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Thales of Miletus and JP Morgan
The former was a financial astrologer; the latter once said "Millionaires don't use astrology; billionaires do". The mundane article on Thales doesn't mention why a philosopher would predict the weather and take a risk on such a prediction nor what methods led to this prediction. I am placing this here to see if anyone will add this information, at least to this page; the reason is because I would like to measure Wiki's bias. 18.104.22.168 (talk) 02:20, 22 May 2013 (UTC)
- Can you provide reliable sources, or should we take this on faith? Smallbones(smalltalk) 03:01, 22 May 2013 (UTC)
Template:REQUEST EDIT and placement in Main Section of that which meets your standards!
While a technical analyst at Merrill Lynch in New York, Arch Crawford read about using astrology in market analysis in the Wall St Journal (April 16, 1963 - Page ONE). There is an excellent article "Astrology, Financial Applications of Astronomical Cycles" in The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators (2nd edition, 2003, McGraw Hill, pp. 108-113) by Robert Colby, CMT Several Financial Astrologers are mentioned. The first major newspaper story about Crawford was written by financial columnist Dan Dorfman January 15, 1981, for his flagship Chicago Tribune, syndicated in the Washington Post, NY Daily News and 91 other locals. "Since first publishing his New York based letter in June 1977, Crawford, once an assistant to Merrill Lynch technical research chief Bob Farrell, has issued 10 buy and sell signals on the market. Nine of them were right on target. And on the one occasion he was wrong, the Dow went about 40 points against him." This was followed by a 'puff piece' on Page ONE of the Wall St Journal February 17, 1981. His first major TV appearance was on ABC's 20/20 on March 4, 1981 He was interviewed weekly by Ron Insana on Financial News Network (cable out of Southern California) during the mid 1980's and predicted the 1987 crash on his show. In the Wall St Journal for Monday, August 10, 1987 HOW MUCH POWER IS LEFT in the BULL?: "Archibald Crawford, an investment newsletter writer in New York City, believes the heavens dictated the start of the bull market in 1982. And now he's expecting some momentous happenings in the galaxy to signal an eventful close in the weeks ahead. Among the powerful events in the sky, Mr. Crawford says, there will be a solar eclipse on the fall equinox and five planets will be lined up in a tight conjuntion for six days. 'We'll be in for a decline," he declares, adding that celestial events 'call what is going to happen, and then a real event comes along and acts as an 'apparent' cause'. Whatever the causes of great market moves, the stars may be as good as any." Crawford says he later called the author of the piece, Beatrice E. Garcia and ask why she had called on him for a quote. "You were the only person I could find who was bearish." "Arch Crawford sees Long Term Bear Market" filled the entire page one of The National OTC Stock Journal on August 24, 1987, the day of the highest close in major market indices, prior to the crash, in other words, the TOP DAY. "Crawford picks the market top for August 24,'give or take three days. His recommended investments, for the time being, are Treasury Bills, gold and put options." The day after the crash low, Wednesday, October 21, 1987, Dick Davis wrote in the MIAMI HERALD, Business News section heading: "Some market analysts saw the crash coming" wrote this brief paragraph: "Arch Crawford's The Crawford Perspectives from New York has made some uncanny market calls. In early August he said: 'Our long-term sell signal is set in stone. Be out of all stocks by August 24th, from which point we expect a horrendous crash.' August 24 marked the Dow high of 2722." The Wall Street Journal, Wednesday, March 23, 1988 Book Review by Larry Wachtel, Sr.VP of Prudential Bache Securities: "A Fool and His Money" by John Rothchild "And most intriguing of all is Arch Crawford who measures the market by the position of the planets and proved to be Mr. Rothchild's most successful savant." New York Times, Sunday, March 12, 1995, Financial Section Page one (entire page with pic). Headline: "Markets Rise and Fall, but He's Always Looking Up" by Anne Matthews - - - "In the unruly world of alternative finance, Mr. Crawford is as buttoned-down as they come, meeting fellow market-cycle enthusiasts for cocktails and forecasting at the Princeton Club, delivering painstaking addresses on astrological methodology to the Market Technicians Association. 