Philippine presidential election, 2016

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Philippine presidential election, 2016
Philippines
2010 ←
May 9, 2016 → 2022

2016 Philippine presidential election provincial results.png

Expected provincial and city certificates of canvass that will be used for the 2016 election. Metro Manila is shown at the inset.

Incumbent President

Benigno Aquino III
Liberal

Coat of arms of the Philippines.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
the Philippines

The Philippine presidential and vice presidential election of 2016 is the next presidential election in the Philippines, scheduled on Monday, May 9, 2016. Incumbent President Benigno Aquino III is barred from seeking re-election, pursuant to the 1987 Philippine Constitution. Therefore, this election will determine the 16th President of the Philippines. The position of president and vice president are elected separately, and the winning candidates may come from different political parties.

This will be the 16th presidential election in the Philippines since 1935, and the sixth sextennial presidential election since 1986. This will be a part of the 2016 general election where elections to the Senate, House of Representatives and local government, including the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao shall be held.

Electoral system[edit]

The election is held every six years after 1992, on the second Monday of May. The incumbent president is term limited. The incumbent vice president may run for two consecutive terms. As Joseph Estrada, who was elected in 1998, was able to run in 2010, it is undetermined if the term limit is for life, or is only limited to incumbents.

The plurality voting system is used to determine the winner: the candidate with the highest number of votes, whether or not one has a majority, wins the presidency. The vice presidential election is a separate election, is held on the same rules, and voters may split their ticket. Both winners serve for six years beginning June 30. 2016.

The candidates are determined via political conventions of the different political parties. As most political parties in the Philippines are not based on ideology but as a relationship between patrons and clients, and interactions between political dynasties, a person who was not nominated in this way may either run as an independent, get drafted by another party, or form one's own party. Candidates register at the Commission on Elections. which also regulates and holds the election. The commission then weeds out the so-called "nuisance candidates," or those who have no capability of running a nationwide campaign. This limits the candidates to a small number. Campaigning runs for three months, beginning on early February, and ends at the eve of the election.

Counting of votes is initially held at voting precincts, then are tabulated to the towns and cities, then to the provinces, and finally to Congress, which canvasses the votes. Election protests are handled by the Supreme Court, when it sits as the Presidential Electoral Tribunal.

Background[edit]

Senator Benigno Aquino III, who ran on an anti-corruption platform, defeated Joseph Estrada, deposed president who was convicted of massive corruption in 2009, of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) and several others in the presidential election. Meanwhile, Estrada's running mate Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay of the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) defeated Aquino's running mate, Senator Mar Roxas of the Liberal Party and several others, in the vice presidential election.[1] Roxas eventually sued Binay of electoral fraud in the Presidential Electoral Tribunal, citing that some of his votes were recorded as null votes.[2] As of 2014, the tribunal had still not yet acted upon the preliminary motions of both parties and on Binay's counter-protest; the suit is expected to be never resolved by the time President Aquino's term expires.[3] Both Binay and Roxas were subsequently appointed by Aquino to his cabinet, with Binay heading the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council,[4] and Roxas first being given the Transportation and Communications portfolio, then finally named as Secretary of the Interior and Local Government, after the ban of appointing losing candidates expired a year after Aquino took office on June 30, 2010.[5]

For the midterm 2013 Senate election, Aquino and Roxas formed the Team PNoy coalition;[6] Estrada's PMP and Binay's PDP-Laban forged an electoral alliance, the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).[7] Team PNoy won nine Senate seats against UNA's three.[8] Movie and Television Review and Classification Board chairman Grace Poe, who was a daughter of 2004 presidential candidate Fernando Poe, Jr., and was from Team PNoy but personally supported by the elder Poe's best friend Estrada, emerged as the surprise topnotcher,[9] catapulting her into the presidential candidates discussion.[10]

On March 2014, PDP-Laban withdrew from UNA, a week after Binay resigned as party chairman, due "to differences with its leaders". Party president Aquilino Pimentel III had a public quarrel with Binay over Juan Miguel Zubiri's inclusion in UNA's 2013 senatorial slate, whom Pimentel had accused of cheating in the 2007 Senate election.[11]

Several other stalwarts of UNA, such as senators Juan Ponce Enrile and Jinggoy Estrada, who had manifested his intention to run as Binay's running mate, and others such as Senator Bong Revilla of Lakas-CMD, who is planning to run for president, are currently detained due to their involvement in the pork barrel scam.[12][13] No personalities linked with the Liberal Party but were also involved in the scam were investigated upon; these actions by the government, which it says is part of its anti-corruption drive, has been cited by UNA as "political persecution".[14]

