Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigation Jump to search

In the run-up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Scottish Parliament election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. Under the Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill, the next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021.[1]

Constituency vote[edit]

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.

Graphical summary[edit]

The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the next Scottish Parliament election; trendlines are local regressions (LOESS).

Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election (constituency vote).svg

Poll results[edit]

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
SNP Lab Con Lib Dem Green UKIP Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 9–11 Oct 2019 1,003 42% 19% 21% 10% 3% <1% 4% <1% 21%
YouGov/The Times 29 Aug–3 Sep 2019 1,059 45% 13% 23% 12% 2% 0% 3% 1% 22%
29 August 2019 Shetland by-election
Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–20 Jun 2019 1,024 42% 16% 20% 11% 3% <1% <1% 7% <1% 22%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 41% 18% 20% 8% 3% 1% 1% 7% <1% 21%
YouGov/The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 46% 16% 22% 7% 3% 1% 4% 0% 24%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 40% 20% 22% 6% 3% 1% 2% 5% <1% 18%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 28 Feb–6 Mar 2019 1,002 41% 19% 27% 8% 3% 2% <1% 14%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1–4 Mar 2019 1,011 43% 22% 24% 9% 2% 19%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 1,028 41% 23% 25% 6% 3% 1% <1% 16%
Panelbase/Constitutional Commission 2–7 Nov 2018 1,050 39% 24% 27% 6% 3% 1% <1% 12%
Survation/Daily Record 18–21 Oct 2018 1,017 38% 25% 26% 9% 1% 0% 12%
Survation/SNP 3–5 Oct 2018 1,013 44% 23% 24% 8% 1% 20%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 1,024 41% 21% 26% 6% 3% 2% <1% 15%
Survation/The Sunday Post 28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 1,036 43% 23% 24% 9% 2% 19%
Survation/Daily Record 5–10 Jul 2018 1,004 44% 21% 24% 9% 3% 20%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 21–27 Jun 2018 1,018 41% 22% 27% 6% 2% 1% <1% 14%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 8–13 Jun 2018 1,021 40% 24% 28% 6% 2% <1% <1% 12%
YouGov/The Times 1–5 Jun 2018 1,075 41% 22% 27% 6% 2% 1% 1% 14%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 23–28 Mar 2018 1,037 40% 22% 28% 6% 3% <1% <1% 12%
Survation/Daily Record 24–28 Jan 2018 1,029 42% 25% 25% 6% 2% 17%
YouGov/The Times 12–16 Jan 2018 1,002 38% 23% 26% 7% 3% 2% 0% 12%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 15–20 Dec 2017 1,022 39% 25% 26% 6% 2% <1% <1% 13%
Survation/The Sunday Post 1–5 Dec 2017 1,006 39% 28% 24% 7% 2% 11%
Survation/Daily Record 27–30 Nov 2017 1,017 39% 25% 24% 8% 3% 14%
18 Nov 2017 Richard Leonard officially becomes leader of the Scottish Labour Party[2]
YouGov/The Times 2–5 Oct 2017 1,135 42% 25% 25% 5% 2% 1% 0% 17%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 8–12 Sep 2017 1,016 42% 25% 26% 7% 2% 16%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 31 Aug–7 Sep 2017 1,021 42% 22% 28% 6% 2% <1% <1% 14%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election[3]
YouGov/The Times 9–14 Mar 2017 1,028 51% 14% 24% 6% 4% 1% 1% 27%
YouGov/The Times 24–29 Nov 2016 1,134 48% 15% 25% 6% 3% 1% 0% 23%
BMG 28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 1,010 51% 18% 21% 7% 3% 30%
YouGov/The Times 29–31 Aug 2016 1,039 52% 16% 21% 5% 3% 2% 0% 31%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 24–28 Jun 2016 1,055 50% 18% 21% 8% 4% 29%
2016 Scottish Parliament election 5 May 2016 46.5% 22.6% 22.0% 7.8% 0.6% 0.5% 23.9%

Regional vote[edit]

The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.

Graphical summary[edit]

The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next Scottish Parliament election; trendlines are local regressions (LOESS).

Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election (regional vote).svg

Poll results[edit]

Pollster/client(s) Date(s)
conducted
Sample
size
SNP Con Lab Green Lib Dem UKIP Change UK Brexit Party Other Lead
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 9–11 Oct 2019 1,003 38% 21% 18% 6% 11% <1% 4% <1% 17%
YouGov/The Times 30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 1,059 39% 20% 11% 8% 13% 1% 0% 5% 3%[a] 19%
29 August 2019 Shetland by-election
Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–20 Jun 2019 1,024 39% 20% 16% 7% 10% <1% <1% 6% <1% 19%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 14–17 May 2019 1,021 37% 19% 18% 7% 8% 2% 2% 6% <1% 18%
YouGov/The Times 24–26 Apr 2019 1,029 37% 20% 15% 10% 7% 2% 2% 5% 4%[a] 17%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 18–24 Apr 2019 1,018 37% 22% 19% 7% 7% 2% 2% 4% <1% 15%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 28 Feb–6 Mar 2019 1,002 36% 26% 19% 6% 9% 3% <1% 10%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1–4 Mar 2019 1,011 32% 22% 19% 11% 11% 3% 1% 10%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 1,028 38% 26% 22% 6% 7% 1% <1% 12%
Panelbase/Constitutional Commission 2–7 Nov 2018 1,050 37% 26% 22% 6% 6% 2% <1% 11%
Survation/Daily Record 18–21 Oct 2018 1,017 32% 23% 23% 9% 9% 4% 9%
Survation/SNP 3–5 Oct 2018 1,013 40% 25% 22% 4% 8% 2% 15%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 1,024 35% 26% 20% 7% 8% 2% 1% 9%
Survation/The Sunday Post 28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 1,036 32% 21% 23% 10% 8% 5% 0% 9%
Survation/Daily Record 5–10 Jul 2018 1,004 33% 19% 21% 11% 10% 5% 1% 12%
Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 21–27 Jun 2018 1,018 36% 27% 23% 6% 7% 1% <1% 9%
Panelbase/The Sunday Times 8–13 Jun 2018 1,021 36% 26% 23% 7% 6% 1% <1% 10%
YouGov/The Times 1–5 Jun 2018 1,075 32% 26% 21% 9% 7% 1% 4%[a] 6%
Survation/Daily Record 24–28 Jan 2018 1,029 33% 23% 23% 9% 8% 3% 1% 10%
YouGov/The Times 12–16 Jan 2018 1,002 32% 25% 22% 10% 7% 3% 2%[b] 7%
Survation/The Sunday Post 1–5 Dec 2017 1,006 32% 21% 24% 10% 10% 3% 1% 8%
Survation/Daily Record 27–30 Nov 2017 1,017 33% 22% 25% 8% 8% 3% <1% 8%
18 Nov 2017 Richard Leonard officially becomes leader of the Scottish Labour Party[2]
YouGov/The Times 2–5 Oct 2017 1,135 35% 23% 24% 6% 6% 1% 4%[a] 11%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 8–12 Sep 2017 1,016 31% 21% 25% 9% 10% 3% <1% 6%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election[3]
YouGov/The Times 9–14 Mar 2017 1,028 40% 25% 14% 12% 5% 2% 2%[c] 15%
YouGov/The Times 24–29 Nov 2016 1,134 39% 24% 14% 11% 6% 4% 1%[c] 15%
BMG 28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 1,010 43% 20% 16% 8% 7% 3% 1% 23%
YouGov/The Times 29–31 Aug 2016 1,039 45% 21% 15% 9% 6% 2% 0% 24%
Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 24–28 Jun 2016 1,055 41% 20% 16% 12% 7% 4% 1% 21%
2016 Scottish Parliament election 5 May 2016 41.7% 22.9% 19.1% 6.6% 5.2% 2.0% 2.4% 18.8%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d Including the SSP with 3%
  2. ^ Including the SSP with 2%
  3. ^ a b Including RISE with 1%

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Scottish Elections (Dates) Bill passes stage 3". Scottish Government. 25 February 2016. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
  2. ^ a b "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 18 November 2017. Retrieved 23 May 2017.
  3. ^ a b "General Election 2017: full results and analysis". UK Parliament. 29 January 2019. Retrieved 23 May 2019.

External links[edit]