Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2009

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2009.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

LABOR SEATS (51)
Marginal
Chatsworth Steven Kilburn ALP 0.1%
Everton Murray Watt ALP 1.4%
Broadwater Peta-Kaye Croft ALP 2.0%
Cook Jason O'Brien ALP 2.2%
Barron River Steve Wettenhall ALP 2.3%
Whitsunday Jan Jarratt ALP 3.2%
Toowoomba North Kerry Shine ALP 3.2%
Southport Peter Lawlor ALP 3.5%
Townsville Mandy Johnstone ALP 4.0%
Springwood Barbara Stone ALP 4.1%
Cairns Desley Boyle ALP 4.2%
Mansfield Phil Reeves ALP 4.4%
Ferny Grove Geoff Wilson ALP 4.5%
Kallangur Mary-Anne O'Neill ALP 4.6%
Pine Rivers Carolyn Male ALP 4.6%
Mount Ommaney Julie Attwood ALP 4.8%
Burleigh Christine Smith ALP 4.9%
Pumicestone Carryn Sullivan ALP 5.0%
Mount Coot-tha Andrew Fraser ALP 5.2%
Redcliffe Lillian van Litsenburg ALP 5.6%
Mount Isa Betty Kiernan ALP 5.7%
Fairly safe
Brisbane Central Grace Grace ALP 6.0%
Albert Margaret Keech ALP 6.5%
Mundingburra Lindy Nelson-Carr ALP 6.6%
Greenslopes Cameron Dick ALP 6.9%
Ashgrove Kate Jones ALP 7.1%
Murrumba Dean Wells ALP 7.2%
Stafford Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 7.3%
Keppel Paul Hoolihan ALP 7.6%
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 7.8%
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 8.1%
Thuringowa Craig Wallace ALP 8.5%
Yeerongpilly Simon Finn ALP 8.7%
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 9.1%
Algester Karen Struthers ALP 9.2%
Stretton Stephen Robertson ALP 9.5%
Ipswich West Wayne Wendt ALP 9.5%
Capalaba Michael Choi ALP 9.7%
Safe
Sunnybank Judy Spence ALP 10.8%
Lytton Paul Lucas ALP 12.2%
Sandgate Vicky Darling ALP 12.4%
Logan John Mickel ALP 13.9%
Nudgee Neil Roberts ALP 14.3%
South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP 15.0%
Waterford Evan Moorhead ALP 16.5%
Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP 16.7%
Ipswich Rachel Nolan ALP 16.7%
Rockhampton Robert Schwarten ALP 17.9%
Very safe
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 21.2%
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 21.5%
Woodridge Desley Scott ALP 25.4%
LIBERAL NATIONAL SEATS (31)
Marginal
Redlands Peter Dowling LNP 0.1%
Cleveland Mark Robinson LNP 0.3%
Mirani Ted Malone LNP 0.6%
Gaven Alex Douglas LNP 0.7%
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 1.9%
Burdekin Rosemary Menkens LNP 3.1%
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 3.9%
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP 4.5%
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 5.8%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 5.8%
Indooroopilly Scott Emerson LNP 5.9%
Fairly safe
Bundaberg Jack Dempsey LNP 6.0%
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 6.2%
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 6.5%
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 6.9%
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 6.9%
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP 7.6%
Toowoomba South Mike Horan LNP 8.2%
Safe
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 10.8%
Moggill Bruce Flegg LNP 11.3%
Condamine Ray Hopper LNP v IND 11.6%
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 12.8%
Gregory Vaughan Johnson LNP 14.3%
Buderim Steve Dickson LNP 14.3%
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP 14.7%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 16.5%
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP 19.4%
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP 19.8%
Very safe
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP 21.1%
Warrego Howard Hobbs LNP 24.3%
Gympie David Gibson LNP 27.3%
Others (7)
Nanango Dorothy Pratt IND v LNP 2.9%
Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND v ALP 6.1%
Dalrymple Shane Knuth LNP v ONP 4.5%
Beaudesert Aidan McLindon LNP v ALP 8.3%
Burnett Rob Messenger LNP v ALP 11.1%
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND v LNP 16.3%
Maryborough Chris Foley IND v LNP 16.8%