Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election

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In the run up to the next United Kingdom general election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from after the previous general election, held on 7 May 2015, to the present day. Under fixed-term legislation, the next general election is scheduled to be held on 7 May 2020.

Most opinion polls cover only Great Britain.

Graphical summary[edit]

UK Opinion Polling for the 2020 election including polls which started on or before 15th July 2016 (moving average is calculated from the last ten polls)
  Conservative
  Labour
  UKIP
  Liberal Democrats
  SNP
  Greens

Poll results[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order.[1] The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The "Lead" column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results are generally rounded to the nearest percentage point (where a result is less than 0.5%, but more than zero, it is indicated by '*').

The six parties with the largest numbers of votes in the 2015 general election are listed here. Other parties are listed in the "Other" column.

  Conservative Party
  Labour Party
  UK Independence Party
  Liberal Democrats
  Scottish National Party

2016[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
17–18 Jul YouGov 1,891 40% 29% 12% 9% 7%[a] 3% 1% 11%
13–15 Jul ICM 2,027 39% 29% 14% 9% 4% 4% 2% 10%
13 Jul Theresa May becomes the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
9–11 Jul Ipsos MORI 1,021 36% 35% 8% 11% 5% 4% 1% 1%
8–10 Jul ICM 2,025 38% 30% 15% 8% 5% 4% 1% 8%
4–5 Jul Survation/Constitutional Research Council 1,008 36% 32% 12% 9% 6% - 7% 4%
4 Jul Nigel Farage stands down as leader of UK Independence Party
1–3 Jul ICM 1,979 37% 30% 15% 8% 5% 4% 2% 7%
28–30 Jun Opinium 2,006 34% 29% 17% 7% 5% 4% 2% 5%
24–26 Jun ICM/The Guardian 2,001 36% 32% 15% 7% 5% 5% 1% 4%
24–25 Jun Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,033 32% 32% 16% 9% 4% 4% 2% Tie
23 Jun United Kingdom European Union membership referendum: the UK votes to leave European Union; David Cameron announces he will resign as Prime Minister
20–22 Jun Opinium 3,011 34% 30% 19% 6% 6% 4% 2% 4%
14–17 Jun Opinium/Observer 2,006 34% 30% 18% 6% 6% 4% 1% 4%
16 Jun Tooting by-election; killing of MP Jo Cox, leading to a suspension of referendum campaigning until 19 June
15–16 Jun ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,046 34% 29% 19% 8% 5% 4% 2% 5%
11–14 Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,257 35% 34% 10% 9% 5% 4% 3% 1%
10–13 Jun ICM/The Guardian 2,001 34% 30% 19% 8% 4% 4% 1% 4%
10–13 Jun ICM/The Guardian 1,000 34% 33% 14% 9% 4% 5% 2% 1%
7–10 Jun Opinium/Observer 2,009 35% 32% 18% 4% 5% 4% 1% 3%
31 May–3 Jun Opinium/Observer 2,007 34% 30% 18% 6% 6% 4% 2% 4%
27–29 May ICM/The Guardian 2,052 36% 31% 17% 7% 4% 4% 2% 5%
27–29 May ICM/The Guardian 1,004 36% 32% 15% 7% 4% 3% 2% 4%
17–19 May Opinium/Observer 2,008 35% 30% 18% 5% 6% 5% 2% 5%
14–16 May Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,002 36% 34% 10% 8% 5% 5% 2% 2%
13–15 May ICM/The Guardian 1,002 36% 34% 13% 7% 4% 4% 2% 2%
13–15 May ICM/The Guardian 2,048 34% 32% 17% 7% 5% 4% 1% 2%
11–12 May ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,043 36% 30% 17% 8% 5% 4% - 6%
5 May United Kingdom local elections, 2016 as well as Ogmore and Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough by-elections
26–29 Apr Opinium/Observer 2,005 38% 30% 15% 5% 5% 5% 2% 8%
25–26 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,650 30% 33% 20% 6% 8%[a] 3% - 3%
22–26 Apr BMG Research 1,375 33% 32% 18% 6% 5% 4% 2% 1%
16–18 Apr Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,026 38% 35% 11% 6% 6% 3% 1% 3%
15–17 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,003 38% 33% 13% 7% 5% 3% 1% 5%
15–17 Apr ICM/The Guardian 2,008 36% 31% 16% 7% 4% 4% 2% 5%
13–14 Apr ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,036 35% 30% 16% 8% 5% 4% 1% 5%
11–12 Apr YouGov/The Times 1,639 31% 34% 17% 8% 7%[a] 3% - 3%
29 Mar–1 Apr Opinium/Observer 1,966 33% 32% 17% 5% 6% 4% 2% 1%
24–29 Mar BMG Research 1,298 36% 31% 16% 7% 5% 5% 2% 5%
19–22 Mar Ipsos MORI 1,023 36% 34% 11% 10% 5% 3% 2% 2%
18–20 Mar ComRes/Daily Mail 1,002 37% 35% 9% 7% 5% 4% 2% 2%
16–17 Mar YouGov/The Times 1,691 33% 34% 16% 6% 6%[a] 3% 2% 1%
16 Mar George Osborne delivers the 2016 United Kingdom budget
11–13 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,001 36% 36% 11% 8% 3% 3% 1% Tie
9–10 Mar ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,059 38% 29% 16% 7% 4% 4% 1% 9%
21–23 Feb YouGov/The Times 3,482 37% 30% 16% 8% 6%[a] 3% - 7%
17–23 Feb BMG Research 1,268 38% 30% 16% 5% 5% 5% 2% 8%
19–22 Feb ComRes/Daily Mail 1,000 38% 31% 12% 8% 4% 3% 3% 7%
13–16 Feb Ipsos MORI 1,001 39% 33% 12% 6% 6% 3% 2% 6%
12–14 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,004 39% 32% 11% 7% 4% 4% 3% 7%
10–12 Feb ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,018 41% 27% 15% 9% 5% 3% 1% 14%
3–4 Feb YouGov/The Times 1,675 39% 29% 18% 6% 4%[a] 3% 1% 10%
27–28 Jan YouGov 1,735 39% 30% 17% 6% 4%[a] 3% 1% 9%
23–25 Jan Ipsos MORI 1,027 40% 31% 11% 7% 5% 4% 1% 9%
22–24 Jan ComRes/Daily Mail 1,006 37% 32% 12% 6% 4% 4% 4% 5%
15–17 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,001 40% 35% 10% 6% 4% 3% 2% 5%
15–16 Jan Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,017 37% 30% 16% 7% 5% 3% 3% 7%
13–15 Jan ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,004 40% 29% 16% 7% 4% 3% 1% 11%
8–14 Jan Panelbase/Sunday Times 2,087 39% 31% 14% 6% 5% 5% - 8%

