Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand general election
(Redirected from Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election)
Eight polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the 2026 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Radio New Zealand (RNZ) conducted by Reid Research,[1] along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar.[2] The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date. The parliament was elected on 14 October 2023, and the election is scheduled to be held on 7 November 2026.
Party vote
[edit]The parties shown in this section are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and the Opportunity Party (OPP), formerly known as The Opportunities Party (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this section.
Graphical summary
[edit]
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Table of polls
[edit]| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | OPP | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 Sep 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 25.9 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 |
| 27 Jul – 23 Aug 2026 | Roy Morgan | 858 | 31 | 24 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 7 |
| 14–21 Aug 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 29.1 | 32.2 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon survives a second party leadership vote.[3] | ||||||||||
| 8–11 Aug 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 847 | 29 | 30 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 1.1 | 8 | 2.7[b] | 1 |
| 1–11 Aug 2026 | Talbot Mills | 29 | 34 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 5.2 | – | 5 | |
| 1–4 Aug 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31 | 27.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 2.2[c] | 3.2 |
| 29 Jun – 26 Jul 2026 | Roy Morgan | 881 | 32 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 6.5 |
| 10–19 Jul 2026 | Talbot Mills | 31 | 33 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 4.7 | – | 2 | |
| 2–9 Jul 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 28.7 | 34 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 5.3 |
| 1–5 Jul 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 25 May – 21 Jun 2026 | Roy Morgan | 891 | 31 | 25.5 | 13.5 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 3 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 5.5 |
| 13–17 Jun 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 29 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 1.5[d] | 3 |
| 5–11 Jun 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,038 | 29 | 35 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 2 | – | 3 | 6 |
| 1–10 Jun 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 29 | 34 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 2.6 | 3.3 | – | 5 |
| 4–8 Jun 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.1 | 32.2 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 0.8[e] | 2.1 |
| 28 May 2026 | Budget 2026 is delivered. | ||||||||||
| 27 Apr – 24 May 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 30.5 | 26.5 | 12.5 | 10 | 11 | 2.5 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 May 2026 | Mariameno Kapa-Kingi exits Te Pāti Māori to start Te Tai Tokerau Party.[4] | ||||||||||
| 1–10 May 2026 | Talbot Mills | 29 | 36 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 2 | – | – | 7 | |
| 3–7 May 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30 | 31.9 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 3.3[f] | 1.9 |
| 30 Mar – 26 Apr 2026 | Roy Morgan | 887 | 25.5 | 34 | 11 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 8.5 |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Prime Minister and National Party leader Christopher Luxon survives a party leadership vote called by himself.[5] | ||||||||||
| 16 Apr 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,082 | 29 | 36 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 2.3 | – | 7 |
| 11–15 Apr 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,010 | 30 | 37 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 1.2[g] | 7 |
| 1–2 Apr 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29.8 | 33.4 | 7.8 | 9 | 13.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| 23 Feb – 22 Mar 2026 | Roy Morgan | 872 | 26.5 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0.5 | 7.5 |
| 12–20 Mar 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 30.8 | 35.6 | 10.1 | 7 | 10.6 | 3.2 | 2 | 0.7 | 4.8 |
| 2–12 Mar 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,059 | 32 | 35 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 1.7 | 2.4 | – | 3 |
| 1–3 Mar 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28.4 | 34.4 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 4.3[h] | 6 |
| 2 Mar 2026 | The Strait of Hormuz is closed as part of the Iran war, causing an incoming fuel crisis affecting New Zealand.[6] | ||||||||||
| 27 Jan – 22 Feb 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 31 | 30 | 14.5 | 8 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 0.5 | 1 |
| 6–12 Feb 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,039 | 30 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 2 | – | 3 | 7 |
| 7–11 Feb 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,003 | 34 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1.7[i] | 2 |
| 1–3 Feb 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.3 | 34.1 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 4.2[j] | 2.8 |
| 6–26 Jan 2026 | Roy Morgan | 881 | 34.5 | 30.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 9 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 4 |
| 16–26 Jan 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,087 | 31 | 35 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 3 | – | – | 4 |
| 15–22 Jan 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 31.9 | 35 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 3.1 |
| 21 Jan 2026 | Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces that the election will be held on 7 November 2026.[7] | ||||||||||
| 14–18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.5 | 34.4 | 7.7 | 7 | 11.9 | 3 | 0.7 | 3.8[k] | 2.9 |
| 25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 | Roy Morgan | 859 | 33 | 32.5 | 12 | 7.5 | 10 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.5 |
| 5–10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 30 | 38 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 2 | – | 4 | 8 |
| 5 Dec 2025 | Mariameno Kapa-Kingi reinstated as a member of Te Pāti Māori by the High Court.[8] | ||||||||||
| 3–7 Dec 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30 | 31.6 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 6[l] | 1.6 |
| 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,007 | 36 | 35 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.4[m] | 1 |
| 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 | Roy Morgan | 829 | 33 | 28 | 14.5 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 Nov 2025 | Qiulae Wong becomes leader of The Opportunity Party.[9] | ||||||||||
| 10 Nov 2025 | Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi are expelled from Te Pāti Māori.[10] | ||||||||||
| 1–10 Nov 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1000 | 33 | 38 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 2.4 | – | – | 5 |
| 2–6 Nov 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 30.2 | 33.3 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 5.1[n] | 3.1 |
| 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 | Roy Morgan | 857 | 32 | 30.5 | 12 | 8 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 1.5 |
| 1–10 Oct 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,097 | 29 | 35 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 4 | – | – | 6 |
| 4–8 Oct 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,014 | 34 | 32 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 2.4[o] | 2 |
