Opinion polling on Scottish independence

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Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns well over 240 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might impact the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls including Brexit, COVID-19 and party leadership changes.

Polls in the main table, using the same question, still show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.

Graphical summary[edit]

Graph Methodology

The graphs include all polls from the main table, excluding those which are noted as using non-standard questions.

The date associated with each poll is the mid-point of the survey period, i.e (start+end)/2.

The centered moving averages are the averages of the last 10 polls, weighted by sample size. The date of the moving average is the weighted average poll date. The value of the moving average is variously the percentage for Yes, No, Undecided and the margin ex-undecideds of those polls.

The margin ex-undecideds value for each poll is calculated as (No-Yes)/(No+Yes).

The final chart is the distribution of a given organisations polls compared to the moving average margin ex-undecideds. The value of the moving average at the poll's date is computed by linear interpolation between adjacent values of the moving average. The difference between that value and the poll's value is shown as a distribution.

Frequently time axis dates may be in the future for long-term graphs. This is done to avoid truncation of datapoints at the edge of the chart area.


Polls using the 2014 referendum question[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland be an independent country? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided
09-12 Apr 2024 Norstat/The Sunday Times 1,086 44% 51% 5% 5%
06-07 Apr 2024 Redfield and Wilton 1,000 44% 42% 14% 2%
25 Mar-02 Apr 2024 YouGov 1,100 41% 46% 13% 5% [a]
10–11 Mar 2024 Redfield and Wilton 1,000 43% 46% 11% 3%
3–4 Feb 2024 Redfield and Wilton 1,000 43% 47% 10% 4%
25–31 Jan 2024 Ipsos 1,005 50% 44% 5% 6%
23–25 Jan 2024 Survation/True North 1,029 43% 47% 10% 4%
22–25 Jan 2024 Norstat/The Sunday Times 1,007 47% 48% 4% 1%
11–24 Jan 2024 FindOutNow 842 49% 45% 6% 4%
9–11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton 1,040 46% 47% 7% 1%
26–27 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,054 46% 48% 6% 2%
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos Scotland 1,000 51% 43% 5% 8%
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,092 45% 50% 5% 5%
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) 1,244 38% 46% 11% 8% [b]
6–18 Oct 2023 Focaldata/Scotland in Union 1,037 40% 48% 9% 8% [c]
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,002 45% 47% 8% 2%
2–5 Oct 2023 Panelbase 1,022 45% 49% 6% 4%
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,095 46% 48% 6% 2%
8–12 Sep 2023 YouGov 1,103 39% 44% 14% 5% [d]
5–14 Sep 2023 Opinium/Tony Blair Institute 1,004 45% 41% 9% 4% [e]
5–11 Sep 2023 Find Out Now/Independent Voices 1,402 49% 46% 4% 4% [f]
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,100 44% 49% 6% 5%
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation 1,002 43% 47% 10% 4%
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov 1,086 42% 44% 8% 2%
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,050 45% 48% 7% 3%
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,030 45% 49% 6% 4%
26–29 Jun 2023 Yougov 1,100 37% 46% 9% 9%
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation 1,915 42% 47% 10% 5%
13–20 Jun 2023 Find Out Now/Independent Voices 1,035 48% 45% 7% 3% [g]
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,007 44% 50% 6% 6%
9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,018 46% 47% 7% 1%
9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) 1,244 36% 46% 11% 10%
7–12 Jun 2023 Find Out Now/Alba Party 558 43% 39% 11% 4% [h][i]
3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,466 43% 50% 7% 7%
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos/STV 1,100 51% 45% 4% 6%
27 Apr–3 May 2023 Survation/True North 1,009 44% 47% 9% 3%
30 Apr–2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,244 42% 52% 6% 10%
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov/ The Times 1,032 39% 45% 9% 6%
29 Mar–3 Apr 2023 Survation 1,007 42% 47% 10% 5%
31 Mar–1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 44% 50% 6% 6%
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta/Scotsman 1,009 45% 47% 8% 2%
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase/ The Sunday Times 1,089 46% 49% 5% 3%
27–29 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf becomes leader of the SNP and then First Minister of Scotland
