United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2016

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United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2016
Louisiana
← 2010 November 8 and December 10, 2016 2022 →
  John Neely Kennedy, official portrait, 115th Congress 2.jpg FosterCampbell.jpg
Nominee John Neely Kennedy Foster Campbell
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 536,191 347,816
Percentage 60.7% 39.3%

Louisiana Senate Runoff Election Results 2016.svg
Parish Results

U.S. Senator before election

David Vitter
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John Neely Kennedy
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Under Louisiana's "jungle primary" system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters could vote for any candidate. Since no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election, a runoff election was held on December 10[1] between the top two candidates in the primary, Republican John Neely Kennedy and Democrat Foster Campbell. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

Incumbent Republican Senator David Vitter unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Louisiana in the 2015 election, losing to Democrat John Bel Edwards.[2] In his concession speech, Vitter announced that he would not seek re-election.[3]

In addition to Kennedy and Campbell, four other candidates — Republicans Charles Boustany, John Fleming, and David Duke, and Democrat Caroline Fayard — qualified to participate at a debate at Dillard University, a historically black college, on November 2, 2016.[4][5]

On November 8, Kennedy and Campbell finished in first and second respectively and thus advanced to the runoff, which was held on December 10. In the runoff, Kennedy won the election with over 60% of the vote.

Candidates[edit]

Republican Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Democratic Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Libertarian Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

Independents[edit]

Declared[edit]

Jungle primary[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Charles
Boustany (R)
Foster
Campbell (D)
Joseph
Cao (R)
David
Duke (R)
Derrick
Edwards (D)
Caroline
Fayard (D)
John
Fleming (R)
Troy
Hebert (I)
John
Neely
Kennedy (R)
Gary
Landrieu (D)
Rob
Maness (R)
MV
"Vinny"
Mendoza (D)
Abhay
Patel (R)
Joshua
Pellerin (D)
Peter
Williams (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 982 ± 4.6% 14% 13% 3% 21% 12% 21% 6% 4% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 840 ± 4.6% 15% 14% 3% 20% 11% 21% 6% 5% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 646 ± 4.6% 15% 14% 3% 19% 11% 21% 5% 4% 8%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 546 ± 4.6% 13% 13% 3% 21% 12% 21% 5% 4% 8%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 470 ± 4.6% 13% 13% 2% 21% 12% 23% 4% 3% 9%
Southern Media and Opinion Research October 19–21, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 14% 16% 12% 9% 22% 27%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 15–21, 2016 614 ± 3.0% 12% 17% 2% 4% 12% 10% 18% 4% 0% 5% 17%
University of New Orleans October 15–21, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 15% 15% 1% 2% 10% 11% 22% 4% 1% 7% 12%
FOX 8/Mason-Dixon October 20, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 11% 19% 5% 0.5% 12% 10% 24% 0.3% 3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2% 13%
Market Research Insight October 17–19, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 16% 14% 12% 7% 17% 34%
JMC Analytics (R) October 11–15, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 16% 25% 3% - 10% 16% 16% - 3% - - 2% 10%
JMC Analytics (R) September 22–24, 2016 905 ± 3.3% 15% 15% 3% - 12% 14% 11% - 4% - - 1% 25%
Market Research Insight September 17–19, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 12% 10% 11% 10% 18% 39%
Southern Media and Opinion Research September 15–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 15% 9% 2% 3% - 11% 8% 1% 17% - 3% - - 0.4% 2% 2% 26%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[132][131] August 29–September 1, 2016 605 ± 4.0% 13% 7% 3% - 13% 6% 3% 18% - 4% - - 1% 1% 31%
The Hayride/Remington Research August 29–30, 2016 1,017 ± 3.2% 13% 16% 6% - 12% 6% 0% 27% - 4% - - 0% 15%
GBA Strategies June 6–9, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 11% 15% 3% - 14% 9% 7% 30% - 6% - - 2% 2%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research May 31–June 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 11% 14% - 9% 7% 24% - 3% - - 33%
Southern Media and Opinion Research May 19–23, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 10% 9% - 4% 5% 2% 32% - 4% - - 1%[133] 32%
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 10% 12% 4% - 10% 7% 5% 21% - 6% - - 3% 15%
Southern Media and Opinion Research February 2–4, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 10% 7% - 4% 6% 22% - 7% - - 30%
SurveyUSA December 4–7, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 10% 23% - 6% 21% - 9% - - 19%

Results[edit]

