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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015. It details findings from The Good Judgment Project.

A number of people participated in an IARPA tournament that encouraged forecasters to update forecasts in real time. The top performers on the 2,800 tournament were categorized as superforecasters based on their Brier score. The collective Brier score of superforecasters was 0.25, compared with a score of 0.37 for other forecasters. Some discussed superforecasters included Doug Lorch, Bill Flack, and Sanford Sillman (an atmospheric scientist). Superforecasters even "performed" 30 percent better than the average for intelligence community analysts who could read secret data.

When given intelligence tests, superforecasters scored well-above average, but not at the genius level (they scored above 80% of people).

Reviews

The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts.[1] According to The Wall Street Journal, Superforecasting is "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow.”[2] The Harvard Business Review paired it to the book The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg.[3]

Fareed Zakaria GPS, October 18, 2015 - “This week’s book of the week is Philip Tetlock’s ‘Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.’ If you’re wondering if there’s any way to predict an election, an economic crisis or even a war, Tetlock has an answer. He uses psychology and political science and a lot of common sense, and he taps into what’s often called the wisdom of crowds. This is a fascinating book and it will make you think.”

References

  1. ^ "Unclouded vision". The Economist. September 26, 2015. Retrieved September 26, 2015.
  2. ^ Zweig, Jason. "Can You See the Future? Probably Better Than Professional Forecasters". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 25, 2015. I think Philip Tetlock's "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," ..., is the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow."
  3. ^ Frick, Walter. "Question Certainty". Harvard Business Review. Retrieved 2015-09-26.


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