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov/Sky News 1,002 39% 47% 10% 8%
8–10 Mar 2023 Survation/DC Thomson 1,037 40% 48% 12% 8% [j]
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,013 45% 49% 5% 4%
1–9 Mar 2023 Find Out Now/Scot Goes Pop 1,266 50% 46% 4% 4%
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies[1] 1,050 42% 51% 8% 9%
22–23 Feb 2023 TechneUK 502 39% 47% 14% 8% [k]
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,017 42% 49% 9% 7%
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,004 44% 46% 9% 2%
15 Feb 2023 Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign as First Minister of Scotland
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) 1,239 40% 48% 8% 8%
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation 1,070 44% 45% 11% 1%
6–13 Feb 2023 Panelbase/Believe in Scotland 2,006 44% 48% 8% 4%
26 Jan–3 Feb 2023 Lord Ashcroft 2,105 37% 48% 12% 11% [l]
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,088 40% 46% 10% 6%
11–18 Jan 2023 FindOutNow/The National 1,094 52% 44% 3% 8%
17 Jan 2023 UK Government blocks Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill by invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation/TrueNorth 1,002 41% 47% 11% 6%
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,048 44% 46% 9% 2%
12–16 Dec 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,004 49% 45% 6% 4%
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,090 47% 42% 8% 5%
1–8 Dec 2022 FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus 1,094 51% 43% 6% 8%
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 Ipsos/STV 1,065 53% 42% 4% 11%
26–27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 49% 45% 5% 4%
22–25 Nov 2022 YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) 1,210 43% 42% 8% 1%
23 Nov 2022 Supreme Court rules the Scottish Parliament requires consent of the UK Government to legislate a second independence referendum
25 Oct 2022 Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
20 Oct 2022 Liz Truss announces her intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
13–19 Oct 2022 Ipsos 2,086 50% 43% 4% 7% [m]
7–10 Oct 2022 Panelbase/Alba Party 1,018 46% 49% 5% 3%
5–7 Oct 2022 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,017 47% 47% 6% Tied
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,067 43% 45% 7% 2%
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,029 45% 46% 8% 1%
14–16 Sep 2022 Deltapoll/Sun in Scotland 659 42% 47% 7% 5% [n]
8 Sep 2022 Elizabeth II dies and is succeeded by her son, Charles III
6 Sep 2022 Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,133 46% 48% 6% 2%
7 July 2022 Boris Johnson announces his intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
29 Jun–1 Jul 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,010 48% 47% 5% 1%
29–30 Jun 2022 Techne UK 501 39% 45% 15% 6% [o]
28 Jun 2022 Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to hold an independence referendum on 19 October 2023
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,029 44% 46% 10% 2%
23–29 May 2022 Ipsos/STV 1,000 45% 46% 8% 1%
18–23 May 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,115 38% 46% 11% 8%
5 May 2022 2022 Scottish local elections
26 Apr–3 May 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,010 45% 47% 7% 2%
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,009 47% 49% 5% 2%
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG/Herald 1,012 43% 49% 8% 6%
25–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/TheseIslands 519 39% 44% 13% 5% [p]
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation/Ballot Box Scotland 1,002 42% 47% 11% 5%
10–16 Mar 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,008 44% 49% 7% 5%
24–28 Feb 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Economist 1,651 45% 46% 9% 1%
24 Feb 2022 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
3–9 Feb 2022 Ipsos 1,163 50% 43% 6% 7% [q]
14–18 Jan 2022 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,004 46% 46% 8% Tied
15–22 Dec 2021 Opinium/Daily Record 1,328 44% 44% 12% Tied [r]
22–29 Nov 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,107 52% 43% 4% 9%
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,060 40% 46% 14% 6%
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,781 45% 47% 8% 2%
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotsman 1,005 45% 48% 7% 3%
20–26 Oct 2021 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,001 44% 50% 5% 6%
18 Sep 2021 Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Politico 1,000 44% 47% 9% 3%
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 2,003 45% 49% 6% 4%
3–9 Sep 2021 Savanta ComRes Sunday Times 1,016 45% 48% 7% 3%
1–8 Sep 2021 Stack Data Strategy/UKonward 1,007 45% 49% 6% 4%
