Pennsylvania Democratic primary, 2016

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Pennsylvania Democratic primary, 2016

← 2008 April 26, 2016 (2016-04-26) 2020 →

  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 106 83
Popular vote 935,107 731,881
Percentage 55.61% 43.53%

Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic primary was held on April 26 in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party's primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states, including their own Pennsylvania primary. Despite winning the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton went on to lose the state in the general election. The victory in Pennsylvania, together with other states in the so-called Blue Wall, won Trump the presidency.

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results April 26, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55.6%
Bernie Sanders
43.5%
Other
0.9%
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy[1]

Margin of error: ± 3.2%
Sample size: 942

April 24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
7%
CPEC LLC[2]

Margin of error: ± 2.3%
Sample size: 665

April 22–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Public Policy Polling[3]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 728

April 22–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
9%
American Research Group[4]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

April 21-24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
4%
Harper Polling[5]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 641

April 21-23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS/YouGov[6]

Margin of error: ± 6.7%
Sample size: 831

April 20-22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[7]

Margin of error: ± 1.9%
Sample size: 734

April 18-20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

April 17-19, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
9%
Franklin & Marshall College[9]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 510

April 11-18, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided
11%
FOX News[10]

Margin of error: ± 3.5%
Sample size: 805

April 4-7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
13%
Quinnipiac[11]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 514

March 30-April 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
6%
Harper[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 603

April 2-3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
12%
Franklin & Marshall[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 408

March 14-20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided
19%
Harper[14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 347

March 1-2, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided
16%
Franklin & Marshall College[15]

Margin of error: ± 3.1%
Sample size: 486

February 13–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided
25%
Robert Morris University[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 511

February 11–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
11%
Harper[17]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 640

January 22–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Undecided 13%
Franklin & Marshall[18]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 361

January 18–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Other 7%, Undecided 16%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Franklin & Marshall[19]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 303

October 19–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
18%
Martin O'Malley
0%
Other 12%, Undecided 18%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 416

October 8–11, 2015 Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden
20%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Not Sure 12%
Quinnipiac University[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 462

August 7–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
19%
Joe Biden
17%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University[21]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402

June 4–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Joe Biden
15%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

May 21–24, 2015 Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Martin O'Malley
6%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Not sure 12%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 415

March 17–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
48%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Joe Biden
13%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
27%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 25%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 392

January 22 – February 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
54%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
10%
Martin O'Malley 2%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
21%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Jim Webb 4%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 26%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 494

January 15–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Someone else/Undecided 11%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 382

May 30 – June 1, 2014 Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
9%
Andrew Cuomo
5%
Elizabeth Warren 5%, Cory Booker 4%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Franklin & Marshall College

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 524

March 25–31, 2014 Hillary Clinton
55%
Joe Biden
5%
Elizabeth Warren
4%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 0%, Other 5%, Undecided 29%
Franklin & Marshall College

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 548

February 18–23, 2014 Hillary Clinton
58%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Joe Biden
6%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 1%, Other 3%, Undecided 23%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 436

November 22–25, 2013 Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Cory Booker 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 9%

Results[edit]

Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 935,107 55.61% 106 20 126
Bernie Sanders 731,881 43.53% 83 0 83
Rocky De La Fuente 14,439 0.86% 0 0 0
Total 1,681,427 100% 189 20 209
Source: The Green Papers, Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results

Results by county[edit]