| 3–8 Oct 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,050 | 31 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 3 | – | 2 | 3 |
| 1–5 Oct 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29.6 | 31.2 | 12 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 4[p] | 1.6 |
| 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 31.5 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 9 | 8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 |
| 4–12 Sep 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.5 | 34.3 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 1–10 Sep 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 31 | 35 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 4 | – | – | 4 |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Oriini Kaipara of Te Pāti Māori wins the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. | ||||||||||
| 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.1 | 33.8 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 2.2[q] | 0.7 |
| 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 | Roy Morgan | 873 | 29 | 34 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 3 | 0.5 | 5 |
| 1–10 Aug 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 32 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | – | 2 |
| 2–6 Aug 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34 | 33 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1[r] | 1 |
| 3–5 Aug 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.8 | 33.6 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.6[s] | 1.8 |
| 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 | Roy Morgan | 832 | 31 | 31 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 2 | Tie |
| 1–10 Jul 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,090 | 32 | 35 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 3.8 | – | – | 3 |
| 2–6 Jul 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.9 | 31.6 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.5[t] | 2.3 |
| 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 | Roy Morgan | 812 | 32 | 28.5 | 11 | 11.5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3.5 |
| 12–15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 32 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 2 | – | 4 | 2 |
| 7–9 Jun 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.5 | 34.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 3.2[u] | 1.3 |
| 31 May 2025 | David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First. | ||||||||||
| 23–30 May 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,008 | 30.7 | 33.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.1[v] | 2.5 |
| 24–28 May 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 3.9[w] | 5 |
| 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 | Roy Morgan | 799 | 31.5 | 29 | 11.5 | 12 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 |
| 22 May 2025 | Budget 2025 is delivered. | ||||||||||
| 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.6 | 33.2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 1.8[x] | 1.4 |
| 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 | Roy Morgan | 829 | 31 | 28.5 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 36 | 32 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.3[y] | 4 |
| 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.5 | 29.8 | 11 | 10 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 1.4[z] | 3.7 |
| 21–27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.9 | 32.3 | 10 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 5 | 1.8 | – | 0.6 |
| 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 32.5 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 7.5 | 7 | 5.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 5 |
| 1–10 Mar 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,003 | 31 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 6.1 | 4.4 | – | – | 3 |
| 2–4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.6 | 34.1 | 10 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 2.5[aa] | 0.5 |
| 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 30.5 | 29 | 15.5 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 34 | 33 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 3.6[ab] | 1 |
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 31.9 | 31.3 | 13.2 | 10 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 2.2[ac] | 0.6 |
| 7–27 Jan 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,049 | 33 | 34 | 12 | 9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | – | – | 1 |
| 2–26 Jan 2025 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 32.5 | 28.5 | 11.5 | 9 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 4 |
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29.6 | 30.9 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.7[ad] | 1.3 |
| 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 31 | 26 | 13.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 2.5 | 5 |
| 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,006 | 37 | 29 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 1.5 | 2[ae] | 8 |
| 1–3 Dec 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.2 | 26.9 | 8.3 | 13 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 2.2[af] | 7.3 |
| 22–28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 31 | 32 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 7 | – | – | 1 | |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 34 | 31 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | – | 3 |
| 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 28.5 | 28 | 13.5 | 9 | 6.5 | 9 | 3.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 10–19 Nov 2024 | Hīkoi mō te Tiriti protest against the Treaty Principles Bill. | ||||||||||
| 6–10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 38.8 | 31.5 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 7.3 |
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 34 | 33 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3.3 | – | – | 1 | |
| 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 31 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 5–9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 37 | 29 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.3[ag] | 8 |
| 3–7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.9 | 30.3 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 4.6 |
| 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 37.5 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14.5 |
| 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39 | 26.7 | 11 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 12.3 |
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 37 | 32 | 10 | 8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | – | – | 5 | |
| 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 36 | 26.5 | 13 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 9.5 |
| 10–14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 38 | 30 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 2.8[ah] | 8 |
| 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 32.5 | 24 | 14 | 11 | 6.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 8.5 |
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.6 | 25.9 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.8[ai] | 11.7 |
| 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 9 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 29 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.1[aj] | 9 |
| 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 35.4 | 29.4 | 12.7 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.4[ak] | 6 |
| 30 May 2024 | Budget 2024 is delivered. | ||||||||||
| 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 33.5 | 30 | 14 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 3 | 3 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 35 | 32 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 3 | |