3–8 Sep 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,014 44% 43% 13% 1%
4–5 Aug 2021 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,000 44% 47% 9% 3%
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,287 45% 48% 7% 3%
11–14 May 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotland on Sunday 1,003 43% 49% 8% 6%
7–8 May 2021 Stack Data/Our Scottish Future 1,000 48% 48% 4% Tied [s]
6 May 2021 2021 Scottish Parliament election
30 Apr–4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 42% 50% 8% 8%
2–4 May 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,144 41% 46% 13% 5%
30 Apr–4 May 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,008 43% 47% 10% 4%
28 Apr–3 May 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,015 45% 45% 8% Tied
30 Apr–3 May 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,502 47% 47% 6% Tied
28–30 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,096 48% 45% 6% 3%
27–30 Apr 2021 BMG/Herald 1,023 47% 47% 7% Tied
23–27 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 42% 49% 8% 7%
23–26 Apr 2021 Survation/Good Morning Britain 1,008 42% 47% 11% 5%
21–26 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,075 47% 48% 6% 1%
21–23 Apr 2021 Survation/These Islands 1,006 44% 46% 10% 2%
20–22 Apr 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,037 44% 45% 11% 1%
16–20 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,001 44% 48% 8% 4%
16–20 Apr 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,204 39% 45% 16% 6%
7–19 Apr 2021 Lord Ashcroft 2,017 44% 45% 11% 1% [l]
9–12 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Believe in Scotland 1,002 48% 46% 6% 2%
2–7 Apr 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,007 45% 45% 9% Tied
1–6 Apr 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,023 47% 45% 6% 2%
29 Mar–4 Apr 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,038 49% 45% 6% 4%
30 Mar–1 Apr 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,009 48% 47% 5% 1%
29–30 Mar 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 1,021 45% 44% 11% 1%
23–26 Mar 2021 Find Out Now/Daily Express 1,022 48% 44% 8% 4%
16–19 Mar 2021 BMG/Herald 1,021 49% 46% 5% 3%
11–18 Mar 2021 Survation/DC Thomson 2,047 43% 45% 12% 2%
11–16 Mar 2021 Opinium/Sky News 1,096 45% 43% 8% 2%
5–10 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,009 45% 47% 8% 2%
5–9 Mar 2021 Hanbury Strategy 1,502 50% 43% 8% 6%
4–8 Mar 2021 YouGov/The Times 1,100 41% 43% 14% 2%
4–5 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,015 43% 46% 10% 3% [t]
3–5 Mar 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,013 46% 47% 7% 1%
26 Feb–4 Mar 2021 Savanta ComRes/Daily Express 1,004 43% 45% 12% 2%
12 Feb–1 Mar 2021 Hanbury Strategy 3,946 52% 41% 7% 11%
27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar becomes leader of Scottish Labour
25–26 Feb 2021 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 43% 44% 13% 1%
18–22 Feb 2021 Savanta ComRes/ITV News 1,008 48% 44% 8% 4%
15–21 Feb 2021 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,031 48% 44% 7% 4%
4–9 Feb 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,002 43% 46% 11% 3% [u]
19–22 Jan 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,206 49% 44% 7% 5%
14 Jan 2021 Richard Leonard resigns as leader of Scottish Labour
11–13 Jan 2021 Survation/Scot Goes Pop 1,020 45% 43% 12% 2%
8–13 Jan 2021 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,016 47% 43% 10% 4% [u]
31 Dec 2020 The post-Brexit transition period ends
11–15 Dec 2020 Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman 1,013 49% 39% 12% 10% [u]
8 Dec 2020 COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom commences
2–7 Dec 2020 Survation 1,018 44% 42% 14% 2%
20–26 Nov 2020 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,006 51% 41% 8% 10%
5–11 Nov 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,020 51% 40% 8% 11%
6–10 Nov 2020 YouGov 1,089 43% 42% 10% 1%
28 Oct–3 Nov 2020 Survation 1,071 47% 40% 13% 7%
2–9 Oct 2020 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,045 52% 39% 9% 13%
9 Oct 2020 Savanta ComRes 1,003 47% 42% 11% 5%
25 Sep–5 Oct 2020 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,093 49% 42% 9% 7% [v]
17–21 Sep 2020 JL Partners 1,016 51% 40% 7% 11% [w]
2–7 Sep 2020 Survation 1,018 46% 40% 13% 6%
12–18 Aug 2020 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,011 51% 42% 7% 9%
6–13 Aug 2020 Savanta ComRes 1,008 49% 42% 9% 7%
6–10 Aug 2020 YouGov/The Times 1,142 45% 40% 9% 5%
5 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jul 2020 Jackson Carlaw resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jun–3 Jul 2020 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,026 50% 43% 7% 7%
