Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
United States
2012 ←
February 1 – June 7, 2016 → 2020

2,472 delegates to the Republican National Convention
1,237 delegate votes needed to win
  Donald Trump August 19, 2015 (cropped).jpg Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz
Home state New York Texas
Estimated delegate count 755 465
Contests won 21 9
Popular vote 7,827,249 5,741,583
Percentage 37.10% 27.22%

  Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Governor John Kasich (cropped2).jpg
Candidate Marco Rubio John Kasich
Home state Florida Ohio
Estimated delegate count 169 144
Contests won 3 1
Popular vote 3,467,569 2,808,917
Percentage 16.44% 13.32%

Republican Party presidential primaries results, 2016.svg

First place by popular vote
     Donald Trump      Ted Cruz
     Marco Rubio      John Kasich
     Uncommitted

Previous Republican nominee

Mitt Romney

The 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses are a series of ongoing electoral contests taking place within all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories, occurring between February 1 and June 7. Sanctioned by the Republican Party, these elections are designed to select the 2,472 delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, which will select the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States and approve the party platform. The Republican nominee will challenge other presidential candidates in national elections to succeed President Barack Obama in January 2017 following his two terms in office.

A total of 17 candidates entered the race starting March 23, 2015, when Senator Ted Cruz of Texas formally announced his candidacy: former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, neurosurgeon Ben Carson of Maryland, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, businesswoman Carly Fiorina of Virginia, former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, former Governor George Pataki of New York, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, businessman and reality television host Donald Trump of New York, and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. The total of 17 major candidates made it the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history.[1]

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham, and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. While leading many polls entering the Iowa caucuses, Trump came in second to Cruz. Afterwards, Huckabee, Paul, and Santorum withdrew due to poor performance at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina, and Gilmore withdrew. After the conclusion of the South Carolina primary, Bush withdrew from the race following a second win for Trump. On March 1, or Super Tuesday, Trump won seven and Cruz won three of the eleven states voting, while Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota. Carson announced the following day that he was unable to "see a political path forward" after dismal results, and formally suspended his campaign during CPAC in National Harbor, Maryland, on March 4.[2][3] On March 15, Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state of Florida.[4]

Since March 15, three major candidates remain active in the Republican primaries and caucuses: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich.

Candidates and results[edit]

The following seventeen candidates have been listed in major independent nationwide polls and have filed as candidates with the Federal Election Commission. (See the main article for other notable candidates.) There will be a total of 2,472 delegates going to the 2016 Republican National Convention and the winning candidate will need a simple majority of 1,237 votes to be the Republican nominee.

According to Rule 40(b) of the RNC Rules of the Republican Party,[5] enacted prior to the 2012 convention and amended most recently in 2014, nominations may be made only of candidates who demonstrate the support of a majority of delegates of at least eight state delegations (previously, this had been a lower threshold of a plurality in five states). Further, Rule 40(a) states that if only one candidate achieves this goal, then there should be no vote, and only a motion to nominate by acclamation.[5] As of March 17, 2016, only one candidate has met this criterion (Trump: 11 states, Cruz: 5, Kasich: 1, Rubio: 2). However, per Rule 42, Rules 26–42 are "Standing Rules for this convention (2012) and the temporary rules for the next convention (2016)". While the current candidates operate under these temporary rules, it is unclear whether they will remain in place for the 2016 convention.[6][7][8][9] As of March 16, 2016, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus has not taken a position on the potential rule change, while others in the party advocate for it.[10]

Though a state is often referred to as "won" by a candidate if a plurality of the states delegates are bound to him, Rule 40(b) requires that for the state to count as one of the eight a majority of the states' delegates must be won. Convention rules are based on delegates won, and not the popular vote. In the context of Republican primaries, the term 'states' refers collectively to states, Washington D.C. (District of Columbia) and the five territories (altogether 56) rather than the actual 50 states alone. States where the candidates have achieved a majority of delegates are marked in bold.

Candidate Most recent position Campaign
(withdrawal date)
Projected
delegates
[11]
Popular vote
[11]
Contests won
Donald Trump August 19, 2015 (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump
Chairman of The Trump Organization
(1971–present)
Trump Transparent.svg
(CampaignPositions)
Campaign site
755 / 1,237
(61.06%)
7,827,249
(37.10%)
21
AL, AR, AZ, FL, GA, HI, IL, KY, LA, MA, MI, MO, MP, MS, NC, NV, NH, SC, TN, VA, VT
Ted Cruz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Ted Cruz
U.S. Senator from Texas
(2013–present)
Cruz 2k16 text.png
(CampaignPositions)
Campaign site
465 / 1,237
(37.64%)
5,741,583
(27.22%)
9
AK, ID, IA, KS, ME, OK, TX, UT, WY
MarcoRubioColorEnhanced112thCongress.jpg
Marco Rubio
U.S. Senator from Florida
(2011–present)
Marcorubio.svg
(CampaignPositions)
Withdrew: March 15, 2016
169 3,467,569
(16.44%)
3
DC, MN, PR
Governor John Kasich.jpg
John Kasich
69th
Governor of Ohio

(2011–present)
Kasich 2016.png
(CampaignPositions)
Campaign site
144 / 1,237
(11.64%)
2,808,917
(13.32%)
1
OH
Ben Carson by Gage Skidmore 6.jpg
Ben Carson
Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery
for Johns Hopkins Hospital

(1984–2013)
Carson for President 2016.png
(CampaignPositions)
Withdrew: March 4, 2016
(endorsed Donald Trump)
8 691,862
(3.28%)
Jeb Bush - Jan 2016 town hall meeting Ankeny Iowa.tiff
Jeb Bush
43rd
Governor of Florida

(1999–2007)
Jeb!.svg
(CampaignPositions)
Withdrew: February 20, 2016
(endorsed Ted Cruz)
4 254,022
(1.20%)
Rand Paul, official portrait, 112th Congress alternate (cropped).jpg
Rand Paul
U.S. Senator from Kentucky
(2011–present)
Rand Paul Presidential Campaign logo.svg
(CampaignPositions)
Withdrew: February 3, 2016
1 56,239
(0.27%)
Chris Christie April 2015 (cropped).jpg
Chris Christie
55th
Governor of New Jersey

(2010–present)
Christie 2k16.png
(CampaignPositions)
Withdrew: February 10, 2016
(endorsed Donald Trump)
52,609
(0.25%)
Mike Huckabee by Gage Skidmore 6.jpg
Mike Huckabee
44th
Governor of Arkansas

(1996–2007)
Huckabee Plain.png
(CampaignPositions)
Withdrew: February 1, 2016
1 47,155
(0.22%)
Carly Fiorina by Gage Skidmore 3 (cropped).jpg
Carly Fiorina
CEO of Hewlett-Packard
(1999–2005)
Carly 2016.svg
(CampaignPositions)
Withdrew: February 10, 2016
(endorsed Ted Cruz)
1 35,204
(0.17%)
Rick Santorum by Gage Skidmore 11.jpg
Rick Santorum
U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania
(1995–2007)
Santorum 2k16 text.png
(Campaign)
Withdrew: February 3, 2016
(endorsed Marco Rubio)
15,720
(0.07%)
Jim Gilmore 2015.jpg
Jim Gilmore
68th
Governor of Virginia

(1998–2002)
Gilmore 2016.png
(Campaign)
Withdrew: February 12, 2016
2,671
(0.01%)
Others 94,500
(0.45%)
Total
1,548 / 2,472
21,092,758
(100%)
34
(34 / 56)
Withdrawn candidates shaded. Bolded states demonstrate the support of a majority in that state's delegation on the first ballot; according to Rule 40(b) (see above), 8 states are needed.

Withdrew before the primaries[edit]

Result by delegates[edit]

Delegation Vote ,2016 (Republican Party).svg

Result by popular votes[edit]

U.S. States by Vote Distribution, 2016 (Republican Party).svg

Result by counties[edit]

Republican Party presidential primaries results by county, 2016.svg

Timeline of the race[edit]

Background[edit]

2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney lost the election to incumbent President Barack Obama. The Republican National Committee, believing that the long, drawn-out 2012 primary season had damaged Romney politically, drafted plans to condense the 2016 primary season. As part of these plans, the 2016 Republican National Convention was scheduled for the relatively early date of July 18–21,[12] the earliest since Republicans nominated Thomas Dewey in June 1948.[13][14] By comparison, the 2012 Republican National Convention was held August 27–30.