2015[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Others Lead
18–20 Dec ICM/The Guardian 1,003 39% 34% 10% 7% 4% 3% 3% 5%
17–18 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,598 39% 29% 17% 6% 5%[a] 3% 1% 10%
15–18 Dec Opinium/Observer 1,936 38% 30% 16% 5% 6% 5% 2% 8%
12–14 Dec Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,040 38% 31% 9% 9% 5% 6% 2% 7%
11–13 Dec ComRes/Daily Mail 1,001 37% 33% 11% 7% 4% 5% 2% 4%
9–11 Dec ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,049 40% 29% 16% 7% 4% 3% 1% 11%
3 Dec Oldham West and Royton by-election
30 Nov–1 Dec YouGov/The Times 1,657 41% 30% 16% 6% 4%[a] 3% 1% 11%
20–24 Nov YouGov 4,317 38% 29% 17% 6% 5%[a] 3% 1% 9%
20–22 Nov ComRes/Daily Mail 1,000 40% 29% 11% 8% 4% 3% 4% 11%
18–20 Nov ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,067 42% 27% 15% 7% 5% 3% 1% 15%
16–17 Nov Survation/Leave.EU[b] 1,546 37% 30% 16% 6% 5% 3% 3% 7%
14–17 Nov Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,021 41% 34% 7% 7% 6% 4% - 7%
11–17 Nov BMG Research 1,334 37% 30% 15% 7% 4% 4% 2% 7%
13–15 Nov ICM/The Guardian 1,006 39% 33% 12% 7% 5% 3% 1% 6%
9–11 Nov Survation/Leave.EU[b] 2,007 36% 30% 15% 7% 5% 3% 3% 6%
22–27 Oct BMG Research 1,467 37% 31% 15% 6% 4% 5% 2% 6%
23–25 Oct ComRes/Daily Mail 1,002 38% 33% 10% 8% 3% 3% 4% 5%
17–19 Oct Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,021 36% 32% 12% 10% 5% 3% 2% 4%
13–16 Oct Opinium 1,934 37% 32% 15% 5% 6% 4% 2% 5%
14–15 Oct ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,051 42% 29% 13% 7% 5% 3% 1% 13%
9–11 Oct ICM/The Guardian 1,002 38% 34% 11% 7% 5% 3% 3% 4%
29–30 Sep YouGov/The Sun 2,064 37% 31% 17% 7% 5%[a] 2% 1% 6%
26–28 Sep ComRes/Daily Mail 1,009 39% 30% 12% 9% 4% 4% 3% 9%
21–22 Sep Survation/Huffington Post 1,008 37% 32% 13% 9% 5% 3% 1% 5%
19–22 Sep Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,255 39% 34% 7% 9% 5% 4% 1% 5%
17–18 Sep YouGov/Sunday Times 1,601 39% 31% 16% 6% 5%[a] 3% 1% 8%
15–18 Sep Opinium 1,942 37% 32% 14% 6% 5% 4% 1% 5%
16–17 Sep ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,015 42% 30% 13% 7% 5% 3% 1% 12%
11–13 Sep ICM/The Guardian 1,006 38% 32% 13% 8% 5% 3% 2% 6%
12 Sep Jeremy Corbyn is elected leader of the Labour Party and appointed Leader of the Opposition
3–4 Sep Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,004 38% 32% 13% 6% 5% 4% 2% 6%
21–23 Aug ComRes/Daily Mail 1,001 42% 28% 9% 8% 5% 6% 3% 14%
12–13 Aug ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 2,035 40% 29% 13% 8% 5% 4% 1% 11%
12–13 Aug Survation/TSSA 1,007 38% 33% 15% 6% 5% 3% 1% 5%
7–9 Aug ICM/The Guardian 1,000 40% 31% 10% 7% 5% 4% 2% 9%
24–26 Jul ComRes/Daily Mail 1,001 40% 28% 10% 7% 5% 5% 4% 12%
18–20 Jul Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,026 37% 31% 9% 10% 5% 8% 1% 6%
16 Jul Tim Farron is elected leader of the Liberal Democrats
10–12 Jul ICM/The Guardian 1,005 38% 34% 13% 6% 4% 4% 1% 4%
26–28 Jun ComRes/Daily Mail 1,002 39% 27% 11% 9% 5% 6% 3% 12%
14–16 Jun Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,005 39% 30% 8% 9% 5% 6% 2% 9%
12–14 Jun ICM/The Guardian 1,004 37% 31% 13% 8% 5% 5% 1% 6%
29–31 May ComRes/Daily Mail 1,000 41% 29% 10% 8% 5% 5% 3% 12%
25–26 May YouGov/The Sun 1,709 41% 30% 13% 7% 4%[a] 4% 1% 11%
8–9 May Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,027 40% 31% 12% 6% 5% 3% 2% 9%
7 May General Election results (GB only)[2][3] 29,980,107 37.8% 31.2% 12.9% 8.1% 4.9% 3.8% 1.4% 6.6%
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Includes those expressing a voting intention for Plaid Cymru.
  2. ^ a b This survey included respondents from Northern Ireland.

