Spain–NATO 5% military spending conflict
 | It has been suggested that this article be merged into Agreement on 5% NATO defence spending by 2035. (Discuss) Proposed since June 2025. |
The Spain–NATO 5% military spending conflict centers on Spain’s rejection of NATO’s 2025 mandate, agreed at The Hague Summit, for all member countries to raise defense expenditures to 5% of GDP by 2035. Spain, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, has insisted it will cap its defense budget at 2.1% of GDP, citing fiscal and social spending concerns. This stance triggered friction with the United States,[1] a NATO member and world's largest weapons exporter, with the latter's leader, Donald Trump, threatening that his country will be paid back by Spain through tariffs instead.
Background
[edit]In June 2025, NATO members agreed on a new defense spending framework calling for combined 3.5% of GDP dedicated to core military capabilities and 1.5% for related security and resilience measures, totaling 5%. The commitment is to be implemented by 2035, with a progress review scheduled for 2029.[1]
This decision followed prior NATO guidance, most notably the 2% of GDP benchmark established in 2014, adoption of which among member states was inconsistent. The updated target was driven by growing concerns over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, cybersecurity threats, and pressure from the United States to ensure equitable burden-sharing.[1]
Under the Trump administration, the U.S. parted ways with the bipartisan foreign policy consensus, based on "...Trump's belief that NATO and America’s other major alliances should be explicitly organized as protection rackets rather than as partnerships".[2]
Analysts point out that Spain tend to spend more on defense than is budgeted through extraordinary contributions, sometimes exceeding the official budget by 20% to 30%.[3]
Spain's position
[edit]Spain formally requested to be exempt from the 5% target.[4] Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, in a letter to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, described the 5% goal as "unreasonable and counterproductive".[4]
Sánchez explained that a 5% of GDP expenditure on defense would be "disproportionate and unnecessary".[5] He also favoured to advance in "strategic autonomy" rather than depending excessively in the military industry of other countries, arguing that "it is not about spending more, but spending better, and doing it in a coordinated way. Rushing to get to 5% would only reinforce our dependence [from foreign suppliers] and harm national economic growth", and, finally, he argued that the aforementioned percentage was incompatible with a State providing welfare to its nationals.[5] He also stated that, in order for Spain to reach the capabilities targets agreed on 5 June 2025, the Spanish Armed Forces had estimated a 2.1% GDP spending.[6]
Spain subsequently agreed to be excluded from the 5% requirement in the final summit text, although the declaration still stipulates the 2035 timeline and 2029 review date.[7]
Reactions
[edit]NATO Secretary General
[edit]Mark Rutte, while recognizing Spain’s domestic concerns, emphasized that all allies are expected to increase defense investment. He described Spain’s stance as “flexible exemption” but cautioned that exceptions should not undermine collective resolve.[8]
United States
[edit]U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Spain's position, labeling it "very terrible" and threatened that "Spain will pay double" in future trade negotiations.[7] He also suggested that allies who do not meet the 5% threshold could "lose U.S. protection".[citation needed] Trump also threatened Spain stating that they "will have to pay it back to us [the United States] on trade because I am not going to let that happen.[9]
Implications and outlook
[edit]Spain's stance, along with concerns voiced by Italy, Belgium, and Slovakia, led to intense internal negotiations. NATO diplomats reframed key summit language—from “we commit” to “allies commit”—to accommodate dissent while preserving the integrity of the agreement.[10] Sánchez asserted that Spain “never blocks NATO but fulfills its responsibilities” and emphasized its ongoing capabilities under the 2.1% model.[11]
Broader implications
[edit]Spain’s challenge highlights a growing tension in NATO between national fiscal priorities and unified security commitments. While Eastern European nations and the UK broadly support the 5% escalation, Spain argues that its defense capabilities—backed by personnel, deployments, and industry—are achievable without a fixed GDP percentage.[12]
This dispute has also underscored deeper EU–NATO dynamics: Spain pointed to its broader European defense strategy, suggesting that the EU’s consolidated defense investment frameworks should be prioritized over unilateral NATO spending mandates.[12]
Future outlook
[edit]A formal review in 2029 will assess whether Spain, exempt under the 5% rule, has delivered on capability and readiness goals aligned with alliance needs. If Spain fails to uphold these obligations, it risks further diplomatic isolation within NATO and potential U.S. political or economic pressure.[11]
The conflict reflects enduring challenges in balancing allied solidarity with individual countries’ fiscal and political contexts, at a time when NATO seeks to adapt to resurging great-power threats.[11]
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ a b c Gray, Andrew; Siebold, Sabine; Bayer, Lili; Cantero, Ana; Gray, Andrew (2025-06-23). "NATO agrees to higher defence spending goal, Spain says it is opting out". Reuters. Retrieved 2025-06-25.
- ^ Heer, Jeet (17 February 2025). "Trump's Mafia Shakedown Might Destroy NATO—if We're Lucky". The Nation. Retrieved 14 July 2025.
- ^ Naishadham, Suman (23 January 2025). "Por qué el gasto militar que pide Trump podría resultar difícil para el que menos gasta en la OTAN". APNews.
- ^ a b "Spain rejects NATO's 5% defence spending hike as 'counterproductive'". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2025-06-25.
- ^ a b "Pedro Sánchez anuncia un acuerdo con la OTAN en medio la crisis por el caso Koldo". Tiempo Argentino. 23 June 2025.
- ^ Castro, Irene (25 June 2025). "Sánchez se reafirma en que el 2,1% de gasto militar es suficiente pese a las dudas de la OTAN: "No es arbitrario"". eldiario.es.
- ^ a b Mason, Jeff (2025-06-25). "Trump says Spain will pay more in trade deal after refusal to meet NATO defense spending targets". Reuters. Retrieved 2025-06-25.
- ^ "Spain Claims Exemption After NATO Agrees 5% Spending Deal". 23 June 2025. Retrieved 2025-06-25.
- ^ Meredith, Sam (25 June 2025). "Trump threatens tough trade deal for Spain after it refuses to meet NATO defense spending target". cnbc.com.
- ^ "Spain Claims Exemption After NATO Agrees 5% Spending Deal". Retrieved 2025-06-25.
- ^ a b c Liy, Carlos E. Cué, Macarena Vidal (2025-06-25). "Trump amenaza a España: "Es el único que se niega a pagar. Vamos a hacer que pague el doble"". El País (in Spanish). Retrieved 2025-06-25.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ a b Board, Editorial; Bunker, Nick; Reilly, Rick; Hesse, Monica (2025-06-23). "Opinion | NATO is worth paying for. Trump is right that Europe needs to do more". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2025-06-25.