Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

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Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 51st New Zealand Parliament by various organisations. The five main polling organisations are Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos), MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News Reid Research), The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll), Roy Morgan Research, and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 20 September 2014. The last possible date for the next election to be held is Saturday, 18 November 2017.

Party vote and key events[edit]

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Individual polls[edit]

Poll Date [nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First Māori ACT United Future Conservative Mana
Election result[1] 20 September 2014 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 0.22 3.97 1.40[nb 2]
Roy Morgan Research[2] 29 September – 12 October 2014 43.5 22.5 17.5 7 2 0.5 0.5 5 1
Roy Morgan Research[3] 27 October – 9 November 2014 49.5 24 14.5 6.5 1 0.5 0 2 0.5
Roy Morgan Research[4] 24 November – 7 December 2014 46 27 12 7 2 1.5 0 2.5 1
Herald-Digipoll[5] 8–21 December 2014 50.4 28.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 0.4 0 2.9 0.2
Roy Morgan Research[6] 5–18 January 2015 52 26 11 6 1.5 1 0 2 0
3 News Reid Research[7] 20–28 January 2015 49.8 29.1 9.3 6.9 1.3 0.4 0 2.7 0.6
Roy Morgan Research[8] 2–15 February 2015 49 30 12 6 1 0 0 1.5 0
One News Colmar Brunton[9] 14–18 February 2015 49 31 10 6 1.5 0.3 0 1.4 0.4
Roy Morgan Research[10] 2–15 March 2015 46.5 31 11 6 2 1 0 1.5 0
28 March 2015 – Northland by-election won by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 11–15 April 2015 49 31 9 7 0.8 0.5 0 1.5 1.1
Roy Morgan Research[12] 6–19 April 2015 45.5 27.5 13.5 8 1.5 1 0 1 0
22 April 2015 – A waitress reveals that for months John Key would pull her ponytail while visiting the café where she worked, even after she asked him to stop.[13][14]
Herald-Digipoll[15] 17–26 April 2015 51 28.7 10.8 6.1 0.8 0.8 0 1.1 0
Roy Morgan Research[16] 4–17 May 2015 54 25.5 10.5 6 1 1 0 1 0
21 May 2015 – Bill English delivers the 2015 Budget to Parliament and the public.
One News Colmar Brunton[17] 23–27 May 2015 48 31 10 7 1.4 0.1 0 2.3 0
3 News Reid Research[18] 21–27 May 2015 46.4 30.4 11.1 8.1 1.1 0.5 0 1.9 0
30 May 2015 – James Shaw replaces Russel Norman as Green Party co-leader.
Roy Morgan Research[19] 8–21 June 2015 49.5 26 13 6.5 1 1 0 1 0
22 to 27 June 2015 – The Conservative Party disintegrates as Colin Craig resigns as leader, all current board members have resigned and acting leadership of the party is left unclear between party administration and self-appointed board.
Roy Morgan Research[19] 29 June – 12 July 2015 43 32 13 7 1.5 0.5 0 1.5 0
One News Colmar Brunton[20] 11–15 July 2015 47 32 13 7 0.4 0.4 0 0 0.5
3 News Reid Research[21] 15–22 July 2015 47 31.1 11.4 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 0
Roy Morgan Research[22] 3–16 Aug 2015 50.5 27 11 8 1.5 0.5 0 0 0.5
Herald-Digipoll[23] 14–24 August 2015 50.8 31 9.2 6.9 1 0.2 0 0.6 0.2

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ The Mana Party and Internet Party entered into an agreement for the 2014 election as InternetMANA. This is InternetMANA's vote percentage.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Official Count Results -- Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014. 
  2. ^ "National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support". Roy Morgan Research. 16 October 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014. 
  3. ^ "National enjoy delayed honeymoon with big lead over leaderless Labour before new leader is selected next week". Roy Morgan Research. 14 November 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014. 
  4. ^ "National lead is down after Andrew Little claims the Labour Leadership with a landslide of Union support over Cabinet’s preferred option Grant Robertson". Roy Morgan Research. 12 December 2014. Retrieved 26 December 2014. 
  5. ^ Young, Audrey (26 December 2014). "National, Labour both on the rise". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 2 February 2015. 
  6. ^ "National surges in 2015 – Biggest lead since September 2014 NZ Election". Roy Morgan Research. 23 January 2015. Retrieved 23 January 2015. 
  7. ^ Gower, Patrick (1 February 2015). "Little rivals Clark in favourable poll results". 3 News. Retrieved 1 February 2015. 
  8. ^ "National support slips but Labour still well behind as New Zealand co-host the 2015 Cricket World Cup". Roy Morgan Research. 20 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015. 
  9. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 22 February 2015. Retrieved 22 February 2015. 
  10. ^ "National support slips but would win a close election as New Zealand get set to host Cricket World Cup Quarter-Final". Roy Morgan Research. 20 March 2015. Retrieved 20 March 2015. 
  11. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 19 April 2015. Retrieved 21 April 2015. 
  12. ^ "National retains strong support despite NZ First victory at the Northland by-election". Roy Morgan Research. 23 April 2015. Retrieved 23 April 2015. 
  13. ^ Kirk, Stacey; Rutherford, Hamish; Gulliver, Aimee (22 April 2014). "Prime Minister John Key pulled waitress' ponytail". Stuff. Retrieved 25 May 2015. 
  14. ^ Bailey, Amanda (23 April 2014). "UPDATE: The Prime Minister and the Waitress Part 2 – Dirty Politics?". The Daily Blog. Retrieved 25 May 2015. 
  15. ^ Young, Audrey (29 April 2014). "Ponytail-gate fails to shake Prime Minister's ratings". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 29 April 2015. 
  16. ^ "Positive news in lead up to New Zealand Budget helps National Government support jump to 54% - highest since October 2011 Share". Roy Morgan Research. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 25 May 2015. 
  17. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 31 May 2015. Retrieved 1 June 2015. 
  18. ^ Gower, Patrick (2 June 2015). "John Key's popularity drops in latest poll". 3 News. Retrieved 2 June 2015. 
  19. ^ a b "National Government support down to 49.5% as New Zealand growth slows to 0.2% in March Quarter – slowest in two years". Roy Morgan Research. 24 June 2015. Retrieved 24 June 2015. 
  20. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll". Colmar Brunton. 19 July 2015. Retrieved 19 July 2015. 
  21. ^ Gower, Patrick (26 July 2015). "Poll: 61pct want to ban foreign buyers". 3 News. Retrieved 26 July 2015. 
  22. ^ "National support jumps ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance". Roy Morgan Research. 20 Aug 2015. Retrieved 20 August 2015. 
  23. ^ Young, Audrey (26 August 2015). "Labour's support recovers to 30s". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 26 August 2015.