15–19 Jun 2020 Panelbase/Business for Scotland 1,070 50% 43% 7% 7%
1–5 Jun 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,022 48% 45% 8% 3%
1–5 May 2020 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,086 46% 46% 7% Tied
24–26 Mar 2020 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,023 46% 47% 7% 1%
1 March 2020 COVID-19 pandemic confirmed to have spread to Scotland
14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives
7–14 Feb 2020 YouGov/Hanbury Strategy 2,587 45% 46% 8% 1% [x][y]
31 Jan 2020 The United Kingdom leaves the European Union
28–31 Jan 2020 Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop 1,016 49% 46% 6% 3%
22–27 Jan 2020 YouGov 1,039 43% 42% 10% 1%
20–22 Jan 2020 Survation/Progress Scotland 1,019 45% 45% 10% Tied
12 Dec 2019 2019 United Kingdom general election
10–11 Dec 2019 Survation/The Courier 1,012 46% 47% 7% 1%
3–6 Dec 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,020 44% 50% 6% 6%
3–6 Dec 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,008 38% 48% 12% 10%
19–25 Nov 2019 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,046 48% 48% 4% Tied
20–22 Nov 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,009 45% 47% 7% 2%
9–11 Oct 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,003 46% 47% 7% 1%
30 Sep–9 Oct 2019 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,032 40% 51% 9% 11% [z]
30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,059 43% 44% 13% 1%
29 Aug 2019 Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives
30 Jul–2 Aug 2019 Lord Ashcroft 1,019 46% 43% 12% 3% [l][x]
24 Jul 2019 Boris Johnson becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
18–20 Jun 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 46% 48% 6% 2%
24 May 2019 Theresa May announces her resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 May 2019 2019 European Parliament election
14–17 May 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 45% 49% 6% 4%
24–26 Apr 2019 YouGov/The Times 1,029 44% 45% 11% 1%
18–24 Apr 2019 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,018 44% 49% 7% 5%
15–21 Mar 2019 Survation/Progress Scotland 2,041 35% 56% 8% 21% [aa]
30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,028 45% 51% 4% 6%
2–7 Nov 2018 Panelbase/Constitutional Commission 1,050 43% 52% 5% 9%
18–21 Oct 2018 Survation/Daily Record 1,017 41% 51% 7% 10%
3–5 Oct 2018 Survation/Scottish National Party 1,013 41% 49% 8% 8%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 41% 52% 7% 11%
28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 Survation/Sunday Post 1,036 43% 49% 8% 6%
24–29 Aug 2018 Deltapoll/OFOC & Best for Britain 1,022 45% 47% 8% 2% [ab]
5–10 Jul 2018 Survation/Daily Record 1,002 41% 47% 12% 6% [x]
8–13 Jun 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 41% 53% 6% 12%
1–5 Jun 2018 YouGov/The Times 1,075 41% 50% 6% 9%
30 May–5 Jun 2018 YouGov/Future of England 1,052 41% 47% 12% 6% [ac][x]
23–28 Mar 2018 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,037 41% 53% 6% 12%
5–11 Mar 2018 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,050 46% 50% 4% 4% [x]
24–28 Jan 2018 Survation/Daily Record 1,029 42% 50% 8% 8%
12–16 Jan 2018 YouGov/The Times 1,002 37% 50% 10% 13% [x]
1–5 Dec 2017 Survation/Sunday Post 1,006 42% 49% 8% 7%
27–30 Nov 2017 Survation/Daily Record 1,017 42% 48% 10% 6%
2–5 Oct 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,135 39% 50% 7% 11% [x]
8–12 Sep 2017 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,016 42% 49% 9% 7%
31 Aug–7 Sep 2017 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 40% 53% 6% 13%
9–13 Jun 2017 Survation/Daily Record 1,037 39% 53% 7% 14%
8 Jun 2017 2017 United Kingdom general election
6–7 Jun 2017 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 36% 56% 7% 20%
2–7 Jun 2017 Panelbase/TheTimes 1,106 41% 53% 6% 12%
1–5 Jun 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,093 38% 50% 8% 12% [x]
31 May–2 Jun 2017 Survation/Sunday Post 1,024 42% 50% 8% 8%
22–27 May 2017 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,016 45% 51% 3% 6% [x]
15–18 May 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,032 39% 49% 8% 10% [x]
4 May 2017 2017 Scottish local elections
24–27 Apr 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,017 40% 49% 8% 9% [x]
18–21 Apr 2017 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,029 43% 52% 5% 9%
18–21 Apr 2017 Survation/Sunday Post 1,018 43% 48% 9% 5% [x]
7–11 Apr 2017 BMG/Herald 1,041 43% 45% 12% 2%
29 Mar–11 Apr 2017 Kantar 1,060 37% 55% 8% 18%
13–17 Mar 2017 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,008 42% 53% 5% 11%
9–14 Mar 2017 YouGov/The Times 1,028 37% 48% 11% 11% [x]
8–13 Mar 2017 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,019 43% 48% 9% 5%
