Portuguese legislative election, 1995

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Portuguese legislative election, 1995

← 1991 1 October 1995 1999 →

230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered 8,906,608 Increase5.3%
Turnout 5,904,854 (66.3%)
Decrease1.5 pp
  First party Second party
  António Guterres in London - 2018 (41099390345) (cropped).jpg Picture of Fernando Nogueira.jpg
Leader António Guterres Fernando Nogueira
Party PS PSD
Leader since 23 February 1992 19 February 1995
Leader's seat Castelo Branco[1] Porto[2]
Last election 72 seats, 29.1% 135 seats, 50.6%
Seats won 112 88
Seat change Increase 40 Decrease 47
Popular vote 2,583,755 2,014,589
Percentage 43.8% 34.1%
Swing Increase 14.7 pp Decrease 16.5 pp

  Third party Fourth party
  Male portrait placeholder cropped.jpg Male portrait placeholder cropped.jpg
Leader Manuel Monteiro Carlos Carvalhas
Party CDS–PP CDU
Leader since 22 March 1992 5 December 1992
Leader's seat Braga[3] Lisbon[4]
Last election 5 seats, 4.4% 17 seats, 8.8%
Seats won 15 15
Seat change Increase 10 Decrease 2
Popular vote 534,470 506,157
Percentage 9.1% 8.6%
Swing Increase 4.7 pp Decrease 0.2 pp

Prime Minister before election

Aníbal Cavaco Silva
PSD

Elected Prime Minister

António Guterres
PS

The Portuguese legislative election of 1995 took place on 1 October. The Socialist Party defeated the Social Democratic Party under the lead of António Guterres, elected three years before, but missed the absolute majority by 4 MPs. The Social Democratic party under the lead of Fernando Nogueira was weakened by the end of a ten years cycle of government of Cavaco Silva. The two minor parties, the People's Party and the Democratic Unity Coalition achieved only 15 MPs each, a thing that marked the growing bi-polarization of the Portuguese political map. Although turnout, in percentage point, was lower than the previous election in 1991, almost 6 million voters cast a ballot on election day, the highest figure since 1980.

Voter turnout stood at 66.3%, the lowest till then.

Electoral system[edit]

The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments require majority support in the Assembly in order to remain in office.

Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores and Madeira - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.

Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are divided among parties according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR), conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, there is an effective threshold at the constituency level that depends on the district magnitude.[5] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation method such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[6]

Parties[edit]

The major parties involved were listed with their leaders:

António Guterres, leader of the Socialist Party, was nominated Prime Minister for the first time, becoming the first socialist Prime Minister in 10 years.

Opinion Polling[edit]

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed are currently represented in parliament. Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1991 and 1995 for reference.

Note, until 2000, the publication of opinion polls in the last week of the campaign was forbidden.
  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Date Released Polling Firm PSD PS CDU CDS-PP Others Lead
1 Oct 1995 Leg. Election 34.1
88 seats
43.8
112 seats
8.6
15 seats
9.1
15 seats
4.4
0 seats
9.7
1 Oct RTP/Euroteste 33.4 40.3 12.4 9.9 4.0 6.9
1 Oct SIC/Metris 34.5 42.2 9.0 9.2 5.1 7.7
1 Oct TVI/Universidade Católica 35.5 41.0 8.0 10.0 5.5 5.5
Exit polls
29 Sep Norma 40.3 35.2 9.7 9.3 5.5 5.1
23 Sep Metris 32.0 42.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 10.0
23 Sep Euroteste 35.0 39.0 9.0 10.0 7.0 4.0
23 Sep Euroexpansão 32.7 44.5 11.5 6.9 4.4 11.8
23 Sep Universidade Católica 35.0 40.0 9.0 10.0 6.0 5.0
22 Sep IPSOS 35.0 41.0 9.0 9.0 6.0 6.0
21 Sep Marktest 33.0 42.0 10.0 9.0 6.0 9.0
16 Sep Compta 39.0 40.0 12.0 8.0 1.0 1.0
1995
6 Oct 1991 Leg. Election 50.6
135 seats
29.1
72 seats
8.8
17 seats
4.4
5 seats
7.1
1 seats
21.5