| 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.3 | 30 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 3.1[al] | 7.3 |
| 30 Apr 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 34 | 33 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4 | – | – | 1 | |
| 20–24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 36 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 3.7[am] | 6 |
| 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 36.5 | 24.5 | 13 | 11 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 2–4 Apr 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.1 | 25.7 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 3[an] | 11.4 |
| 26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 38 | 23 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 15 |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 38 | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | – | – | – | 10 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[11] | ||||||||||
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 11.3 | 10 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 4[ao] | 12.1 |
| 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 35.5 | 21.5 | 15.5 | 12 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 14 |
| 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.6[ap] | 10 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 38 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | – | 9 | |
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.6 | 27.9 | 9 | 13.7 | 5 | 2.3 | – | 2.5 | 11.7 |
| 30 Jan 2024 | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024.[12] | ||||||||||
| 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 22 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 16 |
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 41 | 28.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | – | – | 12.6 |
| 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 36 | 22 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | 36.5 | 28.8 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5 | – | 4.6 | 7.7 | |
| 3 Dec 2023 | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party.[13] | ||||||||||
| 27 Nov 2023 | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | ||||||||||
| 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 37.5 | 21 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5[aq] | 16.5 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 37 | 28.3 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.7[ar] | 8.7 |
| 14 Oct 2023 | 2023 election result | N/A | 38.08 | 26.92 | 11.61 | 8.64 | 6.09 | 3.08 | 2.22 | 3.36 | 11.16 |
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | OPP | Others | Lead |
General electorates
[edit]Auckland Central
[edit]| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | GRN | NAT | LAB | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–29 Jul 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia (party name for electorate only)[14] | 400 | 25 | 30 | 24 | 5 | |
| 14 Oct 2023 | 2023 election result | N/A | 47.84 | 36.63 | 7.50 | 11.21 | |
| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | GRN | LAB | ACT | NZF | OPP | TPM | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–29 Jul 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia[14] | 400 | 28 | 24 | 28 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 2 | Tie |
| 14 Oct 2023 | 2023 election result | N/A | 33.13 | 23.97 | 22.63 | 9.30 | 3.80 | 3.52 | 1.58 | 9.16 |
Kāpiti
[edit]| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | OPP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29-31 Jul 2026 | Community Engagement Limited[15] | 821 | 33.6 | 37.5 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Date | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | NZF | OPP | ACT | TPM | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29–31 Jul 2026 | Community Engagement Limited[15] | 821 | 24.1 | 31.5 | 14 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 7.4 |
Preferred prime minister
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]
Preferred prime minister polling table
[edit]| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Luxon | Hipkins | Swarbrick | Seymour | Peters | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 Sep 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21.2 | 16.9 | 7 | 7.8 | 10.7 | 4.3 | |||
| 14–21 Aug 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 19.9 | 21.3 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 1.4 | |||
| 8–11 Aug 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 847 | 17 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1–11 Aug 2026 | Talbot Mills | 22 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 1 | ||||
| 1–4 Aug 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 23.2 | 19.8 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 10.5 | 3.4 | |||
| 2–9 Jul 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 20 | 23.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 13.2 | 3.9 | |||
| 1–5 Jul 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 0.1 | |||
| 13–17 Jun 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 5–11 Jun 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,038 | 37 | 44 | – | – | – | 7 | |||
| 1–10 Jun 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 20 | 21 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 1 | |||
| 4–8 Jun 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 18.8 | 17.1 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 12.8 | 1.7 | |||
| 1–10 May 2026 | Talbot Mills | 20 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 3 | ||||
| 3–7 May 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21.5 | 19 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 11.6 | 2.5 | |||
| 16 Apr 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,082 | 20 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 3 | |||
| 11–15 Apr 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,010 | 16 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 3 | |||
| 1–2 Apr 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.5 | 21.7 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 12.1 | 1.2 | |||
| 12–20 Mar 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 17.3 | 20.7 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 13.1 | 3.4 | |||
| 2–12 Mar 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,059 | 22 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 4 | |||
| 1–3 Mar 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21 | 22.7 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 10.4 | 1.7 | |||
| 6–12 Feb 2026 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,039 | 34 | 46 | – | – | – | 12 | |||
| 7–11 Feb 2026 | 1 News–Verian | 1,003 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 10 | Tie | |||
| 1–3 Feb 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 22 | 18 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 12.5 | 4 | |||
| 15–22 Jan 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 19.4 | 21.1 | 6 | 6.7 | 12.6 | 0.7 | |||
| 14–18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.5 | 18 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 1.5 | |||
| 5–10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 39 | 45 | – | – | – | 6 | |||
| 3–7 Dec 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.7 | 17.8 | 7.6 | 6 | 8.5 | 1.9 | |||
| 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,007 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 1–10 Nov 2025 | Talbot Mills | 22 | 26 | – | – | – | 4 | ||||
| 2–6 Nov 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.8 | 20.6 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 0.2 | |||
| 1–10 Oct 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,097 | 21 | 24 | – | – | – | 3 | |||
