Pre-election pendulum for the next Australian federal election

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The Coalition won the 2016 federal election with a one-seat majority 76 of 150 lower house seats. Labor held 69 seats while crossbenchers held the remaining five. Subsequent redistributions and a change in representation entitlement will see the number of seats in the lower house increase to 151, with one seat abolished in South Australia and one seat created in each of Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT).

This pendulum shows the notional margins for seats following boundary redistributions in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the ACT. Based on the new boundaries and their notional margins, the Coalition no longer holds a majority with 75 of 151 seats, Labor has 71 seats, with 5 crossbench seats.[1]

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'.".[2]

Pendulum[edit]

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the cross benches according to the percentage-point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

As this pendulum represents the effect of a uniform two-party swing, the results of by-elections after the 2016 federal election are ignored.

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Corangamite (Vic) Sarah Henderson LIB 50.0
Capricornia (Qld) Michelle Landry LNP 50.6
Forde (Qld) Bert van Manen LNP 50.6
Gilmore (NSW) Ann Sudmalis LIB 50.7
Flynn (Qld) Ken O'Dowd LNP 51.0
^^^ Opposition wins majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Robertson (NSW) Lucy Wicks LIB 51.1
Banks (NSW) David Coleman LIB 51.4
Petrie (Qld) Luke Howarth LNP 51.6
Dickson (Qld) Peter Dutton LNP 52.0
Hasluck (WA) Ken Wyatt LIB 52.1
Page (NSW) Kevin Hogan NAT 52.3
Boothby (SA) Nicolle Flint LIB 52.8
Dawson (Qld) George Christensen LNP 53.3
Bonner (Qld) Ross Vasta LNP 53.4
Chisholm (Vic) Julia Banks LIB 53.4
La Trobe (Vic) Jason Wood LIB 53.5
Pearce (WA) Christian Porter LIB 53.6
Swan (WA) Steve Irons LIB 53.6
Leichhardt (Qld) Warren Entsch LNP 54.0
Casey (Vic) Tony Smith LIB 54.5
Reid (NSW) Craig Laundy LIB 54.7
Sturt (SA) Christopher Pyne LIB 55.8
Brisbane (Qld) Trevor Evans LNP 56.0
Fairly safe
Stirling (WA) Michael Keenan LIB 56.1
Deakin (Vic) Michael Sukkar LIB 56.1
Canning (WA) Andrew Hastie LIB 56.8
Bowman (Qld) Andrew Laming LNP 57.1
Flinders (Vic) Greg Hunt LIB 57.2
Aston (Vic) Alan Tudge LIB 57.6
Monash (Vic) Russell Broadbent LIB 57.6
Menzies (Vic) Kevin Andrews LIB 57.9
Wide Bay (Qld) Llew O'Brien LNP 58.3
Hinkler (Qld) Keith Pitt LNP 58.4
Grey (SA) Rowan Ramsey LIB 58.5
Ryan (Qld) Jane Prentice LNP 58.8
Fisher (Qld) Andrew Wallace LNP 59.2
Hughes (NSW) Craig Kelly LIB 59.3
Wannon (Vic) Dan Tehan LIB 59.3
Wright (Qld) Scott Buchholz LNP 59.6
Bennelong (NSW) John Alexander LIB 59.7
Safe
Higgins (Vic) Kelly O'Dwyer LIB 60.2
Hume (NSW) Angus Taylor LIB 60.2
Fairfax (Qld) Ted O'Brien LNP 61.0
Moore (WA) Ian Goodenough LIB 61.0
Durack (WA) Melissa Price LIB 61.1
Tangney (WA) Ben Morton LIB 61.1
Warringah (NSW) Tony Abbott LIB 61.1
Fadden (Qld) Stuart Robert LNP 61.2
Lyne (NSW) David Gillespie NAT 61.6
McPherson (Qld) Karen Andrews LNP 61.6
Calare (NSW) Andrew Gee NAT 61.8
Cowper (NSW) Luke Hartsuyker NAT 62.6
Forrest (WA) Nola Marino LIB 62.6
Goldstein (Vic) Tim Wilson LIB 62.7
Kooyong (Vic) Josh Frydenberg LIB 62.8
North Sydney (NSW) Trent Zimmerman LIB 63.6
Barker (SA) Tony Pasin LIB 64.3
Moncrieff (Qld) Steven Ciobo LNP 64.5
O'Connor (WA) Rick Wilson LIB 65.0
Parkes (NSW) Mark Coulton NAT 65.1
Groom (Qld) John McVeigh LNP 65.3
Cook (NSW) Scott Morrison LIB 65.4
Mackellar (NSW) Jason Falinski LIB 65.7
Berowra (NSW) Julian Leeser LIB 66.4
New England (NSW) Barnaby Joyce NAT 66.4
Riverina (NSW) Michael McCormack NAT 66.4
