Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
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2016 U.S. presidential election |
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The 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries will take place within the United States Republican Party (GOP) prior to the 2016 general election. In anticipation of the primaries, the Republican National Committee (RNC) began polling email subscribers in January 2014 as to their choice for the nomination among 32 potential nominees, telling its supporters, "The battle for the White House has already begun."[1]
Contents
Background[edit]
2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney lost the election to incumbent President Barack Obama. Fearing a long, drawn-out primary season could hurt the 2016 nominee like it may have hurt Romney, the RNC has drafted plans to condense the season, with plans for the 2016 Republican National Convention to be held in July[2] of the election year, the earliest since Republicans nominated Thomas Dewey in June 1948.[3][4] By comparison, the 2012 Republican National Convention was held August 27–30.
In April 2014, Robert Costa and Philip Rucker of The Washington Post reported that the period of networking and relationship-building that they dubbed the "credentials caucus" had begun, with prospective candidates "quietly study[ing] up on issues and cultivat[ing] ties to pundits and luminaries from previous administrations."[5]
In the lead-up to the GOP's 2016 primaries, the contest has widely been viewed as one of the most open presidential primary contests in American history, both with no clear frontrunner for the nomination, as well as a field potentially as high as 20 or more candidates. With Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's campaign announcement on July 13, 2015, the 2016 field matched the previous record of 15 candidates set by the 1948 primaries. With Ohio Governor John Kasich’s announcement on July 21, the field reached 16 candidates,[6] and thus officially became the largest presidential field in the history of the Republican Party, surpassing 1948. Lastly, with former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore's announcement on July 30,[7] the field reached 17 candidates, and thus became the largest presidential field in American history, surpassing the 16 candidates in the Democratic Party presidential primaries of both 1972 and 1976.[8][9]
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, who was widely seen as a possible frontrunner for the nomination due to his moderate stances, record as governor of a crucial swing state, name recognition, and access to high-paying donors, was the first candidate to form a political action committee (PAC) and exploratory committee, in mid-December 2014.[10] Many other candidates followed suit, and the first candidate to declare his candidacy was Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has strong appeal among grassroots conservatives, primarily due to his association with the Tea Party movement.[11][12] As with numerous past Republican primaries, the 2016 field is seen as divided between several different factions of the Republican Party, with the grassroots conservatives represented by Cruz and Dr. Ben Carson, the Christian right represented by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and the moderates, also known as "the establishment," represented by Bush and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, among others. In addition, some candidates are seen as having strong appeal among both conservatives and moderates, but may also risk criticisms from both sides as a result; these candidates include Walker, Kasich, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Two notable candidates from the previous primaries in 2012 returned for a second consecutive run in 2016: Santorum and former Texas Governor Rick Perry. Lastly, there is a surprisingly large presence of candidates with minimal to no political experience running for the presidency, including Carson, businessman Donald Trump, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who tout their lack of political experience as a positive while others criticize it as making them unqualified for the office.[13][14][15]
The field has also been repeatedly noted for its diversity, and has even been called the most diverse presidential field in American history. This includes two Latinos (Cruz and Rubio), a woman (Fiorina), an Indian-American (Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal), and an African-American (Carson); three of the aforementioned candidates, Rubio, Cruz and Jindal, were also the sons of immigrants.[16][17]
Candidates[edit]
Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). They are listed alphabetically by last name.
