Opinion polling for the next National Assembly for Wales election

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In the run-up to the next National Assembly for Wales election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous National Assembly for Wales election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. Under the Wales Act 2017, the next National Assembly for Wales election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021.[1]

Constituency vote[edit]

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 40 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Graphical summary[edit]

The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the National Assembly for Wales election; trendlines are local regressions (LOESS).

Opinion polling for the next National Assembly for Wales election (constituency vote).svg

Poll results[edit]

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Lab Con Plaid Cymru UKIP Lib Dem Green AWAP Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 23–26 July 2019 1,071 21% 19% 24% 12% 4% 19% 2% 3%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 16–20 May 2019 1,009 25% 17% 24% 1% 9% 5% 1% 1% 17% 0% 1%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 31% 23% 24% 7% 6% 1% 1% 4% 3% 0% 7%
ICM/BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 2019 1,000 34% 23% 27% 5% 7% 2% 2% 7%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 19–22 Feb 2019 1,025 32% 26% 23% 7% 8% 3% 1% 2% 6%
Sky Data/Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 2018 1,014 42% 26% 22% 4% 3% 2% 1% 16%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[2][3]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 4–7 Dec 2018 1,024 40% 25% 20% 5% 7% 2% 1% 0% 15%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,031 38% 28% 19% 6% 6% 1% 1% 1% 10%
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[4]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[5]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[6]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 28 Jun–2 Jul 2018 1,031 38% 28% 21% 4% 6% 1% 1% 1% 10%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 12–15 Mar 2018 1,015 39% 28% 22% 5% 4% 1% 1% 0% 11%
ICM/BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 2018 1,001 40% 22% 24% 5% 6% 1% 2% 16%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[7]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 21–24 Nov 2017 1,016 43% 26% 19% 4% 5% 2% 1% 1% 17%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[8]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 4–7 Sep 2017 1,011 43% 25% 19% 4% 5% 1% 1% 0% 18%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 29–31 May 2017 1,014 42% 26% 19% 5% 6% 1% 1% 0% 16%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 18–21 May 2017 1,025 40% 27% 20% 5% 6% 2% 0% 1% 13%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 5–7 May 2017 1,018 33% 33% 20% 3% 7% 2% 1% 1% Tie
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 19–21 Apr 2017 1,029 29% 30% 22% 8% 8% 1% 1% 1% 1%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 3–6 Jan 2017 1,034 31% 25% 21% 12% 8% 2% 1% 0% 6%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 18–21 Sep 2016 1,001 34% 24% 20% 13% 6% 2% 1% 0% 10%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 Jun–4 Jul 2016 1,010 32% 19% 23% 16% 7% 1% 1% 0% 9%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 May–2 Jun 2016 1,017 34% 18% 23% 15% 7% 2% 1% 0% 11%
2016 National Assembly for Wales election 5 May 2016 34.7% 21.2% 20.5% 12.5% 7.7% 2.5% 1.0% 13.6%

Regional vote[edit]

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 20 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Graphical summary[edit]

The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next National Assembly for Wales election; trendlines are local regressions (LOESS).

Opinion polling for the next National Assembly for Wales election (regional vote).svg

Poll results[edit]

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Lab Plaid Cymru Con UKIP Lib Dem AWAP Green Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 23–26 July 2019 1,071 19% 23% 18% 12% 4% 17% 7% 4%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 16–20 May 2019 1,009 21% 22% 12% 1% 7% 3% 8% 2% 23% 1% 1%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 28% 22% 20% 5% 5% 3% 3% 5% 6% 2%[a] 6%
ICM/BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 2019 1,000 32% 25% 22% 6% 6% 3% 6% 7%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 19–22 Feb 2019 1,025 29% 23% 24% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4%[b] 5%
Sky Data/Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 2018 1,014 39% 22% 23% 4% 2% 7% 2% 1% 16%
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[2][3]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 4–7 Dec 2018 1,024 36% 20% 24% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3%[c] 12%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,031 37% 18% 26% 5% 6% 3% 4% 2%[a] 11%
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[4]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[5]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[6]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 28 Jun–2 Jul 2018 1,031 37% 22% 25% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1%[a] 12%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 12–15 Mar 2018 1,015 36% 21% 27% 6% 4% 3% 3% 1%[a] 9%
ICM/BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 2018 1,001 36% 22% 21% 8% 6% 2% 3% 14%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[7]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 21–24 Nov 2017 1,016 38% 18% 27% 4% 5% 2% 3% 2%[d] 11%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[8]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 4–7 Sep 2017 1,011 40% 19% 23% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2%[e] 17%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 29–31 May 2017 1,014 38% 17% 27% 6% 6% 3% 2% 2%[f] 11%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 18–21 May 2017 1,025 37% 19% 26% 5% 5% 3% 3% 1% 11%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 5–7 May 2017 1,018 31% 20% 32% 5% 6% 3% 3% 2%[f] 1%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 19–21 Apr 2017 1,029 27% 20% 28% 9% 6% 3% 5% 2%[a] 1%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 3–6 Jan 2017 1,034 28% 20% 22% 14% 7% 4% 2% 1% 6%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 18–21 Sep 2016 1,001 29% 21% 22% 13% 6% 4% 3% 3%[g] 7%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 Jun–4 Jul 2016 1,010 29% 24% 18% 15% 6% 3% 4% 3%[h] 5%
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 May–2 Jun 2016 1,017 32% 21% 18% 14% 6% 4% 4% 0% 11%
2016 National Assembly for Wales election 5 May 2016 31.5% 20.8% 18.8% 13.0% 6.5% 4.4% 3.0% 2.1% 10.6%

