Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016

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Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016
Flag of Oregon.svg
← 2014 November 8, 2016 2018 →

  Oregon Secretary of State Kate Brown, cropped (cropped).jpg Bud Pierce headshot.jpg
Nominee Kate Brown Bud Pierce
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families none
Popular vote 985,027 845,609
Percentage 50.9% 43.1%

Oregon Governor Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County Results

Brown:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Pierce:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election

Kate Brown
Democratic

Elected Governor

Kate Brown
Democratic

The 2016 Oregon special gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

The election determined who would fill the remaining two years of the term of Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber, who was re-elected in 2014 and resigned in February 2015. Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown, who as Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship, ran for election to the office. In primary elections held on May 17, Brown easily captured the Democratic nomination and the Republicans picked Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.

Brown won the election and became the first openly LGBT person elected to a term as governor in U.S. history.

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Julian Bell, critical care and pulmonary medicine specialist[1]
  • Kate Brown, incumbent Governor[2]
  • Chet Chance, professional driver[3]
  • Kevin M. Forsythe, Walmart employee[3]
  • Steve Johnson, health worker[3][4]
  • Dave Stauffer, environmental engineer[3]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Brown >= 60%
  Brown >= 70%
  Brown >= 80%
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Democratic primary[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Katherine Brown (Incumbent) 494,890 83.03
Democratic Julian Bell 49,313 8.27
Democratic Dave Stauffer 16,108 2.70
Democratic Steve Johnson 13,363 2.24
Democratic Kevin M. Forsythe 10,147 1.70
Democratic Chet Chance 5,636 0.95
Democratic Write-ins 6,595 1.11
Total votes 596,052 100

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Allen
Alley
Bruce
Cuff
Bob
Forthan
Bob
Neimeyer
Bud
Pierce
Undecided
DHM Research May 6–9, 2016 324 ± 5.7% 22% 3% 1% 5% 25% 44%

Results[edit]

Results by county. Red indicates a win by Pierce, yellow a win by Alley.
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Republican primary[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican William C. Pierce 171,158 47.66
Republican Allen Alley 103,388 28.79
Republican Bruce Cuff 41,598 11.58
Republican Bob Niemeyer 35,669 9.93
Republican Bob Forthan 4,290 1.19
Republican Write-ins 3,020 0.84
Total votes 359,123 100

Independent Party primary[edit]

The Independent Party of Oregon officially qualified as a major party on August 17, 2015.[24]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Patrick Barney[3]
  • Cliff Thomason, realtor[3]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by county. Blue indicates a win by Thomason, yellow a win by Barney.
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Independent primary[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Cliff Thomason 9,806 34.89
Independent Patrick Barney 6,840 24.34
Independent Write-ins 11,460 40.77
Total votes 28,106 100

Minor parties[edit]

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[29] Likely D November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] Safe D November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[31] Safe D November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[32] Safe D November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[33] Likely D November 1, 2016

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kate
Brown (D)
Bud
Pierce (R)
Cliff
Thomason (I)
James
Foster (L)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,595 ± 4.6% 56% 41% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 1,483 ± 4.6% 56% 40% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 1,150 ± 4.6% 56% 40% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 934 ± 4.6% 55% 41% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 809 ± 4.6% 54% 41% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 743 ± 4.6% 54% 42% 4%
FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research October 24–29, 2016 504 ± 4.4% 42% 33% 4% 3% 4% 15%
Clout Research (R) October 20–21, 2016 928 ± 3.2% 45% 43% 6% 6%
KGW Oregonian/Riley Research October 4–14, 2016 608 ± 4.0% 48% 34% 13%
Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research October 6–13, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 33% 4% 3% 12%
KATU-TV/SurveyUSA October 10–12, 2016 654 ± 3.9% 46% 42% 4% 8%
iCitizen September 2–7, 2016 610 ± 4.0% 44% 27% 3% 3% 23%
KATU-TV/DHM Research September 1–6, 2016 517 ± 4.3% 43% 35% 18%
Clout Research (R) July 9–13, 2016 701 ± 3.7% 43% 42% 5% 2% 7%
iCitizen June 23–27, 2016 555 ± 4.0% 42% 35% 23%
Action Solutions June 1–2, 2016 600 ± 5.7% 39% 37% 24%
Moore Information April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 45% 27% 28%

→ Indicates an internal poll conducted on behalf of Bud Pierce.