Candidates featured in major polls[edit]
The following 15 candidates (listed alphabetically) have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls and are presently on the ballot in the South Carolina primary.[18]
- Jeb Bush, Governor of Florida 1999–2007; Florida Secretary of Commerce 1987–1988 (campaign)[19][20]
- Ben Carson, author and former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery for Johns Hopkins Hospital 1984-2013 (campaign)[21][22][23]
- Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey since 2010 (campaign)[24][25]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008 (campaign)[11][12][26]
- Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO 1999-2005; nominee for Senate in California in 2010 (campaign)[27][28]
- Jim Gilmore, presidential candidate in 2008, Governor of Virginia 1998–2002 (campaign)[29][30]
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003 (campaign)[31][32]
- Mike Huckabee, Governor of Arkansas 1996–2007; presidential candidate in 2008 (campaign)[33][34]
- Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008 (campaign)[35][36]
- John Kasich, Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative from Ohio 1983–2001; presidential candidate in 2000 (campaign)[37][38]
- George Pataki, Governor of New York 1995–2006 (campaign)[39][40]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011 (campaign)[41][42][43]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; Florida Speaker of the House 2007–2008 (campaign)[44][45][46]
- Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995–2007; U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania 1991-1995; presidential candidate in 2012 (campaign)[47][48]
- Donald Trump, Chairman of The Trump Organization since 1971 from New York City (campaign)[49][50][51]
Gallery of logos of major presidential campaigns[edit]
-
Former Governor Jeb Bush -
Governor Chris Christie -
Senator Ted Cruz -
Former Governor Jim Gilmore -
Senator Lindsey Graham -
Former Governor Mike Huckabee -
Governor Bobby Jindal -
Governor John Kasich -
Former Governor George Pataki -
Senator Rand Paul -
Senator Marco Rubio -
Former Senator Rick Santorum
Other candidates[edit]
The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.
- Mark Everson, Former Internal Revenue Service Commissioner and former head of the American Red Cross, from Mississippi[52][53][54]
- Jack Fellure, Retired engineer and perennial candidate from West Virginia[55]
- Andy Martin, birther theorist and perennial candidate from New York[56][57]
- Jimmy McMillan, perennial candidate from New York[58]
Withdrew before the primaries[edit]
- Rick Perry, former Governor of Texas (2000–2015). Suspended campaign on September 11, 2015.[59]
- Scott Walker, Governor of Wisconsin (2011–present). Suspended campaign on September 21, 2015.[60]
Timeline[edit]
| Active Campaigns | |
| Ended Campaigns | |
| Iowa Caucuses | |
| Republican National Convention | |
| Election Day | |
| Inauguration Day |

2012–2014: Fluctuating frontrunners[edit]
In the immediate aftermath of 2012, the potential 2016 field was left without a clear frontrunner, similarly to 2008. Various narratives began rising from all sides of the right-leaning political spectrum as to who the best possible nominee could be: One faction of candidates included young freshmen senators, often with alliances to the Tea Party movement, which was most represented by Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio in particular was the focus of attention immediately following 2012; in most national polls from late 2012 to mid-2013, Rubio was the clear frontrunner due to being young, articulate, having a broad appeal among conservatives and moderates, and also for his Latino heritage and continued efforts on immigration reform, which many viewed as possible tools to draw Hispanic voters to the GOP.[61][62][63]
However, another narrative for the nomination, similarly to what drove Romney’s campaign, was that the nominee needed to be a governor in a traditionally Democratic state, with a proven record that would stand as proof that such a governor could be president as well. The possible candidates that fit this criteria included former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, Ohio governor John Kasich, former New York governor George Pataki, and New Jersey governor Chris Christie. Christie in particular had been rising in popularity due to his loud and blunt manner of speaking at public events, which was championed by some as challenging conventional political rhetoric.[64][65][66] With his record as governor of New Jersey, a heavily Democratic state, factored in, Christie overtook Rubio as frontrunner from mid-2013 up until early 2014, when the "Bridgegate" scandal was first revealed and started to damage Christie’s reputation and poll standing.[67] Although Christie was later cleared of personal responsibility in the subsequent investigation, he never regained frontrunner status.[68]
