Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

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Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 51st New Zealand Parliament by various organisations. The five main polling organisations are Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos), MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News Reid Research/Newshub Reid Research), The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll), Roy Morgan Research, and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 20 September 2014. The last possible date for the next election to be held is Saturday, 18 November 2017.

Party vote and key events[edit]

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary[edit]

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 17 September 2014. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a GAM smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.
Summary poll results for political parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election. Lines give the mean estimated by a GAM smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls[edit]

Poll Date [nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First Māori ACT United Future Conservative Mana
Election result[1] 20 September 2014 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 0.22 3.97 1.40
Roy Morgan Research[2] 29 September – 12 October 2014 43.5 22.5 17.5 7 2 0.5 0.5 5 1
Roy Morgan Research[3] 27 October – 9 November 2014 49.5 24 14.5 6.5 1 0.5 0 2 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[4] 24 November – 7 December 2014 46 27 12 7 2 1.5 0 2.5 1
Herald-Digipoll[5] 8–21 December 2014 50.4 28.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 0.4 0 2.9 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[6] 5–18 January 2015 52 26 11 6 1.5 1 0 2 0
3 News Reid Research[7] 20–28 January 2015 49.8 29.1 9.3 6.9 1.3 0.4 0 2.7 0.6
Roy Morgan Research[8] 2–15 February 2015 49 30 12 6 1 0 0 1.5 0
One News Colmar Brunton[9] 14–18 February 2015 49 31 10 6 1.5 0.3 0 1.4 0.4
Roy Morgan Research[10] 2–15 March 2015 46.5 31 11 6 2 1 0 1.5 0
28 March 2015 – Northland by-election won by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 11–15 April 2015 49 31 9 7 0.8 0.5 0 1.5 1.1
Roy Morgan Research[12] 6–19 April 2015 45.5 27.5 13.5 8 1.5 1 0 1 0
22 April 2015 – A waitress reveals that for months John Key would pull her ponytail while visiting the café where she worked, even after she asked him to stop.[13][14]
Herald-Digipoll[15] 17–26 April 2015 51 28.7 10.8 6.1 0.8 0.8 0 1.1 0
Roy Morgan Research[16] 4–17 May 2015 54 25.5 10.5 6 1 1 0 1 0
21 May 2015 – 2015 Budget is delivered.
One News Colmar Brunton[17] 23–27 May 2015 48 31 10 7 1.4 0.1 0 2.3 0
3 News Reid Research[18] 21–27 May 2015 46.4 30.4 11.1 8.1 1.1 0.5 0 1.9 0
30 May 2015 – James Shaw replaces Russel Norman as Green Party co-leader.
Roy Morgan Research[19] 8–21 June 2015 49.5 26 13 6.5 1 1 0 1 0
22 to 27 June 2015 – The Conservative Party disintegrates as Colin Craig resigns as leader, all current board members have resigned and acting leadership of the party is left unclear between party administration and self-appointed board.
Roy Morgan Research[20] 29 June – 12 July 2015 43 32 13 7 1.5 0.5 0 1.5 0
One News Colmar Brunton[21] 11–15 July 2015 47 32 13 7 0.4 0.4 0 0 0.5
3 News Reid Research[22] 15–22 July 2015 47 31.1 11.4 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 0
Roy Morgan Research[23] 3–16 Aug 2015 50.5 27 11 8 1.5 0.5 0 0 0.5
Herald-Digipoll[24] 14–24 August 2015 50.8 31 9.2 6.9 1 0.2 0 0.6 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton[25] 29 August – 2 September 2015 47 32 12 7 1.2 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[26] 31 August – 13 September 2015 44.5 31 15 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 0.5
3 News Reid Research[27] 8–16 September 2015 47.3 33 10 7.9 0.5 0.6 0 0.5 0
Roy Morgan Research[28] 31 September – 11 October 2015 50 29 11.5 6.5 0.5 0.5 0 0.5 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[29] 10–14 October 2015 47 31 12 9 0.8 0.2 0 0.4 0
Roy Morgan Research[30] 26 October – 8 November 2015 49 29.5 12 6 2 0.5 0 0.5 0.5
3 News Reid Research[31] November 2015 46.7 32.3 10.2 7.5 1.3 0.8 0 0.7 0
Roy Morgan Research[32] 23 November – 6 December 2015 49 28.5 13 6 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0
Herald-Digipoll[33] 4–14 December 2015 51.3 31.1 8.2 5.7 2.1 0.8 0.3 0 0
Roy Morgan Research[34] 4–17 January 2016 47 27.5 14 6.5 3 0.5 0 1 0
4 February 2016 – Signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement by the New Zealand government and 12 other partner countries.
Roy Morgan Research[35] 1–14 February 2016 48 27 14.5 6 1 0.5 0 1 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[36] 13–17 February 2016 47 32 8 10 1.1 0.3 0 0.6 0.3
Roy Morgan Research[37] 29 February – 13 March 2016 46 28 14 9 1 1 0 0.5 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton[38] 2–6 April 2016 50 28 10 9 1.1 0.7 0 0.3 0
Roy Morgan Research[39] 4–17 April 2016 42.5 26 14.5 12.5 1.5 1.5 0 1 0
Roy Morgan Research[40] 2–15 May 2016 45.5 29.5 12 9.5 1 1 0 0.5 0
Newshub Reid Research[41] 24 May 2016 47 31.3 11.1 7.8 1 0.4 0 0.6
26 May 2016 – The 2016 Budget is delivered. [42]
31 May 2016 – Labour and the Greens announce their memorandum of understanding.[43]
One News Colmar Brunton[44] 28 May – 2 June 2016 48 29 12 9 0.7 0.3 0 0.7 0.1
Roy Morgan Research[45] 12 June 2016 43.5 28 14.5 9 2 0.5 0 1 1
Roy Morgan Research[46] 17 July 2016 53 25.5 11.5 7 0.5 1 0 0.5 0.5
Newshub Reid Research[47] 22 July – 3 August 2016 45.1 32.7 11.5 8.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.5[48]
Roy Morgan Research[49] 8–21 August 2016 46.0 25.5 14.5 9.5 1.5 1 0 1.0 0.5
UMR Research [50] 31 August– 5 September 2016 40 31 14 11 2 0 0 0 2
One News Colmar Brunton[51] 3–7 September 2016 48 26 13 11 2 0 0 0 0
Roy Morgan Research[50] 5–18 September 2016 41.5 33.5 12 8.5 2 1 0 0.5 0
Poll Date [nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First Māori ACT United Future Conservative Mana

