Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
Opinion polling for UK general elections |
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2015 election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
2017 election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
2019 election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
2024 election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
Next election |
Opinion polls • Leadership approval |
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates of these opinion polls range from the previous general election on 4 July 2024 to the present.
The next general election must be held no later than 15 August 2029 under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. The Act mandates that any Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met – unless it is dissolved earlier at the request of the prime minister – and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.
Graphical summary
[edit]The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
National poll results
[edit]Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland. Due to rounding total figures might not add up to 100%.
2024
[edit]Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Area | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11 Dec | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,659 | 26% | 23% | 25% | 11% | 9% | 6% |
1 |
5–6 Dec | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,644 | 27% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
2 |
4 Dec | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,607 | 23% | 26% | 24% | 11% | 9% | 6% |
2 |
29 Nov – 2 Dec | More In Common | N/A | GB | 2,002 | 26% | 28% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 6% |
2 |
27–29 Nov | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 2,050 | 29% | 25% | 21% | 10% | 9% | 6% |
4 |
27–28 Nov | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,648 | 28% | 27% | 18% | 13% | 6% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
1 |
27 Nov | Find Out Now | N/A | GB | 2,316 | 25% | 27% | 22% | 12% | 9% | 6% |
2 |
26–27 Nov | BMG Research | The i | GB | 1,531 | 29% | 27% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 5% |
2 |
26–27 Nov | More in Common | N/A | GB | 1,972 | 27% | 30% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 5% |
3 |
20–21 Nov | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,632 | 29% | 27% | 17% | 12% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
2 |
19–21 Nov | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,002 | 25% | 28% | 19% | 13% | 8% | 7% |
3 |
14–18 Nov | Deltapoll | N/A | GB | 1,749 | 29% | 27% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 6% |
2 |
13–14 Nov | JL Partners | The Sun / Politico | GB | 2,024 | 27% | 26% | 20% | 12% | 9% | 6%
SNP on 3% Other on 3% |
1 |
13–14 Nov | Techne | N/A | GB | 1,643 | 28% | 27% | 17% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
1 |
11–13 Nov | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,646 | 30% | 24% | 21% | 12% | 8% | 5% |
6 |
8–11 Nov | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,007 | 27% | 29% | 19% | 11% | 8% | 5%
SNP on 2% |
2 |
6–7 Nov | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,636 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
4 |
2 Nov | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||||||
30 Oct – 1 Nov | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,007 | 28% | 26% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 5%
SNP on 3% Other on 3% |
2 |
30–31 Oct | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,548 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 5% |
7 |
30–31 Oct | BMG Research | The i | GB | 1,511 | 28% | 29% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 5% |
1 |
30–31 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,632 | 30% | 24% | 18% | 14% | 7% | 7%
SNP on 2% Other on 5% |
6 |
23–24 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,644 | 29% | 24% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