After Christie’s fall in the polls, the polls fluctuated from January 2014 to November 2014; candidates who often performed well included Rand Paul, Wisconsin congressman and 2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, and former candidates such as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and then-governor of Texas Rick Perry, further reflecting the uncertainty of the upcoming race for the nomination.[69][70]
2014–2015: Jeb Bush as an unsteady frontrunner[edit]
Throughout all of the previous polling, Jeb Bush had often polled in the low double digits or higher, always considered a prominent candidate due to his high fundraising ability, record as governor of Florida (a crucial swing state), and being viewed as electable in the general election, while criticisms included his moderate stances and establishment ties, as well as his family name possibly being the target of Democratic attacks evoking the memory of his older brother George’s presidency.[71][72] By November of 2014, Bush had finally solidified his status as a clear frontrunner in the polls for the nomination, but often rivaled other candidates in a manner that some analysts claimed was similar to Mitt Romney’s status prior to the 2012 primaries.[73][74]
Around the time Bush began to solidify his frontrunner status, there were talks of the possibility of former nominee Mitt Romney making a third run for the presidency. During this period from November of 2014 to late January of 2015, the speculation fueled Romney’s rise in many national polls as well, challenging Bush.[75] Although Romney admitted he was entertaining the idea after initially declining, he ultimately reaffirmed his decision not to run on January 30, thus leaving Bush as the frontrunner once more.[76]
However, by the end of February, less than a month after Romney ruled himself out, another challenger rose to match Bush in the polls: Wisconsin governor Scott Walker. Walker often touted his record as governor in a traditionally Democratic state, particularly noting his victory in a recall election in 2012 (the first governor in American history to do so), combined with his reelection in 2014. Walker and Bush balanced out in the polls from late February until about mid-June.[77] Walker’s challenge to Bush also allowed other candidates to briefly resurge in some polls from late April up until mid-June, including former top performers Rubio, Paul, and Huckabee, in addition to several newcomers to the top tier of polling, including Ted Cruz and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson.[78][79]
2015: Donald Trump’s surge, and the rise of the outsiders[edit]
Shortly after businessman and reality TV host Donald Trump announced his candidacy on June 16, many pundits quickly began noting his uniquely outspoken nature, with his blunt language often directly contradicting traditional political rhetoric. This style was seen as resonating strongly with potential Republican primary voters, and Trump began to rise in the polls.[80] After a few weeks of briefly matching Bush, Trump surged into first place in all major national polls by mid-July, quickly extending his lead into the largest margins in the primary field yet, from the high 20’s to the 30’s, and even briefly reaching 40% in some polls.[81][82]
With the surge of Trump, a man who had never held political office, the general focus began to shift over to other non-politician candidates, known as “outsiders,” and the other two outsiders in the field quickly rose in the polls as well in the wake of the first two debates: Ben Carson rose into second place after a well-received performance in the first debate, while former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina rose into the top three after her performance in the second debate.[83][84][85] The rising popularity of non-politician outsiders has shocked many political analysts, and fueled a new conversation about how those with no political experience or prior runs for office could appeal more to potential primary voters than lifelong career politicians, and what it means for the future of the Republican party and American politics in general.[86][87][88]
In mid-September, the first two major candidates dropped out of the race. Former Texas governor Rick Perry suspended his campaign on September 11, citing his failure to qualify for the primetime debates, his subsequent failure to raise a significant amount of money, and his indictment as reasons for dropping out.[89][90] Only ten days later, Scott Walker suspended his campaign on September 21, mainly due to his own poll numbers dropping after two lackluster debate performances.[91]
Process[edit]
The Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses are indirect elections in which voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention; these delegates in turn directly elect the Republican Party's presidential nominee. However, depending on each state's law and each state's party rules, when voters cast ballots for a candidate, they may be voting to actually award delegates bound to vote for a particular candidate at the state or national convention (binding primary or caucus), or they may simply be expressing an opinion that the state party is not bound to follow in selecting delegates to the national convention (non-binding primary or caucus).
Under the party's delegate selection rules, the number of pledged delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states is 10, plus three delegates for each congressional district. For Washington, D.C.; and the U.S. territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands, fixed numbers of pledged delegates are allocated. Each state and U.S territory will be awarded bonus pledged delegates based on whether it has a Republican governor, it has Republican majorities in one or all chambers of its state legislature, and whether it has Republican majorities in its delegation to the U.S. Congress, among other factors. A state or territory may then either use a winner-take-all system, wherein the candidate that wins a plurality of votes wins all of that state's allocated pledged delegates; or use a proportional representation system, where the delegates are awarded proportionally to the election results.[92]
Unpledged delegates will include three top party officials from each state and territory.[92]
The Republican National Committee has also imposed strict new rules for states wishing to hold early contests in 2016.[93] No state will be permitted to hold a primary or caucus in January; and only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada are entitled to February contests. States with early-March primaries or caucuses must award their delegates proportionally. Any state that violates these rules will have their delegation to the 2016 convention severely cut: states with more than 30 delegates will be deprived of all but nine, plus RNC members from that state; states with less than 30 will be reduced to six, plus RNC members.[93]
Schedule of primaries and caucuses[edit]
As of September 2015[update], the tentative schedule for 2016 is as follows:
| Date[94][95] | State/ territory |
Calculated delegates[96][a] |
Type[97][b] |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 1, 2016 | Iowa | 30 | Closed caucus |
| February 9, 2016 | New Hampshire | 23 | Modified primary |
| February 20, 2016 | South Carolina | 50 | Open primary |
| February 23, 2016 | Nevada | 30 | Closed caucus |
| March 1, 2016 | Alabama | 50 | Open primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Alaska | 28 | Closed caucus |
| March 1, 2016 | Arkansas | 40 | Open primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Georgia | 76 | Modified primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Massachusetts | 42 | Modified primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Minnesota | 38 | Open caucus |
| March 1, 2016 | Oklahoma | 43 | Closed primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Tennessee | 58 | Open primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Texas | 155 | Open primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Vermont | 16 | Open primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Virginia | 49 | Open primary |
| March 1, 2016 | Wyoming | 29 | Closed caucus |
| March 5, 2016 | Maine | 23 | Closed caucus |
| March 5, 2016 | Kansas | 40 | Closed caucus |
| March 5, 2016 | Kentucky | 45 | Closed caucus |
| March 5, 2016 | Louisiana | 46 | Closed primary |
| March 8, 2016 | Hawaii | 19 | Closed caucus |
| March 8, 2016 | Mississippi | 39 | Open primary |
| March 8, 2016 | Michigan | 59 | Closed primary |
| March 13, 2016 | Puerto Rico | 23 | Open primary |
| March 15, 2016 | Ohio | 66 | Modified primary |
| March 15, 2016 | Florida | 99 | Closed primary |
| March 15, 2016 | Illinois | 69 | Open primary |
| March 15, 2016 | Missouri | 52 | Modified caucus |
| March 15, 2016 | North Carolina | 72 | Modified primary |
| March 22, 2016 | Arizona | 58 | Closed primary |
| March 22, 2016 | Utah | 40 | Modified primary |
| April 5, 2016 | Wisconsin | 42 | Open primary |
| April 19, 2016 | New York | 95 | Closed primary |
| April 26, 2016 | Connecticut | 28 | Closed primary |
| April 26, 2016 | Delaware | 16 | Closed primary |
| April 26, 2016 | Maryland | 38 | Closed primary |
| April 26, 2016 | Pennsylvania | 71 | Closed primary |
| April 26, 2016 | Rhode Island | 19 | Modified primary |
| May 3, 2016 | Indiana | 57 | Open primary |
| May 10, 2016 | Nebraska | 36 | ? |
| May 10, 2016 | West Virginia | 34 | Modified primary |
| May 17, 2016 | Oregon | 28 | Closed primary |
| June 7, 2016 | California | 172 | Closed primary |
| June 7, 2016 | Montana | 27 | Closed caucus |
| June 7, 2016 | New Jersey | 51 | Modified primary |
| June 7, 2016 | New Mexico | 24 | Closed primary |
| June 7, 2016 | South Dakota | 29 | Closed primary |
| June 14, 2016 | District of Columbia | 19 | Closed primary |
| TBA | North Dakota | 28 | Closed caucus |
| TBA | Colorado | 37 | Closed caucus |
| TBA | Idaho | 32 | Closed caucus |
| TBA | Washington | 44 | Closed caucus |
| TBA | American Samoa | 9 | Open caucus |
| TBA | Guam | 9 | Closed caucus |
| TBA | Northern Marianas | 9 | Closed caucus |
| TBA | Virgin Islands | 9 | Closed caucus |
See also[edit]
- Republican Party presidential primaries
- Republican Party presidential candidates, 2016
- Republican Party presidential debates, 2016
- 2016 Republican National Convention
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries
- Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
- Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
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External links[edit]
- http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/ Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions.
Notes[edit]
- ^ Delegate count includes the unpledged delegates, the three top party officials from each state and territory that can vote for any candidate regardless of primary votes.
- ^ Differences between types:
- Open: Anyone can vote regardless of their registered party affiliation.
- Closed: You must be registered as a Republican to vote in this election.
- Modified: As long as you are not registered as a Democrat you can vote in this election.
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