Maranoa (Qld) David Littleproud LNP 67.5
Wentworth (NSW) TBD LIB 67.7
Mitchell (NSW) Alex Hawke LIB 67.8
Gippsland (Vic) Darren Chester NAT 68.2
Mallee (Vic) Andrew Broad NAT 69.8
Farrer (NSW) Sussan Ley LIB 70.5
Curtin (WA) Julie Bishop LIB 70.7
Bradfield (NSW) Paul Fletcher LIB 71.0
Nicholls (Vic) Damian Drum NAT 72.3
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Herbert (Qld) Cathy O'Toole ALP 50.0
^^^ Government regains majority on a uniform swing ^^^
Cooper (Vic) Ged Kearney ALP v GRN 50.6
Cowan (WA) Anne Aly ALP 50.7
Longman (Qld) Susan Lamb ALP 50.8
Lindsay (NSW) Emma Husar ALP 51.1
Dunkley (Vic) Chris Crewther (LIB)[a] ALP 51.3
Macnamara (Vic) Michael Danby ALP 51.3
Griffith (Qld) Terri Butler ALP 51.4
Braddon (Tas) Justine Keay ALP 51.5
Macquarie (NSW) Susan Templeman ALP 52.2
Isaacs (Vic) Mark Dreyfus ALP 52.3
Eden-Monaro (NSW) Mike Kelly ALP 52.9
Perth (WA) Patrick Gorman ALP 53.3
Bendigo (Vic) Lisa Chesters ALP 53.9
Lyons (Tas) Brian Mitchell ALP 54.0
Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 54.0
Richmond (NSW) Justine Elliot ALP 54.0
Hotham (Vic) Clare O'Neil ALP 54.2
Dobell (NSW) Emma McBride ALP 54.8
Wills (Vic) Peter Khalil ALP v GRN 54.9
Jagajaga (Vic) Jenny Macklin ALP 55.0
Bass (Tas) Ross Hart ALP 55.3
McEwen (Vic) Rob Mitchell ALP 55.3
Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 55.8
Fairly safe
Solomon (NT) Luke Gosling ALP 56.1
Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 56.3
Burt (WA) Matt Keogh ALP 57.1
Ballarat (Vic) Catherine King ALP 57.4
Fremantle (WA) Josh Wilson ALP 57.5
Parramatta (NSW) Julie Owens ALP 57.7
Blair (Qld) Shayne Neumann ALP 58.0
Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 58.1
Hindmarsh (SA) Steve Georganas ALP 58.2
Werriwa (NSW) Anne Stanley ALP 58.2
Barton (NSW) Linda Burney ALP 58.3
Macarthur (NSW) Mike Freelander ALP 58.3
Corio (Vic) Richard Marles ALP 58.3
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 58.6
Bean (ACT) New seat ALP 58.9
Adelaide (SA) Kate Ellis ALP 59.0
Oxley (Qld) Milton Dick ALP 59.1
Maribyrnong (Vic) Bill Shorten ALP 59.4
Shortland (NSW) Pat Conroy ALP 59.9
Holt (Vic) Anthony Byrne ALP 59.9
Safe
Franklin (Tas) Julie Collins ALP 60.7
Paterson (NSW) Meryl Swanson ALP 60.7
Makin (SA) Tony Zappia ALP 60.9
Rankin (Qld) Jim Chalmers ALP 61.3
Brand (WA) Madeleine King ALP 61.4
Fenner (ACT) Andrew Leigh ALP 61.6
McMahon (NSW) Chris Bowen ALP 62.1
Hunter (NSW) Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 62.5
Canberra (ACT) Gai Brodtmann ALP 63.2
Cunningham (NSW) Sharon Bird ALP 63.3
Kingston (SA) Amanda Rishworth ALP 63.5
Whitlam (NSW) Stephen Jones ALP 63.7
Newcastle (NSW) Sharon Claydon ALP 63.8
Lalor (Vic) Joanne Ryan ALP 64.4
Gellibrand (Vic) Tim Watts ALP 64.7
Sydney (NSW) Tanya Plibersek ALP 65.3
Bruce (Vic) Julian Hill ALP 65.7
Grayndler (NSW) Anthony Albanese ALP v GRN 65.8
Fowler (NSW) Chris Hayes ALP 67.5
Watson (NSW) Tony Burke ALP 67.6
Spence (SA) Nick Champion ALP 67.9
Gorton (Vic) Brendan O'Connor ALP 68.3
Chifley (NSW) Ed Husic ALP 69.2
Blaxland (NSW) Jason Clare ALP 69.5
Calwell (Vic) Maria Vamvakinou ALP 70.1
Scullin (Vic) Andrew Giles ALP 70.4
Fraser (Vic) New seat ALP 70.6
CROSS BENCH SEATS
Indi (Vic) Cathy McGowan IND 54.1 v LIB
Mayo (SA) Rebekha Sharkie CA 55.5 v LIB
Kennedy (Qld) Bob Katter KAP 61.1 v LNP
Clark (Tas) Andrew Wilkie IND 67.8 v ALP
Melbourne (Vic) Adam Bandt GRN 69.0 v LIB

Notes[edit]

a Although the seat of Dunkley was a Liberal win at the previous election, the redistribution in Victoria changed it to a notionally marginal Labor seat.

References[edit]

  1. ^ Green, Antony. "2017-18 Federal Redistributions". ABC Elections. ABC. Retrieved 26 August 2018. 
  2. ^ Division Classifications, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.