Predictions for the 2008 elections of the United States House of Representatives

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Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.[1]

Overview[edit]

On April 8, 2008, analyst Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report (who bills himself as non-partisan) stated that the fight for the House would be a "one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets." He points to a list of one dozen seats (out of all 435 seats in the House) that are most likely to change hands, of those twelve, ten are open seats, seats which Republicans won by 3% or less in 2006 or otherwise endangered GOP seats.[2]

In May 2007, conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote that he believed there were at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008". He also said,

Novak qualified this by saying that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election".[3]

InTrade.com, the only betting site that offered odds on control of the House, put the likelihood of the Democrats retaining control at about 90% as of October 2008.[4]

There have been three special elections for open Republican seats, IL-14 (formerly held by Dennis Hastert), LA-06 (formerly held by Richard Baker) and MS-01 (formerly held by Roger Wicker). Democrats won all three elections. After the MS-01 loss, Ron Gunzburger wrote, "GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans."[5]

Table[edit]

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)

District Incumbent Cook[6] Rothenberg[7] CQ Politics[8] Crystal Ball[9]
AL-2 (Everett) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Republican Hold
AL-3 Rogers (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
AL-5 (Cramer) (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Hold
AK-AL Young (R) Tossup D Favored Leans D Democratic Pick-up
AZ-1 (Renzi) (R) Likely D D Favored Leans D Democratic Pick-up
AZ-3 Shadegg (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
AZ-5 Mitchell (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
AZ-8 Giffords (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
CA-3 Lungren (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
CA-4 (Doolittle) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
CA-11 McNerney (D) Leans D Leans D D Favored Democratic Hold
CA-26 Dreier (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
CA-45 Bono (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
CA-46 Rohrabacher (R) Likely R R Favored R Favored Safe R
CA-50 Bilbray (R) Leans R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
CO-4 Musgrave (R) Tossup Leans D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
CT-2 Courtney (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
CT-4 Shays (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
CT-5 Murphy (D) Solid D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
FL-8 Keller (R) Tossup Leans D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
FL-13 Buchanan (R) Likely R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
FL-15 (Weldon) (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
FL-16 Mahoney (D) Likely R R Favored Leans R Republican Pick-up
FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
FL-21 L. Diaz-Balart (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Republican Hold
FL-22 Klein (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
FL-24 Feeney (R) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Pick-up
FL-25 M. Diaz-Balart (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Democratic Pick-up
GA-8 Marshall (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Democratic Hold
GA-12 Barrow (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
GA-13 Scott (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
ID-1 Sali (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
IL-6 Roskam (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
IL-8 Bean (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
IL-10 Kirk (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
IL-11 (Weller) (R) Leans D Leans D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
IL-13 Biggert (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
IL-14 Foster (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
IL-18 (LaHood) (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
IN-3 Souder (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
IN-8 Ellsworth (D) Solid D Limited Risk Safe D Democratic Hold
IN-9 Hill (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
IA-4 Latham (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
KS-2 Boyda (D) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Hold
KS-3 Moore (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
KY-2 (Lewis) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Republican Hold
KY-3 Yarmuth (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
LA-1 Scalise (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
LA-4 (McCrery) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Republican Hold
LA-6 Cazayoux (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Hold
LA-7 Boustany (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
ME-1 (Allen) (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Safe D
MD-1 (Gilchrest) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Republican Hold
MI-7 Walberg (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
MI-8 Rogers (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
MI-9 Knollenberg (R) Tossup Leans D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
MI-11 McCotter (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
MN-1 Walz (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
MN-2 Kline (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
MN-3 (Ramstad) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Republican Hold
MN-6 Bachmann (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
MS-1 Childers (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
MO-6 Graves (R) Leans R Limited Risk Leans R Republican Hold
MO-9 (Hulshof) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Republican Hold
NE-2 Terry (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans R Republican Hold
NV-2 Heller (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
NV-3 Porter (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NH-1 Shea-Porter (D) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Hold
NH-2 Hodes (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
NJ-3 (Saxton) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NJ-5 Garrett (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
NJ-7 (Ferguson) (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NM-1 (Wilson) (R) Leans D Leans D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NM-2 (Pearce) (R) Tossup Leans D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NY-13 (Fossella) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Democratic Pick-up
NY-19 Hall (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
NY-20 Gillibrand (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
NY-24 Arcuri (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
NY-25 (Walsh) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Democratic Pick-up
NY-26 (Reynolds) (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts R Leans R Republican Hold
NY-29 Kuhl (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
NC-5 Foxx (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
NC-8 Hayes (R) Tossup Leans D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
NC-10 McHenry (R) Solid R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-1 Chabot (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
OH-2 Schmidt (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Republican Hold
OH-7 (Hobson) (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-12 Tiberi (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-14 LaTourette (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
OH-15 (Pryce) (R) Leans D Tossup/Tilts D Leans D Democratic Pick-up
OH-16 (Regula) (R) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Pick-up
OH-18 Space (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
OK-1 Sullivan (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
OK-4 Cole (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
OR-5 (Hooley) (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
PA-3 English (R) Tossup Tossup/Tilts D No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
PA-4 Altmire (D) Likely D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
PA-5 (Peterson) (R) Likely R Limited Risk Safe R Safe R
PA-6 Gerlach (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
PA-8 Murphy (D) Solid D Limited Risk D Favored Democratic Hold
PA-10 Carney (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Hold
PA-11 Kanjorski (D) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Republican Pick-up
PA-12 Murtha (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Hold
PA-15 Dent (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
PA-18 Murphy (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Republican Hold
SC-1 Brown (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Republican Hold
SC-2 Wilson (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
TX-7 Culberson (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
TX-10 McCaul (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
TX-22 Lampson (D) Tossup Leans R No Clear Favorite Republican Pick-up
TX-23 Rodriguez (D) Likely D Limited Risk Leans D Democratic Hold
VA-2 Drake (R) Tossup Pure Tossup Leans R Republican Hold
VA-5 Goode (R) Leans R Leans R Leans R Republican Hold
VA-10 Wolf (R) Likely R Limited Risk R Favored Safe R
VA-11 (Davis) (R) Likely D D Favored D Favored Democratic Pick-up
WA-8 Reichert (R) Tossup Pure Tossup No Clear Favorite Democratic Pick-up
WV-2 Capito (R) Leans R R Favored Leans R Republican Hold
WI-8 Kagen (D) Leans D D Favored Leans D Democratic Hold
WY-AL (Cubin) (R) Leans R Leans R No Clear Favorite Republican Hold

References[edit]

  1. ^ Elliott, Scott (November 8, 2006). "The future of the Congress". ElectionProjection.com. Archived from the original on 2007-02-07. Retrieved 2007-02-15. 
  2. ^ Rothenberg, Stuart (April 8, 2008). "Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats". RealClearPolitics.com. Retrieved 2008-04-08. 
  3. ^ Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". Human Events. Retrieved 2007-05-02. 
  4. ^ "Contract - Democratic or GOP control of the House of Representatives, 2008". InTrade.com. Archived from the original on September 19, 2008. Retrieved February 6, 2008. 
  5. ^ Gunzburger, Ron (May 14, 2008). "Politics1.com". Politics1.com. Retrieved 2008-05-14. 
  6. ^ Cook Political Report, as of November 4, 2008
  7. ^ Rothenberg Political Report, as of November 2, 2008
  8. ^ CQ Politics, as of November 3, 2008
  9. ^ The Last Last Word, as of November 3, 2008