Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

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Various organisations have commissioned opinion polls for the next New Zealand general election to be conducted during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament (2017–present). Relative to previous electoral cycles, there have been very few polls conducted.[1] The remaining two polls are: Television New Zealand (1 News) Colmar Brunton and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research. The last Roy Morgan Research poll was released in November 2017. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 23 September 2017. The next general election will take place no later than Saturday, 21 November 2020.

Party vote and key events[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2017 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 23 September 2017. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2017 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).
Summary of poll results for political parties that received less than 5.0% of the party vote at the 2017 election (and are routinely included by polling companies). Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.5).

Individual polls[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size NAT LAB NZF GRN ACT TOP MRI NCP Lead
20–24 Jul 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,003 45 43 3.3 6 1 0.5 1.1 0.8 2
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,002 44 42 5 6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 2
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 37.4 50.8 2.8 6.2 0.8 0.1 0.5 1 13.4
30 May 2019 The 2019 Budget is delivered
6–10 Apr 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,009 40 48 4.3 6 0.7 0.5 0.4 8
15–23 Mar 2019 Business NZ Reid Research 1,000 41.3 49.6 2.3 3.9 8.3
15 Mar 2019 Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high.
9–13 Feb 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 42 45 3 6 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 3
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 41.6 47.5 2.9 5.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 5.9
24–28 Nov 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,008 46 43 4 5 0.6 0.3 0.9 3
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 43 45 5 7 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 2
2 Aug 2018 Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 45 42 5 6 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 3
21 Jun 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth to a girl. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[2] 45.1 42.6 2.4 5.7 0.2 1.6 0.9 1.1 2.5
19–23 May 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 45 43 4.2 5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 2
17 May 2018 The 2018 Budget is delivered
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 44 43 5 6 0.3 0.4 1.2 0.2 1
8 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party[3]
27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party[4]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 43 48 2.6 5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 5
13 Feb 2018 Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament[5]
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 44.5 42.3 3.8 6 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.3 2.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 46 39 5 7 0.1 1.2 0.9 7
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 40.5 39.5 5 10 0.5 2 1.5 1
26 Oct 2017 Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand[6]
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 46 31 6.5 11 0.5 2 1.5 15
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[7] N/A 44.4 36.9 7.2 6.3 0.5 2.4 1.2 0.2 7.6

UMR and Curia polls[edit]

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation NAT LAB GRN Lead
23 Jul 2019 UMR Research 38 42 9 4
9 Nov 2018 UMR Research 37 46 9
23 Sep 2017 2017 election result[7] 44.4 36.9 6.3 7.6

Preferred Prime Minister[edit]

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as Prime Minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

Individual polls[edit]

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Jacinda Ardern Simon Bridges Judith Collins Winston Peters James Shaw David Seymour Bill English Lead
20–24 Jul 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,003 41 6 6 2 0.4 0.2 35
4–8 Jun 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,002 45 5 6 5 0.1 0.5 0.1 39
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 49 4.2 7.1 41.9
6–10 Apr 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 51 5 5 3 0.2 0.2 0.3 46
9–13 Feb 2019 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 44 6 6 3 0.2 0.1 0.4 38
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019 Newshub Reid Research 1,000 41.8 5.0 6.2 35.6
24–28 Nov 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,008 39 7 6 4 0.1 0.1 0.4 32
15–19 Oct 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,006 42 7 5 4 0.1 1 35
2 Aug 2018 Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 40 10 2 5 0.3 0.2 0.9 30
21 Jun 2018 Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth to a girl. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[2] 40.2 9 3.7 4.6 4.2 31.2
19–23 May 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 12 2 4 0.2 0.1 0.9 29
7–11 Apr 2018 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 10 2 5 0.3 2 27
8 Apr 2018 Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party[3]
27 Feb 2018 Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party[4]
10–14 Feb 2018[nb 2] 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 41 1 0.4 4 0.4 0.1 20 21
18–28 Jan 2018 Newshub Reid Research 1,000[2] 37.9 0.5 - 5.7 0.1 25.7 12.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 37 0.3 0.7 5 0.4 28 9

Government direction[edit]

Individual polls[edit]

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Don't know Lead
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017 1 News Colmar Brunton 1,007 51 26 23 25
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 Roy Morgan Research 887 66.5 20 13.5 46.5
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017 Horizon Research 1,068 49 24 28 21
2–15 Oct 2017 Roy Morgan Research 894 58.5 27.5 14 31

Forecasts[edit]

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Labour retains Waiariki, Ross retains Botany, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[8] Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

Party 2017 election result Roy Morgan[9]
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017 poll
Radio NZ[10]
5 Jun 2018 poll of polls
Newshub Reid Research[11]
30 May – 7 Jun 2019 poll
1 News Colmar Brunton[12]
20 Jul – 24 Jul 2019 poll
National 56 51 57 47 57
Labour 46 49 54 64 55
NZ First 9 6 0 0 0
Green 8 13 8 8 7
ACT 1 1 1 1 1
Independent 0 0 0 0 0
Seats in Parliament 120 120 120 120 120
Overall result (majority) National–NZ First (65) Labour–Green (62) Labour–Green (62) Labour (64) Labour–Green (62)
Labour–Green–NZ First (63)
Note: Forecasted seats are currently calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
* indicates an overhang seat

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ a b 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff.
  2. ^ a b c Reid Research. "TV3 POLL RESULTS". Reid Research. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
  3. ^ a b "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub. 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
  4. ^ a b "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald. 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
  5. ^ "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub. 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
  6. ^ Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
  7. ^ a b "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
  8. ^ Harkanwal Singh (28 August 2017). "Herald election forecasts explained". The New Zealand Herald.
  9. ^ "New PM Jacinda Ardern drives surge in New Zealand Government Confidence". Roy Morgan. 22 November 2017.
  10. ^ Colin James (5 June 2018). "No Budget lift for Labour in polls but support for PM still strong". RNZ.
  11. ^ Tova O'Brien (9 June 2019). "Poll: National nosedives into dreaded 30s, could trigger leadership coup". Newshub.
  12. ^ Jessica Mutch McKay (24 July 2019). "Poll: National on top, NZ First drops in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll".