RealClearPolitics

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RealClearPolitics
RCP logo
Type of site
News aggregator, political commentary
Available inEnglish
OwnerRealClearInvestors and Crest Media
Created byJohn McIntyre, Tom Bevan
Key peopleTom Bevan (Publisher)
Carl M. Cannon (Executive Editor)
URLrealclearpolitics.com
CommercialYes
RegistrationOptional
LaunchedFebruary 3, 2000 (2000-02-03)[1]
Current statusOnline

RealClearPolitics (RCP) is an American political news site and polling data aggregator formed in 2000 by former options trader John McIntyre and former advertising agency account executive Tom Bevan.[2][3][4][5] The site features selected political news stories and op-eds from various news publications in addition to commentary from its own contributors.[6][3]

The site is prominent during election seasons for its aggregation of polling data.[7][8][9]

Since the end of 2017, Real Clear Politics has had a rightward, pro-Trump turn in its content.[10] According to a 2020 Knight Foundation study, RealClearPolitics is generally read by a moderate audience, leaning slightly toward the right.[11]

Establishment[edit]

The web site was founded in 2000 by McIntyre, a former trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Bevan, a former advertising agency account executive.[4] McIntyre explained "it really wasn't any more complicated than there should be a place online that pulled together all this quality information".[12] They call what they do "intelligent aggregation."[13] The site has grown in election-season spurts since it first went online. It has expanded from a two-man operation to a full-time staff of more than two dozen employees overseeing the company's mainstay, RealClearPolitics, as well as ten smaller sites.

Political orientation[edit]

2000 to 2017[edit]

In a 2001 article for Princeton Alumni Weekly noted that "The articles selected invariably demonstrate McIntyre and Bevan's political bent, about which they are unabashedly forthcoming." McIntyre said, "I'm not really a die-hard Republican because my interests are less on social issues, more on taxing and spending. ... But I definitely don't want the government telling me what to do with my property... Nevertheless, any political junkie—even a liberal—would enjoy our site because the topics we choose are current."[6]

In a 2003 interview with the conservative magazine Human Events, McIntyre described the philosophy behind the website as based on "freedom" and "common-sense values"; Bevan said that the website's owners shared the common conservative belief that the mainstream media was biased "against conservatives, religious conservatives, [and] Christian conservatives".[3]

In a 2004 article for Time, Patrick Stack described the website's commentary section as "right-leaning".[14]

In a 2008 interview with the Chicago Tribune, McIntyre said, "We're trying to pull together the best political stories, op-eds, news analyses, editorials out there. The proliferation of content is enormous. Part of what we're trying to do is distill it in a clear, simple way for people who don't have hours to spend searching the Net".[15] In 2009, RealClearPolitics was described as a weblog "in the conservative pantheon" by Richard Davis.[16][17]

During the 2008 elections, The Wall Street Journal repeatedly referred to RealClearPolitics as "nonpartisan".[18][19] The New York Times referred to its polling practice as a "nonpartisan tally."[20]

The 2012–2013 edition of academic text Cengage Advantage Books: American Government and Politics Today, Brief Edition describes the site as being run by conservatives, and containing "opinion pieces from multiple media sources".[21]

Rightward turn during Trump's presidency[edit]

An October 2019 article in The Daily Beast reported that RealClear Media manages a Facebook page of "far-right memes and Islamophobic smears." Anand Ramanujan, Chief Technology Officer for RealClear Media, responded that the company created the website that was affiliated with the Facebook page "as part of an effort to understand the flow of traffic from social media—particularly Facebook—to political websites."[22]

Since 2017, when a large number of its journalists were fired, RealClearPolitics has had a rightward, pro-Trump turn.[10] The website published articles of its own, as well as promoted articles by other conservative websites, which pushed conspiracy theories about Trump's opponents.[10] After Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election and Donald Trump refused to concede, Real Clear Politics published stories that made false claims of fraud in the election.[10]

Real Clear Politics heavily promotes content by The Federalist, a right-wing site which draws funding from the same pool of donor money as Real Clear Politics.[10]

In 2016, RealClearInvestigations was launched,[23] backed by foundations that promote right-wing views, such as the Ed Uihlein Family Foundation and Sarah Scaife Foundation.[24] In 2019, the site published an article by a conservative author, Paul Sperry, containing the supposed name of a U.S. intelligence officer who blew the whistle on the Trump–Ukraine scandal.[24] The article's publication came as part of a month-long effort by Trump allies on media and social media to "unmask" the whistleblower, whose identity was kept confidential by the U.S. government, in accordance with whistleblower protection (anti-retaliation) laws.[24] Most publications declined to reveal the whistleblower's identity; RealClearInvestigations' editor defended the site's decision to publish the article.[24]

Ownership[edit]

Forbes Media LLC bought a 51% equity interest in the site in 2007.[25] On May 19, 2015, RealClearInvestors and Crest Media announced that they had bought out Forbes's stake for an undisclosed amount.[26]

RealClearPolitics also owns RealClearMarkets, RealClearWorld, and RealClearSports.[27] RealClearMarkets and RealClearSports were launched in November 2007. RealClearWorld, the international news and politics site, was launched in August 2008. RealClearScience and RealClearReligion launched in October 2010.[28] RealClearHistory launched in 2012; in 2013 RealClearDefense was launched to cover military, intelligence, and veterans' issues.[29]

Original content[edit]

In addition to linking to external content, RealClearPolitics also provides original commentary and reporting, with a staff that includes Carl M. Cannon, Scott Conroy, Erin McPike, Caitlin Huey-Burns, Alexis Simendinger, James Arkin, and Sean Trende.