National summary of votes and seats[edit]

e • d Summary of the 1 October 1995 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Parties Votes % ± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1991 1995 ± % ±
Socialist 2,583,755 43.76 Increase14.7 72 112 Increase40 48.70 Increase17.4 1.11
Social Democratic 2,014,589 34.12 Decrease16.5 135 88 Decrease47 38.26 Decrease20.4 1.12
People's[A] 534,470 9.05 Increase4.7 5 15 Increase10 6.52 Increase4.3 0.72
Democratic Unity Coalition[B] 506,157 8.57 Decrease0.2 17 15 Decrease2 6.52 Decrease0.9 0.76
Portuguese Workers' Communist 41,137 0.70 Decrease0.2 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Revolutionary Socialist 37,638 0.64 Decrease0.5 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
People's Democratic Union 33,876 0.57 Increase0.5 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
National Solidarity 12,613 0.21 Decrease1.5 1 0 Decrease1 0.00 Decrease0.4 0.0
Party of the People 8,279 0.14 N/A N/A 0 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.0
Earth 8,235 0.14 N/A N/A 0 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.0
Earth / People's Monarchist 5,932 0.10 N/A N/A 0 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.0
Unity Movement for Workers 2,544 0.04 N/A N/A 0 N/A 0.00 N/A 0.0
Democratic Party of the Atlantic 2,536 0.04 Decrease0.2 0 0 Steady0 0.00 Steady0.0 0.0
Total valid 5,791,761 98.08 Increase0.0 230 230 Steady0 100.00 Steady0.0
Blank ballots 45,793 0.78 Decrease0.0
Invalid ballots 67,300 1.14 Increase0.0
Total (turnout 66.30%) 5,904,854 100.00 Decrease1.5
A In 1993, the name "People´s Party" was added to the party's name.
B Portuguese Communist Party (13 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.[7]
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PS
43.76%
PSD
34.12%
CDS-PP
9.05%
CDU
8.57%
PCTP/MRPP
0.70%
PSR
0.64%
UDP
0.57%
Others
0.67%
Blank/Invalid
1.92%
Parliamentary seats
PS
48.70%
PSD
38.26%
CDS-PP
6.52%
CDU
6.52%

Distribution by constituency[edit]

e • d Results of the 1995 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the
Republic
by constituency
Constituency % S % S % S % S Total
S
PS PSD CDS–PP CDU
Azores 37.6 2 47.8 3 9.4 - 1.8 - 5
Aveiro 40.2 6 41.2 6 12.6 2 2.7 - 14
Beja 45.8 2 15.7 1 3.6 - 29.2 1 4
Braga 42.9 8 38.2 7 10.7 1 4.5 - 16
Bragança 40.3 2 44.8 2 9.4 - 1.9 - 4
Castelo Branco 53.2 3 32.1 2 7.2 - 5.3 - 5
Coimbra 49.1 6 34.5 4 7.1 - 5.1 - 10
EvoraÉvora 42.6 2 20.2 1 5.2 - 26.9 1 4
Faro 49.6 5 29.2 3 8.3 - 7.8 - 8
Guarda 43.7 2 39.9 2 9.9 - 2.3 - 4
Leiria 36.7 4 43.3 5 11.4 1 4.5 - 10
Lisbon 44.3 24 29.0 15 9.4 5 12.0 6 50
Madeira 32.0 2 46.1 3 12.9 - 1.3 - 5
Portalegre 50.5 2 23.4 1 6.3 - 14.0 - 3
Porto 46.7 18 36.4 14 7.8 3 6.0 2 37
Santarém 45.8 5 31.0 3 8.7 1 9.5 1 10
Setúbal 44.9 9 18.4 3 7.2 1 23.8 4 17
Viana do Castelo 38.8 3 42.1 3 11.3 - 4.6 - 6
Vila Real 40.0 2 46.0 3 7.8 - 1.9 - 5
Viseu 38.4 4 44.3 4 11.5 1 1.8 - 9
zEurope 35.1 1 33.8 1 4.4 - 6.4 - 2
zRest of the World 12.8 - 69.3 2 3.8 - 1.2 - 2
Total 43.8 112 34.1 88 9.1 15 8.6 15 230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps[edit]

References[edit]

External links[edit]

See also[edit]