With Ohio Governor John Kasich's announcement on July 21, 2015, the field reached 16 candidates[15] and thus officially became the largest presidential field in the history of the Republican Party, surpassing the 1948 primaries. With former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore's announcement on July 30,[16] the field reached 17 candidates, becoming the largest presidential field in American history, surpassing the 16 candidates in the Democratic Party presidential primaries of both 1972 and 1976.[17][18] The 17 major candidates and the lack of a clear front-runner formed the most open presidential primary contest in American history. As of March 16, 2016, three candidates are left in the race.

In mid-December 2014, Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who was widely seen as a possible frontrunner for the nomination due to his relatively moderate stances, record as governor of a crucial swing state, name recognition, and access to high-paying donors, was the first candidate to form a political action committee (PAC) and exploratory committee.[19] Many other candidates followed suit. The first candidate to declare his candidacy was Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who is popular among grassroots conservatives due to his association with the Tea Party movement.[20][21]

The 2016 candidates originate in several Republican Party tendencies, with the grassroots conservatives represented by Cruz and Ben Carson, the Christian right represented by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and the moderates or establishment represented by Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, among others. In addition, some candidates are seen as appealing to both conservatives and moderates, such as Kasich, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Two notable candidates from the previous primaries in 2012 returned for a second consecutive run in 2016: Santorum and Former Texas Governor Rick Perry. Lastly, there are candidates with minimal to no political experience, including Carson, businessman Donald Trump, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who tout their lack of political experience as a positive while others criticize it as making them unqualified for the office.[22][23][24]

The field has been noted for its diversity and has even been called the most diverse presidential field in American history. This included two Latinos (Cruz and Rubio), a woman (Fiorina), an Indian-American (Jindal), and an African-American (Carson). Cruz, Jindal, Rubio, Santorum, and Trump are the sons of immigrants.[25][26][27][28]

Overview[edit]

Rick Perry presidential campaign, 2016 Scott Walker presidential campaign, 2016 Bobby Jindal presidential campaign, 2016 Lindsey Graham presidential campaign, 2016 George Pataki presidential campaign, 2016 Mike Huckabee presidential campaign, 2016 Rand Paul presidential campaign, 2016 Rick Santorum presidential campaign, 2016 Carly Fiorina presidential campaign, 2016 Chris Christie presidential campaign, 2016 Jim Gilmore presidential campaign, 2016 Jeb Bush presidential campaign, 2016 Ben Carson presidential campaign, 2016 Marco Rubio presidential campaign, 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016 John Kasich presidential campaign, 2016 Ted Cruz presidential campaign, 2016
Active campaigns
Campaigns ended during the primaries
Campaigns ended before the primaries
Primary elections begin
Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday II
Primary elections end
Convention 2016

2012–14: Fluctuating polls[edit]

Governor Chris Christie polled highly until the 2014 "Bridgegate" scandal.
He suspended his campaign after falling below the threshold in New Hampshire.

After Mitt Romney's failed 2012 campaign, the potential 2016 field was left without a clear future nominee, similarly to 2008. Different speculations began rising from all sides of the right-leaning political spectrum as to who would make the best possible nominee: One faction of candidates included young freshmen senators, some with alliances to the Tea Party movement, such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio in particular was the focus of attention immediately following 2012. In most national polls from late 2012 to mid-2013, Rubio was leading due to being young, articulate, having a broad appeal among conservatives and moderates, and also for his Latino heritage and continued efforts on immigration reform, which many viewed as possible tools to draw Hispanic voters to the GOP.[29][30][31]

However, another narrative for the nomination, similar to that which drove Romney's campaign, was that the nominee needed to be a governor in a traditionally Democratic or swing state, with a proven record that would stand as proof that such a governor could be president as well. The possible candidates that fit this criteria included former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, Ohio governor John Kasich, former New York governor George Pataki, and New Jersey governor Chris Christie. Christie in particular had been rising in popularity due to his loud and blunt manner of speaking at public events, which was championed by some as challenging conventional political rhetoric.[32][33][34] With his record as governor of New Jersey, a heavily Democratic state, factored in, Christie overtook Rubio in the polls from mid-2013 up until early 2014, when the "Bridgegate" scandal was first revealed and started to damage Christie's reputation and poll standing.[35] Although Christie was later cleared of personal responsibility in the subsequent investigation, he never regained frontrunner status.[36]

After Christie's fall in the polls, the polls fluctuated from January 2014 to November 2014; candidates who often performed well included Rand Paul, Wisconsin congressman and 2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, and former candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and then-governor of Texas Rick Perry, further reflecting the uncertainty of the upcoming race for the nomination.[37][38]

2014–15: Jeb Bush leading the polls[edit]

Despite holding an unsteady lead in most of 2014 and early 2015, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush was unable to garner popular support, and suspended his campaign after the South Carolina primary.

In April 2014, Robert Costa and Philip Rucker of The Washington Post reported that the period of networking and relationship-building that they dubbed the "credentials caucus" had begun, with prospective candidates "quietly study[ing] up on issues and cultivat[ing] ties to pundits and luminaries from previous administrations."[39]

Though Bush often polled in the low double digits, he was considered a prominent candidate due to his high fundraising ability, record as governor of Florida (a crucial swing state), and electability.[40][41] By November 2014, Bush had finally solidified his lead in the polls.[42][43] Around this time there were talks of the possibility of former nominee Mitt Romney making a third run for the presidency. During this period from November 2014 until late January 2015, the speculation fueled Romney's rise in many national polls as well, challenging Bush.[44] Although Romney admitted he was entertaining the idea after initially declining, he ultimately reaffirmed his decision not to run on January 30.[45]

However, by the end of February, less than a month after Romney ruled himself out, another challenger rose to match Bush in the polls: Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. Walker often touted his record as governor in a traditionally Democratic state, particularly noting his victory in a recall election in 2012 (the first governor in American history to do so), combined with his reelection in 2014. Walker and Bush balanced out in the polls from late February until about mid-June.[46] Walker's challenge to Bush also allowed other candidates to briefly resurge in some polls from late April up until mid-June, including former top performers Rubio, Paul, and Huckabee, in addition to several newcomers to the top tier of polling, including Ted Cruz and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson.[37][38]

Mid-2015: Donald Trump and the rise of the outsiders[edit]

Donald Trump's poll numbers surged as he entered the race and he held a strong lead entering the primary season. Trump won three of the first four primaries.

Shortly after businessman and reality TV host Donald Trump announced his candidacy on June 16, many pundits noted his uniquely outspoken nature, blunt language, and rhetoric often directly contradicting traditional political candidates. This style was seen as resonating strongly with potential Republican primary voters, and Trump began to rise in the polls.[47] After a few weeks of briefly matching Bush, Trump surged into first place in all major national polls by mid-July,[48] which he continued to lead consistently until November. Trump also polled well in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, often leading or coming in second in those states.

Although Carly Fiorina rose in the polls after the second debate, she failed to capitalize on her momentum and faded quickly. She ultimately suspended her campaign after New Hampshire.

With the surge of Trump, a man who had never held political office, the general focus began to shift over to other non-politician candidates, commonly known as "outsiders," and the other two outsiders in the field quickly rose in the polls as well in the wake of the first two debates: Ben Carson rose into second place after a well-received performance in the first debate, while former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina rose into the top three after her performance in the second debate.[49][50][51] The rising popularity of non-politician outsiders shocked many political analysts, and fueled a new conversation about how those with no political experience or prior runs for office could appeal more to potential primary voters than lifelong career politicians, and what it means for the future of the Republican party and American politics in general.[52][53][54]

In mid-September, the first two major candidates dropped out of the race. Former Texas governor Rick Perry suspended his campaign on September 11, citing his failure to qualify for the primetime debates, his subsequent failure to raise a significant amount of money, and his indictment as reasons for dropping out.[55][56] Ten days later, Scott Walker suspended his campaign on September 21, mainly due to his own poll numbers dropping after two lackluster debate performances.[57]

End of 2015: The field stabilizes[edit]

Governor Scott Walker surprised many political observers when he announced the suspension of his campaign on September 21, 2015, in Wisconsin.

By September, most polling averages indicated that the field was finally stabilizing in terms of public opinion, and six candidates in particular were gaining traction and pulling away from the rest of the field by considerable margins. Polling averages indicated the top six as Trump, Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, Bush, and Cruz. Trump and Carson were consistently first and second, respectively, while Fiorina was initially in third before being surpassed by Rubio, and Bush and Cruz remained in fifth and sixth, respectively.[58][59][60] The other candidates who had been in the top ten of polling (Christie, Huckabee, Paul, and Kasich) all leveled out at roughly 3% or less, while the five remaining candidates outside the top ten (Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, and Jim Gilmore) were consistently polling below 1%.

By the third debate in late October, Bush and Fiorina's numbers were also beginning to fade, while Cruz was on the rise and began coming in fourth by most poll averages. The third debate only solidified these numbers – Bush and Fiorina's numbers and support continued to fall as both were considered lackluster, while Cruz was widely held as the winner and rose even further.[61][62] Throughout this period, Trump and Carson alone had pulled well ahead of the rest of the field, and with Trump often registering in the low 30s and high 20s, and Carson in the low 20s, the two of them combined often made up well over 50% of the electorate in a vast majority of national polls. Later in October and in early November, Carson began to match even with Trump by most polling averages, rising into the mid 20s and often finishing either just behind or just ahead of Trump.[37][63][64]

An autumn surge had former neurosurgeon Ben Carson polling even with Trump at one point, but his support decreased significantly following the terrorist attacks in Paris, which highlighted Carson's perceived inexperience on foreign policy. He later suspended his campaign after four last-place finishes on Super Tuesday and endorsed Donald Trump.[65]

By October, with the polls reflecting a field that seemed to be stabilizing, most commentators began to claim that the field had already established who the final four candidates – those who were in the race for the long-term, and had the best chance of actually becoming the nominee – would be.[66] The four were listed as being Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz – Trump and Carson for their appeal as outsiders, as well as their opposite personalities – with Trump's blunt nature and tough foreign policy stances, against Carson's soft-spoken nature and personal favorability; Rubio for his appeal to Hispanics and his moderate stances on such issues as immigration reform, combined with strong debate performances and significant donor backing; and Cruz for his appeal to Tea Party and Christian Conservative voters, which was seen as possibly having a strong impact in the southern states.[66][67][68][69]

On November 17, then-Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal became the third major Republican candidate to drop out, roughly two months after Walker in late September.[70]

The November 2015 Paris attacks were widely seen as having a significant impact on the 2016 presidential race, particularly on the Republican side.[71] The attacks were seen as boosting the campaigns of those with tough stances on immigration like Trump and Cruz, as well as the foreign policy hawks like Rubio.[72][73] Possibly as a result, Carson – who had previously been perceived as uninformed and relatively inarticulate on foreign policy – began to suffer in the polls, with Trump once again solidifying a double-digit lead over everyone else, while Rubio and Cruz began to steadily rise as Carson's numbers declined.[74]

Senator Ted Cruz saw a steady rise in the polls following the CNBC debate in late October. He began the election cycle with a win in Iowa, and is currently second in total delegates.

By December, Cruz had overtaken Carson by solidifing a base of support among Christian conservatives, and averaged national polling of 18%, second only to Trump.[75] The non-interventionist Paul also continued to fail to make traction at this juncture, while Carson fell down to about 10%, roughly even with Rubio. On December 15, there was another presidential debate, which saw no major changes in the perceptions of the candidates.

On December 21, which was the deadline to withdraw from the ballot in his home state of South Carolina, Graham suspended his campaign. Eight days later, on December 29, Pataki, who was struggling to poll above the margin of error, suspended his campaign as well.[76]

January 2016: The road to the early primaries[edit]

2016 dawned with the several-month-long truce between Trump and Cruz being broken.[77] Cruz accused Trump of not being a consistent conservative or an ethical businessman, while Trump questioned the Canadian-born Cruz's constitutional eligibility to be President while noting Cruz's past calls for immigration reform.[78][79] This occurred as Trump and Cruz were vying for supremacy at the top of Iowa polls, in addition to both being the top two candidates in all national polls, ahead of the rest of the field by significant margins.[80][81] In the closing weeks before Iowa, Trump and Cruz ran dueling television commercials, each attacking the other's record.[82] Meanwhile, there was conflict between "establishment" candidates Rubio, Christie, Bush and Kasich, largely due to a media-reinforced belief that only a single establishment candidate could remain in the race past the early primaries. The establishment candidates staked their bids on strong showings in New Hampshire, and both Christie and Kasich saw upticks in their polling in the weeks before the primary.[83][84] Both the Trump-Cruz conflict and the squabbling between establishment candidates was evident at the Republican debate on January 14. The Republican debate of January 28, devoid of Trump due to conflicts with moderator Megyn Kelly, was the candidates' last shot at honing their message before the Iowa caucuses. Immigration and foreign policy featured prominently in this debate, and many candidates used the opportunity to criticize the second-place Cruz, who was also being heavily criticized by prominent Republican leaders in the weeks before Iowa.[85][86]

February 2016: Early primaries[edit]

Early states results
Candidate Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Bush Gilmore Christie Fiorina Paul Huckabee Santorum
Delegates won 82 17 16 6 5 4 0 0 1 1 1 0
Popular vote 421,577
(32.7%)
266,406
(20.7%)
257,804
(20.0%)
107,525
(8.4%)
81,091
(6.3%)
94,477
(7.4%)
145
(0.01%)
24,403
(1.9%)
15,213
(1.2%)
10,551
(0.8%)
3,581
(0.3%)
1,945
(0.2%)
States won 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feb 1 Iowa 24% 28% 23% 2% 9% 3% 0% 2% 2% 5% 2% 1%
Feb 9 New Hampshire 35% 12% 11% 16% 2% 11% 0% 7% 4% 1% N/A
Feb 20 South Carolina 33% 22% 23% 8% 7% 8% N/A
Feb 23 Nevada 46% 21% 24% 4% 5% N/A
Ohio Governor John Kasich, shown here in Nashua, New Hampshire, finished second in New Hampshire after holding over 100 town hall meetings

In the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, Ted Cruz won a narrow victory over Trump and Rubio.[87] Following poor performances in Iowa, three candidates suspended their campaigns: Huckabee (the winner of the caucuses in 2008), Santorum (the winner of the caucuses in 2012), and Paul, narrowing the field of candidates to nine.[88][89][90] After coming third in the Iowa caucuses, the media quickly painted Rubio as the candidate most likely to pick up the establishment mantle and ride it to the nomination following a strong performance in New Hampshire, much as John McCain and Mitt Romney had done in 2008 and 2012. Marco Rubio used this narrative to pick up a number of endorsements in the days following the Iowa caucuses. However, in the New Hampshire debate of February 6, Marco Rubio repeated a talking point four times almost verbatim during an exchange with Chris Christie, which led to sharp criticism of his performance in the aftermath.[91]

In the New Hampshire primary, Trump scored a decisive victory over the rest of the field, winning the primary with 35% of the vote. Kasich, who had held over 100 town halls in the state, finished second in a surprise to many in the media. Cruz coming in 3rd in the contest was also a shock to many, while Rubio slipped to 5th, behind Trump, Kasich, Cruz, and Jeb Bush, whose campaign appeared to be revitalized following several months of apparent stagnation. After coming in 7th place in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Fiorina suspended her campaign on February 10.[92] Later that same day, Christie, whose campaign was staked almost entirely on getting a strong showing in New Hampshire, suspended his campaign after coming in sixth in New Hampshire, thus failing to reach the minimum 10% vote threshold required to be allocated delegates from the state, and also failing to qualify for the next debate on CBS.[93][94] Later that week, Jim Gilmore, who had failed to gain traction, win delegates, or be invited to most of the debates, suspended his campaign, narrowing the field to six.[95]

The third contest was in South Carolina. Trump again won by double digits, garnering 33% of the vote with a 10% margin over the runner-up, Rubio, who edged Cruz to second place by 0.2%. Since Trump carried the vote both statewide and in each congressional district, his result netted him all 50 delegates available in the state.[96][97] Following disappointing finishes in the first three contests despite outspending his competitors, Jeb Bush suspended his campaign.[98]

Three days following the South Carolina primary, Trump won the Nevada caucuses in what was his biggest victory to date; winning roughly 46% of the vote with Rubio in a distant second with 24% and Cruz slightly farther behind with 21%.[99]

March 1, 2016: Super Tuesday[edit]

Super Tuesday voting, after the early voting in February, decided nearly half of the delegate votes needed to achieve the 1,237 votes to win the nomination at the 2016 Republican National Convention, with 595 delegates at stake. North Dakota held the last caucus on Super Tuesday, but there is no presidential straw poll and all the delegates elected later at its convention will be unbound. Wyoming takes a straw poll, but it is non-binding and no delegates are allocated on Super Tuesday.

Leading up to Super Tuesday a debate between the remaining five candidates took place in Houston, Texas on the prior Thursday. Political rhetoric and charges heated up with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio attacking front-runner Donald Trump.

States holding primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday, 2016:
  Primary or caucus; delegates bound and allocated
  Non-binding poll or caucus; delegates allocated later
  Primary or caucus already held
Super Tuesday results
Candidate Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Uncom.
Delegates won 258 219 92 21 3 2
Popular vote 2,947,351
(34.4%)
2,499,453
(29.2%)
1,876,931
(21.9%)
543,842
(6.4%)
492,234
(5.8%)
States won 7 3 1 0 0
Alabama 43% 21% 19% 4% 10%
Alaska 34% 36% 15% 4% 11%
Arkansas 33% 30% 25% 4% 6%
Georgia 39% 24% 25% 6% 6%
Massachusetts 49% 10% 18% 18% 3%
Minnesota 21% 29% 37% 6% 7%
Oklahoma 28% 34% 26% 4% 6%
Tennessee 39% 25% 21% 5% 8%
Texas 27% 44% 18% 4% 4%
Vermont 33% 10% 19% 30% 4%
Virginia 35% 17% 32% 9% 6%
Marco Rubio was considered a leading candidate for both establishment and tea party constituencies, polling in the top three in late 2015 and early 2016. He won his first state on Super Tuesday, capturing Minnesota. After a loss in his home state of Florida, he suspended his campaign on March 15, 2016.

Trump won the contests in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. Cruz netted a strong victory in his home state of Texas, and added victories in Oklahoma and Alaska. Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota caucuses, and finished a strong second in Virginia. Kasich won no contests, but finished second in Vermont and Massachusetts. Carson did not win or place in any contest, netted only three delegates, and though he initially expressed an intent to stay in the race, began showing signs of withdrawing in the days following Super Tuesday; he ultimately suspended his campaign on March 4.[100][101][102]

Early March 2016: Between Super Tuesdays[edit]

After Super Tuesday voting, but before winner-take-all voting can begin, nine states, two territories, and Washington D.C. hold their primaries and caucuses. During this period, there are 377 delegates at stake. On March 3, former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney criticized Donald Trump in a heavily publicized speech. Later that day, there was another GOP debate, which again featured Trump, Cruz and Rubio exchanging vitriolic barbs. On March 4, Carson announced the suspension of his campaign, narrowing the race to 4 candidates; he subsequently endorsed Trump.[103] Meanwhile, as the prospect of a Trump nomination became more imminent, establishment Republicans pressured Romney or Speaker of the House Paul Ryan to enter the race.[104][105]

On March 5, Cruz won the Kansas and Maine caucuses. Trump won the Kentucky caucus and the Louisiana primary. Rubio and Kasich did not finish first or second on any primaries on "Super Saturday". The following day, the first of the 2016 primaries to be held in a US territory went to Marco Rubio, who won all of Puerto Rico's 23 delegates.[106]

On March 8, Trump won in Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii, while Ted Cruz took Idaho. Meanwhile, March 8 was not a good night for Rubio, who missed delegate thresholds in Michigan, Mississippi and Idaho, finishing the night with only a single delegate. Despite some favorable polling in Michigan,[107] Kasich did not win any primaries, but he still picked up 17 delegates. Neither Rubio nor Kasich finished first or second in any primaries held on March 8.

In the Virgin Islands caucuses on March 10, a slate composed wholly of uncommitted delegates was initially elected. The entire slate was later disqualified by the territorial party, however, and replaced by the elected alternates – 2 uncommitted, 2 for Rubio, 1 for Cruz, and 1 for Trump.[108] Also on March 10, there was a debate in Florida between the four surviving candidates, which was conducted in a more civil tone than prior debates.[109]

On March 12, the Guam caucuses endorsed eight uncommitted delegates and one unbound Cruz-supporting delegate.[110] Rubio won in Washington, DC, and a majority of the pledged delegates at the Wyoming convention went to Cruz.

March 5–12 results[11]
Candidate Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Uncom.
Delegates won 129 139 57 36 20[a]
Popular vote 978,827
(37.2%)
816,498
(31.0%)
295,117
(11.2%)
438,366
(16.7%)
23,570
(0.9%)
States won 5 4 0+PR+DC 0 0+VI+GU
Kansas 23% 48% 17% 11% 0.3%
Kentucky 36% 32% 16% 14% 0.2%
Louisiana 41% 38% 11% 6%
Maine 33% 46% 8% 12%
Puerto Rico 13% 9% 71% 1%
Hawaii 42% 33% 13% 11%
Idaho 28% 45% 16% 7%
Michigan 37% 25% 9% 24% 2%
Mississippi 47% 36% 5% 9%
Virgin Islands* 6% 12% 10% 65%
Guam 0 1 0 0 8
Washington D.C. 14% 12% 37% 36%
Wyoming[b] 7% 66% 20% 0% 7%

* Virgin Islands results do not take account of the later disqualification of delegates. Accounting for the disqualified delegates, the results were as follows: Uncommitted 36%, Cruz 22%, Rubio 18%, Carson 12%, Trump 12%.
Delegate totals are given in Guam as no tally of the popular vote has been released and one delegate was elected by acclamation.

March 15, 2016: Super Tuesday II[edit]

March 15 featured winner-take-all primaries in the delegate-rich states of Florida (Rubio's home state) and Ohio (Kasich's home state). There also were contests in Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and the Northern Mariana Islands, totaling 367 delegates. It was widely seen as a very important day in the presidential race because of the large number of winner-take-all delegates at stake. In the days leading up to Florida, the remaining candidates announced prominent endorsements, and Trump and Rubio in particular spent millions on television advertisements assailing the other in Florida. The level of protest and violence at Trump rallies became an object of criticism by other candidates; one such incident led to the cancellation of a Trump event in Chicago on March 13.[111]

The Northern Mariana Islands caucuses were the first contest to close on March 15, with Trump taking 73% of the vote and collecting all nine of the territory's delegates.[112]

In Florida, Trump netted the biggest prize of the night, handily defeating Rubio in his home state.[113] Trump added to that wins in North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri. Soon after the announcement of his loss in Florida, Rubio suspended his campaign. Kasich got on the board for the first time, winning his home state of Ohio to stave off elimination. Kasich's victory in Ohio meant that the election became the first Republican primary since 1968 in which more than three candidates won at least one state. The election in Missouri was very close, with Trump beating Cruz by fewer than 1,800 votes (0.2%).[114][115]

March 15 results
Candidate Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio
Delegates won 229 51 81 6
Popular vote 3,204,832
(40.5%)
1,905,648
(24.1%)
1,636,401
(20.7%)
967,393
(12.2%)
States won 4+NMP 0 1 0
Florida 46% 17% 7% 27%
Illinois 39% 30% 20% 8%
Missouri 41% 41% 10% 6%
North Carolina 40% 36% 12% 8%
N. Mariana Islands 73% 24% 2% 1%
Ohio 36% 13% 47% 3%

Late March – mid-April 2016[edit]

Trump speaks at Fountain Park in Fountain Hills, Arizona.

There are six states and one territory voting between March 22 and April 19, totaling 326 delegates with New York the largest (winner-take-most, 95) and Arizona (winner-take-all, 58). Wisconsin has 42 delegate votes and is said to be a 'bellwether' state.[116]

The final debate between the candidates, which had been scheduled to take place on March 21 in Salt Lake City, was cancelled after Trump and Kasich withdrew from the event. Trump had initially announced that he would be absent as there had been enough debates; Kasich subsequently stated that he would not attend a debate without Trump.[117]

With concerns about the border, immigration, and national security at the fore on March 22, Trump won all 58 delegates in winner-take-all Arizona. However, in Utah, Cruz garnered 69% of the vote, triggering the 50% rule to take all 40 delegates, buoyed by anti-Trump sentiment among many Mormons. Both Trump and Cruz received some of American Samoa's nine delegates; the remainder were uncommitted.[118] American Samoa and Utah were the last caucuses of the 2016 primary season.

As a Trump nomination became more likely, the Club for Growth and other backers of the Stop Trump movement began adopting increasingly drastic strategies to derail his nomination, including all-out opposition to him in Wisconsin.[119] Trump stated that he foresaw the outbreak of riots if he were denied the nomination at the Convention.[120] Despite often being viewed as an anathema to the establishment, Cruz began picking up endorsements of establishment figures dismayed by the prospect of a Trump nomination, including that of Mitt Romney just before the Utah vote, and of Jeb Bush on March 23.

