Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2016

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The Coalition won the 2016 federal election with a one-seat majority 76 of 150 lower house seats. Labor holds 69 seats while crossbenchers hold the remaining five.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'.".[1]

Pendulum[edit]

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 50.63
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 50.63
Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 50.73
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 51.04
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 51.14
Chisholm (Vic) Julia Banks LIB 51.24
Dunkley (Vic) Chris Crewther LIB 51.43
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 51.44
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 51.46
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 51.60
Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 51.65
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 51.95 v NXT
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 52.05
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 52.30
Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 53.13
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 53.34
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 53.39
Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint LIB 53.50
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 53.59
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 53.63
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 53.95
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 54.56 v IND
Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 54.69
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 54.74 v NXT
Murray (Vic) Damian Drum NAT 55.13 v LIB
Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB 55.68
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 55.89
Brisbane (Qld) Trevor Evans LNP 55.92
Fairly safe
McMillan (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 56.03
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 56.06
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 56.12
Canning (WA) Andrew Hastie LIB 56.79
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP 57.07
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 57.77
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB 57.99 v GRN
Wide Bay (Qld) Llew O'Brien LNP 58.14
Hinkler (Qld) Keith Pitt LNP 58.42
New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT 73.63
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB 58.59
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB 58.96
Fisher (Qld) Andrew Wallace LNP 59.06
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP 59.09
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 59.33
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP 59.62
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 59.72
Safe
Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB 60.18
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 60.56
Fairfax (Qld) Ted O'Brien LNP 60.89
Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB 61.02
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP 61.05
Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB 61.06
Tangney (WA) Ben Morton LIB 61.07
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 61.55 v GRN
Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT 61.63
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP 61.64
Calare (NSW) Andrew Gee NAT 61.81
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 62.56
Goldstein (Vic) Tim Wilson LIB 62.68
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB 63.34
North Sydney (NSW) Trent Zimmerman LIB 63.61
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP 64.94
O'Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB 65.04
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 65.10
Groom (Qld) John McVeigh LNP 65.31
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 65.39
Mackellar (NSW) Jason Falinski LIB 65.74
Maranoa (Qld) David Littleproud LNP 65.86 v ONP
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 66.44
Berowra (NSW) Julian Leeser LIB 66.45
Wentworth (NSW) Malcolm Turnbull LIB 67.75
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 67.82
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 68.43
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 70.53
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 70.70
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 71.04
Mallee (Vic) Andrew Broad NAT 71.32
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole ALP 50.02
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 50.58
Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 50.68
Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP 50.79
Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP 51.11
Melbourne Ports (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 51.38
Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 51.60
Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 52.19
Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP 52.20
Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP 52.31
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 52.93
Perth (WA) Tim Hammond ALP 53.33
Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 53.74
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 53.96
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.02
Bruce (Vic) Julian Hill ALP 54.08
Batman (Vic) Ged Kearney ALP 54.41 v GRN
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 54.65
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 54.67
Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 54.81
Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP 54.88 v GRN
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 55.32
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 55.73
Fairly safe
Solomon (NT) Luke Gosling ALP 56.00
Bass (Tas) Ross Hart ALP 56.09
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 56.31
Burt (WA) Matt Keogh ALP 57.11
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 57.32
Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP 57.48
Fremantle (WA) Josh Wilson ALP 57.52
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 57.67
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP 57.85
Werriwa (NSW) Anne Stanley ALP 58.20
Barton (NSW) Linda Burney ALP 58.30
Macarthur (NSW) Mike Freelander ALP 58.33
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 58.42
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP 58.46
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 58.57
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 58.88
Oxley (Qld) Milton Dick ALP 59.08
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 59.65
Shortland (NSW) Pat Conroy ALP 59.94
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 59.99
Safe
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 60.72
Paterson (NSW) Meryl Swanson ALP 60.74
Wakefield (SA) Nick Champion ALP 60.97
Rankin (Qld) Jim Chalmers ALP 61.30
Brand (WA) Madeleine King ALP 61.43
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 62.11
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 62.31
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 62.46
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 63.32
Lalor (Vic) Joanne Ryan ALP 63.44
Whitlam (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 63.72
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP 63.84
Fenner (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 63.89
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 64.17
Port Adelaide (SA) Mark Butler ALP 64.86 v NXT
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 65.31
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP 65.82 v GRN
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 67.05
Scullin (Vic) Andrew Giles ALP 67.28
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 67.49
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 67.58
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 67.87
Gellibrand (Vic) Tim Watts ALP 68.23
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 69.19
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP 69.45
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 69.48
CROSS BENCH SEATS
Indi (Vic) Cathy McGowan IND 54.83 v LIB
Mayo (SA) Rebekha Sharkie NXT 54.97 v LIB
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP 61.12 v LNP
Denison (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 67.78 v ALP
Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 68.48 v LIB

References[edit]

  1. ^ Division Classifications, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.