February 2020 COVID-19 pandemic declared a national emergency
19–22 February 2020 Newspoll[29] YouGov Online 1513 38% 34% 13% 4% 11% – 49% 51% –
20 January – 3 February 2020 ANU poll[30] ANU CATI & Online 3249 34.8% 33.4% 14.7% – 10.5% – – – –
4 February 2020 Adam Bandt replaces Richard Di Natale as Greens leader
29 January – 1 February 2020 Newspoll[31] YouGov Online 1510 38% 35% 13% 4% 10% – 48% 52% –
8–11 January 2020 Newspoll[32] YouGov Online 1505 40% 36% 12% 4% 8% – 49% 51% –
January 2020 Australian bushfire season peaks
4–8 December 2019 Newspoll[33] YouGov Online 1503 42% 33% 11% 5% 9% – 52% 48% –
21–23 November 2019 Newspoll[34] YouGov Online[35] 1519 41% 33% 12% 5% 9% – 51% 49% –
7–10 November 2019 Newspoll[36] YouGov IVR/Online 1682 40% 35% 12% 7% 6% – 50% 50% –
17–20 October 2019 Newspoll[37] YouGov IVR/Online 1634 42% 33% 13% 6% 6% – 51% 49% –
26–29 September 2019 Newspoll[38] YouGov IVR/Online 1658 42% 33% 13% 6% 6% – 51% 49% –
5–7 September 2019 Newspoll[39] YouGov IVR/Online 1661 43% 35% 12% 5% 5% – 51% 49% –
15–18 August 2019 Newspoll[40] YouGov IVR/Online 1623 42% 34% 11% 4% 9% – 51% 49% –
25–28 July 2019 Newspoll[41] YouGov IVR/Online 1601 44% 33% 11% 3% 9% – 53% 47% –
30 May 2019 Anthony Albanese replaces Bill Shorten as Labor leader
18 May 2019 election 41.44% 33.34% 10.4% 3.08% 11.74% N/A 51.53% 48.47% N/A

Preferred Prime Minister[edit]