Starting August 2014, a subcommittee of the Blue Ribbon Committee composed solely of Pimentel, along with Nacionalista Party members Alan Peter Cayetano and Antonio Trillanes IV, began still ongoing Senate hearings against Binay on his alleged his corruption while serving as mayor of Makati, beginning with the alleged overpriced annex building of the Makati City Hall.[15] It was followed by hearings on alleged corruption on deals supplying Makati senior citizens with birthday cakes,[16] an agricultural estate in Rosario, Batangas that Binay allegedly owns,[17] the allegedly overpriced Makati Science High School,[18] and the relocation of Makati residents to Calauan, Laguna to a community without basic necessities.[19]

Binay had consistently denied any wrongdoing,[20] and from owning the Rosario estate,[21] but had never appeared at the Senate.[22] UNA Secretary General JV Bautista branded the investigations as part of the "Operation Plan Stop Nognog", insinuating on Binay's dark skin, with Roxas, Cayetano and Trillanes allegedly behind it to prevent Binay from becoming president. He accused billionaire businessman Salvador Zamora as its financier.[23] On May 2015, the Court of Appeals ordered the 242 bank accounts belonging to Binay to be frozen for six months, when it granted the petition of the Anti-Money Laundering Council and of the Ombudsman. Binay's camp had alleged certain people from the Liberal Party to be behind the freeze order,[24] a charge President Aquino, in a Bombo Radyo interview, himself denied.[25]

By late May 2015, the subcommittee report recommending the filing of a plunder (corruption worth more than 50 million pesos) complaint against Binay was signed by all three subcommittee members and Grace Poe.[26] By early June, ten senators had already signed the subcommittee report, making it official and available to be debated upon in the Senate floor.[27]

Candidates[edit]

For president[edit]

Announced candidacy[edit]

Jejomar Binay[edit]
Jejomar Binay

When questioned by the media at the Coconut Palace in September 2011, Vice President Jejomar Binay confirmed his plans of running as president.[28]

By May 2014, Binay began his search for a running mate. As his potential running mate Senator Jinggoy Estrada in jail due to his implication in the PDAF scam,[29] Binay's offers were declined by JV Ejercito,[30] Manny Villar (via wife Cynthia Villar),[31] Vilma Santos (via husband Ralph Recto),[32] Mar Roxas,[33] Grace Poe,[34] Rodrigo Duterte[35] and Joseph Estrada.[36] Binay's daughter Abigail, also the Representative from Makati, said that Binay would accept anyone as his running mate except for Antonio Trillanes, and that she prefers Grace Poe.[37] On June 12, Independence Day, speech in Iloilo, President Aquino said that he could only offer Binay the conduct of a clean and honest election, but not an outright endorsement.[38]

On June 22, Binay resigned from the Aquino cabinet, both as presidential adviser on Overseas Filipino Workers' concerns and as chairman of the Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council, but did not say why.[39] Two days later, Binay addressed the public from his Coconut Palace offices, branding the current administration as "manhid at palpak" (insensitive and bumbling), but did not mention Aquino by name. He also accused the administration of committing sins against him and the people.[40]

Potential candidates[edit]

Allled with the administration[edit]
In opposition[edit]
Independents[edit]

For vice president[edit]

Announced candidacy[edit]

Antonio Trillanes IV[edit]
Antonio Trillanes IV

In the news program Bandila's May 30, 2014 segment where a guest is asked to answer only “yes” or “no,” Senator Antonio Trillanes IV was asked if he would run for vice president in 2016 and responded by saying "Let’s just say yes, I will run. As for what position, I will abide by the Nacionalista Party."[51]

Almost a year later, Trillanes announced his preference to run as vice president in a weekly forum at the Senate. As with his May 2014 statement, he says that he will submit to the decision of the Nacionalistas, which would meet sometime before the end of April 2015. Amongst the Nacionalista's options are fielding its own standard bearer, form a coalition with the Liberals, or adopt an independent candidate.[52]

Potential candidates[edit]

Allled with the administration[edit]
  • None
In opposition[edit]
Independents[edit]

Polling[edit]

Opinion polling, popularly called as "surveys" in the Philippines, is conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS), Pulse Asia, and other pollsters.

The frontrunner is in bold. Those which are within the margin of error are in italics.