5 |
16–18 Oct | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,565 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 12% | 8% | 5% |
7 |
16–17 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,636 | 28% | 25% | 19% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
3 |
11–13 Oct | JL Partners | The Telegraph | GB | 2,000 | 29% | 25% | 19% | 14% | 7% | 5% |
4 |
9–10 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,651 | 29% | 24% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 9%
SNP on 2% Other on 7% |
5 |
9–10 Oct | More in Common | The Times | GB | 2,000 | 27% | 27% | 21% | 13% | 7% | 5%
SNP on 2% Other on 3% |
Tie |
5–7 Oct | More in Common | Politico | GB | 2,023 | 29% | 28% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 5%
SNP on 2% Other on 3% |
1 |
4–7 Oct | Deltapoll | N/A | GB | 2,108 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 6% |
4 |
2–4 Oct | Opinium | The Observer | GB | 1,491 | 31% | 24% | 20% | 11% | 8% | 5%
SNP on 3% Other on 2% |
7 |
2–3 Oct | BMG Research | i | GB | 1,562 | 30% | 25% | 20% | 13% | 7% | 4% |
5 |
2–3 Oct | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,643 | 31% | 23% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
8 |
25–26 Sep | Techne | N/A | UK | 1,638 | 32% | 22% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
10 |
24–25 Sep | More in Common | N/A | GB | 2,080 | 30% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 6% |
4 |
18–19 Sep | Techne | The Independent | UK | 1,641 | 33% | 21% | 18% | 13% | 7% | 8%
SNP on 2% Other on 6% |
12 |
10–12 Sep | More in Common | Politico | GB | 1,542 | 29% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 8% | 8% |
4 |
29 Aug | BMG Research | i | GB | 1,560 | 30% | 26% | 19% | 12% | 8% | 6% |
4 |
7–8 Aug | We Think | N/A | GB | 1,278 | 33% | 20% | 21% | 11% | 8% | 8% |
12 |
5–7 Aug | BMG Research | i | GB | 1,523 | 33% | 24% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 9 |
30 Jul – 5 Aug | Stonehaven | N/A | GB | 2,048 | 34% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 12 |
25–26 Jul | We Think | N/A | GB | 2,012 | 36% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 7% | 7% |
14 |
11–12 Jul | We Think | N/A | GB | 2,005 | 39% | 20% | 16% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 19 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | UK | – | 33.7% | 23.7% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.0 |
GB | 34.7% | 24.4% | 14.7% | 12.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 10.3 |
Seat projections
[edit]Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample
size |
Area | Lab | Con | Lib Dems | SNP | Reform | Green | Plaid Cymru | Others | Majority |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 Nov | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||||||||
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | UK | 411 | 121 | 72 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | Lab 174 |
Sub-national poll results
[edit]Northern Ireland
[edit]Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Sinn Féin | DUP | Alliance | UUP | SDLP | TUV | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election[1] | – | 27.0% | 22.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.9 |
Scotland
[edit]Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | SNP | Con | Lib Dems | Reform | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1–15 Nov 2024 | Survation | Progress Scotland | 3,016 | 28% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 3%
Alba on 3% Other on 1% |
3 |
30 Oct – 1 Nov 2024 | Norstat | The Sunday Times | 1,013 | 23% | 30% | 15% | 10% | 14% | 6% | 2%
Alba on 1% Other on 1% |
7 |
27 Sep 2024 | Russell Findlay is elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||||||
10–13 Sep 2024 | Survation | Progress Scotland | 2,059 | 31% | 31% | 14% | 9% | 11% | 3% | 1%
Alba on 1% Other on 0% |
Tie |
5–11 Sep 2024 | Opinium[2] | The Sunday Times | 1,028 | 25% | 32% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 7 |