13 Mar 2017 Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention to seek approval for a Section 30 order enabling an independence referendum
24 Feb–6 Mar 2017 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,029 47% 46% 6% 1%
23–27 Feb 2017 BMG/Herald 1,009 41% 44% 15% 3%
7–13 Feb 2017 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,028 44% 51% 6% 7%
26–31 Jan 2017 BMG/Herald 1,067 43% 45% 10% 2%
20–26 Jan 2017 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,020 43% 51% 7% 8%
9–16 Dec 2016 BMG/Herald 1,002 40% 47% 13% 7%
29 Aug–16 Dec 2016 YouGov 3,166 39% 47% 11% 8% [x]
24–29 Nov 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,134 38% 49% 13% 11%
9–15 Sep 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 44% 50% 7% 6%
5–11 Sep 2016 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 45% 50% 5% 5%
5–10 Sep 2016 Survation 1,073 42% 48% 10% 6%
10 Aug–4 Sep 2016 TNS 1,047 41% 47% 12% 6%
29–31 Aug 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,039 40% 46% 13% 6% [x]
20–25 Jul 2016 YouGov 1,005 40% 45% 14% 5% [x]
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
24–28 Jun 2016 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,055 47% 41% 12% 6%
25–26 Jun 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 626 47% 44% 8% 3% [ad]
25 Jun 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,002 48% 41% 9% 7%
24 Jun 2016 David Cameron announces his resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
23 Jun 2016 2016 EU membership referendum
5 May 2016 2016 Scottish Parliament election
2–4 May 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,445 41% 48% 12% 7%
23–28 Apr 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,074 44% 49% 6% 5%
15–20 Apr 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,005 44% 47% 9% 3%
6–15 Apr 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 45% 51% 5% 6%
7–11 Apr 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,012 41% 49% 10% 8%
10–17 Mar 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,051 44% 47% 9% 3%
7–9 Mar 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,070 40% 47% 12% 7%
25–29 Feb 2016 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,022 44% 49% 7% 5%
11–16 Feb 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,006 42% 48% 9% 6%
1–7 Feb 2016 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,000 49% 45% 5% 4%
1–4 Feb 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,022 43% 51% 7% 8%
8–14 Jan 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,053 44% 50% 7% 6%
8–12 Jan 2016 Survation/Daily Record 1,029 45% 47% 8% 2%
6–13 Nov 2015 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,074 47% 49% 5% 2%
9–13 Oct 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,026 45% 49% 6% 4%
7–10 Sep 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,010 45% 46% 9% 1%
7–10 Sep 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,110 45% 49% 6% 4%
4–10 Sep 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,005 45% 51% 3% 6%
12 Aug–1 Sep 2015 TNS 1,023 47% 42% 11% 5%
24–30 Aug 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,002 53% 44% 3% 9%
3–7 Jul 2015 Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,084 43% 47% 10% 4%
26 Jun–3 Jul 2015 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,002 45% 50% 5% 5%
19–21 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Post 1,108 44% 49% 7% 5%
7 May 2015 2015 United Kingdom general election.
3–6 May 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,660 44% 47% 9% 3%
29 Apr–1 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,162 43% 49% 8% 6%
22–27 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,015 46% 47% 7% 1%
20–23 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,044 45% 48% 7% 3%
8–9 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,056 46% 49% 6% 3%
13–19 Mar 2015 ICM/Guardian 1,002 41% 48% 11% 7%
12–17 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,027 45% 43% 11% 2%
10–12 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,049 45% 48% 8% 3%
12–17 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 43% 47% 10% 4%
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,001 49% 44% 7% 5%
9–11 Dec 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 48% 48% 4% Tied
9–11 Dec 2014 YouGov/The Sun 1,081 48% 45% 6% 3%
27 Nov 2014 Release of Smith Commission report.
19 Nov 2014 Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland.
6–13 Nov 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 44% 49% 7% 5%
30 Oct–5 Nov 2014 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 982 46% 45% 8% 1%
27–30 Oct 2014 YouGov/The Times 1,078 49% 45% 6% 4%
18 September 2014 2014 Scottish independence referendum results 3,623,344 44.7% 55.3% 10.6%

