Republic of China general election, 2016

Republic of China presidential election, 2016

16 January 2016 (2016-01-16)

Nominee Eric Chu James Soong Tsai Ing-wen Party Kuomintang People First Democratic Progressive Opinion polls 2015-09-14　KMT 33% (Hung) 13% 43% 2015-10-06　Apple Daily 29% (Hung) 15% 41% 2015-10-07　TVBS 29% (Hung) 10% 48% 2015-10-07　DMR 19% (Hung) 14% 42% 2015-10-13　TISR 21% (Hung) 12% 45%

Incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou (KMT)

General elections will be held in Taiwan to elect the 14th President, Vice President and members of the 9th Legislative Yuan on 16 January 2016.

Electoral system

Each presidential candidate has a vice-presidential running mate on the same ticket, to be elected using the first-past-the-post system. Due to term limits in the Constitution, incumbent president Ma Ying-jeou cannot seek re-election. This will be the sixth direct election to the presidential and vice-presidential posts, as these officers were previously indirectly elected by the National Assembly prior to 1996.

In a separate set of ballots, the 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan are elected by two methods: 73 are elected in geographical constituency using the first-past-the-post system, 6 are elected from two 3-member indigenous constituencies using the single non-transferable vote system. The remaining 34 are elected by closed list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency.

Presidential candidates

Party primaries

According to Article 22 of the President and Vice President Election and Recall Act, any political party that garnered 5% of the vote in the most recent national election for central government positions (President, Vice President or Legislative Yuan members) may nominate candidates without undergoing the process of garnering signatures. Parties fulfilling the criteria in the 2016 general election include the Kuomintang (KMT), Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) and People First Party (PFP).

Democratic Progressive Party

According to the Democratic Progressive Party protocols, presidential primaries are conducted via nationwide opinion polling. Registration was held between February 2 to 16, 2015. Tsai Ing-wen, party chair and former vice-premier, was the only candidate that registered, and thus nationwide opinion polling that were planned to be conducted between March 16 to 18, 2015 were cancelled. Tsai was duly nominated by the DPP on April 15, 2015.

Kuomintang

According to internal Kuomintang protocols, presidential primaries are conducted via a combination of party member vote with 30% weighting, and nationwide opinion polling with 70% weighting. Registration and petition were conducted between April 20 to May 18, 2015. Two candidates, including Hung Hsiu-chu, deputy Speaker of the Legislative Yuan; and Yang Chih-liang, former health minister, registered. Hung garnered 35,210 signatories in her petition, crossing the eligibility threshold of 15,000 signatories; while Yuang garnered only 5,234 signatories, nullifying his registration. The party member vote was cancelled because Hung was the only eligible candidate. Nationwide opinion polling were conducted between Jun 12 to 13, 2015; with equal weighting between approval rating and general election polling. Hung garnered an average of 46.204% in the nationwide polling, crossing the eligibility threshold of 30%, and was nominated on 19 July 2015. However, her nomination was dropped and replaced with party chair Eric Chu during the KMT Special Convention on 17 October 2015. Some have alleged that this process was undemocratic.

Taiwan Solidarity Union

Although the Taiwan Solidarity Union is eligible for presidential candidate nomination, on June 29, 2015, party chair Huang Kun-huei publicly announced that the TSU will not be nominating a presidential candidate, and instead will support the DPP's presidential bid.

People First Party

James Soong, party chair of the PFP, announced his presidential bid on August 6, 2015.

Presidential candidate petition

According to article 22 of the president and vice president election and recall law, candidates that are not nominated by a political party, may register as a candidate via a petition signed by at least 1.5% of the number of eligible voters during the most recent Legislative Yuan election.

• Nori Shih Ming-teh, former chair of the Democratic Progressive Party and legislator, declared his candidature late on May 21, 2015. He ended his attempt at candidacy in September.
• Hsu Jung-Shu, chair of the People Party, and former Democratic Progressive Party legislator, declared her candidature on July 7, 2015, and has received support from the Taiwan Progressive Party, National Health Service Aliance, and Zhongshan Party.

Opinion polls

Polling organisation	Date(s) administered	Tsai Ing-wen DPP	James Soong PFP	Hung Hsiu-chu KMT	Eric Chu KMT	Undecided
Decision Making Research	24 Aug 2015	41.2%	15.0%	25.5%	N/A	18.3%
Kuomintang	14 Sep 2015	43%	13%	33%	N/A	11%
Apple Daily	6 Oct 2015	40.92%	15.07%	29.28%	N/A	14.73%
TVBS	7 Oct 2015	48%	10%	29%	N/A	13%
Decision Making Research	7 Oct 2015	42.1%	14.1%	19.0%	N/A	24.8%
Taiwan Indicators Survey Research	13 Oct 2015	44.6%	12.0%	21.0%	N/A	22.4%
Cross-Strait Policy Association	18 Oct 2015	45.2%	13.8%	N/A	21.9%	19.1%

Note： * denotes polls that include other potential candidates.