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Official Count Results -- Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014. 
  2. ^ "National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support". Roy Morgan Research. 16 October 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014. 
  3. ^ "National enjoy delayed honeymoon with big lead over leaderless Labour before new leader is selected next week". Roy Morgan Research. 14 November 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014. 
  4. ^ "National lead is down after Andrew Little claims the Labour Leadership with a landslide of Union support over Cabinet's preferred option Grant Robertson". Roy Morgan Research. 12 December 2014. Retrieved 26 December 2014. 
  5. ^ Young, Audrey (26 December 2014). "National, Labour both on the rise". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 2 February 2015. 
  6. ^ "National surges in 2015 – Biggest lead since September 2014 NZ Election". Roy Morgan Research. 23 January 2015. Retrieved 23 January 2015. 
  7. ^ Gower, Patrick (1 February 2015). "Little rivals Clark in favourable poll results". 3 News. Retrieved 1 February 2015. 
  8. ^ "National support slips but Labour still well behind as New Zealand co-host the 2015 Cricket World Cup". Roy Morgan Research. 20 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015. 
  9. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 22 February 2015. Retrieved 22 February 2015. 
  10. ^ "National support slips but would win a close election as New Zealand get set to host Cricket World Cup Quarter-Final". Roy Morgan Research. 20 March 2015. Retrieved 20 March 2015. 
  11. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 19 April 2015. Retrieved 21 April 2015. 
  12. ^ "National retains strong support despite NZ First victory at the Northland by-election". Roy Morgan Research. 23 April 2015. Retrieved 23 April 2015. 
  13. ^ Kirk, Stacey; Rutherford, Hamish; Gulliver, Aimee (22 April 2014). "Prime Minister John Key pulled waitress' ponytail". Stuff. Retrieved 25 May 2015. 
  14. ^ Bailey, Amanda (23 April 2014). "UPDATE: The Prime Minister and the Waitress Part 2 – Dirty Politics?". The Daily Blog. Retrieved 25 May 2015. 
  15. ^ Young, Audrey (29 April 2014). "Ponytail-gate fails to shake Prime Minister's ratings". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 29 April 2015. 
  16. ^ "Positive news in lead up to New Zealand Budget helps National Government support jump to 54% - highest since October 2011 Share". Roy Morgan Research. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 25 May 2015. 
  17. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 31 May 2015. Retrieved 1 June 2015. 
  18. ^ Gower, Patrick (2 June 2015). "John Key's popularity drops in latest poll". 3 News. Retrieved 2 June 2015. 
  19. ^ "National Government support down to 49.5% as New Zealand growth slows to 0.2% in March Quarter – slowest in two years". Roy Morgan Research. 24 June 2015. Retrieved 24 June 2015. 
  20. ^ "Support for Labour/Greens coalition overtakes National for first time since New Zealand Election". Roy Morgan Research. 17 July 2015. Retrieved 17 July 2015. 
  21. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll". Colmar Brunton. 19 July 2015. Retrieved 19 July 2015. 
  22. ^ Gower, Patrick (26 July 2015). "Poll: 61pct want to ban foreign buyers". 3 News. Retrieved 26 July 2015. 
  23. ^ "National support jumps ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance". Roy Morgan Research. 20 Aug 2015. Retrieved 20 August 2015. 
  24. ^ Young, Audrey (26 August 2015). "Labour's support recovers to 30s". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 26 August 2015. 
  25. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 6 September 2015. Retrieved 11 September 2015. 
  26. ^ "Potential Labour/Greens alliance support jumps ahead of National as RBNZ cuts interest rates to boost flagging NZ economy". Roy Morgan Research. 13 Sep 2015. Retrieved 18 September 2015. 