Other polling formats[edit]

Polls using Remain / Leave Question[edit]

Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.

The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom? Lead Notes
Leave Remain Undecided
6-18 Oct 2023 Focaldata/These Islands 1,037 33% 55% 13% 22%
22 Dec-01 Jan 2023 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,025 37% 54% 9% 17%
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,011 36% 51% 13% 15%
29 Apr–3 May 2022 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,050 38% 52% 11% 14%
25–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/These Islands 510 35% 50% 9% 15% [ae]
18–22 Nov 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,045 38% 54% 8% 16%
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,040 39% 52% 9% 13%
9–12 Mar 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,011 37% 49% 10% 12%
10–12 Sep 2020 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,008 37% 47% 11% 10%
12–16 Sep 2019 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,003 38% 55% 9% 17%
18–23 Apr 2019 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,012 36% 56% 7% 20%
9–13 Nov 2018 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,013 36% 55% 9% 19%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 BMG/Herald 1,010 39% 47% 15% 8%
18 September 2014 2014 Scottish independence referendum results 3,623,344 44.7% 55.3% 10.6%

Polls on a "de facto" referendum[edit]

On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament.[2] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the next UK general election as a de facto independence referendum. Question asked is stated in notes field.

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Grn Lab Con Lib Other Undecided Lead (overall lead) Notes
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta/The Scotsman 1,004 36% 29% 17% 5% 2% 10% 15% [af]
11–18 Jan 2023 FindOutNow/The National 1,094 52% 2% 23% 12% 7% 4% 12% [ag]
10-12 Jan 2023 Survation/True North 1,002 38% 22% 16% 6% 2% 11% 6% [ah]
16-21 Dec 2022 Savanta/Scotsman 1,048 37% 27% 18% 5% 2% 10% 13% [ai]
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI/STV 1,065 53% 2% 24% 13% 6% 2% 12% [aj]
Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead Notes
23 Nov 2022 Find Out Now/Channel 4 News 1,006 50% 33% 16% 17% [ak]

Scottish Social Attitudes Survey[edit]

Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.

Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?

  1. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
  2. Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
  3. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
  4. Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
  5. Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.

A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".

Year Polling organisation/client Independence Devolution No Parliament
2021 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 52% 38% 8%
2019 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 51% 36% 7%
2017 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 45% 41% 8%
2016 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 46% 42% 8%
2015 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 39% 49% 6%
2014 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 33% 50% 7%
2013 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 29% 55% 9%
2012 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 23% 61% 11%
2011 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 32% 58% 6%
2010 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 23% 61% 10%
2009 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 28% 56% 8%
2007 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 24% 62% 9%
2006 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 30% 54% 14%
2005 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 35% 44% 14%
2004 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 32% 45% 17%
2003 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 26% 56% 13%
2002 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 30% 52% 13%
2001 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 27% 59% 9%
2000 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 30% 55% 12%
1999 Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 27% 59% 10%

Issues around a second independence referendum[edit]

Timing of a second referendum[edit]

Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic

Date(s) conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. Lead Notes
In 2023 Next 12 Months Next 2 Years In the next 2–5 years More than 5 Years No Referendum
Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K
8 - 13 Sep 2023 YouGov 1,103 27% 62% 11% 45% 43% 12% [al]
2 - 4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,100 42% 42% 12% 42% 40% 14%
5 - 6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,050 41% 40% 15% 44% 39% 13%
1 - 2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,030 41% 40% 12% 41% 38% 14%
26 - 29 Jun 2023 YouGov 1,100 45% 42% 13% [am]
3 - 5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,466 42% 40% 13% 42% 39% 15%
30 Apr- 2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1295 37% 47% 11% 39% 42% 14%
17-20 Apr 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,032 20% 69% 12% 44% 42% 14%
31 Mar-1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,008 41% 44% 15% 43% 41% 16%
2-5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,050 34% 49% 18% 37% 44% 20%
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov/The Times 1,017 22% 68% 10% 45% 44% 11%
23-26 Jan 2023 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,088 28% 62% 10% 47% 42% 10%
26-27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 46% 43% 11% 46% 40% 14%
18–23 May 2022 YouGov/The Times 1,115 27% 60% 13% 21% 68% 11% 46% 41% 13%
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,009 24% 31% 45% 10%
29–31 Mar 2022 YouGov/These Islands 1.029 36% 53% 12% 17%
18-22 Nov 2021 YouGov/Times 1,060 34% 50% 16% 28% 55% 17% 44% 41% 15%
9-12 Nov 2021 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,781 19% 34% 46% 7%
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes/Scotsman 1,005 14% 17% 17% 23% 23% 48% [an]
18 Sep 2021 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 34% 50% 16% 41% 42% 17%
6-10 Sept 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 2,003 17% 36% 47% 6%
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 Survation/Scotland in Union 1,040 38% 52% 9% 14%
4-5 Aug 2021 Redfield & Wilton 1,000 40% 47% 13% 42% 40% 17%
16-24 June 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,287 19% 35% 46% 8%
28-30 April 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,096 22% 33% 45% 10%
30 Mar-1 April 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,009 25% 29% 46% 7%
3-5 March 2021 Panelbase/SundayTimes 1,013 25% 30% 45% 10%

Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should the Scottish Government, need to get permission from the UK Government to run a referendum on Scottish independence? Notes
Should Should Not Undecided
26-29 Jun 2023 Yougov 1,100 40% 50% 10%
17-20 Apr 2023 YouGov 1.032 39% 51% 10%
17-20 Feb 2023 YouGov 1,017 40% 51% 9%

UK-wide polling[edit]

Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.