Political poll averaging[edit]

RealClearPolitics aggregates polls for presidential and congressional races into averages, known as the RealClearPolitics average, which are widely cited by media outlets. However, some statisticians say that it is sometimes misleading to average results from multiple polls.[30] In 2008, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight said that RealClearPolitics was rigging its averages to favor Senator John McCain and other Republicans, although he later receded from this claim, indicating that his site and RCP had a friendly rivalry.[31] McIntyre denied having a conservative bent, saying that the site was a business and had "no interest in screwing around with that for partisan purposes".[31]

In 2016, Republicans performed 1.7% better than the final RealClearPolitics average,[32] and Republicans performed 3.3% better than the site's average in 2014.[33] In the 2016 presidential election, the final RealClearPolitics average margin overestimated Democrat Hillary Clinton's popular vote performance by 1.3%. The final electoral college prediction map produced by RealClearPolitics predicted the average outcome to be that she would narrowly win the election with 272 electoral votes. However, she lost the election to Republican Donald Trump in spite of winning the popular vote.[34] In 2018, the site underestimated the Democratic vote in the 2018 congressional elections by just over one percentage point.[35]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "RealClearPolitics.com WHOIS, DNS, & Domain Info – DomainTools". WHOIS. Retrieved 2016-10-21.
  2. ^ "Polling Averages". RealClearPolitics. April 21, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-21.
  3. ^ a b c D'Agostino, Joseph A. (31 March 2003). "Conservative Spotlight: Real Clear Politics". Human Events. 59 (11): 16.
  4. ^ a b Zorn, Eric (October 26, 2004). "Political site polls well with election junkies". Chicago Tribune: Metro, 1. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
  5. ^ Wolinsky, Howard (September 18, 2006). "Politicking pays off: Web site a must-read for political fanatics". Chicago Sun-Times: 55.
  6. ^ a b Rob MacKay, "Political junkies create Web site for opinion and analysis", June 6, 2001 Princeton Alumni Weekly. Princeton
  7. ^ Jones, Tim (2008-10-19). "Candidates come courting the Hoosiers". Los Angeles Times. ISSN 0458-3035. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  8. ^ "Obama's surge swamps Hillary". 2008-02-10. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  9. ^ "Obama cuts into Clinton's majority – US Election – smh.com.au". www.smh.com.au. Retrieved 2017-01-22.
  10. ^ a b c d e Peters, Jeremy W. (2020-11-17). "A Popular Political Site Made a Sharp Right Turn. What Steered It?". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-12-20.
  11. ^ "American Views 2020: Trust, Media and Democracy" (PDF). Knight Foundation. November 9, 2020. p. 57.
  12. ^ Wolgemuth, Liz (December 12, 2007). "Political Junkies Spawn a Real, Clear Success". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved 2008-04-07.
  13. ^ "Real Clear Politics Real Clear on its Growth, Mission". The Chicago Tribune. February 7, 2008. Retrieved 2008-04-07.
  14. ^ Stack, Patrick (October 14, 2004). "Cheat Sheet: Election Websites". Time. Archived from the original on October 16, 2004. Retrieved 2009-07-15. RealClearPolitics.com scores points for its in-depth, right-leaning commentary section
  15. ^ Johnson, Steve (February 7, 2008). "Real Clear Politics real clear on its growth, mission". Chicago Tribune.
  16. ^ Richard Davis, Typing Politics: The Role of Blogs in American Politics p. 54 (2009) Oxford University Press Google.
  17. ^ Richard Davis, Politics Online: Blogs, Chatrooms, and Discussion Groups in American Democracy p. 43 (2013) Routledge Google.
  18. ^ Holmes, Elizabeth. "Polls Show Race Tightening in Florida". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
  19. ^ Chozick, Amy. "Candidates Focus on Western States". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
  20. ^ Knowlton, Brian. "In projections, Obama holds electoral lead". The New York Times. Retrieved 3 May 2020.
  21. ^ Steffen Schmidt, Mack Shelley, Barbara Bardes, Cengage Advantage Books: American Government and Politics Today p. 140 Google. Cengage Learning, 2012
  22. ^ Poulse, Kevin; Maxwell, Tani (October 8, 2019). "RealClear Media Has a Secret Facebook Page to Push Far-Right Memes". Retrieved October 8, 2019.
  23. ^ "A New Destination for Investigative Journalism". RealClearInvestigations. Retrieved 2019-11-12.
  24. ^ a b c d Isaac Stanley-Becker & Craig Timberg, Trump's allies turned to online campaign in quest to unmask Ukraine whistleblower, Washington Post (November 7, 2019).
  25. ^ "Forbes Media Acquires Fifty-One Percent Stake in RealClearPolitics.com". Forbes (Press release). November 7, 2007 – via Business Wire.
  26. ^ "Crest Media And Real Clear Investors Buy Remaining Stake In RealClearPolitics" (Press release). Crest Media. May 19, 2015 – via PRNewswire.com.
  27. ^ Gustafson, Colin (March 10, 2008). "On Web, Political Junkies Make a Real Clear Choice". The New York Sun. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  28. ^ "New RealClear Sites Launching Today – Real Clear Politics – TIME.com".
  29. ^ "RealClearDefense - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls". realcleardefense.com.
  30. ^ Bialik, Carl (February 15, 2008). "Election Handicappers Are Using Risky Tool: Mixed Poll Averages". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
  31. ^ a b Becker, Bernie (2008-10-28). "Political Polling Sites Are in a Race of Their Own". New York Times. Retrieved 2009-11-07.
  32. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2016 Generic Congressional Vote". www.realclearpolitics.com.
  33. ^ https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html
  34. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein". www.realclearpolitics.com.
  35. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election Other - 2018 Generic Congressional Vote". www.realclearpolitics.com.

External links[edit]