Polish parliamentary election, 2015

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Polish parliamentary election, 2015
Poland
2011 ←
25 October 2015 → 2019

All 460 seats to the Sejm
231 seats are needed for a majority in the Sejm
All 100 seats to the Senate of Poland
  First party Second party Third party
  Ewa Kopacz - Warszawa Konwencja PO (cropped).jpg Beata Szydło September 2015 (cropped).png Barbara Nowacka Sejm 2015 09.JPG
Leader Ewa Kopacz Beata Szydło Barbara Nowacka
Party PO PiS ZL
Leader since 8 November 2014 20 June 2015[1] 21 July 2015
Last election 39.2%, 207 seats 29.9%, 157 seats Did not exist
Seats before 197[2] 134[2] 50

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  J.Piechociński.JPG Janusz Korwin-Mikke Sejm 2015.JPG Ryszard Galla.jpg
Leader Janusz Piechociński Janusz Korwin-Mikke Ryszard Galla
Party PSL KORWiN German Minority
Leader since 17 November 2012 22 January 2015 25 September 2005
Last election 8.4%, 28 seats Did not exist 0,19%, 1 seat
Seats before 38[2] 3 1

Prime Minister before election

Ewa Kopacz
PO

Elected Prime Minister

TBD

Parliamentary elections to both the Sejm and Senate will be held in Poland on 25 October 2015.

Background[edit]

The previous elections in 2011 resulted in a Civic PlatformPolish People's Party government. All seats of both Houses are up for re-election.

Politics of Poland[edit]

Main article: Politics of Poland

The President of Poland has the power to dissolve the Sejm by his own will. Unlike other countries the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Sejm and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must nominate a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the nominee must be confirmed by the Assembly of the Republic.

Date[edit]

The date of the election, October 25, was set by the previous President of Poland, Bronisław Komorowski. The latest possible date for the election to be held was in November 2015, four years after the previous election. Prior to the announcement of the election date, the most likely dates were thought to be in October or November.

Monitors[edit]

It is possible that again delegations from their electoral boards and of political parties representatives from different countries will monitore the election, in Poland. There is and was a discussion regarding this topic like 2011.

Electoral system[edit]

The process of election for the Sejm is through open party-list proportional representation via the D'hondt method in multi-seat constituencies, with a 5% threshold for single parties and 8% threshold for coalitions (requirements waived for national minorities). The senate is elected using first-past-the-post voting in single-member districts.[3]

To be included on a ballot, a senate candidate must present 2000 signatures of support from their constituents.[4] For Sejm elections, the threshold is 5000 signatures per constituency, though that requirement is waived for parties who have already registered lists in at least half of all constituencies[5] (21 out of 41 as of this election).

Overall, the Sejm includes 460 MPs. Should a party with 231 or more deputies representing the Parliament, it has an absolute majority and could thus without a coalition partner to govern autonomously. The constitution can be amended with a supermajority of two-thirds, or 307 deputies.

Parties standing in the election[edit]

Nationwide committees[edit]

Party Leader Ideologies Political spectrum Political groups of the European Parliament
Civic Platform (PO) Ewa Kopacz Christian democracy,[6][7][8] Liberal conservatism, Pro-Europeanism, Liberalism[citation needed] Centre to Centre-right[9][10][11] European People's Party Group (EPP)
Law and Justice (PiS)
United Poland (SP)
Poland Together - United Right (PRZP)
Right Wing of the Republic (PRz)
Beata Szydło Economic,[12] Conservatism, Euroscepticism Centre-right[13][14][15] to Right-wing[16][17][18][19] European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)
United Left[20][21][22][23] (ZL)
Democratic Left Alliance (SLD)
Your Movement (TR)
Polish Socialist Party (PPS)
Labour Union (UP)
The Greens (Zieloni)
Polish Labour Party (Sierpień 80)[24] (PPP)
Barbara Nowacka Social democracy, Progressivism, Green politics, Democratic socialism (miniority), Feminism,[21][24][25][26] Communism[21][24][25][26] Left wing to Centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)[citation needed]
Polish People's Party (PSL) Janusz Piechociński strongly based around Agrarianism Centre-right European People's Party Group (EPP)
Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic - Freedom and Hope (KORWiN) Janusz Korwin-Mikke Right libertarianism, Hard-Euroscepticism, Paleolibertarianism[27] Right-wing[28] Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD)
Parties not in the Sejm are below
Kukiz'15 (K'15) Paweł Kukiz Populism, Anticommunism Big tent[29][30]
.Modern (.N) Ryszard Petru Liberalism, Pro-Europeanism Radical centre
Together (Razem) collective leadership Democratic socialism, Social democracy[31] Left-wing