March 22 – April 19 results
Candidate Trump Cruz Kasich Uncom.
Delegates won 58 40 0 9
Popular vote 274,774
(38.8%)
254,706
(36.0%)
82,825
(11.7%)
0
States won 1 1 0 0+AS
American Samoa* 0 0 0 9
Arizona 47% 25% 10%
Utah 14% 69% 17%
North Dakota TBD TBD TBD
Wisconsin TBD TBD TBD
Colorado TBD TBD TBD
New York TBD TBD TBD

* The delegate count is given for American Samoa.

Campaign finance[edit]

This is an overview of the money used in the campaign as it was reported to Federal Election Committee and released on March 7, 2016. Outside groups are independent expenditure-only committees, also called PACs and SuperPACs. Several such groups normally support each candidate but the numbers in the table are a total of all of them, meaning that a group of committees can be shown as technically insolvent (shown in red) even though it is not the case for all of them. The Campaign Committees debt are shown in red if the campaign is technically insolvent. The source of all the numbers is the Center for Responsive Politics.[121] Jim Gilmore's information is currently unavailable.

Candidate Campaign committee (as of January 31) Outside groups (as of March 7) Total spent Suspended
campaign
Money raised Money spent Cash on hand Debt Money raised Money spent Cash on hand
Donald Trump $25,526,319 $23,941,598 $1,584,721 $17,534,058* $1,894,509 $1,823,720 $70,789 $25,765,318 Active
Ted Cruz $54,661,506 $41,016,086 $13,645,419 $0 $46,726,605 $21,280,797 $25,445,808 $62,296,883 Active
John Kasich $8,648,890 $7,172,247 $1,476,642 $0 $6,729,311 $10,958,007 $-4,228,696 $18,130,254 Active
Marco Rubio $34,652,654 $32,935,702 $5,055,407 $98,000 $34,313,903 $28,334,553 $5,979,350 $61,270,255 March 15
Ben Carson $57,860,505 $53,713,834 $4,146,671 $0 $13,807,549 $13,990,168 $-182,619 $67,704,002 March 4
Jeb Bush $33,512,524 $30,632,058 $2,880,466 $59,136 $118,740,817 $94,262,809 $24,478,008 $124,894,867 February 20
Chris Christie $7,995,895 $7,254,221 $741,674 $72,579 $23,156,157 $21,849,465 $1,306,692 $29,103,686 February 10
Carly Fiorina $11,848,450 $8,490,693 $3,357,757 $0 $14,184,857 $11,768,162 $2,416,695 $20,258,855 February 10
Rick Santorum $1,426,163 $1,403,380 $41,966 $899,356 $642,416 $1,032,603 $-390,187 $2,435,983 February 3
Rand Paul $12,158,052 $11,303,910 $854,142 $292,311 $10,591,125 $8,160,980 $2,430,145 $19,459,775 February 3
Mike Huckabee $4,114,116 $4,075,073 $39,044 $55,384 $5,862,475 $5,820,362 $42,114 $9,895,434 February 1
George Pataki $544,183 $524,850 $19,332 $20,000* $1,547,674 $1,547,674 $0 $2,072,524 December 29
Lindsey Graham $5,629,463 $5,329,046 $300,417 $57,041 $4,388,304 $4,279,062 $109,242 $9,608,108 December 21
Bobby Jindal $1,442,464 $1,442,464 $0 $0 $4,517,207 $4,517,874 $-666 $5,960,337 November 17
Scott Walker $8,076,155 $7,996,958 $79,197 $1,078,876 $24,436,318 $24,393,632 $42,686 $32,390,590 September 21
Rick Perry $1,427,133 $1,766,819 $2,403 $0 $15,231,068 $15,356,117 $-125,050 $17,122,936 September 11
Active campaigns highlighted

Notes

*This is mainly a personal loan from the candidate to the campaign as part of the candidate's self-financing, (Donald Trump and George Pataki).

Schedule and process[edit]

U.S. states by the total number of delegates (Republican Party).
U.S. states (and territories) by election methods, 2016. (Utah is actually a caucus, needs color fix. Montana is also wrong it is a primary not a caucus. Also Missouri was a primary and not a caucus.)
Delegate Allocation Rules by State and Territory (Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016)
Schedule of primary elections, by month and/or date

The Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses are indirect elections in which voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention. These delegates in turn directly elect the Republican Party's presidential nominee. Depending on each state's law and each state's party rules, when voters cast ballots for a candidate, they may be voting to directly award delegates bound to vote for a particular candidate at the state or national convention (binding primary or caucus), or they may simply be expressing an opinion that the state party is not bound to follow in selecting delegates to the national convention (non-binding primary or caucus).

Under the party's delegate selection rules, the number of pledged delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states is 10, plus three delegates for each congressional district. For the District of Columbia and the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands, fixed numbers of pledged delegates are allocated. Each state and U.S territory will be awarded bonus pledged delegates based on whether it has a Republican governor, it has Republican majorities in one or all chambers of its state legislature, and whether it has Republican majorities in its delegation to the U.S. Congress, among other factors.[122][123]

The Republican National Committee imposed strict new rules for states wishing to hold early contests in 2016.[124] Under these rules, no state was permitted to hold a primary or caucus in January; only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada were entitled to February contests. States with primaries or caucuses in early March were to award their delegates proportionally. Any state that might have violated these rules was to have their delegation to the 2016 convention severely cut: states with more than 30 delegates would have been deprived of all but nine, plus RNC members from that state; states with fewer than 30 will would have been reduced to six, plus RNC members.[124] In contrast to the 2012 cycle no states violated these rules.

The primary election table below shows how and when the National Convention delegates are allocated and elected.

  • Date: The date given in the first column is the date of the popular primary or caucus in a particular state or territory. This event may or may not allocate delegates. Two more dates are also important in the process: the date on which Congressional District delegates are (s)elected, and the date on which state delegates are (s)elected. Some events stretch for more than one day; in these cases the date stated in the table is the final day of the event.
  • State delegation: Each delegation is made up of up to three kinds of delegates: party members, delegates from the congressional districts and delegates from the state at-large. They can either be bound, meaning that they are legally bound to vote for a particular candidate in the first ballot at the National Convention, or they can be unbound, meaning that they are free to vote for any candidate at the National Convention. Bound delegates' voting obligations will not necessarily be in line with their own personal views, and thus cannot always be used as an indicator as to how a certain delegate will vote should there be more than one ballot at the Convention. If a candidate suspends his campaign, the delegates allocated and/or elected to him may become unbound depending on state rules. The Iowa delegation is one exception, as Iowa delegates are still bound on the first ballot to candidates that have suspended their campaigns as long as there remains more than one candidate for the nomination on the first ballot.
  • Allocation: Delegates can either be allocated or unallocated at the starting primary or caucuses. The contests that allocate delegates on state and district levels use the following allocating systems:
    • Winner-take-all. The candidate receiving the most votes is allocated all the delegates.
    • Winner-take-most. This is a hybrid of winner-take-all and proportional. The delegates are allocated proportionally but different rules ensure that only the leading candidates take part in the allocation. If a candidate gets more than 50% of the votes he will be allocated all the delegates. To ensure all delegates are allocated to the leading candidates, high thresholds are in place in winner-take-most primaries or caucuses. Other rules beside these two are used to ensure the result in some states.
    • Proportional. All candidates receive delegates in accordance with the popular vote at the primary or caucuses.
    • Direct election. Instead of voting for a candidate at the primary or caucuses the voters elect the delegates directly. The delegates can state their presidential preference (and be elected on a particular candidate's "ticket") or they can be elected as uncommitted.
  • Election: Delegates are elected before, at the same time or after the starting event depending on the allocation method and the state rules.
    • Convention. This including Congressional District Conventions, Congressional District Caucuses at State Conventions, Summer Meetings, State and CD delegation selection meetings and State Conventions where delegates are elected. Conventions where National Delegates are not (s)elected have not been included in the tablet.
    • Direct election. The National Convention delegates are elected directly on the ballot. They will either be bound, as a delegation, to the result of the contest or they will individually state on the ballot what candidate they will be bound to or if they wish to be elected as unbound delegates depending.
    • Slate. A slate can be made up in three ways: all candidates submitting a slate before the primary or caucuses, the winning candidate submitting their slate after the primary or caucuses, or the State Committee or Convention making up the slates before the primary or caucuses. The allocated delegates are then selected from these slates.
    • Committee. Each state has its own rules and regulations. Ordinarily, the state GOP executive committee or its chairman selects the delegates.