Date Brand Firm Interview mode Sample size Preferred Prime Minister Morrison Albanese
Morrison Albanese Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know Satisfied Dissatisfied Don't Know
12 April 2021 Essential[42] Essential Online 1368 47% 28% 25% 54% 37% 9% 39% 34% 27%
24–27 March 2021 Newspoll[1] YouGov Online 1517 52% 32% 16% 55% 40% 5% 42% 40% 18%
March 16, March 30 Essential[43] Essential Online 1100 52% 26% 22% 57% 35% 8% 41% 32% 27%
10–13 March 2021 Newspoll[3] YouGov Online 1521 56% 30% 14% 62% 34% 4% 42% 41% 17%
17–20 February 2021 Newspoll[4] YouGov Online 1504 61% 26% 13% 64% 32% 4% 38% 45% 17%
27–30 January 2021 Newspoll[8] YouGov Online 1512 57% 29% 14% 63% 33% 4% 41% 43% 16%
December 2020 Essential[43] Essential Online 1071 50% 24% 26% 62% 28% 10% 43% 29% 28%
25–28 November 2020 Newspoll[9] YouGov Online 1511 60% 28% 12% 66% 30% 4% 44% 41% 15%
4–6 November 2020 Newspoll[11] YouGov Online 1510 58% 29% 13% 64% 31% 5% 43% 39% 18%
8–10 October 2020 Newspoll[13] YouGov Online 1527 57% 28% 15% 65% 31% 4% 39% 43% 18%
16–19 September 2020 Newspoll[14] YouGov Online 2068 59% 27% 14% 65% 31% 4% 39% 40% 21%
26–29 August 2020 Newspoll[15] YouGov Online 1507 58% 29% 13% 64% 32% 4% 43% 41% 16%
6–9 August 2020 Essential[44] Essential Online 1010 52% 22% 26% 66% 23% 11% 44% 30% 26%
5–8 August 2020 Newspoll[17] YouGov Online 1509 60% 25% 15% 68% 29% 3% 41% 38% 15%
15–18 July 2020 Newspoll[20] YouGov Online 1850 59% 26% 15% 68% 27% 5% 41% 40% 19%
9–12 July 2020 Essential[45] Essential Online 1054 50% 27% 23% 63% 27% 10% 44% 28% 28%
24–27 June 2020 Newspoll[21] YouGov Online 1521 58% 26% 16% 68% 27% 5% 42% 40% 18%
3–6 June 2020 Newspoll[23] YouGov Online 1512 56% 26% 18% 66% 29% 5% 41% 38% 21%
2 June 2020 Essential[46] Essential Online 1059 53% 23% 24% 65% 26% 9% 43% 30% 27%
13–16 May 2020 Newspoll[24] YouGov Online 1504 56% 29% 15% 66% 30% 4% 44% 37% 19%
5 May 2020 Essential[47] Essential Online 1093 50% 25% 25% 64% 27% 9% 42% 27% 31%
22–25 April 2020 Newspoll[48] YouGov Online 1508 56% 28% 16% 68% 28% 4% 45% 34% 21%
2–5 April 2020 Essential[49] Essential Online 1069 46% 27% 27% 59% 31% 10% 44% 29% 27%
1–3 April 2020 Newspoll[50] YouGov Online 1508 53% 29% 18% 61% 35% 4% 45% 36% 19%
11–14 March 2020 Newspoll[51] YouGov Online 1501 42% 38% 20% 41% 53% 6% 40% 40% 20%
11 March 2020 Essential[52] Essential Online 1096 40% 35% 25% 41% 49% 10% 41% 33% 26%
19–22 February 2020 Newspoll[53] YouGov Online 1513 40% 41% 19% 38% 58% 4% 39% 44% 17%
11 February 2020 Essential[54] Essential Online 1056 36% 36% 28% 39% 52% 9% 41% 31% 28%
29 January – 1 February 2020 Newspoll[55] YouGov Online 1510 38% 43% 19% 37% 59% 4% 43% 40% 17%
7–11 January 2020 Essential[56] Essential Online 1081 36% 39% 25% 40% 52% 8% 43% 30% 27%
8–11 January 2020 Newspoll[32] YouGov Online 1505 39% 43% 18% 37% 59% 4% 46% 37% 17%
5–8 December 2019 Essential[57] Essential Online 1035 n/a n/a n/a 45% 43% 12% 39% 28% 33%
8 December 2019 Newspoll[33] YouGov Online 48% 34% 18% 45% 48% 7% 40% 41% 19%
23 November 2019 Newspoll[34] YouGov Online 46% 35% 19% 43% 52% 5% 38% 45% 17%
12 November 2019 Essential[58] YouGov Online 44% 28% 29% 45% 41% 14% 37% 34% 29%
10 November 2019 Newspoll[36] YouGov IVR/Online 46% 32% 22% 46% 43% 11% 42% 37% 21%
20 October 2019 Newspoll[37] YouGov IVR/Online 47% 32% 21% 47% 45% 8% 37% 44% 19%
15 October 2019 Essential[59] Essential Online 43% 28% 29% 47% 38% 15% 40% 29% 31%
29 September 2019 Newspoll[38] YouGov IVR/Online 50% 31% 19% 47% 43% 10% 39% 40% 21%
17 September 2019 Essential[60] Essential Online 46% 25% 29% 49% 36% 15% 36% 31% 33%
5–7 September 2019 Newspoll[39] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 28% 24% 49% 39% 12% 35% 40% 25%
1 September 2019 YouGov[61] YouGov Online 46% 23% 31% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a% n/a%
22 August 2019 Essential[62] Essential Online 44% 28% 28% 48% 37% 15% 38% 29% 33%
15–18 August 2019 Newspoll[63] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 30% 22% 48% 42% 10% 41% 34% 25%
25–28 July 2019 Newspoll[64] YouGov IVR/Online 48% 31% 21% 51% 36% 13% 39% 36% 25%
17–21 July 2019 Essential[65] Essential Online 44% 26% 30% 48% 34% 18% 39% 24% 37%
19–23 June 2019 Essential[66] Essential Online 43% 25% 32% 48% 36% 16% 35% 25% 40%