Regional committees[edit]

Party Leader Ideology Political spectrum Political groups of the European Parliament
German Minority Electoral Committee (MN) Ryszard Galla Liberalism[citation needed], Regionalism Centre
Parties not in the Sejm are below
Congress of the New Right (KNP) Michał Marusik Right libertarianism, New right, Euroscepticism Right-wing Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF)
Single-member district - Nonpartisan (JOW Bezpartyjni) Robert Raczyński Pro single-member constituency Big tent
Committee of Zbigniew Stonoga (KWW ZS) Zbigniew Stonoga Anti-communism, Populism Right-wing to Far right
Social Movement of the Republic of Poland (RS RP) Sławomir Izdebski Agrarian socialism, Left-wing populism Left-wing
United for Silesia (ZdŚ) Jerzy Gorzelik Silesian nationalism, Regionalism Radical centre
Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland (SRP) Lech Kuropatwiński Agrarianism, Left-wing nationalism Left-wing
God Bless You (SB) Grzegorz Braun Monarchism, Traditionalism, Ordoliberalism Right-wing to Far right
Citizens to Parliament (OdP) Jan Zbigniew Potocki Liberal democracy Big tent

Opinion polls[edit]

Opinion polling institutes[edit]

In the run up to the election, following organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention:
• Estymator
• IBRiS
Ipsos
Millward Brown
• TNS Poland
• Dobra Opinia
• PressMix
• ewybory.eu
• GfK Polonia
CBOS
• Arianda

Poll results[edit]

The poll results are listed in the table below:

polls
Notes
  1. ^ a b Law and Justice, United Poland, and Poland Together have concluded an electoral alliance, and as such are considered a single entity by most pollsters.
  2. ^ Your Movement did not present lists in all regions in the local elections.
  3. ^ a b In this poll, the people surveyed were asked how they would vote in the hypothetical event of Jarosław Gowin launching his own party.
  4. ^ In this poll, the people surveyed were asked how they would vote in the hypothetical event of Zbigniew Ziobro launching his own party.

Briefly summary[edit]

The following parties (nationwide committees) partially or confidentially have to fear for marching to both, in the Sejm and Senate. Due to not achieving the 5% threshold for single parties and 8% threshold for coalitions:
United Left[32][33][34][35][36] (PSL)
Polish People's Party[36][37][37] (PSL)
Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic - Freedom and Hope[32][38][39][40] (KORWiN)
Kukiz'15[36][40][41][42] (K'15)
.Modern[33][43][44][45] (.N)
Together[38] (Razem)
(Status: Middle October 2015)

References[edit]