Jungle primary results by parish
  John Neely Kennedy (R)
  Foster Campbell (D)
  Charles Boustany (R)
  Caroline Fayard (D)
  John Fleming (R)
2016 Louisiana US Senate blanket primary[134]
Party Candidate Votes  %
Republican John Neely Kennedy 482,591 25.0%
Democratic Foster Campbell 337,833 17.5%
Republican Charles Boustany 298,008 15.4%
Democratic Caroline Fayard 240,917 12.5%
Republican John Fleming 204,026 10.6%
Republican Rob Maness 90,856 4.7%
Republican David Duke 58,606 3.0%
Democratic Derrick Edwards 51,774 2.7%
Democratic Gary Landrieu 45,587 2.4%
Republican Donald "Crawdaddy" Crawford 25,523 1.3%
Republican Joseph Cao 21,019 1.1%
No party Beryl Billiot 19,352 1.0%
Libertarian Thomas Clements 11,370 0.6%
No party Troy Hebert 9,503 0.5%
Democratic Josh Pellerin 7,395 0.4%
Democratic Peter Williams 6,855 0.4%
Democratic Vinny Mendoza 4,927 0.3%
No party Kaitlin Marone 4,108 0.2%
Libertarian Le Roy Gillam 4,067 0.2%
Republican Charles Marsala 3,684 0.2%
Republican Abhay Patel 1,576 0.1%
No party Arden Wells 1,483 0.1%
Other Bob Lang 1,424 0.1%
Other Gregory Taylor 1,151 0.1%
Total 1,933,635 100.0%

Runoff[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Neely
Kennedy (R)
Foster
Campbell (D)
Undecided
University of New Orleans December 6, 2016 776 ± 4.9% 62% 33% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R) December 5–6, 2016 2,500 ± 2.0% 56% 40% 4%
Emerson College November 29–30, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 51% 33% 16%
Southern Media and Opinion Research November 28–30, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 52% 38% 10%
Tulane University November 8–18, 2016 820 ± 3.0% 60% 40% 0%
Trafalgar Group (R) November 14–17, 2016 2,200 ± 2.1% 58% 35% 6%
The Hayride/Remington Research August 29–30, 2016 1,017 ± 3.2% 51% 27% 22%
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 54% 34% 12%

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[135] Safe R November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[136] Likely R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[137] Safe R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[138] Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[139] Likely R November 8, 2016

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2016[140]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican John Neely Kennedy 536,191 60.65% +4.09%
Democratic Foster Campbell 347,816 39.35% +1.68%
Majority 188,375 21.30%
Total votes 884,007 100.00%
Republican hold Swing

References[edit]

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  77. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af "New Orleans Community Leaders Unite Behind Foster Campbell for U.S. Senate". Foster Campbell for U.S. Senate. September 12, 2016. Retrieved September 13, 2016. 
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  121. ^ The Moon Griffon Show, August 4, 2016
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  123. ^ Barfield Berry, Deborah (March 3, 2016). "Rob Maness, John Fleming get key endorsements". The Daily Advertiser. Retrieved March 3, 2016. 
  124. ^ The Moon Griffon Show, August 1, 2016
  125. ^ Crisp, Elizabeth (February 3, 2016). "Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser endorses Rob Maness for U.S. Senate". The Advocate. Retrieved February 28, 2016. 
  126. ^ "Sarah Palin Endorses Louisiana’s Col. Rob Maness for United States Senate". March 31, 2016. Retrieved April 2, 2016. 
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  129. ^ "General Paul Vallely Endorses Col. Rob Maness for US Senate in Louisiana". December 23, 2015. Retrieved December 30, 2015. 
  130. ^ "Republican Liberty Caucus Endorses Col. Maness". Rob Maness for Senate. June 8, 2016. Retrieved July 22, 2016. 
  131. ^ Crisp, Elizabeth (February 8, 2016). "Tea Party of Louisiana endorses Rob Maness in Senate race". The Advocate. Retrieved February 28, 2016. 
  132. ^ Poll conducted on behalf of Democrats for Education Reform Louisiana, which has endorsed Caroline Fayard
  133. ^ Eric Skrmetta
  134. ^ "Official Election Results". Louisiana Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 17, 2016. 
  135. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 8, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 21, 2016. 
  136. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 21, 2016. 
  137. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings (November 3, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 21, 2016. 
  138. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 21, 2016. 
  139. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 21, 2016. 
  140. ^ https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/Graphical

External links[edit]