Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

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Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The two regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Colmar Brunton, and monthly polls by Roy Morgan Research, with less frequent polls from MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on 17 October 2020. The next general election must take place no later than 13 January 2024,[1] however it is expected that the next election will take place in 2023.[2][3]

Party vote[edit]

Nationwide polling[edit]

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Smoothing is set to span 65%.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT, Māori (MRI), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), and New Conservative (NCP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT GRN ACT MRI NZF TOP NCP Lead
2 Dec 2021 New Zealand shifts from the COVID-19 alert level system to the new COVID-19 Protection Framework system.
25 Nov 2021 Judith Collins is removed as National Party leader in a vote of no confidence. Shane Reti is made interim leader until a leadership election takes place.
10–17 Nov 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 42.7 26.9 7.2 16 2.1 2.5 1.2 0.9 15.8
6–10 Nov 2021 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,001 41 28 9 14 0.9 3.3 1.2 1.0 13
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021 Roy Morgan 929 39.5 26 10.5 16 2 2.5 1 1.5 13.5
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021 Roy Morgan 940 45.5 23 9.5 16 2 1.5 1.5 22.5
22–26 Sep 2021 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,001 43 26 8 14 2.1 2.5 1.2 1.3 17
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021 Roy Morgan 940 39.5 25 12 13 2.5 2.5 2 14.5
17 Aug 2021 Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Delta variant being detected in the community.
22–29 Jul 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 43.0 28.7 8.5 11.1 1.9 3.4 0.8 1.6 14.3
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021 Roy Morgan 945 39.5 29 10 13 2.5 2 3 10.5
31 May – 27 Jun 2021 Roy Morgan 927 38.5 29.5 12.5 11.5 2.5 1.5 2 9
22–26 May 2021 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,002 46 29 8 9 1.8 1.2 1.8 1.5 17
26 Apr – 23 May 2021 Roy Morgan 932 45 28.5 11 9 1.5 2 1.5 16.5
20 May 2021 The 2021 Budget is delivered.
7–13 May 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 52.7 27.0 7.1 6.9 1.2 1.9 1.3 1.2 25.7
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021 Roy Morgan 933 41.5 29.5 13.5 9 2.5 1 0.5 12
21–28 Mar 2021 Roy Morgan 924 45.5 23 12 11 1 2.5 2 22.5
9–13 Mar 2021 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 49 27 9 8 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.4 22
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 Roy Morgan 924 45 29 13.5 7.5 1 1.5 1 16
4–24 Jan 2021 Roy Morgan 937 47 25 11.5 9 2 2 1.5 22
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020 Roy Morgan 923 44 28 10.5 10 2 2 2 16
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,004 53 25 8 8 1.5 1.6 0.5 1.1 28
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020 Roy Morgan 939 44 25.5 12.5 10.5 1.5 1 2 18.5
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result[4] N/A 50.0 25.6 7.9 7.6 1.2 2.6 1.5 1.5 24.4
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size LAB NAT GRN ACT MRI NZF TOP NCP Lead

Private polling[edit]

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally, conducted for use by Labour (by Talbot Mills, previously called UMR) and National (by Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their methodology details are not publicly available.[dubious ]

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation LAB NAT GRN ACT MRI NZF Lead
1–8 Nov 2021 Curia 39.3 26.2 8.6 15.9 2.3 1.7 13.1
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021 Talbot Mills 41 24 9 17 2.4 4.2 17
3–11 Oct 2021 Curia 44.8 22.5 6.4 16.6 1.5 3.6 22.3
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Talbot Mills 46 22 7 16 1.9 3.8 24
5–9 Sep 2021 Curia 45.8 21.3 9.6 14.9 1.2 2.7 24.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021 Talbot Mills 45 26 6 13 2 4.1 19
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021 Talbot Mills 43 28 7 13 1.7 4.4 15
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021 Talbot Mills 48 24 8 11 1.5 5 24
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result[4] 50.0 25.6 7.9 7.6 1.2 2.6 24.4

Preferred prime minister[edit]

Preferred prime minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll. To qualify for this table, this person must reach at least 3 percent in three separate polls. The table below includes private polls conducted for Labour (by Talbot Mills, previously called UMR) and National (by Curia), which may be cherry-picked and therefore may not properly indicate ongoing trends.

Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Ardern Collins Seymour Luxon Lead
25 Nov 2021 Judith Collins is removed as National Party leader in a vote of no confidence.
10–17 Nov 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 41.7 6.1 11.9 2.5 29.8
6–10 Nov 2021 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,001 39 5 11 4 28
1–8 Nov 2021 Curia 1,000 34 6.3 10.5 4.1 23.5
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021 Talbot Mills 1,023 47 10 15 2 32
3–11 Oct 2021 Curia 1,000 47.2 5.2 12.3 2.3 34.9
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Talbot Mills 1,200+ 51 9 16 35
22–26 Sep 2021 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,001 44 5 11 3 33
5–9 Sep 2021 Curia 1,000 50.8 4.4 9.3 41.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021 Talbot Mills 1,050 55 13 14 1.3 41
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021 Talbot Mills 1,216 50 11 14 2.1 36
22–29 Jul 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 45.5 8.2 8.6 36.9
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021 Talbot Mills 1,199 55 10 12 43
22–26 May 2021 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,002 48 9 6 3 39
7–13 May 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,000 48.1 5.6 2.4 42.5
9–13 Mar 2021 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,006 43 8 4 2 35
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020 1 News–Colmar Brunton 1,004 58 12 4 2 46

Government approval rating[edit]

The government approval rating is a statistic which measures the proportion of people who say they think the country is heading in the right direction or wrong direction politically.

Government approval rating
Date[nb 1] Polling organisation Sample size Right direction Wrong direction Do not know Lead
1–8 Nov 2021 Curia 1,000 44 45 11 1
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021 Roy Morgan 929 48 38.5 13.5 9.5
28 Sep – 5 Oct Talbot Mills 1,200 63 30 7 33
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021 Roy Morgan 940 57 32 11 25
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021 Roy Morgan 940 52.5 37.5 10 15
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021 Roy Morgan 945 55.5 34.5 10 21
31 May – 27 Jun 2021 Roy Morgan 927 57 33 10 24
26 Apr – 23 May 2021 Roy Morgan 932 62.5 28.5 9 34
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021 Roy Morgan 933 62.5 26.5 11 36
21–28 Mar 2021 Roy Morgan 924 61.5 26 12.5 35.5
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 Roy Morgan 924 69.5 20 10.5 49.5
4–24 Jan 2021 Roy Morgan 937 71.5 18.5 10 53
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020 Roy Morgan 923 71.5 18 10.5 53.5
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020 Roy Morgan 939 69.5 20 10.5 49.5

Forecasts[edit]

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[5]

Source Seats in Parliament[i] Likely
government
formation(s)
LAB NAT GRN ACT MRI Total
Newshub–Reid Research[6]
10–17 Nov 2021 poll
54 34 9 20 3 120 Labour–Green (63)
1 News–Colmar Brunton[7]
6–10 Nov 2021 poll
53 36 12 18 1 120 Labour–Green (65)
Roy Morgan Research[8]
Oct 2021 poll
51 33 13 20 3 120 Labour–Green (64)
2020 result[4]
17 Oct 2020 election
65 33 10 10 2 120 Labour (65)
  1. ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d e These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Wilson, John (4 June 2021). "The 2020 General Election and referendums: results, analysis, and demographics of the 53rd Parliament" (PDF). New Zealand Parliament. Parliamentary Library. p. 26. Retrieved 3 October 2021.
  2. ^ Braae, Alex (22 October 2020). "A tale of two minor parties: Lessons for 2023 for TOP and the New Conservatives". The Spinoff. Retrieved 8 December 2020.
  3. ^ "Election 2020: Matthew Hooton: National set for third defeat in 2023". NZ Herald. Retrieved 8 December 2020.
  4. ^ a b c "2020 GENERAL ELECTION – OFFICIAL RESULTS AND STATISTICS". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  5. ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  6. ^ O'Brien, Tova (21 November 2021). "Newshub-Reid Research poll: ACT gets 20 MPs while National fails to capitalise on discontent with Labour's COVID-19 response". Newshub.
  7. ^ "Ardern, Labour dip in support, Collins plunges to lowest approval rating - 1News Colmar Brunton Poll". 1 News. TVNZ. 15 November 2021.
  8. ^ "Labour support down and Government Confidence Rating drops to lowest since Jacinda Ardern became PM in 2017". Roy Morgan Research. 1 November 2021.