Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election

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In the run up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Scotland.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. The next election is scheduled for 6 May 2021, unless a snap election is called.

Constituency polling[edit]

The opinion polls below are to gauge voting intentions for the 73 single member constituency seats which are elected through using the plurality electoral system.

Date(s) Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Con Lab Lib Dem Green Other Lead
30 Nov-5 Dec Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,028 41% 25% 23% 6% 3% 1% 16%
2–7 Nov Panelbase/Constitutional Commission 1,050 39% 27% 24% 6% 3% 1% 12%
18–21 Oct Survation/Daily Record 1,017 38% 26% 25% 9% N/A 2% 12%
3–5 Oct Survation/Scottish National Party 1,013 44% 24% 23% 8% N/A N/A 20%
28 Sep-4 Oct Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 41% 26% 21% 6% 3% 2% 15%
28 Sep - 2 Oct Survation/Sunday Post 1,036 43% 24% 23% 9% N/A 2% 19%
5–10 July Survation/Daily Record 1,002 44% 24% 21% 9% N/A N/A 20%
21–27 June Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,018 41% 27% 22% 6% 2% 1% 14%
8–13 June Panelbase 1,021 40% 28% 24% 6% 2% 0% 12%
1–5 June YouGov/The Times 1,075 41% 27% 22% 6% 2% 2% 14%
23–28 March Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,037 40% 28% 22% 6% 3% 2% 12%
24–28 January Survation/Daily Record 1,019 42% 25% 25% 6% N/A 2% 17%
12–16 January YouGov/The Times 1,002 38% 26% 23% 7% 3% 2% 12%
2017
1–5 December Survation/Sunday Post 1,006 39% 24% 28% 7% N/A 2% 11%
27–30 November Survation/Daily Record 1,017 39% 24% 25% 8% N/A 3% 14%
18 November Richard Leonard becomes leader of the Scottish Labour Party[1]
2–5 October YouGov/The Times 1,135 42% 25% 25% 5% 2% 1% 17%
8–12 September Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,016 42% 26% 25% 7% N/A 2% 16%
31 Aug–7 Sep Panelbase/The Sunday Times 1,021 42% 28% 22% 6% 2% <1% 14%
8 June United Kingdom general election, 2017
9–14 March YouGov/The Times 1,028 51% 24% 14% 6% 4% 2% 27%
2016
24–29 November YouGov/The Times 1,134 48% 25% 15% 6% 3% 1% 23%
28 Sep–4 Oct BMG Research 1,010 51% 21% 18% 7% N/A 3% 30%
29–31 August YouGov/The Times 1,039 52% 21% 16% 5% 3% 2% 31%
24–28 June Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,055 50% 21% 18% 8% N/A 4% 29%
5 May Parliamentary Election Result 46.5% 22.0% 22.6% 7.8% 0.6% 1.1% 23.9%

Regional polling[edit]

The opinion polls below are to gauge voting intentions for the 56 regional list seats which are elected using the D'Hondt formula.

Date(s) Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Con Lab Green Lib Dem UKIP SSP Other Lead
2018
30 Nov-5 Dec Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,028 38% 26% 22% 7% 6% 1% N/A <1% 12%
2–7 Nov Panelbase/Constitutional Commission 1,050 37% 26% 22% 6% 6% 2% N/A 1% 11%
18–21 Oct Survation/Daily Record 1,017 32% 23% 23% 9% 9% N/A N/A 4% 9%
3-5 Oct Survation/Scottish National Party 1,013 40% 25% 22% 4% 8% N/A N/A 2% 15%
28 Sep-4 Oct Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 35% 26% 20% 7% 8% 2% N/A 1% 9%
28 Sep - 2 Oct Survation/Sunday Post 1,036 32% 21% 23% 10% 8% 5% N/A 0% 9%
5–10 July Survation/Daily Record 1,002 33% 19% 21% 11% 10% 5% N/A N/A 12%
21–27 June Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,018 36% 27% 22% 6% 7% 1% N/A <1% 9%
8–13 June Panelbase 1,021 36% 26% 23% 7% 6% 1% N/A 0% 10%
1–5 June YouGov/The Times 1,075 32% 26% 21% 9% 7% 1% 3% 1% 6%
24–28 January Survation/Daily Record 1,019 33% 23% 23% 9% 8% 3% N/A 1% 10%
12–16 January YouGov/The Times 1,002 32% 25% 22% 10% 7% 3% 2% <1% 7%
2017
1–5 December Survation/Sunday Post 1,006 32% 21% 24% 10% 10% 3% N/A 1% 8%
27–30 November Survation/Daily Record 1,017 33% 22% 25% 8% 8% 3% N/A <1% 8%
18 November Richard Leonard becomes leader of the Scottish Labour Party[1]
2–5 October YouGov/The Times 1,135 35% 23% 24% 6% 6% 1% 3% 5% 11%
8–12 September Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,016 31% 21% 25% 9% 10% 3% N/A 0% 6%
8 June United Kingdom general election, 2017
9–14 March YouGov/The Times 1,028 40% 25% 14% 12% 5% 2% 1%[a] 2% 15%
2016
24–29 November YouGov/The Times 1,134 39% 24% 14% 11% 6% 4% 1%[a] 1% 15%
28 Sep–4 Oct BMG Research 1,010 43% 20% 16% 8% 7% 3% N/A 1% 23%
29–31 August YouGov/The Times 1,039 45% 21% 15% 9% 6% 2% 0%[a] 0% 24%
24–28 June Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,055 41% 20% 16% 12% 7% 4% N/A 1% 20%
5 May Parliamentary Election Result 41.7% 22.9% 19.1% 6.6% 5.2% 2.0% 0.5% [b] 2.5% 18.8%

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c Question asked voters about RISE, an electoral alliance of which the Scottish Socialist Party was affiliated to, instead of the Scottish Socialist Party themselves.
  2. ^ The vote share is for RISE, an electoral alliance of which the Scottish Socialist Party was affiliated to, instead of the Scottish Socialist Party themselves.

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b "Richard Leonard to lead Scottish Labour". BBC News. 2017-11-18. Retrieved 2017-11-18.