Primary schedule[edit]

Date State State delegation (only voting delegates) Allocation Election (CD) Election (AL) Threshold
RNC AL CD Total U B Contest AL CD Date Type Date Type
Feb 1 Iowa 3 15 12 30 0 30[c] Caucus (closed) Proportional Proportional[d] Apr 9 Convention May 21 Convention N/A
Feb 9 New Hampshire 3 20 0 23 3[e] 20 Primary (semi-closed) Proportional N/A N/A N/A Feb 9 Slate 10%
Feb 20 South Carolina 3 26 21 50 0 50 Primary (open) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all April Convention May 7 Convention N/A
Feb 23 Nevada 3 27 0 30 2[e] 28 Caucus (closed) Proportional N/A N/A N/A May 7 Convention 3.33%
Mar 1 Alabama 3 26 21 50 0 50 Primary (open) Winner-take-most Winner-take-most Mar 1 Slate Mar 1 Slate 20%
Alaska 3 25 0 28 0 28 Caucus (closed) Proportional N/A N/A N/A Apr 28 Convention 13%
Arkansas 3 25 12 40 0 40 Primary (open) Winner-take-most Winner-take-most Apr 30 Convention May 14 Committee 15%
Colorado[f] 3 13 21 37 0 37 Caucus (closed) (No allocation) (No allocation) Apr 8 Convention[g] Apr 9 Convention[g] N/A
Georgia 3 31 42 76 0 76 Primary (semi-closed) Winner-take-most Winner-take-most Apr 16 Convention June 3 Convention 20%
Massachusetts 3 12 27 42 0 42 Primary (semi-closed) Proportional Proportional[d] Apr 23 Convention June 3 Committee 5%
Minnesota 3 11 24 38 0 38 Caucus (open) Proportional Proportional May 7 Convention May 21 Convention 10%
North Dakota[h] 3 25 0 28 28 0 Caucus (closed) (No allocation) N/A N/A N/A Apr 3 Convention N/A
Oklahoma 3 25 15 43 2 41 Primary (closed) Winner-take-most Winner-take-most Apr 16 Convention May 14 Convention 15%
Tennessee 3 28 27 58 0 58 Primary (open) Winner-take-most Winner-take-most Mar 1 Direct Elec. Apr 2 Direct Elec.[i] 20%
Texas 3 44 108 155 0 155 Primary (open) Winner-take-most Winner-take-most May 14 Convention May 14 Convention 20%
Vermont 3 13 0 16 0 16 Primary (open) Winner-take-most N/A N/A N/A May 21 Convention 20%
Virginia 3 13 33 49 3[e] 46 Primary (open) Proportional Proportional[d] May 21 Convention Apr 30 Convention N/A
Wyoming 3 14 12 29 3 26 Caucus (closed) (No allocation) (No allocation) Mar 12 Convention[g][j] Apr 16 Convention[g] N/A
Mar 5 Kansas 3[k] 25 12 40 0 40 Caucus (closed) Proportional Proportional Apr 23 Convention May 21 Committee 10%
Kentucky 3 25 18 46 0 46 Caucus (closed) Proportional Proportional[d] May 17 Convention May 18 Convention 5%
Louisiana 3 25 18 46 5[l] 41 Primary (closed) Proportional Proportional Mar 12 Convention Mar 12 Convention 20%
Maine 3 14 6 23 0 23 Caucus (closed) Winner-take-most Winner-take-most[d] Apr 22 Convention Apr 22 Convention 10%
Mar 6 Puerto Rico 3 20 0 23 0 23 Primary (open) Winner-take-most N/A N/A N/A Mar 6 Direct Elec. 20%
Mar 8 Hawaii 3 10 6 19 0 19 Caucus (closed) Proportional Proportional Mar 8 Slate Mar 8 Slate N/A
Idaho 3 29 0 32 0 32 Primary (closed) Winner-take-most N/A N/A N/A Jun 4 Convention 20%
Michigan 3 14 42 59 0 59 Primary (open) Winner-take-most N/A Apr 8 Convention Apr 9 Convention 15%
Mississippi 3 25 12 40 0 40 Primary (open) Proportional Winner-take-most May 14 Convention May 14 Convention 15%
Mar 10 U.S. Virgin Islands 3 6 0 9 9[m] 0 Caucus (closed) Direct Elec.[g] N/A N/A N/A Mar 10 Convention N/A
Mar 12 Washington, D.C. 3 16 0 19 0 19 Caucus (closed) Winner-take-most N/A N/A N/A Mar 12 Convention 15%
Guam 3 6 0 9 8[n] 1 Caucus (closed) (No allocation) N/A N/A N/A Mar 12 Convention N/A
Mar 15 Florida 0 18 81 99 0 99 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all[d] Jun 3 Convention Jun 3 Committee N/A
Illinois 3[k] 12 54 69 0 69 Primary (open) Winner-take-all Direct Elec.[g] N/A N/A May 22 Convention N/A
Missouri 3 9 40[o] 52 3 49 Primary (open) Winner-take-all Proportional Apr 30 Convention Jun 2 Convention N/A
Northern Mariana Islands 3 6 0 9 0 9 Caucus (closed) Winner-take-all N/A N/A N/A Mar 15 Direct Elect. N/A
North Carolina 3 69 0 72 3 69 Primary (semi-closed) Proportional Proportional[d] Apr 31 Convention May 8 Convention N/A
Ohio 3 63 0 66 3 63 Primary (semi-closed) Winner-take-all N/A N/A N/A Mar 15 Slate N/A
Mar 22 American Samoa 3 6 0 9 9 0 Caucus (open) (No allocation) N/A N/A N/A Mar 22 Convention N/A
Arizona 3 28 27 58 0 58 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all[d] Apr 30 Convention Apr 30 Convention N/A
Utah 3 37 0 40 0 40 Caucus (semi-closed) Winner-take-most N/A N/A N/A Apr 23 Convention 15%[p]
Apr 5 Wisconsin 3 15 24 42 0 42 Primary (open) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Apr 17 Slate May 14 Slate N/A
Apr 19 New York 3 11 81 95 0 95 Primary (closed) Winner-take-most Winner-take-most Apr 19 Slate May 26 Committee 20%
Apr 26 Connecticut 3 10 15 28 3 25 Primary (closed) Winner-take-most Winner-take-all May 20 Slate May 20 Slate 20%
Delaware 3 13 0 16 0 16 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all N/A N/A N/A Apr 26 Convention N/A
Maryland 3 11 24 38 0 38 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Apr 19 Direct Elec. May 14 Convention N/A
Pennsylvania 3 14 54 71 54 17 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all (No allocation) Apr 19 Direct Elec. May 21 Committee N/A
Rhode Island 3 10 6 19 0 19 Primary (semi-closed) Proportional Proportional Apr 26 Direct Elec. Apr 26 Direct Elec. 10%
May 3 Indiana 3 27 27 57 0 57 Primary (open) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all May 3 Slate May 3 Slate N/A
May 10 Nebraska 3 24 9 36 3 33 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all[d] May 14 Convention May 14 Convention N/A
West Virginia 3 22 9 34 0 34 Primary (semi-closed) Direct Elec.[g] Direct Elec.[g] May 10 Direct Elec. May 10 Direct Elec. N/A
May 17 Oregon 3 10 15 28 3 25 Primary (closed) Proportional Proportional Jun 4 Convention Jun 4 Convention 3.57%
May 24 Washington 3 11 30 44 0 44 Primary (closed) Proportional Winner-take-most May 24 Slate May 24 Slate 20%
June 7 California 3 10 159 172 0 172 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all Jun 7 Slate Jun 7 Slate N/A
Montana 3 24 0 27 0 27 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all N/A N/A N/A May 14 Slate N/A
New Jersey 3 48 0 51 0 51 Primary (semi-closed) Winner-take-all N/A N/A N/A Jun 5 Slate N/A
New Mexico 3 12 9 24 0 24 Primary (closed) Proportional Proportional[d] May 21 Convention May 21 Convention 15%
South Dakota 3 26 0 29 0 29 Primary (closed) Winner-take-all N/A N/A N/A Mar 19 Convention N/A
Completed races light grey, upcoming races dark grey

