Pre-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the New South Wales state election, 2019.[1]

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

All margins are Coalition vs. Labor unless specified otherwise.

LIBERAL/NATIONAL SEATS (52)
Marginal
East Hills Glenn Brookes LIB 0.4%
Upper Hunter Michael Johnsen NAT 2.2%
Monaro John Barilaro NAT 2.5%
Lismore Thomas George NAT 2.9 v GRN
Coogee Bruce Notley-Smith LIB 2.9%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 3.2%
Fairly Safe
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 6.2%
Goulburn Pru Goward LIB 6.6%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 6.6%
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB 6.7%
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB 7.6%
Bega Andrew Constance LIB 8.2%
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB 8.7%
Seven Hills Mark Taylor LIB 8.7%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT 8.7%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB 9.0%
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 9.6%
Mulgoa Tanya Davies LIB 9.7%
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT 9.7%
Safe
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT 10.0% v IND
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT 10.9%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 11.5%
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 12.2%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 12.9%
Barwon Kevin Humphries NAT 12.9%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB 13.0%
Albury Greg Aplin LIB 13.2%
Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser NAT 14.3%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 15.8%
Epping Damien Tudehope LIB 16.2%
Wollondilly Jai Rowell LIB 17.3%
Hawkesbury Dominic Perrottet LIB 17.8%
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB 17.8%
Camden Chris Patterson LIB 18.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB 18.8%
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 18.9%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT 19.0%
Cootamundra Katrina Hodgkinson NAT 20.4%
Dubbo Troy Grant NAT 20.4%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 20.9%
North Shore Jillian Skinner LIB 21.2% v GRN
Baulkham Hills David Elliott LIB 21.8%
Murray Adrian Piccoli NAT 22.7% v IND
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB 22.9% v GRN
Ku-ring-gai Alister Henskens LIB 23.0%
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB 24.4% v GRN
Manly Mike Baird LIB 24.5% v GRN
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB 25.2%
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB 25.7% v GRN
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT 27.1%
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB 28.8% v GRN
Castle Hill Ray Williams LIB 29.4%
LABOR SEATS (34)
Marginal
Gosford Kathy Smith ALP 0.2%
The Entrance David Mehan ALP 0.4%
Strathfield Jodi McKay ALP 1.8%
Granville Julia Finn ALP 2.1%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP 3.4%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP 4.7%
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP 4.8%
Auburn Luke Foley ALP 5.9%
Fairly safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP 6.9%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP 7.3%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 7.4%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP 8.0% v IND
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP 8.1%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP 8.1%
Wyong David Harris ALP 8.7%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP 8.8%
Safe
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP 10.5 v GRN
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 10.8%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP 12.9%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP 13.0%
Blacktown John Robertson ALP 13.2%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP 13.8%
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP 14.0%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP 14.1%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP 15.4%
Canterbury Linda Burney ALP 15.7%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 17.0%
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP 17.2%
Keira Ryan Park ALP 17.4%
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP 17.8%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 20.8%
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP 20.9%
Lakemba Jihad Dib ALP 21.6%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 22.0%
CROSSBENCH SEATS (7)
Orange Philip Donato SFF 0.1% vs NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN 3.1% v NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN 4.7% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND 8.1 v LIB
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN 9.3% v ALP
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND 9.6% v LIB
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND 10.7 v ALP


References[edit]

  1. ^ Raue, Ben. "Pendulum – NSW 2019". The Tally Room.