County[22] Clinton % Sanders % Others Totals Turnout Margin
Adams 3,863 48.08% 4,101 51.04% 71 8,035 41.15% -2.96%
Allegheny 123,715 55.08% 99,078 44.11% 1,819 224,612 43.18% 10.97%
Armstrong 2,992 48.30% 3,073 49.60% 130 6,195 39.00% -1.31%
Beavers 13,531 56.92% 9,873 41.53% 369 23,773 40.41% 15.39%
Bedford 1,388 48.91% 1,387 48.87% 63 2,838 29.56% 0.04%
Berks 21,063 48.35% 22,078 50.68% 422 43,563 37.68% -2.33%
Blair 3,965 46.87% 4,360 51.54% 135 23,988 35.27% -4.67%
Bradford 1,809 48.88% 1,839 49.69% 53 3,701 35.49% -0.81%
Bucks 46,917 55.90% 36,173 43.10% 837 83,927 43.88% 12.80%
Butler 8,790 52.10% 7,833 46.43% 249 16,872 40.98% 5.67%
Cambria 8,507 47.16% 9,024 50.02% 509 18,040 39.64% -2.87%
Cameron 186 41.89% 240 54.05% 18 444 36.33% -12.16%
Carbon 3,384 48.73% 3,460 49.82% 101 6,945 38.13% -1.09%
Centre 8,458 44.72% 10,331 54.63% 123 18,912 41.15% -9.90%
Chester 33,082 55.62% 26,193 44.04% 204 59,479 46.05% 11.58%
Clarion 1,529 49.34% 1,511 48.76% 59 3,099 38.37% 0.58%
Clearfield 3,194 47.30% 3,414 50.56% 145 6,753 32.18% -3.26%
Clinton 1,704 48.63% 1,739 49.63% 61 3,504 39.02% -1.00%
Columbia 2,504 40.48% 3,601 58.21% 81 6,186 39.59% -17.73%
Crawaford 3,707 48.69% 3,789 49.76% 118 7,614 39.39% -1.08%
Cumberland 12,421 51.54% 11,513 47.77% 168 24,102 45.45% 3.77%
Dauphin 18,474 56.82% 13,787 42.41% 250 32,511 36.26% 14.42%
Delaware 46,252 59.73% 30,824 39.80% 363 77,439 43.45% 19.92%
Elk 1,601 45.50% 1,846 52.46% 72 3,519 36.47% -6.96%
Erie 20,395 52.17% 18,362 46.97% 338 39,095 40.76% 5.20%
Fayette 9,195 57.69% 6,460 40.53% 285 15,940 32.70% 17.16%
Forest 251 52.07% 221 45.85% 10 482 37.28% 6.22%
Franklin 4,707 51.69% 4,282 47.02% 118 9,107 37.27% 4.67%
Fulton 366 48.87% 365 48.73% 18 749 28.81% 0.13%
Greene 2,268 52.55% 1,927 44.65% 121 4,316 34.27% 7.90%
Huntingdon 1,304 43.28% 1,666 55.29% 43 3,013 33.11% -12.01%
Indiana 4,049 50.34% 3,839 47.73% 156 8,044 40.04% 2.61%
Jefferson 1,249 43.89% 1,507 52.95% 90 9,712 29.30% -9.07%
Juniata 664 45.60% 754 51.79% 38 3,996 36.44% -6.18%
Lackawanna 23,020 56.52% 17,308 42.49% 402 40,730 45.36% 14.02%
Lancaster 19,840 47.97% 21,321 51.55% 197 41,358 40.14% -3.58%
Lawrence 5,845 58.64% 3,981 39.94% 142 9,968 36.39% 18.70%
Lebanon 4,669 49.88% 4,599 49.13% 93 9,361 35.78% 0.75%
Lehigh 20,430 52.40% 18,338 47.03% 224 38,992 35.66% 5.37%
Luzerne 20,542 51.94% 18,543 46.89% 462 39,547 37.49% 5.05%
Lycoming 3,808 43.94% 4,730 54.58% 128 8,666 39.29% -10.64%
McKean 1,053 46.18% 1,190 52.19% 37 2,280 31.50% -6.01%
Mercer 6,530 56.99% 4,739 41.36% 190 11,459 33.91% 15.63%
Miflin 1,201 48.29% 1,242 49.94% 44 2,487 32.93% -1.65%
Monroe 8,169 53.27% 7,042 45.92% 123 15,334 31.37% 7.35%
Montgomery 75,628 59.00% 52,132 40.67% 421 128,181 49.31% 18.33%
Montour 846 47.85% 890 50.34% 32 1,768 37.84% -2.49%
Northampton 18,104 51.18% 16,940 47.89% 328 35,372 37.27% 3.29%
Northumberland 3,582 48.92% 3,632 49.60% 108 7,322 33.78% -0.68%
Perry 1,329 42.60% 1,752 56.15% 39 3,120 43.59% -13.56%
Philadelphia 218,959 62.59% 129,353 36.98% 1,493 349,805 43.50% 25.62%
Pike 2,009 51.22% 1,894 48.29% 19 3,922 29.70% 2.93%
Potter 402 40.94% 560 57.03% 20 982 33.83% -16.09%
Schuylkill 6,534 51.30% 6,040 47.42% 164 12,738 37.61% 3.88%
Snyder 1,125 50.40% 1,081 48.43% 26 2,232 41.42% 1.97%
Somerset 3,114 48.18% 3,206 49.61% 143 6,463 35.95% -1.42%
Sullivan 312 50.16% 296 47.59% 14 622 40.65% 2.57%
Susquehanna 1,680 50.42% 1,610 48.32% 42 3,332 41.41% 2.10%
Tioga 1,055 43.20% 1,354 55.45% 33 2,442 34.07% -12.24%
Union 1,626 50.50% 1,579 49.04% 15 3,220 46.09% 1.46%
Venango 2,020 48.08% 2,087 49.68% 94 4,201 37.90% -1.59%
Warren 1,836 51.66% 1,665 46.85% 53 3,554 33.49% 4.81%
Washington 15,872 57.43% 11,262 40.75% 505 27,639 41.38% 16.68%
Wayne 1,859 47.44% 2,026 51.70% 34 3,919 39.12% -4.26%
Westmoreland 25,009 54.31% 20,286 44.05% 754 46,049 39.24% 10.26%
Wyoming 1,123 48.21% 1,168 50.42% 33 2,398 45.72% -2.21%
York 18,459 50.72% 17,544 48.21% 390 36,393 36.74% 2.51%
Total 935,107 55.61% 731,881 43.53% 14,439 1,681,427 41.39% 12.09%