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ^ 5 uncommitted delegates were allocated from Louisiana, 5 from the Virgin Islands, 9 from Guam, 1 from Wyoming
  2. ^ County conventions electing 12 of Wyoming's 29 delegates.
  3. ^ Iowa's delegates are bound for the first ballot to the candidates of their allocation even if the candidates have suspended their campaigns. This applies to eight delegates allocated to Bush, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Paul. If only one candidate is put forward for nomination at the National Convention Iowa's delegates are bound to vote for that candidate providing he received votes in caucuses
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Delegates are allocated in each Congregational District based on the statewide result - Not based on the result in the District - but they are elected at the District Conventions.
  5. ^ a b c Delegates bound to a candidate that later suspends his campaigns become unbound in some states. This applies to three delegates from New Hampshire elected on the Bush slate, two delegates from Nevada allocated to Carson and three delegates from Virginia allocated to Carson
  6. ^ Precinct caucuses were held in Colorado on March 1, but the choice of delegates to County Assemblies and District Conventions is not related in any way to presidential preferences.
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h Delegates indicate on the ballot what candidate they wish to be bound to or if they wish to be elected as unbound.
  8. ^ North Dakota does not have any sort of presidential caucus or straw poll. Its legislative district caucuses are conducted from January 1 to March 1.
  9. ^ Tennessee: half of its at-large delegates will be elected by the State Executive Committee in accordance with the binding primary result
  10. ^ Wyoming has only one congressional district, so the 12 CD delegates are elected in the 23 counties that are paired together.
  11. ^ a b All RNC delegates are bound to the candidate receiving most votes statewide.
  12. ^ Five At-Large delegates are not allocated to any candidate according to the threshold rules
  13. ^ Six uncommitted At-Large delegates were elected and three RNC members are unpledged
  14. ^ Five uncommitted At-Large delegates were elected and three RNC members are unpledged
  15. ^ 16 delegates allocated in CD will be elected as at-large delegates at the state convention
  16. ^ Utah: The threshold will only be activated if three or more candidates pass it.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Linshi, Jack. "More People Are Running for Presidential Nomination Than Ever". Time. Retrieved February 14, 2016. 
  2. ^ Gabriel, Trip (2016-03-02). "Ben Carson, Seeing No ‘Path Forward,’ Signals End to Candidacy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-03-09. 
  3. ^ "Ben Carson Suspends 2016 Campaign at CPAC". NBC News. Retrieved 2016-03-09. 
  4. ^ Peters, Jeremy; Barbaro, Michael (16 March 2016). "Marco Rubio Suspends His Presidential Campaign". Retrieved 16 March 2016. 
  5. ^ a b "The rules of the Republican Party" (PDF). RNC. Retrieved March 5, 2016. 
  6. ^ "GOP superlawyer on contested convention rule: 'In fact, that's not a rule'". POLITICO. 
  7. ^ "Why Rule 40 Won't Affect the GOP Primary Outcome". RealClear Politics. 
  8. ^ "The Real Import of Rule 40 in 2016". FrontLoading HQ. 
  9. ^ "Dramatic, Little Known GOP Rule Change Takes Choice Of Presidential Candidate Away From Rank And File Republicans And Hands It To Party Elite". Forbes. 
  10. ^ "RNC weighs scrapping convention rule book to head off anti-Trump maneuvers". Washington Times. 
  11. ^ a b c "Republican Convention". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 18, 2016. 
  12. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (January 14, 2014) "GOP convention set for July 18-21 in 2016", Politico. Retrieved January 15, 2015.
  13. ^ Hamby, Peter (December 11, 2013). "First on CNN: Republicans moving to overhaul 2016 primary process". CNN. Retrieved January 11, 2014. 
  14. ^ Hamby, Peter (January 24, 2014). "GOP adopts changes to 2016 presidential primary process". CNN. Retrieved February 24, 2014. 
  15. ^ Alex Isenstadt (July 21, 2015). "John Kasich announces his presidential run". Politico. 
  16. ^ Tau, Byron (July 29, 2015). "Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore Enters Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved August 18, 2015. 
  17. ^ Steve Benen (May 5, 2015). "Biggest. Field. Ever.". MSNBC. 
  18. ^ Aaron Blake (June 15, 2015). "The 2016 GOP primary is basically the most wide-open race ever*". The Washington Post. 
  19. ^ DelReal, Jose A. (December 16, 2014) "Jeb Bush forms PAC to explore presidential run", The Washington Post. Retrieved December 17, 2014.
  20. ^ Mascaro, Lisa and David Lauter (March 22, 2015). "Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz Launches Presidential Bid". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved March 23, 2015. 
  21. ^ Zezima, Katie (March 23, 2015). "Ted Cruz Announces He’s Running for President". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 23, 2015. 
  22. ^ Philip Bump (March 25, 2015). "The 2016 GOP presidential race, broken down into 5 ‘lanes’". The Washington Post. 
  23. ^ Alexandra Jaffe, CNN (December 29, 2014). "The GOP's 2016 problem". CNN. 
  24. ^ "Which Republican is winning the 2016 conservative primary?". Washington Examiner. 
  25. ^ Philip Bump (May 4, 2015). "The 2016 Republican field might be the most diverse ever — for either party". The Washington Post. 
  26. ^ Halimah Abdullah, CNN (February 6, 2014). "2016: A more diverse slate of GOP hopefuls?". CNN. 
  27. ^ "Aldo Santorum's Obituary on The Island Packet". The Island Packet. Retrieved January 30, 2016. 
  28. ^ "Scottish Genealogy Scottish Family Tree History Research Genealogists: Donald Trump". scottishroots.com. Retrieved January 30, 2016. 
  29. ^ "Rubio's popularity makes him the conservative frontrunner in 2016". Reason. 
  30. ^ "Poll: Marco Rubio 2016 Presidential Frontrunner". Business Insider. 
  31. ^ "Marco Rubio: Forgotten Frontrunner". Cook Political Report. 
  32. ^ "Krauthammer: Christie 'Far and Away' 2016 GOP Frontrunner". Newsmax. 
  33. ^ "Chris Christie's frontrunner status is an asset, not a hindrance". IB Times. 
  34. ^ "Christie now frontrunner for 2016". New York Post. 
  35. ^ "Chris Christie's Access Lanes to the GOP Nomination are Closed". Five Thirty Eight. 
  36. ^ "Christie blames N.J. Dems, 'liberal media' for his weak 2016 polls". The Star-Ledger. 
  37. ^ a b c "2016 National Republican Primary – Polls – HuffPost Pollster". The Huffington Post. 
  38. ^ a b "2016 Republican Presidential Nomination". Retrieved September 20, 2015. 
  39. ^ Rucker, Philip; Costa, Robert (April 6, 2014). "In the ‘credentials caucus,’ GOP’s 2016 hopefuls study policy and seek advisers". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 6, 2014. 
  40. ^ "Pols and polls say the same thing: Jeb Bush is a weak frontrunner". Five Thirty Eight. 
  41. ^ "Why Jeb Bush would be the frontrunner in 2016". Business Insider. 
  42. ^ Hartmann, Margaret (August 5, 2015). "Is Jeb Bush the Mitt Romney of 2016?". New York. 
  43. ^ Sappenfield, Mark (April 19, 2015). "Jeb Bush: Is he 2016's Mitt Romney?". The Christian Science Monitor. 
  44. ^ "For Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, a history of ambition fuels a possible 2016 collision". The Washington Post. 
  45. ^ "Romney out: A boost for Jeb Bush and who else?". The Washington Post. 
  46. ^ "2016 Power Index: An Unsteady Walker is Still Jeb's Top Rival". Fox News Channel. 
  47. ^ "Donald Trump comments spark poll surge, puts 2016 Republican hopefuls on the spot". The Washington Times. 
  48. ^ Colin Campbell (July 9, 2015).Donald Trump has surged to the top of 2 new 2016 polls. Business Insider.
  49. ^ "Ben Carson: Rise of the anti-Trump". CNN. 
  50. ^ Bump, Philip (September 15, 2015). "Is Ben Carson the next Donald Trump?". The Washington Post. 
  51. ^ Axelson, Ben (September 21, 2015). "Poll: Carly Fiorina surges to second place behind Donald Trump after GOP debates". The Post-Standard. 
  52. ^ "Rise of the Outsiders". Politico. August 19, 2015. 
  53. ^ "The rise of the political outsiders in the 2016 race". Fox Business. 
  54. ^ Singleton, Shermichael (September 4, 2015). "The rise of the political outsiders". The Hill. Retrieved September 24, 2015. 