Sub-national polling[edit]

England[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
5 May 2016 United Kingdom local elections and Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough by-election
13–15 Jan 2016 ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 1,468 42% 31% 17% 6% 3% 1% 11%
11–13 Dec 2015 ComRes/Daily Mail 670 39% 33% 12% 7% 5% 2% 6%
9–11 Dec 2015 ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 1522 43% 30% 17% 7% 3% - 13%
12–13 Nov 2015 Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,015 38% 34% 18% 6% 4% 1% 4%
7 May 2015 General Election results 25,571,204 41.0% 31.6% 14.1% 8.2% 4.2% 0.9% 9.4%

Scotland[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Lab Con Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
5 May 2016 Scottish Parliament election
7–10 Sep 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,010 52% 21% 16% 6% 2% 3% - 31%
15 Aug 2015 Kezia Dugdale is elected leader of the Scottish Labour Party
3–7 Jul 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,084 51% 21% 17% 7% 2% 2% - 30%
7 May 2015 General Election results 2,910,465 50.0% 24.3% 14.9% 7.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 25.7%

Wales[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con UKIP Plaid Lib Dem Green Others Lead
30 Jun–4 Jul 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 34% 23% 16% 16% 8% 1% 2% 11%
5 May 2016 Welsh Assembly election and Ogmore by-election
19–22 Apr 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,001 37% 23% 17% 13% 7% 2% 1% 14%
7–11 Apr 2016 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,011 38% 22% 18% 13% 6% 2% 4% 16%
7–18 March 2016 Economic and Social Research Council/Welsh Election Study 3,272 36% 25% 16% 14% 6% N/A 3%[4] 11%
9–11 Feb 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,024 37% 27% 18% 13% 4% 1% - 10%
30 Nov–4 Dec 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,005 37% 27% 17% 12% 4% 2% - 10%
21–24 Sep 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,151 42% 26% 16% 10% 5% 2% - 16%
24–26 Jun 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,151 37% 28% 15% 12% 4% 3% 1% 9%
7 May 2015 General Election results 1,498,433 36.9% 27.2% 13.6% 12.1% 6.5% 2.6% 1.0% 9.7%

Northern Ireland[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size DUP SF UUP SDLP Alliance UKIP TUV Others Lead
5 May 2016 Northern Ireland Assembly election
7 May 2015 General Election Results 718,103 25.7% 24.5% 16.0% 13.9% 8.6% 2.6% 2.3% 6.6% 1.2%

London[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Con UKIP Lib Dem Green Others Lead
5 May 2016 London Assembly and Mayoral elections and United Kingdom local elections
15-19 Apr 2016 YouGov/LBC 1,017 46% 30% 13% 7% 4% 1% 16%
4–6 Jan 2016 YouGov/LBC 1,156 44% 37% 11% 4% 2% 2% 7%
8 Jun–12 Aug 2015 YouGov/LBC 3,436 42% 38% 9% 5% 4% 1% 4%
7 May 2015 General Election results 3,536,251 43.7% 34.9% 8.1% 7.7% 4.9% 0.8% 8.8%

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Westminster Voting Intention". UK Opinion Bee. Retrieved 31 January 2015. 
  2. ^ "Election 2015: Results - National". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  3. ^ "Election 2015: Results - Northern Ireland". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015. 
  4. ^ including Green

External links[edit]