Results[edit]

General election results [34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kate Brown (Incumbent) 985,027 50.62%
Republican William C. Pierce 845,609 43.45%
Independent Cliff Thomason 47,481 2.44%
Libertarian James Foster 45,191 2.32%
Constitution Aaron Donald Auer 19,400 1.00%
write-ins 3,338 0.17%
Total votes 1,946,046 100.00%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Mortensen, Camilla (October 1, 2015). "Climate Change Fuels a Run For Governor". Eugene Weekly. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  2. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (September 18, 2015) "Kate Brown makes clear she's running for governor", The Oregonian. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Kullgren, Ian (March 9, 2016). "Election 2016: Who's running for office in Oregon? Portland? We've got your list right here". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
  4. ^ http://sbjforgovernor.org
  5. ^ a b c Topaz, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Meet Kate Brown". Politico. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  6. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (October 6, 2015). "Oregon labor commissioner announces run for secretary of state". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  7. ^ Schmidt, Brad (September 9, 2015). "Ted Wheeler: 'I'm running for mayor of Portland'". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  8. ^ a b c "May 17, 2016 Primary Election Results" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2016.
  9. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (March 7, 2016). "Shakeup in governor's race: Allen Alley wants Republican nomination". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 7, 2016.
  10. ^ a b Friedman, Gordeon (March 2, 2016). "Report: Allen Alley running for Oregon governor". KGW. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
  11. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (September 29, 2015). "Another Republican has filed for the 2016 Oregon governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  12. ^ "About Our Clinic". Hematology Oncology of Salem. Retrieved 2016-01-28.
  13. ^ Gray, Chris (Sep 24, 2015). "The Lund Report". The Lund Report. Retrieved 2016-01-28.
  14. ^ Kullgren, Ian K. (March 16, 2015). "Republican doctor from Salem contemplates gubernatorial run". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 16, 2015.
  15. ^ "Kate Brown confirms she'll run for governor". The Associated Press. September 18, 2015. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
  16. ^ a b Forrester, Steve (April 19, 2015). "Middle-ground Republican could give Brown a race". The Daily Astorian. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
  17. ^ Anderson, Taylor W. (July 13, 2015). "Buehler says he may run for Oregon governor in 2016". The Bulletin. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
  18. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (August 25, 2015). "Knute Buehler says he won't run for governor, wants to stay in House". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  19. ^ Glucklich, Elon (June 30, 2015). "Lane County Commissioner Sid Leiken out of Oregon governor's race, seeks Secretary of State post instead". The Register-Guard. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
  20. ^ Hubbard, Saul (April 21, 2015). "GOP Rep. Julie Parrish announces that she won't run for statewide office in 2016, despite speculation that she will #orleg #orpol". Twitter. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
  21. ^ Anderson, Taylor W. (August 28, 2015). "Dennis Richardson 'not interested in running' in 2016". The Bend Bulletin. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  22. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (April 23, 2015). "Election 2016: Linn County Republican says she's been 'approached' for governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 23, 2015.
  23. ^ "Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all". OregonLive. September 2, 2015.
  24. ^ Mapes, Jeff (August 17, 2015). "Independent Party of Oregon qualifies as a major party". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  25. ^ Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2015). "Johnson tour sparks speculation she's running for governor". East Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  26. ^ a b "Candidate Filings" (pdf). Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  27. ^ "Aaron Donald Auer". Constitution Party of Oregon. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  28. ^ "James Foster". Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on May 18, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  29. ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  30. ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  31. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  32. ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  33. ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  34. ^ "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved January 3, 2017.

External links[edit]

Nominees

Primary candidates