Seat projections[edit]

Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his blog, known as Elections in Wales.

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
Lab Plaid Cymru Con UKIP Lib Dem Green AWAP Change UK Brexit Party Other Majority
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 23–26 July 2019 1,071 17 15 11 0 7 0 0 0 10 0 14 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 16–20 May 2019 1,009 20 13 7 0 2 5 0 0 13 0 11 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 2–5 Apr 2019 1,025 23 16 15 1 1 0 0 0 4 0 8 short
ICM/BBC Wales 7–23 Feb 2019 1,000 25 19 14 1 1 0 0 6 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 19–22 Feb 2019 1,025 23 16 17 2 2 0 0 0 8 short
Sky Data/Cardiff University 7–14 Dec 2018 1,014 29 14 13 1 1 0 2 0 2 short
6–13 Dec 2018 Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[2][3]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 4–7 Dec 2018 1,024 29 13 16 1 1 0 0 0 2 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 Oct–2 Nov 2018 1,031 29 11 18 1 1 0 0 0 2 short
28 Sep 2018 Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[4]
6 Sep 2018 Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[5]
10 Aug 2018 Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[6]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 28 Jun–2 Jul 2018 1,031 28 15 15 1 1 0 0 0 3 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 12–15 Mar 2018 1,015 28 13 17 1 1 0 0 0 3 short
ICM/BBC Wales 8–25 Feb 2018 1,001 30 15 13 1 1 0 0 1 short
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election[7]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 21–24 Nov 2017 1,016 30 10 18 1 1 0 0 0 1 short
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[8]
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 4–7 Sep 2017 1,011 31 11 16 1 1 0 0 0 2
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 19–21 Apr 2017 1,029 21 14 18 5 2 0 0 0 10 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 3–6 Jan 2017 1,034 22 14 14 8 2 0 0 0 9 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 18–21 Sep 2016 1,001 26 12 14 7 1 0 0 0 5 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 Jun–4 Jul 2016 1,010 25 15 11 8 1 0 0 0 6 short
YouGov/ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University 30 May–2 Jun 2016 1,017 27 14 11 7 1 0 0 0 4 short
2016 National Assembly for Wales election 5 May 2016 29 12 11 7 1 0 0 0 2 short

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d e Including the Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  2. ^ Including the Socialist Labour Party and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  3. ^ Including the BNP and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
  4. ^ Including the Communist Party of Britain with 1%
  5. ^ Including the BNP with 1%
  6. ^ a b Including the Socialist Labour Party with 1%
  7. ^ Including the Welsh Christian Party, BNP and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
  8. ^ Including the Welsh Christian Party and Communist Party of Britain with 1%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Wales Act 2017" (PDF). Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  2. ^ a b c "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  3. ^ a b c "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  4. ^ a b c "Plaid Cymru leadership contest: Adam Price wins". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  5. ^ a b c "Paul Davies wins Welsh Tory assembly group leadership poll". BBC News. 6 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  6. ^ a b c "UKIP Wales members elect Gareth Bennett as assembly leader". BBC News. 10 August 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  7. ^ a b c "Jack Sargeant wins Alyn and Deeside by-election". BBC News. 7 February 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  8. ^ a b c "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.

External links[edit]