'But there's always a bunch in the back of the room,' he acknowledges, 'growling that I'm a travesty of justice." ..."Asked if they would ever consult his hot line, a dozen traders and analysts had the same firm reply, Yes, all agreed - but from a pay phone." KIPLINGER'S Personal Finance Magazine, July 1997 The Lure of MARKET TIMING (pp 36-39)by Manuel Schiffres "In fact, over the past five years, the timing advice of only one market-timing newsletter among several dozen timers tracked by Hulbert Financial Digest has outpaced the simple strategy of buying and holding the Vanguard Index 500 fund, which mimics the S&P 500. The big claim to fame of that letter, Crawford Perspectives, and it's editor, Arch Crawford, is having called the crash of 1987 with total precision. Crawford also forecast the start of the 1997 correction--February 18--to the day." THE AGE, Melbourne Australia September 24, 2001. "Guru's eerie forecast from stars, IChing" by Brian Hale "The only man who did predict a market plunge and terrible events including war around September 11 is not very hopeful. Arch Crawford, the ex-Wall Street master technical analyst who now combines stock charts with astrological charts in his 'Crawford Perspectives' newsletter, told his clients back in August to go 100 per cent short - to sell every share they owned and sell just as many that they didn't own with the intention of buying them back when prices fell and keeping the difference. Sitting in the sun in the park on the day before the World Trade Centre attack, I almost fell off the bench reading his just-arrived September newsletter. The headline was "Crash by October 5th?" and the text referred back to his prediction in May last year of a "bloody bear market" in six to 18 months. "We are faced with the THE DARKENING OF THE LIGHT (his capital letters)according to a much older Chinese tradition, The I Ching, or Book of Changes," wrote Arch just before the terrorist attack." "Henceforth, the surprises will manifest on the Dark side of the Force!" "He predicted planetary movements on September 8 would be "leading as to war", [quote was supposed to be “leading us to war” but came out as above] that the ninth would be another turning point for markets and that financial markets could be occulted (hidden) on the 10th to 12th. ... "For the US - WARLIKE! ACTION! Affects $US on world markets!" Arch's reasoning for the market predictions was based partly on technical analysis - which suggested that a "cascading capitulation phase" was possible - and largely on looking at the positions of the stars and planets." He predicted planetary movements on September 8 would be 'leading as to war', [quote was supposed to be “leading us to war” but came out as above] that the ninth would be another turning point for markets and that financial markets could be occulted (hidden) on the 10th to 12th."
Arch Crawford is very well known, widely followed and a regular commentator on financial television,etc. Arch uses both financial astrology and technical analysis in his work, although he is better known for his financial astrology work. Sposer (talk) 15:51, 18 April 2011 (UTC)
- You'd still need some sort of reference to show that he is well known for his financial astrology, not just the blurbs on him produced by the places where he is a "regular commentator," e.g. Fox News has lots of non-notable news commentators. Smallbones (talk) 01:04, 19 April 2011 (UTC)
- If that is the rule, it is going to be hard. However, I think you are requiring something that may not really be totally reasonable. Financial Astrology is accepted in far fewer camps than other forms of financial markets analysis (I am not arguing the efficacy or validity of Financial astrology here in any way, but rather the notability of Mr. Crawford), so finding a reference that calls him "well known" that is not tied to his appearances on TV or at seminars and events, will be quite difficult. I understand that it is difficult to separate out publicity appearances from appearances, because the person is well known and respected, but at some point, when the person is regularly quoted, it becomes meaningful. I know that counts on google are not acceptable, and I agree with that, but I am quite sure you will find his name pops up probably more often than any financial astrologer out there. That said, I am not going to edit war and we should seek a larger consensus on this.Sposer (talk) 01:51, 19 April 2011 (UTC)
- I think mentions in a couple of the standard financial news sources would be enough, e.g. the WSJ, Financial Times, the Economist, Business Week, or a few others of similar quality. I've searched and can't find much Peter Brimlow on Market Watch - if you use this I'd think that you have to mention that he very specifically predicted that all hell was going to break loose (down) on July 26, 2010. I checked quickly and it looks like the DJIA was up a couple hundred. There was a quicky interview in Forbes without any analysis. I didn't see anything else. Smallbones (talk) 03:35, 19 April 2011 (UTC)