20–22 Aug 2024 | Norstat | The Sunday Times | 1,011 | 32% | 29% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 5% | 2%
Alba on 2% Other on 1% |
3 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election[3] | – | 35.3% | 30.0% | 12.7% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 5.3 |
Wales
[edit]Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Reform | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3–5 Dec 2024 | Darren Millar is elected leader of the Welsh Conservatives | ||||||||||
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024 | Survation | Reform UK | 2,006 | 33% | 18% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 12 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election[4] | – | 37.0% | 18.2% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 18.8 |
English mayoral regions
[edit]London
[edit]Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dems | Green | Reform | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 Oct – 11 Nov 2024 | Savanta | N/A | ? | 36% | 24% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 3% | 12 |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | 43.1% | 20.4% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 22.7 |
Approval polling
[edit]Leadership approval
[edit]Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Kemi Badenoch | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
7-10 Dec 2024 | More in Common | 2,420 | 19% | 55% | -35 | 18% | 27% | -9 | 27% | 38% | -10 | 17% | 25% | -8 | ||||||
27–29 Nov 2024 | Opinium | 2,020 | 22% | 54% | –32 | 22% | 28% | –6 | 29% | 38% | –9 | 22% | 21% | +1 | – | – | ||||
26–27 Nov 2024 | BMG Research | 1,531 | 25% | 53% | –28 | 23% | 16% | +7 | 27% | 34% | –7 | 23% | 18% | +5 | – | – | ||||
26–27 Nov 2024 | More in Common | 1,749 | 24% | 53% | –29 | 20% | 26% | –6 | 25% | 41% | –16 | – | – | – | ||||||
14–18 Nov 2024 | Deltapoll | 1,749 | 29% | 61% | –32 | 24% | 38% | –14 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
13–14 Nov 2024 | JL Partners | 2,024 | 25% | 48% | –23 | 22% | 23% | –1 | 31% | 41% | –10 | 20% | 21% | –1 | 12% | 12% | - | 11% | 10% | +1 |
11–13 Nov 2024 | Opinium | 2,068 | 25% | 50% | –25 | 20% | 25% | –5 | 29% | 37% | –8 | 23% | 19% | +3 | – | – | ||||
8–11 Nov 2024 | Ipsos | 1,139 | 23% | 52% | –29 | 21% | 39% | –18 | 28% | 48% | –20 | 21% | 31% | –10 | 17% | 26% | –9 | 16% | 26% | –10 |
8–11 Nov 2024 | More In Common | 2,111 | 24% | 48% | –24 | 17% | 19% | –2 | – | 16% | 21% | –5 | – | – | ||||||
8–10 Nov 2024 | YouGov | 2,099 | 28% | 61% | –33 | 21% | 41% | –20 | 30% | 61% | –31 | 24% | 31% | –7 | 7% | 14% | –7 | 4% | 12% | –8 |
2 Nov | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | |||||||||||||||||||
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Rishi Sunak | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | ||||||||||||
Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
30–31 Oct 2024 | BMG Research | 1,511 | 23% | 49% | –26 | 28% | 33% | –5 | 28% | 35% | –7 | 19% | 19% | - | – | – | ||||
30–31 Oct 2024 | Opinium | 2,016 | 26% | 50% | –24 | 23% | 45% | –22 | 28% | 40% | –12 | 23% | 19% | +4 | – | – | ||||
18–20 Oct 2024 | Savanta | 2,135 | 30% | 48% | –18 | 28% | 49% | –21 | 31% | 46% | –14 | 22% | 28% | –5 | 15% | 20% | –5 | 13% | 20% | –7 |
16–18 Oct 2024 | Opinium | 2,007 | 21% | 53% | –32 | 20% | 45% | –25 | 25% | 39% | –14 | 22% | 20% | +2 | – | – | ||||
9–10 Oct 2024 | More In Common | 2,073 | 18% | 56% | –38 | 18% | 49% | –31 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
5–7 Oct 2024 | More In Common | 2,023 | 21% | 54% | –33 | 19% | 51% | –32 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
4–7 Oct 2024 | Deltapoll | 2,108 | 30% | 61% | –31 | 27% | 65% | –38 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
4–6 Oct 2024 | YouGov | 2,121 | 27% | 63% | –36 | 24% | 66% | –42 | 28% | 63% | –35 | 25% | 32% | –7 | – | – | ||||