| 4–8 Oct 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,014 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3–8 Oct 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,050 | 36 | 45 | – | – | – | 9 | |||
| 1–5 Oct 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.8 | 20.9 | 6.3 | 4 | 9.9 | 1.1 | |||
| 4–12 Sep 2025 | RNZ-Reid Research | 1,000 | 19.6 | 23 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 3.4 | |||
| 1–10 Sep 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 20 | 25 | – | – | – | 5 | |||
| 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21.7 | 17.7 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 10.9 | 4 | |||
| 1–10 Aug 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,000 | 21 | 26 | – | – | – | 5 | |||
| 2–6 Aug 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3–5 Aug 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 8 | 6.2 | 8.2 | Tie | |||
| 1–10 Jul 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,090 | 24 | 24 | – | – | – | Tie | |||
| 2–6 Jul 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 7 | 5.7 | 9.3 | 0.1 | |||
| 12–15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 37 | 43 | – | – | – | 6 | |||
| 7–9 Jun 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.3 | 18.5 | 5.6 | 6 | 8 | 1.8 | |||
| 31 May 2025 | David Seymour of the ACT party becomes Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Winston Peters of NZ First. | ||||||||||
| 23–30 May 2025 | RNZ-Reid Research | 1,008 | 18.8 | 23.2 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 4.4 | |||
| 24–28 May 2025 | 1 News-Verian | 1,002 | 23 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | |||
| 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 24.5 | 20 | 5 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | |||
| 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 23 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 21.9 | 18.9 | 4.2 | 8 | 12.8 | 3 | |||
| 21–27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 21.9 | 20.9 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 1 | |||
| 1–10 Mar 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,003 | 21 | 24 | – | – | – | 3 | |||
| 2–4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.3 | 20.7 | 4.8 | 5 | 8.6 | 0.4 | |||
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 22 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |||
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 20.7 | 17.6 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 8 | 3.1 | |||
| 7–27 Jan 2025 | Talbot Mills | 1,049 | 24 | 25 | – | – | – | 1 | |||
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 24.5 | 15.3 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 9.2 | |||
| 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,006 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 9 | |||
| 1–3 Dec 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.1 | 19.9 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 7.2 | |||
| 22–28 Nov 2024 | Labour–Talbot Mills | 22.1 | 22.7 | – | – | – | 0.6 | ||||
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 41 | 42 | – | – | – | 1 | |||
| 6–10 Nov 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 26.5 | 15.5 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 11 | |||
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 25 | 23 | – | – | – | 2 | ||||
| 5–9 Oct 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 3–7 Oct 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27.7 | 16.9 | 9.9 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 10.8 | |||
| 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32.7 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 20.1 | |||
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 26 | 22 | – | – | – | 4 | ||||
| 10–14 Aug 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,001 | 28 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 10 | |||
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.5 | 18.7 | 10.9 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 15.8 | |||
| 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 23 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | |||
| 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 25.4 | 20.2 | 8.6 | 5 | 3.8 | 5.2 | |||
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 25 | 25 | – | – | – | Tie | ||||
| 20–24 Apr 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | |||
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[11] | ||||||||||
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 24 | 23 | – | – | – | 1 | |||
| 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 27 | 23 | – | – | – | 4 | ||||
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 31 | 13 | – | – | – | 18 | |||
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | 30 | 22 | – | – | – | 8 | ||||
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33 | 18 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | |||
Leadership approval rating
[edit]| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxon | Hipkins | Seymour | Peters | |||||||||||
| Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
| 1–4 Aug 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | -19 | -7 | -24 | -16 | ||||||||
| 4–8 Jun 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | -19 | -7 | -18 | -5 | ||||||||
| 1–3 Mar 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 27% | 46% | -19 | 36% | 41% | -5 | – | 35% | 43% | -8 | ||
| 1–3 Feb 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29% | 45% | -16 | 31% | 39% | -8 | 25% | 53% | -28 | 34% | 40% | -7 |
| 14–18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 28% | 44% | -17 | 33% | 37% | -4 | 23% | 47% | -24 | 35% | 41% | -6 |
| 5–10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 34% | 45% | –11 | 39% | 33% | +7 | 28% | 44% | –15 | 36% | 36% | = |
| 3–7 Dec 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –13 | –7 | –24 | –2 | ||||||||
| 2–6 Nov 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –10 | –2 | –11 | +2 | ||||||||
| 4–8 Oct 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,014 | 38% | 52% | –14 | 42% | 41% | +1 | – | – | ||||
| 3–8 Oct 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,050 | 27% | 51% | –24 | = | –27 | –6 | ||||||
| 4–12 Sep 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | –15.2 | +3 | – | – | ||||||||
| 12–15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 31% | 49% | –18 | 36% | 32% | +4 | –12 | –11 | ||||
| 7–9 Jun 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –8.6 | +3.2 | –17.6 | +1 | ||||||||
| 23–30 May 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,008 | 35.7% | 45.5% | –9.8 | 39.1 | 34% | +5.1 | – | – | ||||
| 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,000 | 40% | 47% | –7 | 49% | 33% | +16 | – | – | ||||
| 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –6 | +2 | –18 | –4 | ||||||||
| 2–4 Mar 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –10 | +4 | –28 | –1 | ||||||||
| 21–27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | –3.9 | +12.3 | – | – | ||||||||
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 29% | 46% | –16 | 34% | 34% | = | 23% | 47% | –24 | 25% | 46% | –22 |
| 8–10 Sep 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 41% | 34% | +7 | 31% | 41% | –10 | –14 | –9 | ||||
| 15–19 Jun 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 40% | 45% | –5 | 47% | 34% | +13 | – | – | ||||
| 4–6 Jun 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | –5 | +3 | –18 | –19 | ||||||||
| 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | +8 | -1 | –7 | –5 | ||||||||
| 2–4 Apr 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | -7 | -6 | –11 | –18 | ||||||||
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39% | 44% | -5 | 40% | 38% | +2 | –8 | –12 | ||||
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 44% | 33% | +11 | 40% | 35% | +4 | –8 | –22 | ||||
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 42% | 37% | +5 | 37% | 34% | +3 | –14 | –24 | ||||
