Solar cycle 25

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Solar cycle 25
ISES Solar Cycle 25 Sunspot Number Progression and Predictions as of January 2024
Sunspot data
Start dateDecember 2019
Max count125 (smoothed)
Max count monthJune 2023 (progressive)[1]
Min count1.8
Cycle chronology
Previous cycleSolar cycle 24 (12/2008-12/2019)

Solar cycle 25 is the current solar cycle, the 25th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. It began in December 2019 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 1.8.[2] It is expected to continue until about 2030.[3][4]

Predictions[edit]

Widely varying predictions regarding the strength of cycle 25 ranged from very weak with suggestions of slow slide in to a Maunder minimum like state[5][6] to a weak cycle similar to previous cycle 24[7] and even a strong cycle.[8][9][10] Upton and Hathaway predicted that the weakness of cycle 25 would make it part of the Modern Gleissberg Minimum.[5]

The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel predicted in December 2019[11] that solar cycle 25 will be similar to solar cycle 24, with the preceding solar cycle minimum in April 2020 (± 6 months), and the number of sunspots reaching a (smoothed) maximum of 115 in July 2025 (± 8 months). This prediction is in line with the current general agreement in the scientific literature, which holds that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than average (i.e. weaker than during the exceptionally strong Modern Maximum).[7] However, observations from 2020 to 2022, the first three years of the cycle, significantly exceed predicted values.[12]

Cycle 25 predictions
Source Date Cycle max Cycle start Cycle end
Thompson, M.J. et al.[4] August 2014 Q4 2019
Zharkova, V. et al 2014, 2015.[13] (Northumbria U.) October 2014 65 (80% of cycle 24)
Upton, L.A. and Hathaway, D.H.[5] (Solar Observatories Group, Stanford University) December 2018 78 (95% of cycle 24) Late 2020 – Early 2021
Xu, J.C. et al.[8] (Chinese Academy of Sciences) August 2018 168.5 ± 16.3 (2024) October 2020
Bhowmik, P. and Nandy, D.[7] (IISER Kolkata) December 2018 124 ± 15 (2023–2025) 2020 after 2031
Ozguc, A. et al.[9] (Harvard U-ty) December 2018 154 ± 12 (2023.2±1.1)
NOAA / SSRC[14] April 2019 117 ± 23 (2023–2026) mid-2019 – late 2020
NASA[15] June 2019 70 ± 29 (30–50% lower than Cycle 24 (2025)) 2020
NOAA / SSRC (update)[16] December 2019 115 ± 10 (July 2025) April 2020 (± 6 months)
Mcintosh et al.[17][18] June 2020 229 ± 25
Mcintosh et al.[17][18] December 2020 190 ± 20
National Center for Atmospheric Research[19] December 2020 233
de Jager, C. and Duhau, S. [20] December 2020 160 ± 8 (2025 ± 1)
Actual, for comparison Present >125 December 2019 -

Progress[edit]

Time vs. solar latitude diagram of the radial component of the solar magnetic field (supersynoptic map or “butterfly” diagram) for cycle 24 based on the (zero-point corrected) integer rotation synoptic maps from GONG. Blue/red show negative/positive polarity fields scaled between ±5 Gauss. Two black arrows mark approximate location of two latitudinal bands of cycle 25. Data are acquired by GONG instruments operated by NISP/NSO/AURA/NSF.