2–4 Oct 2024 | Opinium | 2,055 | 24% | 52% | –28 | 18% | 47% | –29 | 26% | 42% | –16 | 21% | 21% | - | – | – | ||||
2–3 Oct 2024 | BMG Research | 1,562 | 25% | 50% | –25 | 23% | 41% | –18 | 29% | 32% | –4 | 21% | 20% | +1 | – | – | ||||
25–27 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,003 | 23% | 53% | –30 | 20% | 46% | –26 | 29% | 40% | –11 | 22% | 23% | –1 | – | – | ||||
24–25 Sep 2024 | More In Common | 2,080 | 21% | 48% | –27 | 17% | 52% | –35 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
20–22 Sep 2024 | YouGov | 2,137 | 30% | 60% | –30 | 24% | 68% | –44 | 28% | 63% | –35 | 27% | 36% | –9 | – | – | ||||
18–20 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,050 | 24% | 50% | –26 | 21% | 46% | –25 | 27% | 39% | –12 | 24% | 21% | +3 | – | – | ||||
9 Sep 2024 | More In Common | 2,024 | 25% | 45% | –20 | – | – | – | – | – | ||||||||||
29 Aug 2024 | BMG Research | 1,560 | 28% | 44% | –16 | 22% | 46% | –24 | 28% | 37% | –9 | 19% | 21% | –2 | – | – | ||||
24–27 Aug 2024 | More In Common | 2,015 | 27% | 43% | –16 | 17% | 58% | –41 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
14–16 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,000 | 32% | 38% | –6 | 20% | 50% | –30 | 24% | 43% | –19 | 21% | 21% | - | – | – | ||||
7–8 Aug 2024 | We Think | 1,278 | 33% | 42% | –9 | 22% | 57% | –35 | 29% | 44% | –15 | 18% | 36% | –18 | 14% | 28% | –14 | 10% | 26% | –16 |
5–7 Aug 2024 | BMG Research | 1,523 | 30% | 33% | –3 | 19% | 42% | –23 | 23% | 37% | –14 | 21% | 16% | +5 | – | – | ||||
5–6 Aug 2024 | YouGov | 2,163 | 37% | 53% | –16 | 23% | 71% | –48 | 25% | 67% | –42 | – | – | – | ||||||
5 Aug | 2024 United Kingdom riots end | |||||||||||||||||||
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,063 | 35% | 32% | +3 | 18% | 48% | –30 | 25% | 40% | –15 | 24% | 19% | +5 | 19% | 17% | +2 | 19% | 17% | +2 |
30–31 Jul 2024 | YouGov | 2,233 | 40% | 49% | –9 | 23% | 70% | –47 | 27% | 62% | –35 | 27% | 33% | –6 | 9% | 12% | –3 | 3% | 10% | –7 |
25–26 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,012 | 42% | 37% | +5 | 25% | 61% | –36 | 30% | 50% | –20 | 21% | 36% | –15 | 16% | 34% | –18 | 12% | 32% | –20 |
17–19 Jul 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 38% | 20% | +18 | 20% | 42% | –22 | – | 25% | 18% | +7 | 21% | 15% | +6 | 21% | 15% | +6 | ||
11–12 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,005 | 38% | 15% | +23 | 21% | 31% | –10 | – | – | – | – | ||||||||
5–8 Jul 2024 | YouGov[5] | 2,102 | 44% | 47% | –3 | 23% | 70% | –47 | 27% | 65% | –38 | 34% | 29% | +5 | 13% | 16% | –3 | 7% | 14% | –7 |
5–6 Jul 2024 | Ipsos[6] | 1,141 | 40% | 33% | +7 | 21% | 57% | –36 | 26% | 52% | –26 | 29% | 26% | +3 | – | – |
Party approval
[edit]Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Labour | Conservative | Reform | Lib Dems | Green | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
8–11 Nov 2024 | More In Common | 2,011 | 21% | 47% | –26 | 16% | 43% | –27 | – | 17% | 23% | –6 | – | ||||
8–10 Nov 2024 | YouGov | 2,099 | 30% | 61% | –31 | 25% | 67% | –42 | 26% | 59% | –33 | 38% | 42% | –4 | 41% | 39% | +2 |
2 Nov 2024 | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||||||||||||
9–10 Oct 2024 | More In Common | 2,072 | 24% | 51% | –27 | 15% | 52% | –36 | – | – | – | ||||||
5–7 Oct 2024 | More In Common | 2,023[a] | 24% | 51% | –27 | 15% | 53% | –38 | – | – | – | ||||||
20–22 Sep 2024 | YouGov | 2,132 | 32% | 59% | –27 | 24% | 67% | –43 | 26% | 62% | –36 | 37% | 45% | –8 | 40% | 42% | –2 |
24–27 Aug 2024 | More In Common | 2,015 | 25% | 45% | –20 | 15% | 57% | –42 | – | – | – | ||||||
5–6 Aug 2024 | YouGov | 2,163 | 39% | 53% | –14 | 23% | 70% | –47 | – | – | – | ||||||
5–8 Jul 2024 | YouGov[5] | 2,102 | 47% | 46% | +1 | 21% | 72% | –51 | 28% | 62% | –34 | 45% | 37% | +8 | 46% | 38% | +8 |
5–6 Jul 2024 | Ipsos[6] | 1,141 | 40% | 34% | +6 | 20% | 59% | –39 | 25% | 51% | –26 | 29% | 28% | +1 | 33% | 28% | +6 |
Preferred prime minister
[edit]Some pollsters ask voters which of the party leaders they would prefer as prime minister.