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | 39% | 40% | -1 | 42% | 33% | +9 | –19 | –36 | |||||
Government approval rating
[edit]| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Right direction | Wrong direction | Do not know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul – 23 Aug 2026 | Roy Morgan | 858 | 35 | 53.5 | 11.5 | 18.5 |
| 14–21 Aug 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 30.8 | 51.8 | 17.4 | 21 |
| 29 Jun – 26 Jul 2026 | Roy Morgan | 881 | 35.5 | 50.5 | 14 | 15 |
| 2–9 Jul 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 34.7 | 46.5 | 18.7 | 11.8 |
| 25 May – 21 Jun 2026 | Roy Morgan | 891 | 37 | 49 | 14 | 12 |
| 1–10 Jun 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,021 | 41 | 49 | 10 | 8 |
| 27 Apr – 24 May 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 36.5 | 52 | 11.5 | 15.5 |
| 30 Mar – 26 Apr 2026 | Roy Morgan | 887 | 31.5 | 56 | 12.5 | 24.5 |
| 23 Feb – 22 Mar 2026 | Roy Morgan | 872 | 34 | 56 | 10 | 22 |
| 12–20 Mar 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 32.3 | 50 | 17.7 | 17.7 |
| 2–12 Mar 2026 | Talbot Mills | 1,059 | 46 | 44 | 10 | 2 |
| 27 Jan – 22 Feb 2026 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 36.5 | 52 | 11.5 | 15.5 |
| 6–26 Jan 2026 | Roy Morgan | 881 | 36.5 | 51.6 | 12 | 15.1 |
| 15–22 Jan 2026 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 36.3 | 46.6 | 17 | 10.3 |
| 14–18 Jan 2026 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 32.6 | 49 | 18.4 | 16.4 |
| 24 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 | Roy Morgan | 859 | 37 | 52 | 11 | 15 |
| 5–10 Dec 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,031 | 33 | 52 | 15 | 19 |
| 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 | Roy Morgan | 870 | 39 | 49.5 | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| 4–12 Sep 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 34 | 48.9 | 17.1 | 14.9 |
| 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 | Roy Morgan | 873 | 37 | 53.5 | 9.5 | 16.5 |
| 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 | Roy Morgan | 832 | 37 | 53.5 | 9.5 | 16.5 |
| 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 | Roy Morgan | 812 | 41 | 46 | 13 | 5 |
| 12–15 Jun 2025 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 35 | 49 | 16 | 14 |
| 23–30 May 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,008 | 37.8 | 46.6 | 15.6 | 8.8 |
| 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 | Roy Morgan | 799 | 35 | 54.5 | 10.5 | 19.5 |
| 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33.3 | 46 | 20.7 | 12.7 |
| 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 | Roy Morgan | 829 | 40.5 | 43 | 13.5 | 2.5 |
| 21–27 Mar 2025 | RNZ–Reid Research | 1,000 | 43.5 | 40.6 | 15.8 | 2.9 |
| 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 32.5 | 52.5 | 15 | 20 |
| 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 | Roy Morgan | 888 | 39 | 49 | 12 | 10 |
| 3–7 Feb 2025 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 39 | 50 | 11 | 11 |
| 2–4 Feb 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 34.2 | 50 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| 2–26 Jan 2025 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 37.5 | 48.5 | 14 | 11 |
| 9–13 Jan 2025 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39 | 53 | 12 | 14 |
| 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 | Roy Morgan | 885 | 35 | 52.5 | 12.5 | 17.5 |
| 26–27 Nov 2024 | The Post/Freshwater Strategy | 1,150 | 35 | 48 | 17 | 13 |
| 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 | Roy Morgan | 866 | 46.5 | 42.5 | 11 | 4 |
| 1–10 Nov 2024 | Talbot Mills | 40 | 46 | 14 | 6 | |
| 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 | Roy Morgan | 883 | 36.5 | 50.5 | 13 | 14 |
| 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 | Roy Morgan | 902 | 39 | 46.5 | 14.5 | 7.5 |
| 1–10 Sep 2024 | Talbot Mills | 42 | 47 | 11 | 5 | |
| 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 | Roy Morgan | 898 | 43 | 45.5 | 11.5 | 2.5 |
| 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 38 | 48 | 14 | 10 |
| 4–8 Jul 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 47.3 | 33.9 | 18.8 | 13.4 |
| 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 | Roy Morgan | 930 | 35.5 | 52.5 | 12 | 17 |
| 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 | Roy Morgan | 925 | 43 | 47 | 10 | 4 |
| 1–10 May 2024 | Talbot Mills | 38 | 52 | 10 | 14 | |
| 5–7 May 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 45.1 | 42.6 | 12.3 | 2.5 |
| 25 Mar–21 Apr 2024 | Roy Morgan | 934 | 34.5 | 49 | 16.5 | 14.5 |
| 26 Feb–24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 35 | 54 | 11 | 19 |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 40 | 48 | 12 | 8 |
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.5 | 43.4 | 17 | 3.9 |
| 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 41.5 | 43.5 | 15 | 2 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 43 | 41 | 16 | 2 | |
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.7 | 35.2 | 25.1 | 4.5 |
| 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 42 | 41 | 17 | 1 |
| 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 45 | 17 | 7 |
| 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 36.5 | 46 | 17.5 | 9.5 |
| 9–12 Nov 2023 | Guardian Essential | 1,193 | 29 | 48 | 23 | 19 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 49 | 22 | 20 |
Forecasts
[edit]The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains their Māori electorates, etc). However, projections that show the National Party winning fewer than 44 total seats (44 being the number of electorate seats currently held by National) assume that National will lose enough electorates to avoid an overhang, and most projections assume that Te Pāti Māori will retain Hauraki-Waikato, Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru, and Waiariki, but not Te Tai Tokerau or Te Tai Tonga (the latter two seats are held by MPs who are no longer part of Te Pāti Māori). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats. When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 New Zealand general election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[16]
| Pollster Date |
Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | OPP | Total | ||
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[17] 1–3 Sep 2026 |
39 | 34 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[18] 27 Jul – 23 Aug 2026 |
37 | 29 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 4** | 11 | 122 | Labour–Greens–Opportunity–Māori (63) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[19] 14–21 Aug 2026 |
35 | 39 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Opportunity–Māori (61) |
| 1News-Verian [20] 8–11 Aug 2026 |
36 | 37 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 4*** | 10 | 123 | Labour–Greens–Opportunity (62) |
| Talbot Mills[21] 1–11 Aug 2026 |
35 | 41 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Opportunity–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[22] 1–4 Aug 2026 |
40 | 36 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 4** | 8 | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[23] 29 Jun – 26 Jul 2026 |
40 | 31 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 4** | 10 | 122 | Labour–Greens–Opportunity–Māori (62) |
| Talbot Mills[24] 10–19 Jul 2026 |
39 | 42 | 11 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[25] 2–9 Jul 2026 |
36 | 43 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[26] 1–5 Jul 2026 |
39 | 41 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[27] 25 May – 21 Jun 2026 |
37 | 31 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[28] 13–17 Jun 2026 |
38 | 41 | 17 | 8 | 14 | 4** | 0 | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| The Post/Freshwater Strategy[29] 5–11 Jun 2026 |
36 | 44 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| Talbot Mills[30] 1–10 Jun 2026 |