Polls using 2014 referendum question

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should Scotland be an independent country? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided
22–23 Feb 2023 TechneUK 1,633 9% 71% 20% 62%
19-21 Jan 2023 DeltaPoll/Mail on Sunday 1,563 25% 40% 15% 15%
29-30 June 2022 Techne 1,614 10% 69% 21% 59%
18 Jun–2 Jul 2021 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 3,891 17% 54% 29% 37%

On the Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided/Dont Know
29–2 Dec 2022 Omnisis/Byline Times 1,189 42% 35% 23% 7% [ao]

Polling on a second referendum

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Should there be a Referendum on Scottish Independence? Lead Notes
Yes No Undecided/Dont Know
19-21 Jan 2023 Deltapoll/Mail On Sunday 1,563 29% 48% 28% 19% [ap]

Timing of a Second Independence Referendum

Date(s) conducted Polling organisation/client Sample size Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. No Referendum Lead Notes
In 2023 Next 12 Months Next 2 Years In the next 2–5 years More than 5 Years
Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K Yes No D/K
18/6 - 2/7/21 Panelbase/The Sunday Times 3891 18% 27% 55%

British Social Attitudes Survey[edit]

Year Polling organisation/client Independence Devolution No Parliament
2021 British Social Attitudes Survey 25% 54% 15%
2020 British Social Attitudes Survey 24% 54% 14%
2017 British Social Attitudes Survey 22% 55% 15%
2015 British Social Attitudes Survey 23% 49% 20%
2013 British Social Attitudes Survey 20% 49% 18%
2012 British Social Attitudes Survey 25% 43% 23%
2011 British Social Attitudes Survey 26% 44% 19%
2007 British Social Attitudes Survey 19% 48% 18%
2003 British Social Attitudes Survey 17% 58% 13%
2002 British Social Attitudes Survey 19% 52% 15%
2001 British Social Attitudes Survey 19% 60% 11%
2000 British Social Attitudes Survey 19% 52% 17%
1999 British Social Attitudes Survey 21% 57% 14%
1997 British Election Study 14% 55% 23%

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ "Don't know" figure includes those who would not vote and refused to answer.
  2. ^ Yougov advise that this series of polls should not be compared to its usual polling, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45269-nicola-sturgeons-legacy-according-scots
  3. ^ Unusually this poll asked the Indy Q twice in the same poll, of samples of just over 500 each and then merged them together, questions should be borne in mind as to the margin of error for what is essentially 2 smaller polls
  4. ^ "Don't know" figure includes those who would not vote and refused to answer.
  5. ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  6. ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  7. ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  8. ^ Findoutnow stated "This was not a standard indyref voting intention poll so was not adjusted for turnout likelihood. That's why undecideds are up, and others down" https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1668263765937102849
  9. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  10. ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  11. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
  12. ^ a b c Lord Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council
  13. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
  14. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds.
  15. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote.
  16. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  17. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
  18. ^ Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
  19. ^ Results are limited to only those who state they will definitely vote. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded.
  20. ^ The voting intention was not weighted by likelihood to vote. Savanta ComRes said that the poll result "should not be treated as a headline Savanta ComRes voting intention".
  21. ^ a b c Savanta ComRes revised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
  22. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  23. ^ JL Partners was not a member of the British Polling Council at the time of this poll
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
  25. ^ Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given.
  26. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  27. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
  28. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
  29. ^ Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "Do you agree that Scotland should become an independent country?" and given the options of "Yes" and "No".
  30. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  31. ^ As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents.
  32. ^ Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
  33. ^ Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a "de facto" referendum on independence. Which party will you vote for?
  34. ^ Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?"
  35. ^ Question asked. "If the SNP did campaign on the next General Election as a 'de facto' second Scottish independence referendum, which of the following parties do you think you would vote for, or would you vote for another party?"
  36. ^ Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? /Which party are you most inclined to support?"
  37. ^ Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK?"
  38. ^ The question asked was whether there should be a referendum in 2024
  39. ^ The poll also asked whether there should be a referendum 'Soon after the next general election', to which the response was: Yes 35%, No 52%, Don't Know 13%
  40. ^ Data in More than 5 years is amalgamation of 5 to 10 years and more than 10 years
  41. ^ Question asked was "Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year?"
  42. ^ Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence?"

References[edit]

  1. ^ Strategies, Redfield & Wilton (4 April 2023). "Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (31 March - 1 April 2023)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. Retrieved 16 April 2023.
  2. ^ https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf

External links[edit]