  27. ^ Gower, Patrick (26 July 2015). "Political poll: Support low for flag change". 3 News. Retrieved 21 September 2015. 
  28. ^ "National support jumps in October with signing of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and leads potential Labour/Greens alliance". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 15 October 2015. 
  29. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 18 October 2015. Retrieved 20 October 2015. 
  30. ^ "NZ voting intention virtually unchanged in November before controversy this week after PM John Key accuses Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 13 November 2015. 
  31. ^ Gower, Patrick (22 November 2015). "National still ahead in polls despite 'rapist' remarks". 3 News. Retrieved 24 November 2015. 
  32. ^ "National set for Merry Christmas as Key Government retains strong lead over Labour/Greens opposition". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 25 December 2015. 
  33. ^ Young, Audrey (15 December 2015). "National steady at year-end". NZ Herald. Retrieved 16 December 2015. 
  34. ^ "National lead down slightly over Labour/Greens opposition in New Year. TPP signing ceremony set for Auckland in two weeks a coup for PM John Key.". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 22 January 2016. 
  35. ^ "National builds winning lead over Labour/Greens opposition in New Zealand following TPP signing ceremony in Auckland early in February". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 22 February 2016. 
  36. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 21 February 2016. Retrieved 23 February 2016. 
  37. ^ "National lead cut to smallest since September as NZ First vote surges to 9% as Winston Peters takes strong stand on New Zealand Flag Referendum". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 18 March 2016. 
  38. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 10 April 2016. Retrieved 10 April 2016. 
  39. ^ "National vote lowest since 2014 Election as NZ First vote surges to 20 year high of 12.5%". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 26 April 2016. 
  40. ^ "National and Labour vote up in May but NZ First still holds the balance of power position despite vote falling". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 23 May 2016. 
  41. ^ Gower, Patrick (24 May 2016). "Newshub poll: Key's popularity plummets to lowest level". Newshub. Retrieved 24 May 2016. 
  42. ^ "English sets date for Budget 2016". Radio New Zealand. 16 February 2016. Retrieved 4 May 2016. 
  43. ^ Davison, Isaac (31 May 2016). "Labour, Greens to work together to stop National at next election". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 31 May 2016. 
  44. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 7 June 2016. Retrieved 7 June 2016. 
  45. ^ "National and Labour down in June but New Zealand First still holds the balance of power if Election was held now". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 20 June 2016. 
  46. ^ "National extends lead over Labour to highest in over a year as Government unveils $1 billion housing infrastructure fund". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 22 July 2016. 
  47. ^ Gower, Patrick (8 August 2016). "Poll: John Key could lose grip on power". Newshub. Retrieved 8 August 2016. 
  48. ^ http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/TV3+POLL+RESULTS.html
  49. ^ "National support down but still has election winning lead after boost from $1 billion housing infrastructure fund announcement wears off". Retrieved 8 September 2016. 
  50. ^ a b Template:Https://twitter.com/jo moir/status/775502064134656000 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "RMR27Sep2016" defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  51. ^ "Poll-infographic-with-econ-outlook". Colmar Brunton. 13 September 2016. Retrieved 13 September 2016.