As of April 2018, the Sun showed signs of a reverse magnetic polarity sunspot appearing and beginning this solar cycle.[21] It is typical during the transition from one cycle to the next to experience a period where sunspots of both polarities exist (during the solar minimum). The polarward reversed polarity sunspots suggested that a transition to cycle 25 was in process.[22] The first cycle 25 sunspot may have appeared in early April 2018[23][24] or even December 2016.[22]

In November 2019, two reversed polarity sunspots appeared, possibly signaling the onset of cycle 25.[25][26]

Nandy et al., analyzed the polarity orientation of bipolar magnetic regions observed in December 2019 and concluded that magnetic regions with the underlying orientation of solar cycle 25 toroidal field component were brewing in the solar convection zone, representing early signs of the new cycle.[27]

Supersynoptic (time vs. solar latitude) map of the radial component of the solar magnetic field for cycles 24-25 based on observations from the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) shows magnetic activity of cycle 25 beginning November 2019 at about 30 degree latitudes in both solar hemispheres.[28] A more recent supersynoptic map is available.[29]

The following table gives the number of days so far in cycle 25 against the number up to the same point in cycle 24, which have passed various thresholds for the numbers of sunspots.

Counts SC 24
to Feb 14 2013 		SC 25
to Feb 14 2024
≥75 416 610
≥100 254 429
≥125 127 271
≥150 46 136
≥175 6 46
≥200 0 10
≥225 0 2


As at Feb 14 2024, solar cycle 25 is averaging 28% more spots per day than solar cycle 24 at the same point in the cycle (Feb 14 2013).

Year 1 of SC25 (Dec 2019 to Nov 2020) averaged 101% more spots per day than year 1 of SC24.
Year 2 of SC25 (Dec 2020 to Nov 2021) averaged 7% more spots per day than year 2 of SC24.
Year 3 of SC25 (Dec 2021 to Nov 2022) averaged 8% more spots per day than year 3 of SC24.
Year 4 of SC25 (Dec 2022 to Nov 2023) averaged 41% more spots per day than year 4 of SC24.
Year 5 of SC25 (Dec 1 2023 to Feb 14 2024) is currently averaging 70% more spots per day than the corresponding period of SC24.

Events[edit]

