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TOCSIN is a research project within the Sixth Framework Programme of the European Commission. Its full title is TECHNOLOGY-ORIENTED COOPERATION AND STRATEGIES IN INDIA AND CHINA: REINFORCING IN EU DIALOGUE WITH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION.
The project identifies and assesses technology options for the reduction of GHG emissions in India and China and the conditions for a strategic cooperation on RD&D and technology transfer with the European Union, including the institutional architecture. TOCSIN analyzes incentives for the participation of developing countries (DCs) in post-2012 GHG emissions reduction strategies and technological cooperation. Finally, it evaluates how the Clean Development Mechanism and international emission trading improve the attractiveness of new energy technology options for India and China.
The research is structured around the use of an ensemble of models that are being coupled together via advanced large scale mathematical programming techniques. The models include a MARKAL/TIMES bottom-up techno-economic model, a multi-region computable generable equilibrium model of the world economy (energy technology), a multi-region integrated model (WITCH ) representing the effect of technology competition on economic growth, and a game theoretic framework to analyze self-enforcing agreements (i.e. agree¬ments that the signatories stick to even in the absence of a higher authority).
The project has seven work packages:
- Defining policy scenarios and RD&D cooperation,
- Bottom-up techno-economic modelling for India and China in the global context,
- Top-down CGE modelling and analysis for India and China,
- Coupling BU and TD models and designing game models,
- Effectiveness and acceptability of technology-oriented climate coopera¬tion with DCs,
- Dissemination activities,
The project started in January 2007. The project deadline is June 2009. Two dissemination workshops/conferences are foreseen in March 2008 in Venice, Italy, and in June 2009 in Beijing, China.
- École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne(EPFL), REME Lab, Switzerland (Coordinator);
- Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMVA), Public System Group, India;
- Tsinghua University, 3E Institute, China;
- Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU), Center of Game Theory, China;
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Italy;
- University of Cambridge, Electricity Policy Research Group, Great Britain;
- KANLO Consultants, France;
- ORDECSYS/C-ORDE, Switzerland.
Policy background and research objectives
In recent years, a large number of bilateral agreements on technology and scientific cooperation have been signed involving many countries worldwide. This includes the EU and China Partnership on Climate Change and the EU-India Initiative on Clean Development and Climate Change. There is therefore an increasing focus on international technological cooperation as a main way to address the climate change problem.
TOCSIN evaluates climate change mitigation options in China and India and the conditions for a strategic cooperation on RD&D and technology transfer with EU. The project identifies and assesses technology options that might significantly reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in China and India in key sectors (i.e. power generation, transport, agriculture, and heavy industry). It also defines the necessary institutional and organizational architecture that would stimulate technological cooperation. The research emphasizes the strategic dimension of RD&D cooperation, and the key role of creating incentives for the participation of developing countries (DCs) in post-2012 GHG emissions reduction strategies and technological cooperation. Finally it evaluates how the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and international emission trading (IET) might improve the attractiveness of new energy technology options for DCs, and thus contribute to stimulate RD&D cooperation and technology transfers toward China and India.
Objectives of the project
- To provide a detailed description of the available energy/technology options that might significantly reduce GHG emissions in China and India and their relative costs in comparison with EU and other OECD members (the possibility of endogenous technological learning (ETL) and the competition for innovation, expected in a world adapting to a new technology environment, being also analyzed).
- To define the possible self-enforcing international agreements on GHG emission abatement, taking into account their economic impacts, including terms of trade changes, as well as the possible gains of multilateral and bilateral collaborations, Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) and international emission trading (IET) in order to stimulate RD&D cooperation and technology transfers toward China and India.
- To promote capacity building for modeling activities in China and India. Researchers from China and India who joined this project will benefit from high level scientific cooperation with leading European researchers and will develop databases and models for China and India that will be fully compatible with the most recent developments in EU and America concerning BU and TD modeling for energy-environment policy analysis. This ensemble of compatible models will be of great help for the development of a consistent dialogue between the parties in post-Kyoto negotiations.
- Bosetti, V., C. Carraro and M.Tavoni (2008) "Delayed Participation of Developing Countries to Climate Agreements: Should Action in the EU and US be Postponed?", Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Working Paper N.70-2008.
- Bosetti, V. Carraro, C., Massetti, E., Tavoni, M. "International Energy R&D Spillovers And The Economics Of Greenhouse Gas Atmospheric Stabilization" . Working Paper 82, Milan: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. 2007
- TOCSIN project
- WITCH: A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model
- École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), REME Lab
- Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMVA)
- Tsinghua University
- Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU), Center of Game Theory
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
- University of Cambridge, Electricity Policy Research Group