Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Archive 1

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

Forecasts

Are there any official predictions as to what the hurricane season is going to be like next year (from the NHC or anyone else)? Ya'Aseh Shalom 19:01, 3 November 2005 (UTC)

Do you often predict how the next football season will be while we're in week ten of this one? No, no one has nor can make such a prediction. The first useful predictions will occur in March, I think that's when Dr. Gray and the NHC issue their first preseason forecasts. --Golbez 19:21, 3 November 2005 (UTC)
I thought Dr. Gray made a first prediction in December? CrazyC83 01:22, 9 November 2005 (UTC)
I think he does, because he made 2005's (somewhat off :D) prediction on December 3rd, 2004. When was his first prediction made for the 2004 season? Was anyone working on these articles back then to know? (the earliest date I can find for the creation of the 2004 season's article is June 13th, 2004; interestingly I found this edit of 1995's season, possibly the first attempt to make a hurricane article like this) -- RattleMan 06:10, 10 November 2005 (UTC)

Anyway, my current prediction is 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes in 2006. CrazyC83 05:45, 11 November 2005 (UTC)

Dr. Gray's 2006 Forecast

It was released today, and can be found here. -- RattleMan 22:04, 5 December 2005 (UTC)

Seems to make sense; I am holding on to my 16/9/6 prediction for now though (one less tropical storm, one more major hurricane). I do expect another costly season in 2006, and possibly another deadly season (although that is definitely preventable by local emergency officials). I think the ACE will be a record high (due to several long-lasting Cape Verde storms) and it will be the second costliest season on record (behind 2005, ahead of 2004), mainly due to one storm (Helene). CrazyC83 03:13, 6 December 2005 (UTC)
I changed mine, but still, I think the rhyming named Hurricanes will be major. Still, I mostly agree with ^ Hopefully everyone will be taking a hurricane seriously this time since they saw Katrina. If they don't, or never heard about Katrina, they might as well be stupid) It's going to be a lovely winter and spring, unless we have a case of either Alice2 or Ana. That would be creepy. Bloing 9:11, 6 December 2005 (UTC)
Are you psycic? We just got an Alice2 (Zeta) now all we need is an Ana (Alberto). -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 22:33, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
What the heck? This is creepy!!! Why is it me that has to be psychic!! -hides behind spork- Don't ask me why this happens. I don't know how that happpened, and I hope to the Atlantic that I get the next one wrong! >_> Bloing  19:46, 2 January 2006 (UTC)

Zeta and the Timeline

What if Zeta dissipates in January? Whould its dissipation entry be in the 2005AHS or this article? -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 22:40, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

How about mentioning it on both? It is not every year that a tropical cyclone spans two years. Titoxd(?!? - help us) 22:45, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
I was thinking the same - list Zeta's events on both pages. Zeta might dissipate before the new year, of course. --AySz88^-^ 22:46, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
I'm looking at what was done with Alice2 - and the storm entry was on the 1954 page, with some mention on the 1955 page. If we decide to put both on this page, we should do the same for Alice2. CrazyC83 23:55, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
I think that the entry on 2005 and a mention here sounds the most reasonable. --Patteroast 08:06, 31 December 2005 (UTC)

What if...

...this season reaches Zeta? Will they use Zeta twice in one year? 1954 was a fluke; Alice was named as a 1955 storm. - Cuivienen 05:38, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

Let's not think about that. --Golbez 06:12, 1 January 2006 (UTC)
Yeah it is pretty early to think about that, and didn't Dr. Gray predict we wouldn't resort into the Greek Alphabet this year, but Cuivienen you do got a point, Dr. Gray always raises his predictions in April or May. Fishhead 12:37, 1 January 2006 (UTC)
He predicted we weren't going to go into the Greek Alphabet last year too. ;) - Bootstoots 16:59, 1 January 2006 (UTC)
What if a tropical depression formed on December 31 and strengthened into the Tropical Storm on January 1? How would it be named? Bsd987 16:12, 1 January 2006 (UTC)
I believe that it would still be named off the 2005 list, as it would be numbered as a 2005 storm. However, there is no precedent for that, so it is merely a guess. Reaching Zeta again in 2006? I hope not, but it certainly isn't impossible!!! CrazyC83 16:56, 1 January 2006 (UTC)
They probably have a procedure for this; ask them. --Golbez 02:14, 2 January 2006 (UTC)
If a cyclone became a depression in one year but a storm in the next it would probably be named from the latter year's list. Why? Because, in the Pacific, storms are named based on the basin in which they strengthen, not on their initial basin. The most notable example would be Hurricane Iniki, which became a depression in the EPac but a storm in the CPac. - Cuivienen 03:46, 2 January 2006 (UTC)
You're sorta right, but basins are different. To everyone, let's say TD 30 formed in 2005, but waited until 2006 to become a named storm. It would get a name off the 2006's name list. Look at Hurricane Alice. Operationally, it was treated as a tropical depression, but was not a significant tropical cyclone until January 1st. It changed in post-analysis, but Alice received a name from the next season's list (1955). The same occurrs with hurricanes and tropical storms. Alex from 2004 was a July TD, but an August TS. Kate from 2003 was a September Hurricane but an October major hurricane. Hurricanehink 04:24, 2 January 2006 (UTC)
OK, thanks! Bsd987 15:11, 4 January 2006 (UTC)
Actually, as it would be marked 30L.NONAME 2005, wouldnt it take a 2005 name as long as it reaches storm strength? NSLE (T+C) 06:50, 9 January 2006 (UTC)
Hey, Bootstoot in that case we would reach Rho. Fishhead 22:09, 11 January 2006 (UTC)

List

Anyone think they'll extend the list, so that like Pacific lists, there's an X, Y, and Z? 67.68.64.37 11:47, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

I don't know, and that's beyond the scope of this talk page. --Golbez 15:08, 3 January 2006 (UTC)
If we actually knew, it'd be in an article already. -- Cyrius| 18:13, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

Current events

Shouldn't we replace the "future" tag with the "current" tag? --Freiberg, Let's talk!, contribs 00:12, 15 January 2006 (UTC)

The season doesn't start for months yet. NSLE (T+C) 00:47, 15 January 2006 (UTC)
But one storm already existed during the year 2006. I think we should put the "current" tag on as soon as a strom forms or June 1, whichever comes first. --Freiberg, Let's talk!, contribs 21:22, 15 January 2006 (UTC)
The storm was from 2005 ;) NSLE (T+C) 01:15, 16 January 2006 (UTC)