36 | 42 | 16 | 8 | 15 | 4* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[31] 4–8 Jun 2026 |
38 | 40 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[32] 27 Apr – 24 May 2026 |
37 | 33 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 5** | 7 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Talbot Mills[33] 1–10 May 2026 |
36 | 45 | 11 | 9 | 17 | 5*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[34] 3–7 May 2026 |
39 | 41 | 12 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[35] 30 Mar – 26 Apr 2026 |
32 | 43 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 5* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Talbot Mills[36] 16 Apr 2026 |
36 | 44 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 5*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| 1 News–Verian[37] 11–15 Apr 2026 |
37 | 46 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 5*** | 0 | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (65) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[38] 1–2 Apr 2026 |
37 | 42 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 5** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[39] 23 Feb – 22 Mar 2026 |
33 | 43 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 5* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[40] 12–20 Mar 2026 |
38 | 44 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 5* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[41] 2–12 Mar 2026 |
39 | 43 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 5*** | 0 | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[42] 1–3 Mar 2026 |
36 | 44 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[43] 27 Jan – 22 Feb 2026 |
39 | 38 | 18 | 10 | 12 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| The Post/ 6–12 Feb 2026 |
38 | 46 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 4** | 0 | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian[45] 7–11 Feb 2026 |
42 | 39 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 4** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[46] 1–3 Feb 2026 |
39 | 43 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[47] 6–26 Jan 2026 |
43 | 38 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[48] 15–22 Jan 2026 |
40 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[49] 14–18 Jan 2026 |
39 | 43 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[50] 25 Nov – 21 Dec 2025 |
41 | 40 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| The Post/ 5–10 Dec 2025 |
38 | 48 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[52] 29 Nov–3 Dec 2025 |
44 | 43 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 4*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[53] 27 Oct – 23 Nov 2025 |
42 | 36 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 4* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[54] 1–10 Nov 2025 |
40 | 47 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 4* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[55] 2–6 Nov 2025 |
39 | 42 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[56] 29 Sep – 26 Oct 2025 |
41 | 39 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[57] 1–10 Oct 2025 |
35 | 43 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[58] 4–8 Oct 2025 |
42 | 40 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| The Post/ 3–8 Oct 2025 |
38 | 42 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[60] 1–5 Oct 2025 |
38 | 40 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[61] 25 Aug – 21 Sep 2025 |
39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| RNZ–Reid Research[62] 4–12 Sep 2025 |
40 | 42 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[63] 1–10 Sep 2025 |
39 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[64] 31 Aug – 2 Sep 2025 |
42 | 42 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[65] 28 Jul – 24 Aug 2025 |
36 | 42 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | Labour–Greens–Māori (65) |
| Talbot Mills[66] 1–10 Aug 2025 |
39 | 42 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[67] 2–6 Aug 2025 |
42 | 40 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[68] 3–5 Aug 2025 |
40 | 43 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 6** | 0 | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Roy Morgan[69] 30 Jun – 27 Jul 2025 |
38 | 39 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Talbot Mills[70] 1–10 Jul 2025 |
39 | 42 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[71] 2–6 Jul 2025 |
42 | 39 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[72] 26 May – 22 Jun 2025 |
40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[73] 7–9 Jun 2025 |
42 | 44 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[74] 23–30 May 2025 |
38 | 42 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| 1 News–Verian[75] 24–28 May 2025 |
43 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[76] 28 Apr – 25 May 2025 |
40 | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[77] 30 Apr – 4 May 2025 |
42 | 41 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[78] 24 Mar – 20 Apr 2025 |
39 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[79] 29 Mar – 2 Apr 2025 |
44 | 40 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[80] 29 Mar – 1 Apr 2025 |
42 | 37 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| RNZ–Reid Research[81] 21–27 Mar 2025 |
41 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[82] 24 Feb – 23 Mar 2025 |
41 | 35 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 120 | Hung parliament |
| Talbot Mills[83] 1–10 Mar 2025 |
39 | 43 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[84] 2–4 Mar 2025 |
42 | 42 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| Roy Morgan[85] 27 Jan – 23 Feb 2025 |
38 | 36 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[86] 3–7 Feb 2025 |
43 | 42 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[87] 2–4 Feb 2025 |
39 | 39 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Talbot Mills[88] 7–27 Jan 2025 |
40 | 42 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (63) |
| Roy Morgan[89] 2–26 Jan 2025 |
40 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[90] 9–13 Jan 2025 |
38 | 39 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| Roy Morgan[91] 25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 |
39 | 32 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 1 News–Verian[92] 30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 |
46 | 36 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[93] 1–3 Dec 2024 |
44 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT (61) |
| Labour–Talbot Mills[94] 22–28 Nov 2024 |
39 | 40 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| The Post/ 26–27 Nov 2024 |
42 | 39 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| Roy Morgan[96] 28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 |
37 | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[97] 6–10 Nov 2024 |
48 | 39 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[98] 1–10 Nov 2024 |
42 | 41 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[99] 23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 |
39 | 37 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 120 | Labour–Greens–Māori (61) |
| 1 News–Verian[100] 5–9 Oct 2024 |
47 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[101] 3–7 Oct 2024 |
44 | 38 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Roy Morgan[102] 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 |
47 | 29 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[103] 8–10 Sep 2024 |
48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Talbot Mills[104] 1–10 Sep 2024 |
46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[105] 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 |
45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| 1 News–Verian[106] 10–14 Aug 2024 |
49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[107] 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 |
41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[108] 4–8 Jul 2024 |