For president[edit]

Single-choice surveys[edit]

Date Mar 19–26, 2014 Jun 24–Jul 6, 2014 Sep 8–15, 2014 Nov 14–20, 2014 Mar 1–7, 2015 May 8–18, 2015 May 13–23, 2015 May 30–Jun 5, 2015
Pollster Pulse Asia[54] Pulse Asia[55] Pulse Asia[56] Pulse Asia[57] Pulse Asia[58] Laylo[59] IBON[60] Pulse Asia[61]
Sample size 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,500 1,496 1,200
Margin of error ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±2.6% ±3% ±3%
Benigno Aquino III Liberal 4.2
Kris Aquino Independent 4
Feliciano Belmonte Liberal 0.4
Jejomar Binay UNA 40 41 31 26 29 28 13.8 22
Alan Peter Cayetano Nacionalista 4 5 1 3 3 3 2
Noli de Castro Independent 3
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 10 7 11 12 9 8 6
Franklin Drilon Liberal 1 0.4 2
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban 12 10 7.6 15
Francis Escudero Independent 9 7 5 7 4 4
Joseph Estrada PMP 9 10 10 12 10 10
Richard Gordon UNA 1 2 1 1
Panfilo Lacson Independent 2 1 3 1 1 2
Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Nacionalista 5 5 4 4 6 3
Grace Poe Independent 15 12 10 18 14 24 13.7 30
Bong Revilla Lakas 3 2 1 1
Leni Robredo Liberal 1
Mar Roxas Liberal 6 7 13 6 4 8 3.8 10
Gilberto Teodoro Lakas 1
Antonio Trillanes IV Nacionalista 2
Others 1 2 3 1 1
Refused 0.03 1 0.3 1 1
Don't know 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4
None 0.4 1 2 2 0.1

Three-choice surveys[edit]

The following poll results are for surveys that allowed respondents to choose up to three people. The top three people with the best result are boldfaced; those within the margin of error of the third-best person are italicized.

Date Nov 27–Dec 1, 2014 Mar 20–23, 2015 Jun 5–8, 2015
Pollster SWS[62] SWS[63] SWS[64]
Sample size 1,800 1,200 1,200
Margin of error ±2% ±3% ±3%
Jejomar Binay UNA 37 36 34
Alan Peter Cayetano Nacionalista 3 4 2
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 10 11 4
Franklin Drilon Liberal 1 1
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban 5 15 20
Francis Escudero Independent 9 8 4
Joseph Estrada PMP 9 11 7
Panfilo Lacson Independent 2 1 7
Loren Legarda NPC 1 1 1
Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Nacionalista 3 7 3
Manny Pacquiao UNA 1 1
Francis Pangilinan Liberal 1
Grace Poe Independent 21 31 42
Bong Revilla Lakas 5 1
Mar Roxas Liberal 19 15 21
Antonio Trillanes IV Nacionalista 5 3 1
Manny Villar Nacionalista 2 3 1
Others 5 1
Don't know/refused 15 3 9
None 8 12 5

For vice president[edit]

Date Mar 19–26, 2014 Jun 24–Jul 6, 2014 Sep 8–15, 2014 Nov 14–20, 2014 Mar 1–7, 2015 Mar 20–23, 2015 May 8–18, 2015 May 30–Jun 5, 2015 Jun 5-8, 2015
Pollster Pulse Asia[54] Pulse Asia[55] Pulse Asia[56] Pulse Asia[57] Pulse Asia[58] SWS[65] Laylo[59] Pulse Asia[61] SWS[66]
Sample size 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,500 1,200 1,200
Margin of error ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±3% ±2.6% ±3% ±3%
Bam Aquino Liberal 3
Kris Aquino Independent 5
Jejomar Binay UNA 7 7
Alan Peter Cayetano Nacionalista 6 14 9 13 13 3 11 12 2
Miriam Defensor Santiago PRP 5 2
Franklin Drilon Liberal 5 5 6 3
Rodrigo Duterte PDP-Laban 11 4 11 9 3
JV Ejercito UNA 2
Francis Escudero Independent 20 22 19 20 16 6 16 15 7
Jinggoy Estrada UNA 4 5 5 5 4 0.6
Joseph Estrada PMP 3 7 3
Sherwin Gatchalian UNA 0.3
Panfilo Lacson Independent 5 1.6 7 6 3
Loren Legarda NPC 1.7 1.4
Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Nacionalista 5 8 6 8 11 3 5 9 1
Isko Moreno UNA 0.7
Manny Pacquiao UNA 0.5
Grace Poe Independent 24 26 31 33 29 26 23 41 21
Bong Revilla Lakas 3 4 3 3 2 0.7
Leni Robredo Liberal 1 1 3 1 0.4 1
Mar Roxas Liberal 8 12 12
Vilma Santos Liberal 5 4 6 0.6 5 1
Antonio Trillanes IV Nacionalista 7 6 7 8 6 3 6 5 1.1
Manuel Villar Nacionalista 0.6
Others 0.3 1 1 1 5 1
Refused 0.2 1 0.2 1 13 0 22
Don't know 0.3 1 1 1 1
None 1 2 2 7 0 8

References[edit]

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External links[edit]