The strongest flares of Solar Cycle 25 (above M5.0 class) and related events

Class Date Sunspot
region		 Radio B. SR Storm CME GM Storm
X6.37 2024-02-23 3590 R3 - No -
X5.01 2023‑12‑31 3536 R3 S1 Yes -
X3.38 2024-02-09 3575 R3 S2 Yes -
X2.87 2023‑12‑14 3514 R3 S1 Yes G1
X2.56 2024-02-16 3576 R3 S0 Yes -
X2.28 2023‑02‑17 3229 R3 - Yes -
X2.25 2022‑04‑20 2992 R3 - Yes -
X2.07 2023‑03‑03 3234 R3 - Yes -
X1.98 2023‑01‑09 3184 R3 - No -
X1.9 2024-02-21 3590 R3 - No -
X1.7 2024-02-22 3590 R3 - No -
X1.63 2023‑08‑05 3386 R3 S1 Yes -
X1.59 2021‑07‑03 2838 R3 - Yes -
X1.51 2022‑05‑10 3006 R3 - No -
X1.51 2023‑08‑07 3386 R3 S1 Yes -
X1.38 2022‑03‑30 2975 R3 S1 Yes G1
X1.27 2023‑03‑29 3256 R3 - Yes -
X1.22 2023‑01‑06 3182 R3 - No -
X1.17 2022‑04‑17 2994 R3 - Yes -
X1.16 2023‑02‑11 3217 R3 - No -
X1.13 2022‑04‑30 2994 R3 - Yes -
X1.13 2022‑05‑03 3006 R3 - No -
X1.12 2024-03-23 3614 R3 S2 Yes G4
X1.12 2024-03-29 3615 R3 - Yes ?
X1.11 2023‑06‑20 3341 R3 - Yes -
X1.08 2023‑07‑02 3354 R3 - No -
X1.06 2022‑10‑02 3110 R3 - Yes -
X1.06 2023‑01‑10 3186 R3 - Yes -
X1.0 2021‑10‑28 2887 R3 S1 Yes -
M9.82 2023‑11‑28 3500 R2 - Yes G3
M9.76 2024-03-28 3615 R2 - No -
M9.67 2022‑03‑31 2975 R2 - Yes -
M9.66 2022‑04‑21 2993 R2 - Yes -
M9.62 2023‑05‑16 3310 R2 - No -
M9.42 2024-03-30 3615 R2 - Yes ?
M9.39 2024-03-30 3615 R2 - Yes ?
M9.04 2024-02-10 3576 R2 S1 Yes -
M8.96 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 - No -
M8.77 2022‑10‑02 3110 R2 - Yes G1
M8.72 2023‑09‑21 3435 R2 - Yes G2
M8.67 2022‑08‑29 3088 R2 - No -
M8.62 2023‑02‑28 3234 R2 - Yes -
M8.23 2023‑09‑20 3435 R2 - No -
M7.92 2022‑09‑16 3098 R2 - No -
M7.48 2024-03-20 3615 R2 - No -
M7.43 2024-03-10 3599 R2 S0 Yes -
M7.29 2022‑04‑20 2992 R2 - Yes -
M7.27 2023‑05‑03 3293 R2 - No -
M7.24 2022‑08‑26 3089 R2 - Yes -
M7.12 2023‑05‑01 3288 R2 - No -
M7.1 2024-03-28 3615 R2 - No -
M6.97 2023‑07‑12 3372 R2 - No -
M6.97 2023‑12‑15 3514 R2 - Yes G1
M6.83 2023‑07‑11 3368 R2 - No -
M6.83 2024-01-29 3559 R2 S2 Yes -
M6.77 2024-03-18 3615 R2 - No -
M6.73 2022‑08‑28 3088 R2 - Yes -
M6.57 2023‑05‑09 3296 R2 - Yes -
M6.5 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 - No -
M6.5 2024-02-12 3576 R2 - No -
M6.39 2023‑02‑07 3213 R2 - No -
M6.36 2022‑12‑14 3165 R2 - No -
M6.35 2023‑02‑25 3229 R2 S1 Yes G3
M6.2 2022‑09‑16 3098 R2 - No -
M6.14 2024-03-28 3615 R2 - No -
M6.03 2023‑01‑15 3191 R2 - Yes -
M6.01 2023‑09‑03 3413 R2 - Yes -
M5.86 2022‑10‑01 3110 R2 - Yes G1
M5.86 2023‑07‑11 3372 R2 - No -
M5.84 2023‑12‑14 3514 R2 - Yes G1
M5.8 2023‑03‑06 3243 R2 - Yes -
M5.76 2022‑05‑04 3004 R2 - No -
M5.74 2022‑12‑15 3165 R2 - No -
M5.72 2023‑07‑17 3363 R2 S2 Yes -
M5.68 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 - No -
M5.67 2023‑01‑11 3184 R2 - Yes -
M5.54 2022‑05‑19 3014 R2 - No -
M5.51 2023‑08‑06 3386 R2 - Yes -
M5.5 2022‑01‑20 2929 R2 S1 Yes -
M5.49 2023‑12‑08 3511 R2 - No -
M5.47 2023-04-11 3639 R2 ? Yes ?
M5.41 2023‑03‑30 3256 R2 S0 Yes -
M5.39 2022‑08‑26 3089 R2 - No -
M5.39 2023‑05‑19 3311 R2 - No -
M5.32 2022‑05‑04 3006 R2 - No -
M5.27 2022‑03‑04 3234 R2 - Yes -
M5.25 2022‑11‑07 3141 R2 - No -
M5.2 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 - No -
M5.18 2024-02-07 3575 R2 - Yes -
M5.15 2023‑01‑10 3186 R2 S0 Yes -
M5.12 2024-01-23 3559 R2 - Yes -
M5.09 2023‑02‑21 3234 R2 - Yes -
M5.08 2022‑08‑16 3078 R2 - No -
M5.04 2023‑03‑05 3243 R2 - No -
M5.02 2023‑05‑09 3296 R2 - No -


Solar flares by year
10
20
30
40
50
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
  •   M5-M9
  •   X1-X5
  •   X5-X9
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity[30]
100
200
300
400
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