Analysis[edit]

Clinton won a large victory over runner-up Bernie Sanders in Pennsylvania, replicating her 2008 performance against Barack Obama in the Keystone state. According to exit polls, Clinton won the white vote 51-47 (68% of the electorate), won the African American vote 70-30 (19% of the electorate), and won among women 60-39 (she lost men 50-49 to Sanders). While Sanders won among younger voters 63-37, Clinton won voters over the age of 45 66-33. Clinton swept all income and educational attainment levels except for whites without college degrees, whom Sanders won 50-49.

Clinton swept all political ideologies in the primary. She won Democrats 62-38 but lost self-identified Independents to Sanders 72-26.

Clinton also won among unions 56-43, a very important demographic in a big manufacturing state like Pennsylvania.

Clinton won large victories in all of Pennsylvania's major cities: she won in Philadelphia 63-37, the affluent Philadelphia suburbs 58-42, and also carried the cities of Pittsburgh and Erie. She won in Northeastern Pennsylvania 51-48, and in Western Pennsylvania 54-45. Sanders, for his part, did better in the rural parts of the state, winning rural voters 50-48 and carrying Central Pennsylvania 50-49.[23] Sanders swept many of the more remote and conservative counties of the state, including parts of Amish country such as Lancaster County.

Of her victory in the Keystone State, New York Times analyst Alan Rappeport commented, "Lots of Philadelphia history and imagery coming from Clinton now. It's almost as if she has her convention speech ready."[24]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll 4/25/16" (PDF). Opinion Savvy. April 25, 2016. Retrieved April 25, 2016. 
  2. ^ "Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll" (PDF). CPEC LLC. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016. 
  3. ^ "Clinton, Sanders close in CT/PA/RI; Trump Headed for Big Wins" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 25, 2016. Retrieved April 25, 2016. 
  4. ^ "2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 58%, Sanders 38% (ARG 4/21-4/24)". American Research Group. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016. 
  5. ^ "Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Poll". Harper Polling. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016. 
  6. ^ "Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, Indiana". Retrieved 2016-04-24. 
  7. ^ "Trump and Clinton Hold Strong Leads in Pennsylvania, New Poll Shows". Retrieved 2016-04-24. 
  8. ^ "PENNSYLVANIA: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY 13" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-04-20. 
  9. ^ "April 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-04-21. 
  10. ^ "Fox News Poll: Trump holds huge lead in Pennsylvania, Clinton up over Sanders". Retrieved 2016-04-10. 
  11. ^ "Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Poll March 30-April 4, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-04-06. 
  12. ^ "Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Poll April 2-3, 2016". Retrieved 2016-04-05. 
  13. ^ "March 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-03-24. 
  14. ^ "PENNSYLVANIA STATEWIDE POLL REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES". 
  15. ^ "Franklin & Marshall February 13–21, 2016" (PDF). 
  16. ^ "2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary – Clinton 48%, Sanders 41% (Robert Morris University 2/11-2/16)". 
  17. ^ Field, Nick. "Harper Poll: Clinton 55% Sanders 28%". Politics PA. Retrieved 5 February 2016. 
  18. ^ "January 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Franklin & Martin. 28 January 2016. Retrieved 5 February 2016. 
  19. ^ "Franklin and Marshall College Poll: Survey of Pennsylvanians Summary of Findings" (PDF). Franklin & Marshall. 29 October 2015. Retrieved 22 January 2016. 
  20. ^ "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). Quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved 2015-08-20. 
  21. ^ "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved 2015-07-09. 
  22. ^ http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ENR_New/Home/CountyResults?countyName=Tioga&ElectionID=54&ElectionType=P&IsActive=0
  23. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-10-16. 
  24. ^ "Pennsylvania Primary Election Results 2016". Retrieved 2016-10-16.