47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
| Roy Morgan[109] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 |
44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[110] 15–19 Jun 2024 |
47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[111] 4–6 Jun 2024 |
44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 0 | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
| Roy Morgan[112] 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 |
42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 0 | 122 | Hung parliament |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[113] 5–7 May 2024 |
47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Talbot Mills[114] 30 Apr 2024 |
42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
| 1 News–Verian[115] 20–24 Apr 2024 |
48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 0 | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
| Roy Morgan[116] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 |
45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[117] 2–4 Apr 2024 |
47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[118] 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 |
45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| Talbot Mills[119] 1–10 Feb 2024 |
47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[120] 1–7 Feb 2024 |
49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 0 | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
| Roy Morgan[121] 8–28 Jan 2024 |
49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Roy Morgan[122] Dec 2023 poll |
46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
| Curia[123] 3–5 Dec 2023 poll |
46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 120 | National–ACT-NZ First (64) |
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[124] 1–6 Nov 2023 poll |
46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result[125] 14 Oct 2023 |
48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 0 | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- * indicates an overhang seat
- ↑ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- 1 2 3 4 5 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
- ↑ New Zealand Loyal 0.6%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
Women's Rights Party 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
Free Palestine Party 0.3%
Te Tai Tokerau Party 0.2%
Animal Justice Party 0.1%
New Conservatives Party 0.1% - ↑ Women's Rights Party 1.4%
New Conservatives Party 0.4%
Vision NZ 0.3%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1% - ↑ Animal Justice Party 0.6%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
Women's Rights Party 0.2%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.3%
Vision NZ 0.3%
New Conservatives Party 0.2% - ↑ New Conservatives Party 0.8%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.5%
Vision NZ 0.3% - ↑ New Conservatives Party 0.5%
Animal Justice Party 0.4%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.3% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.7%
New Conservatives Party 0.8%
Vision NZ 0.2% - ↑ Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.4%
NewZeal 0.4%
Women's Rights Party 0.3%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
Vision NZ 0%
Animal Justice Party 0.1% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.2%
New Conservatives Party 0.1%
Vision NZ 0.4% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.6%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
Vision NZ 0.3% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1%
New Conservatives Party 1%
Vision NZ 0.3% - ↑ Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.4%
Women's Rights Party 0.2%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
New Conservatives Party 0.1%
NewZeal 0.1%
Vision NZ 0%
Animal Justice Party 0% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.5%
New Conservatives Party 1.2%
Vision NZ 0.4% - ↑ Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
Women's Rights Party 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
NewZeal 0.2%
Vision NZ 0.2%
Animal Justice Party 0.1% - ↑ Freedoms New Zealand 2.3%
New Zealand Loyal 1%
Vision NZ 0.6% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.8%
Vision NZ 0.6%
New Conservatives Party 0.3% - ↑ NewZeal 0.4%
Women's Rights Party 0.4%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
Animal Justice Party 0.1%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
Vision NZ 0.4% - ↑ New Conservatives Party 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
New Conservatives Party 0.7%
Vision NZ 0.6% - ↑ New Conservatives Party 0.8%
- ↑ NewZeal 1.3% NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1% Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.6% New Conservatives Party 0.4% Vision NZ 0.2% Animal Justice Party 0.1%
- ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
Vision NZ 0.4% - ↑ Freedoms New Zealand 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
Vision NZ 0.2%
Animal Justice Party 0.2% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1%
New Conservatives Party 0.4% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.6%
Vision NZ 0.4% - ↑ Freedoms New Zealand 1%
Women's Rights Party 1%
Vision NZ 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.3%
Animal Justice Party 0.2%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
NewZeal 0.2%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
New Nation Party 0.1% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.9%
New Conservatives Party 0.2% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.7%
Vision NZ 0.6% - ↑ Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
New Conservatives Party 0.4%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.3%
New Nation Party 0.3%
Vision NZ 0.3%
Women's Rights Party 0.2%
NewZeal 0.1% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 2%
Vision NZ 0.2% - ↑ NewZeal 0.6%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.4%
Animal Justice Party 0.3%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
New Nation Party 0.2%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.2%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
Vision NZ 0.2% - ↑ NewZeal 0.7%
New Conservatives Party 0.5%
Animal Justice Party 0.3%
DemocracyNZ 0.2%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.2%
Democratic Alliance 0.1%
Women's Rights Party 0.1%
New Nation Party 0.1%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.1%
Others 0.4% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.0%
Others 0.8% - ↑ New Nation Party 0.6%
Animal Justice Party 0.5%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
Vision NZ 0.2%
New Zealand Loyal 0.2%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.1%
New Conservatives Party 0.1%
NewZeal 0.1%
Women's Rights Party 0.1% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.3%
Vision NZ 0.5%
New Conservatives Party 0.1%
Others 0.5% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
Others 2.0% - ↑ New Zealand Loyal 0.9%
NewZeal 0.6%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
New Nation Party 0.4%
Freedoms New Zealand 0.3%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
Animal Justice Party 0.2%
DemocracyNZ 0.2%
Vision NZ 0.1%
Others 0.2% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.5%
DemocracyNZ 0.3%
Vision NZ 0.2%
New Conservatives Party 0.2%
Others 0.8% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.3%
Vision NZ 0.8%
DemocracyNZ 0.4%
Others 1.5% - ↑ NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
New Zealand Loyal 0.4%
Animal Justice Party 0.3%
New Conservatives Party 0.3%
Women's Rights Party 0.3%
NewZeal 0.3%
DemocracyNZ 0.3%
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
Vision NZ 0.1%
Others 0.1% - ↑ New Conservatives Party 0.5%
Others 2% - ↑ New Conservatives Party 0.7%
Vision NZ 0.3%
References
[edit]- ↑ "RNZ to run new series of political polls". RNZ. 21 March 2025. Retrieved 23 March 2025.