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Kemi Badenoch | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | None | Don't know | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26–27 Nov 2024 | YouGov | 2,203 | 27% | 22% | – | – | – | – | 4% | 47% | 5 |
2 Nov 2024 | Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||||||
30–31 Oct 2024 | YouGov[b] | 2,234 | 27% | 20% | – | – | – | – | – | 47% | 7 |
Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Rishi Sunak | Nigel Farage | Ed Davey | Carla Denyer | Adrian Ramsay | None | Don't know | Lead |
18–20 Oct 2024 | Savanta | 2,135 | 39% | 32% | – | – | – | – | 45% | 11% | 7 |
2–4 Oct 2024 | Opinium | 2,003 | 25% | 19% | – | – | – | – | 45% | – | 6 |
25–27 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,049 | 27% | 18% | – | – | – | – | 46% | 10% | 9 |
18–20 Sep 2024 | Opinium | 2,050 | 28% | 18% | – | – | – | – | 44% | 10% | 10 |
28–30 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,040 | 34% | 15% | – | – | – | – | 40% | 11% | 19 |
14–16 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 1,996 | 36% | 16% | – | – | – | – | 37% | 12% | 20 |
7–8 Aug 2024 | We Think | 1,278 | 26% | 10% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 20% | 15% | 6 |
31 Jul – 2 Aug 2024 | Opinium | 2,063 | 38% | 14% | – | – | – | – | 37% | 11% | 24 |
25–26 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,012 | 30% | 11% | 18% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 18% | 15% | 12 |
17–19 Jul 2024 | Opinium | 2,010 | 37% | 14% | – | – | – | – | 34% | 15% | 23 |
11–12 Jul 2024 | We Think | 2,005 | 30% | 11% | 14% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 20% | 13% | 16 |
Other polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
[edit]Different Conservative Party leaders: Voting intention and seat projection
[edit]For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.
Dates
conducted |
Pollster | Client | Area | Sample
size |
Hypothetical Conservative leader | Lab | Con | Lib Dems | SNP | Reform | Green | Plaid Cymru | Others | Majority / lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11–15 Oct 2024 | Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) | Jack Lewy / Robert Jenrick | GB | 6,289 | Kemi Badenoch | Seats | 332 | 151 | 63 | 48 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Lab 14 |
Vote share | 29% | 22% | 12% | 4% | 21% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 7 | ||||||
Robert Jenrick | Seats | 311 | 178 | 58 | 48 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Hung (Labour 15 short) | |||||
Vote share | 28% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 20% | 11% | 1% | 1% | 5 |
Hypothetical preferred Prime Minister polling
[edit]Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Keir Starmer | Kemi Badenoch | Robert Jenrick | None | Don't know | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30–31 Oct 2024 | YouGov | 2,234 | 27% | 20% | – | 47% | 6% | 7 |
29% | – | 21% | 45% | 5% | 8 | |||
18–20 Oct 2024 | Savanta | 2,135 | 41% | 23% | – | – | 35% | 18 |
41% | – | 25% | – | 35% | 16 |
See also
[edit]- Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
- Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
- Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the next Senedd election
Notes
[edit]- ^ All of the sample was asked about their approval of the Conservative Party. Half of the sample (1,012) was asked about their approval of the Labour Party; half of the sample (1,011) were asked about their approval of the government.
- ^ Poll conducted before Kemi Badenoch became leader of the Conservative Party.
References
[edit]- ^ "Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 8 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
- ^ "IndyRef – 10 Years On". Opinium Research. 18 September 2024. Retrieved 5 December 2024.
- ^ "Scotland election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 7 July 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
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