  55. ^ Schleifer, Theodore (September 11, 2015). "Rick Perry Drops out of Presidential Race". CNN. Retrieved September 21, 2015. 
  56. ^ Condon, Stephanie (September 11, 2015). "Rick Perry Drops out of 2016 Presidential Race". CBS News. Retrieved September 21, 2015. 
  57. ^ O'Connor, Patrick; Epstein, Reid J. "Scott Walker Drops out of 2016 Presidential Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 21, 2015. 
  58. ^ "GOP Field Narrows to Top 6". The Huffington Post. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  59. ^ "Which GOP candidates should be the final 6?". Fox News Video. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  60. ^ "Here’s How the GOP Race Looks Now". Rasmussen Reports. November 13, 2015. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  61. ^ "Winners and losers from the 3rd Republican presidential debate". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  62. ^ "Who Won the Third Republican Presidential Debate?". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  63. ^ "2016 Republican Presidential Nomination". Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  64. ^ "2016 Republican Presidential Nomination". 270towin.com. Retrieved December 5, 2015. 
  65. ^ "2016 Election Center". CNN. 
  66. ^ a b "The Final Four of the GOP Presidential Election". The Conservative Review. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  67. ^ "Rubio’s momentum picks up with increased donor support, endorsements". Fox News Channel. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  68. ^ "Ted Cruz’s audacious plan to win the GOP nomination". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  69. ^ "Poll: Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz rising". Washington Examiner. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  70. ^ Struyk, Ryan (November 17, 2015). "Republican Bobby Jindal Drops Out of Presidential Race". ABC News. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  71. ^ "Paris massacre could alter the 2016 presidential race in this country". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  72. ^ "Paris and the U.S. Presidential Election". Bloomberg View. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  73. ^ "Paris Attacks Could Mark Turning Point in Republican Race". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  74. ^ "Poll: Carson collapses, Rubio surges in N.H.". Washington Examiner. Retrieved November 23, 2015. 
  75. ^ "Trump Leads National GOP Horserace, Cruz Surges Into 2nd Place". NBC News. Retrieved December 13, 2015. 
  76. ^ Donovan Slack. "Report: Pataki drops out of presidential race". USA Today. 
  77. ^ Lee, MJ (January 15, 2016). "GOP debate: Trump-Cruz 'bromance' is over". CNN. 
  78. ^ Newell, Jim (January 7, 2016). "Does Ted Cruz Have a "Birther" Problem?". 
  79. ^ Garrett, Major (January 7, 2016). "Ted Cruz hits back at Donald Trump over citizenship". CBS News. 
  80. ^ Campbell, Colin (January 12, 2016). "TED CRUZ: Polls show Donald Trump 'loses to Hillary — and loses by a pretty big margin'". 
  81. ^ "NBC_WSJ January Poll". January 15, 2016. 
  82. ^ Lisa Desjardins (January 22, 2016). "In both parties, 2016 front-runners go on the attack". PBS NewsHour. 
  83. ^ Salant, Jonathan (January 4, 2016). "Christie's N.H. surge improves his presidential chances, report says". 
  84. ^ Seth McLaughlin (January 24, 2016). "John Kasich's Poll Surge in New Hampshire Alarms Social Conservatives". The Washington Times. 
  85. ^ Ron Elving (January 29, 2016). "Trump-less Debate Sets A New Standard, But With A Familiar Outcome". NPR. 
  86. ^ Nate Silver (January 29, 2016). "What Would The Republican Race Look Like Without Trump?". FiveThirtyEight.com. 
  87. ^ "2016 Election Center: Iowa". CNN. Retrieved February 1, 2016. 
  88. ^ Andrew Rafferty (February 1, 2016). "Mike Huckabee Suspends Presidential Campaign". NBC News. Retrieved February 1, 2016. 
  89. ^ Laurie Kellman and Meg Kinnard (February 3, 2016). "Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul quits 2016 GOP presidential race". Associated Press. 
  90. ^ Daniel Strauss (February 3, 2016). "Santorum drops out, endorses Rubio". Politico. Retrieved February 3, 2016. 
  91. ^ Danielle Kurtzleben (February 6, 2016). "Republican Debate: 5 Things You Missed". NPR. 
  92. ^ "Carly Fiorina Suspends 2016 Presidential Campaign". ABC News. Retrieved February 10, 2016. 
  93. ^ Everett Rosenfeld (February 10, 2016). "Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie drop out of race". CNBC. Retrieved February 10, 2016. 
  94. ^ Domenico Montanaro (February 10, 2016). "Why A Vote For An Establishment Candidate Could Be A Vote For Trump In N.H.". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2016. 
  95. ^ "Jim Gilmore suspends campaign". Politico. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 12, 2016. 
  96. ^ "Trump wins big in SC primary as Bush bows out; Clinton edges Sanders in Nevada". Fox News Channel. February 21, 2016. 
  97. ^ "2016 election center: South Carolina". CNN. February 21, 2016. Retrieved February 21, 2016. 
  98. ^ "Jeb Bush ends presidential bid after Donald Trump wins in South Carolina". The Guardian. February 21, 2016. Retrieved February 22, 2016. 
  99. ^ "Nevada Caucus Election Results 2016". The New York Times. 2016. Retrieved February 25, 2016. 
  100. ^ Robert Costa and Ben Terris (March 2, 2016). "Ben Carson tells supporters he sees no ‘path forward’ for presidential campaign". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 2, 2016. 
  101. ^ "Ben Carson Ends Presidential Campaign". NPR. March 4, 2016. Retrieved March 4, 2016. 
  102. ^ "Carson suspends presidential campaign". FoxNews. March 4, 2016. 
  103. ^ Costa, Robert (March 10, 2016). "Ben Carson plans to endorse Trump". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 11, 2016. 
  104. ^ Doina Chiacu and Megan Cassella (March 4, 2016). "Republicans in tailspin, group forms to draft Ryan for U.S. president". Reuters. Retrieved March 5, 2016. 
  105. ^ Nathaniel Downes (March 4, 2016). "Before Loudly Denouncing Trump, Romney Quietly Reactivated Campaign Committees (VIDEO)". ReverbPress. Retrieved March 5, 2016. 
  106. ^ Republican Party of Puerto Rico Presidential Primaries Puerto Rico Republican Party 6 March 2016
  107. ^ Neidig, Harper (March 5, 2016). "Poll: Kasich pulls ahead of Trump in Michigan". "Ballot Box", The Hill. Retrieved March 10, 2016. 
  108. ^ Cheney, Kyle (March 22, 2016). "Cruz, Trump score new delegates in Virgin Islands shakeup". Politico. Retrieved March 22, 2016. 
  109. ^ Eyder Peralta (March 10, 2016). "The 12th Republican Debate In 100 Words (And 4 Videos)". NPR. Retrieved March 11, 2016. 
  110. ^ Yoon, Robert (March 12, 2016). "Clinton wins first N. Marianas caucuses; one Guam GOP delegate favors Cruz". CNN. Retrieved March 12, 2016. 
  111. ^ "Trump says of campaign protesters: 'I don't hear their voice'". Reuters. March 13, 2016. 
  112. ^ Epstein, Reid J. (March 15, 2016). "Donald Trump Wins Northern Mariana Islands GOP Caucus". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved March 15, 2016. 
  113. ^ "CNN Election Center: Florida". CNN. 
  114. ^ "Missouri Primary Results". The New York Times. March 17, 2016. 
  115. ^ "Clinton, Trump Win Missouri Primary". KQTV. 
  116. ^ "Largest 6 GOP states vs largest 6 Dem states". US Election Atlas. March 17, 2016. 
  117. ^ "GOP debate in Utah cancelled after Trump, Kasich skip". PBS. March 16, 2016. Retrieved March 16, 2016. 
  118. ^ "Tuesday Caucus And Primary Live Updates 2016: Results From Arizona, Utah, Idaho And American Samoa". IBTimes. March 23, 2016. 
  119. ^ Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin (March 19, 2016). "Politics: Republican Leaders Map a Strategy to Derail Donald Trump". New York Times. Retrieved March 20, 2016. 
  120. ^ Scott, Eugene (March 17, 2016). "Donald Trump on brokered convention: 'I think you'd have riots'". CNN. Retrieved March 24, 2016. 
  121. ^ "2016 Presidential Race". OpenSecrets.org - Center for Responsive Politics. Retrieved March 11, 2016. 
  122. ^ "Republican Detailed Delegate Allocation – 2016". The Green Papers. Retrieved September 14, 2015. 
  123. ^ Wasserman, David (January 19, 2016). "Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz". Fivethirtyeight. Retrieved January 19, 2016. 
  124. ^ a b Joseph, Cameron. "RNC tightens 2016 primary calendar, rules." The Hill. January 24, 2014. Retrieved June 11, 2015.

External links[edit]