  1. ^ http://www.tvn24.pl/wiadomosci-z-kraju,3/beata-szydlo-kandydatem-pis-na-premiera,553202.html
  2. ^ a b c "Sejm parliamentary groups". Sejm. Retrieved 7 February 2015. 
  3. ^ "Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Polish Sejm, Part I". electionresources.org. Retrieved 2014-08-03. 
  4. ^ http://www.senat.gov.pl/gfx/senat/userfiles/_public/k8eng/noty/howare.pdf
  5. ^ http://www.sejm.gov.pl/english/sejm/pos.htm
  6. ^ http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0a448cc4-367b-11e4-95d3-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?siteedition=uk&_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F0a448cc4-367b-11e4-95d3-00144feabdc0.html%3Fsiteedition%3Duk&_i_referer=&classification=conditional_standard&iab=barrier-app
  7. ^ https://books.google.de/books?id=K79sdX-amEgC&pg=PA30&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
  8. ^ https://books.google.de/books?id=I5MjBT9lQLwC&pg=PA143&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false
  9. ^ Copsey, Nathaniel (2013). Poland:An Awkward Partner Redeemed. The Member States of the European Union (Second ed.) (Oxford University Press). p. 191. 
  10. ^ Szczerbiak, Aleks (2012). Poland Within the European Union: New awkward partner or new heart of Europe?. Routledge. p. 2. 
  11. ^ De Waele, Jean-Michel; Pacześniak, Anna (2012). The Europeanisation of Poland's political parties and party system. Europeanisation and Party Politics (ECPR Press). p. 125. 
  12. ^ http://www.sobieski.org.pl/tworzenie-szans-dla-wszystkich/
  13. ^ Easton, Adam (7 October 2011). "Poland heads into close-fought election". BBC News. Retrieved 5 June 2012. 
  14. ^ "Poland's crumbling government". The Economist. 25 September 2006. Retrieved 5 June 2012. 
  15. ^ "Law and Justice". Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica. Retrieved 7 June 2012. 
  16. ^ Szczerbiak, Aleks (2012), Poland Within the European Union: New awkward partner or new heart of Europe?, Routledge, pp. 1, 13 
  17. ^ Porter-Szűcs, Brian (2011), Faith and Fatherland: Catholicism, Modernity, and Poland, Oxford University Press, p. 201 
  18. ^ Minkenberg, Michael (2007), "Between Tradition and Transition: the Central European Radical Right and the New European Order", Europe for the Europeans: The Foreign and Security Policy of the Populist Radical Right (Ashgate): 261 
  19. ^ Jennifer Lees-Marshment (2 July 2009). Political Marketing: Principles and Applications. Routledge. pp. 103–. ISBN 978-1-134-08411-1. 
  20. ^ http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/223624,Polands-United-Left-puts-forward-candidate-for-PM
  21. ^ a b c http://fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2015/aktualnosci/news-do-zjednoczonej-lewicy-dolaczyl-nowy-koalicjant,nId,1885559
  22. ^ http://wbj.pl/united-left-presents-its-new-leader-and-pm-candidate/
  23. ^ http://zjednoczona-lewica.pl/
  24. ^ a b c http://www.bpb.de/nachschlagen/lexika/lexikon-der-wirtschaft/20092/marxismus
  25. ^ a b http://www.internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article949
  26. ^ a b http://www.partiapracy.pl/
  27. ^ http://www.thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/194558,Maverick-MEP-KorwinMikke-launches-new-party
  28. ^ "Maverick MEP Korwin-Mikke launches new party - National". Thenews.pl. 2015-01-23. Retrieved 2015-03-05. 
  29. ^ http://student-sgh.blogspot.de/
  30. ^ http://wpolityce.pl/kultura/250365-kulturalny-flesz-dnia-kukiz-vs-piersi-wildstein-vs-peszek-shirley-temple
  31. ^ "Partia Razem. Nowa partia dla prekariuszy". Gazeta Wyborcza. Retrieved 2015-09-26. 
  32. ^ a b http://wyborcza.pl/1,75478,19030384,sondaz-tns-po-odrabia-straty-ale-pis-moglby-wciaz-rzadzic.html
  33. ^ a b http://wpolityce.pl/polityka/268155-nowy-sondaz-tns-polska-pis-wysoko-przed-platforma-w-sejmie-tylko-trzy-partie-sprawdz-wyniki
  34. ^ http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/najnowszy-sondaz-ibris-dla-onetu-pis-i-po-dystansuja-konkurentow/fx9ejg
  35. ^ http://ewybory.eu/sondaz-estymator-dla-newsweeka-polska-30-09-2015/
  36. ^ a b c http://pressmix.eu/2015/10/01/najnowszy-sondaz-wyborczy-a-imie-jego-czterdziesci-i-cztery/
  37. ^ a b http://wyborcza.pl/1,75478,18993401,samodzielna-wiekszosc-dla-pis-w-sondazu-tns-polska.html
  38. ^ a b http://www.radiozet.pl/Wybory-2015/Wybory-parlamentarne-Sondaz-NOWY-00012851
  39. ^ http://fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2015/aktualnosci/news-sondaz-cbos-platforma-zmniejsza-dystans-do-pis,nId,1905258
  40. ^ a b http://fakty.tvn24.pl/fakty-ekstra,52/sondaz-poparcia-dla-partii-wciaz-duza-przewaga-pis-nad-po,582050.html
  41. ^ http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/sondaz-ibris-dla-onetu-pawel-kukiz-poza-sejmem/yrgm9c
  42. ^ http://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/triumf-pis-i-upadek-kukiza-co-z-lewica-najnowszy-sondaz-dla-super-expressu_665634.html
  43. ^ http://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/sondaz-dla-wiadomosci-tvp1-po-traci-poparcie-pis-niezmiennie-na-czele/xb6990
  44. ^ http://ewybory.eu/sondaz-estymator-dla-newsweeka-polska-15-10-2015/
  45. ^ http://wiadomosci.wp.pl/kat,1342,title,Najnowszy-sondaz-TNS-Polska-Sejm-bez-lewicy-i-PSL,wid,17840295,wiadomosc.html?ticaid=115c81