Pavel E. Felgenhauer (Russian: Па́вел Евге́ньевич Фельгенга́уэр; born December 6, 1951) is a Russian amateur military analyst (without any specialist military qualification for the job) who allegedly has insider sources in the Russian military. He is known for his publications critical of Russia's political and military leadership.
Felgenhauer was born in 1951 in Moscow, the Soviet Union; graduated from Moscow State University as a biologist in 1975. He served as researcher and senior research officer in the Soviet Academy of Sciences (Moscow) and received his Candidate of Sciences degree in biology from the Academy in 1988. He is based in Moscow.
Felgenhauer published numerous articles on topics dealing with Russian foreign and defense policies, military doctrine, arms trade, military-industrial complex and so on. From January 1991 until January 1993 he was associated with the Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow, as defense analyst and defense correspondent. From February 1993 till September 1999 Felgenhauer was member of the editorial board and chief defense correspondent of a Moscow daily Segodnya. Since May 1994 till October 2005 Felgenhauer published a regular column on defense in the English language local daily The Moscow Times. In July 2006, after being more than six years an independent defense analyst, Felgenhauer joined the staff of Novaya Gazeta. Felgenhauer continues to provide regular comments on Russia's defense-related problems to many other local and international media organizations, including The Jamestown Foundation.
Felgenhauer predicted in June 2008 that Vladimir Putin would start a war against Georgia in Abkhazia and South Ossetia supposedly in late August 2008.
Felgenhauer initially described retaking South Ossetia from Georgia as a Russian logistical nightmare, and claimed that Russia would face a prolonged and difficult war against Georgia's "quite good military". After the Russian Army routed the Georgian Army in five days, Felgenhauer said that Russia's invasion was pre-planned.
- "Did Russia Plan Its War In Georgia?". RFE/RL. 2008-08-15.
- "The rogue intelligence officer, the bogus news agency and the spies who never were", The Guardian, 24 January 2001.
- (Russian) http://www.svobodanews.ru/content/transcript/163251.html
- Россия начнет войну против Грузии предположительно в августе - П. Фельгенгауер (in Russian). 20 June 2008.
- Analysis: South Ossetian Conflict Will Cost Russia Dearly, Deutsche Welle
- http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=33888, Jamestown Foundation 2008-8-14