Poland and the euro

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Eurozone participation
European Union (EU) member states
  19 in the eurozone.
  7 not in ERM II, but obliged to join the eurozone on meeting convergence criteria (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden).
  1 in ERM II, with an opt-out (Denmark).
  1 not in ERM II with an opt-out (United Kingdom).
Non-EU member states
  4 using the euro with a monetary agreement (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City).
  2 using the euro unilaterally (Kosovo[a] and Montenegro).

Under the terms of the Treaty of Accession 2003, all new Member States "shall participate in the Economic and Monetary Union from the date of Accession as a Member State with a derogation", which means that Poland is obliged to introduce the euro, which will replace its current currency, the Złoty.

It is currently projected that Poland will be able to join Euro zone in 2015 or later. There is no official information on the design process for the Polish national sides of the euro coins.

Discussions

Article 227[1] of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland will need to be amended to allow a change of currency from the Złoty to the euro and a change of the central bank,[2] so Poland may adopt the Euro no earlier than 2019.[3]

On 10 September 2008, speaking at the launch of an economic forum in a Polish resort of Krynica-Zdrój, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the ruling government's objective to join the Eurozone in 2012. However, since the Polish constitution will need to be changed first[2] and they will have to join the ERM 2 before second quarter 2009,[4] a target date that is still very aggressive. Regardless, on 28 October 2008 the Polish government confirmed their plan to join the Eurozone in January 2012.[5]

On 5 November 2009, speaking at the news conference Polish Deputy Finance Minister Ludwik Kotecki said the government may announce a national strategy for euro adoption in mid-2010.[6] In an interview for Rzeczpospolita daily 22 October 2009 he also said Poland could adopt the euro in 2014 if the general government deficit is reduced in 2012.[7]

Former President Lech Kaczyński said on news conference that Poland was unable to join Eurozone before 2015, and even that date was still very optimistic. Also, Polish government officials had confirmed that Poland wouldn't join Eurozone in 2012.[8]

On Friday, 11 December 2009, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland could join the eurozone in 2015.[9] Speaking during Finance Ministry-organized seminar on the euro-adoption process on 15 December 2009 Deputy Minister of Finance Ludwik Kotecki said the year 2015 is more likely than 2014, however he declined to specify the official target date.[10] In 2010, the eurozone's debt crisis caused Poles' interest to cool, with nearly half of the population opposed to entry.[11]

Public opinion

Last public opinion research by CBOS from March 2011 shows that 60% of Poles are against changing the PLN. Only 32 % of Poles want it, compared to 41 % in April 2010. [12]

Admittance criteria

The Maastricht Treaty originally required that all members of the European Union join the euro once certain economic criteria are met. Poland meets 2 out of the 5 criteria.

Convergence criteria
Inflation rate 1 Government finances ERM II membership Long-term interest rate 2
annual government deficit to GDP gross government debt to GDP
Reference value max 1.0% max 3% max 60% min 2 years max 6.0%
Poland Poland (May 2010) [13] 3.9% 7.1% 51.0% not yet a member 5.81% [14]
  criteria fulfilled
  criteria not fulfilled

1 No more than 1.5% higher than the 3 best-performing EU member states. HICP rate as published by the ECB.
2 No more than 2% higher than the 3 best-performing EU member states.

References

  1. ^ "Constitution of the Republic of Poland of 2nd April 1997, as published in Dziennik Ustaw (Journal of Laws) No. 78, item 483". Parliament of the Republic of Poland. Retrieved 25 September 2009.
  2. ^ a b "Polish charter must change before ERM-2". www.fxstreet.com. Retrieved 25 September 2008.
  3. ^ Sobczyk, Marcin (18 May 2011). "Poland Backtracks on Euro Adoption". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 25 May 2011.
  4. ^ "Poland will have to join ERM-2 at latest in Q2 2009". Forbes. 25 September 2008. Retrieved 26 September 2008.
  5. ^ "Polish govt confirms euro plan despite hurdles". London: guardian.co.uk. Retrieved 4 November 2008.[dead link]
  6. ^ "Kotecki Says Poland Has No Plan to Suspend Debt Rules". bloomberg.com. Retrieved 12 November 2009.
  7. ^ "Polish 2010 Gap Below 8% of GDP, Kotecki Tells Rzeczpospolita". bloomberg.com. Retrieved 12 November 2009.
  8. ^ http://www.tvp.info/informacje/biznes/euro-nie-w-2012-roku
  9. ^ "Polish PM says 2015 realistic date for euro entry". ForexYard. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
  10. ^ "Poland delays adoption of the Euro until 2015". MercoPress. Retrieved 22 December 2009.
  11. ^ "Czechs, Poles cooler to euro as they watch debt crisis". Reuters. 16 June 2010. Retrieved 18 June 2010.
  12. ^ "CBOS za przyjęciem euro 32 proc. Polaków, przeciw 60 proc". bankier.pl. 28 March 2011. Retrieved 3-04-2011. Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  13. ^ "Monitor konwergencji nominalnej" (PDF). Biuro Pełnomocnika Rządu ds. Wprowadzenia Euro przez Rzeczpospolitą Polską. Retrieved 15 May 2010.
  14. ^ "Long term government bond yields". Eurostat. Retrieved 07/08/11. Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)

External links

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