- ↑ Mills, Ian; Lowe, Geoff (20 August 2024). "Update from RANZ Chair on membership resignation by Curia Market Research". Research Association of New Zealand.
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- ↑ Giles Dexter (11 May 2026). "Te Pāti Māori splits as MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi announces new Te Tai Tokerau Party". Radio NZ. Retrieved 12 June 2026.
- ↑ "As it happened: Christopher Luxon survives National leadership vote, refuses to take questions". Radio NZ. 21 April 2026. Retrieved 21 April 2026.
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- ↑ "NZ Prime Minister Christopher Luxon calls for election on November 7". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
- ↑ Hanly, Lillian; reporter, Political (5 December 2025). "Mariameno Kapa-Kingi reinstated as a member of Te Pāti Māori in interim High Court ruling". RNZ. Retrieved 21 January 2026.
- ↑ "Qiulae Wong named as new leader of Opportunity party". Radio New Zealand. Retrieved 23 November 2025.
- ↑ O'Brien, Tova; McConnell, Glenn (10 November 2025). "Te Pāti Māori expels Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākuta Ferris". Stuff. Retrieved 10 November 2025.
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- ↑ Gill, Sinead (3 December 2023). "TOP leader Raf Manji resigns". The Post.
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- ↑ Day, Tom (10 February 2025). "Poll: Left bloc could form govt as National slides". 1 News. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
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- ↑ Whyte, Anna (4 February 2025). "Another poll puts Labour support ahead of National". The Post. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Support for National-led Government down in January although support for National increases". Roy Morgan. 4 February 2025. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: January 2025". Taxpayers' Union. 17 January 2025.
- ↑ "Support for National-led Government increases in December with National, ACT and NZ First all up". Roy Morgan. 21 January 2025. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Day, Tom (9 December 2024). "Poll: Record high for Te Pāti Māori, coalition still in driving seat". 1 News. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: December 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Witton, Bridie (1 December 2024). "Labour pulls ahead of National in internal polling, as Hipkins plans tax pitch". Stuff. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Vance, Andrea (2 December 2024). "New poll delivers hung Parliament, bad news for Christopher Luxon as preferred PM". Stuff. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National support down again in November as Government seeks to redefine the Treaty of Waitangi". Roy Morgan. 3 December 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (22 November 2024). "Hīkoi's influence will be felt for years, but Treaty bill still popular - Thomas Couglan". NZ Herald. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National support down significantly in October after the sinking of HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa". Roy Morgan. 6 November 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Desmarais, Felix (14 October 2024). "Poll: Coalition remain in front, but Labour gain seats". 1 News. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National support up in September as National-led Government increases lead to 14% points after RBNZ cut interest ratess". Roy Morgan. 8 October 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Ensor, Jamie (19 September 2024). "New poll results show closer fight between Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon for preferred Prime Minister". NZ Herald. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National support up in August as National-led Government increases lead to 10% points and RBNZ cut interest rates". Roy Morgan. 3 September 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Desmarais, Felix (19 August 2024). "Poll: Voters warming to Luxon as PM, party votes hold firm". 1 News. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National support lowest since the election but Labour support also down as support for minor parties increases in July". Roy Morgan. 6 August 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: July 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National support increases marginally in June as support for Labour slumps back below 30%". Roy Morgan. 2 July 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Desmarais, Felix (25 June 2024). "Poll: Government coalition makes up lost ground as NZ First lifts". 1 News. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: June 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Prime Minister Luxon's honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April". Roy Morgan. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Edwards, Bryce (1 May 2024). "Political Roundup: Discontent and gloom dominate NZ's political mood". NZ Herald. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Desmarais, Felix (29 April 2024). "Poll: Labour could return to power if election held today". 1 News. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April". Roy Morgan. 30 April 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (55%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 41% – now at 14% points". Roy Morgan. 8 March 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (16 February 2024). "National extends lead in latest Talbot-Mills poll, Chris Hipkins falls". New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2024". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (51.5%) strengthen lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42%". Roy Morgan. 9 February 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First with majority support of 51.5% ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42.5%". Roy Morgan. 30 January 2024. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (12 December 2023). "Support for Christopher Luxon drops, NZ First overtakes Act in new poll". New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 9 November 2023. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
- ↑ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023. Retrieved 31 July 2026.