Sub-national polling[edit]

NSW[edit]

Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
27 January-27 March 2021 Newspoll[67] 1779 42% 36% 11% 1% 10% 50% 50%
6–7, 13–14 February 2021 Roy Morgan[5] 2786 – – – – – 54% 46%
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[68] 2304 44% 36% 11% 1% 8% 51% 49%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2824 – – – – – 53.5% 46.5%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[16] 2841 – – – – – 56.5% 43.5%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[69] 457-2034 42% 37% 11% 1% 9% 49% 51%
11/12 & 18/19 July 2020 Roy Morgan[19] 2589 – – – – – 52.5% 47.5%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[70] 472-1905 42% 36% 11% 2% 9% 50% 50%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[71] 930-1472 42% 35% 10% 2% 12% 51% 49%
18 May 2019 election 42.54% 34.56% 8.71% 1.31% 12.88% 51.78% 48.22%

VIC[edit]

Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
L/NP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
27 January-27 March 2021 Newspoll[67] 1506 40% 39% 10% 1% 10% 47% 53%
6–7, 13–14 February 2021 Roy Morgan[5] 2786 – – – – – 45% 55%
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[68] 2160 39% 39% 14% 0% 8% 45% 55%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2824 – – – – – 46.5% 53.5%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[16] 2841 – – – – – 48% 52%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[69] 457-2034 37% 40% 14% 1% 8% 44% 56%
11/12 & 18/19 July 2020 Roy Morgan[19] 2589 – – – – – 46.5% 53.5%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[70] 472-1905 39% 40% 13% 1% 7% 45% 55%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[71] 930-1472 40% 38% 12% 1% 11% 47% 53%
18 May 2019 election 38.58% 36.86% 11.89% 0.95% 11.72% 46.86% 53.14%

QLD[edit]

Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
27 January-27 March 2021 Newspoll[67] 1276 42% 35% 10% 8% 5% 53% 47%
6–7, 13–14 February 2021 Roy Morgan[5] 2786 – – – – – 52% 48%
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[68] 1879 45% 29% 12% 9% 5% 57% 43%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2824 – – – – – 54.5% 45.5%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[16] 2841 – – – – – 60% 40%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[69] 457-2034 46% 27% 10% 11% 6% 59% 41%
11/12 & 18/19 July 2020 Roy Morgan[19] 2589 – – – – – 58% 42%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[70] 472-1905 42% 28% 13% 11% 6% 56% 44%
7–8 December 2019 Newspoll[71] 930-1472 40% 29% 12% 13% 6% 55% 45%
1 September 2019 YouGov Galaxy 40% 29% 12% 13% 6% 55% 45%
18 May 2019 election 43.70% 26.68% 10.32% 8.86% 10.44% 58.44% 41.56%

SA[edit]

Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
27 January-27 March 2021 Newspoll[67] 517 38% 41% 10% 0% 11% 45% 55%
6–7, 13–14 February 2021 Roy Morgan[5] 2786 – – – – – 50.5% 49.5%
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[68] 600 44% 36% 10% 1% 9% 51% 49%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2824 – – – – – 48% 52%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[16] 2841 – – – – – 57.5% 42.5%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[69] 457-2034 43% 36% 10% 0% 11% 50% 50%
11/12 & 18/19 July 2020 Roy Morgan[19] 2589 – – – – – 53% 47%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[70] 472-1905 40% 37% 12% 0% 11% 47% 53%
18 May 2019 election 40.57% 35.38% 9.61% 0.84% 13.60% 49.29% 50.71%

WA[edit]

Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
27 January-27 March 2021 Newspoll[67] 628 40% 42% 10% 4% 4% 47% 53%
6–7, 13–14 February 2021 Roy Morgan[5] 2786 – – – – – 49.5% 50.5%
26 August–28 November 2020 Newspoll[68] 779 43% 32% 13% 7% 5% 53% 47%
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 Roy Morgan[10] 2824 – – – – – 51% 49%
8–9, 15–16 August 2020 Roy Morgan[16] 2841 – – – – – 53.5% 46.5%
3 June–8 August 2020 Newspoll[69] 457-2034 45% 31% 13% 8% 3% 54% 46%
11/12 & 18/19 July 2020 Roy Morgan[19] 2589 – – – – – 53.5% 46.5%
11 March–16 May 2020 Newspoll[70] 472-1905 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 55% 45%
18 May 2019 election 43.79% 29.80% 11.62% 5.31% 9.48% 55.55% 44.45%

TAS[edit]

Date Firm Sample size Primary vote 2pp vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
14–15, 21–22 November 2020 2824 – – – – – 52% 48%
11/12 & 18/19 July 2020 Roy Morgan[19] 2589 – – – – – 42% 58%
18 May 2019 election 34.60% 33.61% 10.12% 2.79% 18.88% 44.04% 55.96%

Government approval rating[edit]

Individual polls[edit]

Date Firm Right
Direction 		Wrong
Direction 		Can't
Say 		GCR[72] Lead
6–7, 13–14 February 2021 Roy Morgan 53.5% 30% 16.5 123.5 +23.5%
8/9 & 15/16 August 2020 Roy Morgan 48% 34% 18% 114 +14%
11/12 & 18/19 July 2020 Roy Morgan[73] 49% 34.5% 16.5% 114.5 +14.5%
13/14 & 23/24 June 2020 Roy Morgan[74] 53.5% 29.5% 17% 124 +24%
16/17 & 23/24 May 2020 Roy Morgan 54.5% 29.5% 16% 125 +25%
18–26 April 2020 Roy Morgan[25] 51.5% 27.5% 21% 124 +24%
29 February–8 March 2020 Roy Morgan[25] 37% 47% 16% 90 –10%
22–30 June 2019 Roy Morgan[75] 43.5% 39% 17.5% 104.5 +4.5%

References[edit]

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  58. ^ editor, Katharine Murphy Political (11 November 2019). "Essential poll: voters divided on PM's plan to crack down on environmental protests". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 12 November 2019.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  59. ^ "Essential Report 15 October 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 15 October 2019.
  60. ^ "Essential Report 17 September 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17 September 2019.
  61. ^ "YouGov". YouGov poll the Courier mail. 1 September 2019.
  62. ^ "Essential Report 22 August 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17–21 July 2019.
  63. ^ "Newspoll 18 August 2019". The Australian. 18 August 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  64. ^ "Newspoll 28 July 2019". The Australian. 25–28 July 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  65. ^ "Essential Report 24 July 2019". Essential Vision and The Guardian. 17–21 July 2019. Missing or empty |url= (help)
  66. ^ "Essential Report 28 June 2019" (PDF). Essential Vision and The Guardian. 19–23 June 2019. Retrieved 4 July 2019.
  67. ^ a b c d e "Newspoll: Coalition in election peril after hit in resources states". The Australian.
  68. ^ a b c d e "Bloke blues: Anthony Albanese fails to sway men, blue-collar workers". The Australian.
  69. ^ a b c d e "Newspoll DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN" (PDF). The Australian.
  70. ^ a b c d e "Subscribe to The Australian | Newspaper home delivery, website, iPad, iPhone & Android apps". www.theaustralian.com.au. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
  71. ^ a b c Benson, Simon (25 December 2019). "Labor fails to win back the middle and males Newspoll finds". Retrieved 28 December 2019.
  72. ^ GCR is known as the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating which is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is "going in the right direction" and the percentage who say the country is "going in seriously the wrong direction".
  73. ^ "L-NP (51.5%) increases lead over ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as second wave of COVID-19 hits Victoria". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 26 July 2020.
  74. ^ "L-NP (51.5%) increases lead over ALP (48.5%) in mid-July as second wave of COVID-19 hits Victoria". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 26 July 2020.
  75. ^ "Government Confidence jumps after L-NP win Election". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 2 May 2020.
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