2020[edit]

Solar flares in 2020[31]
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2020[31]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

On 29 May, the first C-class solar flares of Solar Cycle 25 took place, as well as the first M-class flare. Solar activity continued to increase in the following months, especially abruptly in October, with flares taking place on a near-daily basis by November. On 29 November, an M4.4 flare, the strongest of the cycle to date, took place, possibly indicating that the solar cycle would be more active than initially thought.[32]

On 8 December, a small coronal mass ejection was found heading directly towards Earth shortly after a strong C-class solar flare, hitting the planet on 9–10 December and causing bright aurorae at high latitudes.[33][34]

2021[edit]

Solar flares in 2021[35]
50
100
150
200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2021[35]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

The first X-class solar flare of the cycle took place on 3 July, peaking at X1.59.[36]

On 22 July, a total of six different active regions were seen on the solar disk for the first time since 6 September 2017.[37]

On 9 October, a M1.6 class solar flare erupted sending a coronal mass ejection that hit Earth on 12 October, triggering a (moderate) G2 geomagnetic storm.[38]

The second X-class flare of the solar cycle erupted on 28 October, producing a CME and a S1 solar radiation storm.[39] Reports initially predicted that the CME could graze Earth,[39] however geomagnetic storms on 30–31 October only reached a moderate Kp index of 4.[40]

On 3 and 4 November, the Kp index reached 8−, equivalent to a G4 geomagnetic storm.[41] This was the most intense geomagnetic storm to hit Earth since September 2017.

2022[edit]

Solar flares in 2022[30]
100
200
300
400
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2022[30]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

In late March, sunspot region 2975 released X1.3 and M9.6 flares, the former causing a G1 geomagnetic storm on 31 March despite being near the solar limb.[42] The region rotated out of view of Earth on 5 April, but helioseismic measurements on April 8 showed it still active on the far side of the Sun.[43] On 12 April, a Coronal Mass Ejection on the far side likely erupted from the region,[44] with helioseismic measurements showing the region to have intensified since crossing over the limb. As the region began rotating into view from Earth, a possibly X-class flare occurred on 15 April.[45]

After rotating to the visible hemisphere of the Sun, the regions of the sunspot complex were designated 2993 through 2996. On 17 April, sunspot group 2994 released an X1.2 flare.[46][47] However, the complex's activity subsided slightly in the next few days.[48] While crossing the solar limb, sunspot region 2992 emitted M7.3 and X2.2 flares, the latter being the strongest of the cycle up to that point.[48]

2023[edit]

Solar flares in 2023[49]
100
200
300
400
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2023[49]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

On 24 March, an intense geomagnetic storm hit Earth unexpectedly, reaching a level of G4 and producing auroras as far south as New Mexico. A minor CME from an M1 flare was predicted to hit the day earlier, but the timing and intensity were unexpected.[50] Later, on 23 and 24 April, more G4 storms hit Earth, on the former day being tied with several days in solar cycle 24 for the strongest storm since 2005.[51] Auroras were visible as far south as San Antonio, Texas.[52]

On 14 December, a solar flare measuring X2.87 was recorded from sunspot region 3514, making it the strongest solar flare of the cycle for just 17 days,[53] as on 31 December, a solar flare measuring X5.0 was recorded from sunspot 3536.[54]

2024[edit]

Solar flares in 2024[55]
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2024[55]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

On 9 February, region 3575 produced an X3.4 flare, the second strongest of the cycle up to that point, causing radiation levels to briefly exceed S2 over the following days.[56] On 12 February, after rotating to the far side of the Sun, the same region released a strong CME. As it was invisible from Earth, it was impossible to assess the flare's strength, but it nonetheless caused proton storm levels to briefly reach S2 again on February 12–13.

On 22 February, region 3590 produced a solar flare measuring X6.3.[57]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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External links[edit]

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