Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Chris

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03L.Chris[edit]

Powerful wave coming off Africa now. It already looks really good! Could this be the first Cape Verde storm of 2006? (Fortunately, its current latitude would most likely make it a mid-Atlantic fish) CrazyC83 22:20, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

Whoa! I could swear I saw some convection. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 22:28, 26 July 2006 (UTC)

The is a low pressure with this thign and also u can see turning in the wave--65.2.155.104 22:11, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

So we're expecting a Cat 4 or Cat 5 Chris from this? Irfanfaiz 06:23, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
99L.INVEST (1)[edit]

Now up on NRL! -- RattleMan 23:31, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

If they see it happening that far east, development is really possible. CrazyC83 00:18, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
The 5:30 EDT TWO says it's already gotten some organization going:

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

AySz88\^-^ 00:22, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I think this could ultimately become a dangerous hurricane next week...this needs to be watched VERY closely. CrazyC83 00:27, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Wow, that blob is actually pretty big... (Loop) - it doesn't look unhealthy at all if it keeps all that convection in the same place. —AySz88\^-^ 00:32, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
(Actually, it's just a result of the kind of projection they used...) —AySz88\^-^ 01:24, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Most of the models are showing a fish storm. However, this early they can't really be relied on. I'd give it a 60% chance of development, and if it does, look out! CrazyC83 00:41, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
You can never be sure if a Cape-Verde system will be a fish-spinner. This one definitely needs to be watched closely, since conditions are gradually becoming more favourable for development. Pobbie Rarr 00:59, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Don't be so sure, I see that it will eventually enter into an area that is unfavorable for development. I have been tracking all three of these waves for the past 48 hours on my computer and I don't think there is too much to be intr=erested in as far as this becoming a dangerous storm. Provided that is moves slow enough and isn't destroyed by wind shear i think it very well could become a strong tropical storm, maybe a minimal hurricane. But, hell, somethin like 48% of all predictions are wrong or off by a little.O-TOWN'S AT 01:29, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
I see some developement coming soon. But I wonder if this may become Chris. My guess is that it has a 50% chance of doing so. Alastor Moody (talk) 02:03, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Also if you go to nasa.gov, a website shows that hurricane can be prone to develope from Cape Verde. Alastor Moody (talk) 02:07, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

WOW! I had noticed this yesterday but i just found out that its an invest! It has a very good spin, but its at 8.5N and drifting a bit south of west. That would be a record for the altantic!!! (I think) YOU CAN DO IT! (Yes, I realize the storm can't hear me) From the 10:30 TWO:

"A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS." -Winter123 02:19, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Responding to myself: No, actually Isidore of 1990 formed at 7N. But this will definitely approach that. It looks promising. -Winter123 02:27, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

People, hurricanes are not good. Stop cheering. Chacor 02:57, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Hear, hear. It's not a good thing when these things form. Especially if they become dangerous. Dangerous is "people get killed," not "I like to live dangerously" off a James Bond movie. Sigh. Mike H. I did "That's hot" first! 03:18, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
???? This discussion caught my attention. Hurricanes are not "good" or "not good". They simply are. Weather has been around a lot longer than people. There's nothing wrong with cheering a perfectly normal wonder of nature. So says I. --Elliskev 20:12, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Hello Chris! --Revolución hablar ver 02:50, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Uh...? NRL nor NHC have it yet. Chacor 02:57, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Maybe Revolucion's just expressing his anticipation that this will definitely become Chris? Though, it's been cohesive and CDO-like for aabout 18 hours now.
This far to the east and away from land, I think it's fine or even healthy to appreciate these storms as amazing or incredible or majestic machines of nature and hope to see one; I think one should hope they're just magnificent/beautiful/awesome fish-spinners, though. —AySz88\^-^ 03:39, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, I agree with all, you might as well be getting ready to fire up the Chris page, no doubt this ting is showing signs of rapid development. However, if it continues on it's forcasted track it will have problems staying alive in the near future depending on how strong it is. O-TOWN'S AT 03:43, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
I don't think we should create it immediately, especially right at the start. Maybe when it starts threatening land. Chacor 03:51, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Maybe but this is a feature people are gonna be interested in, what i mean't is get it ready to launch cause there is a 100% chance (as of right now) that in 12-18 hours we'll be looking at either a strong version of Tropical Depression 3 or a brand new Tropical Storm Chris!O-TOWN'S AT 03:54, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
This thing definitely looks much healthier than it did before. It almost looks like a tropical depression. bob rulz 03:57, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Well, I like WATCHING hurricanes. I do not like seeing the destruction they cause. Katrina Made landfall last year the day before my birthday- Practically every channel was showing Flooding in New Orleans ON MY BIRTHDAY. Not that enjoyable. What WAS enjoyable was watching it blow up in the gulf OVER WATER on the days leading up to my birthday. I'd say this storm has a good chance of becoming a hurricane, and a good chance of being ripped apart by the trough in the West Carribbean/Bahamas. -Winter123 03:58, 28 July 2006 (UTC)


GFDL from 0728/00Z does not develop it anytime soon. Chacor 07:27, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Well, I've found that models often dont pick up on storms unless there is a well defined center. This does not have one... yet. Just a broad one. -Winter123 07:37, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
I'm not trying to be like anybody in particular, but I say this wave (or Chris) may become a big Atlantic storm sooner or later bound to attack anyone in its path. Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 08:15, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Uh, first of all let me explain my comment. It was just acknowledging that this was likely going to develop into Chris, and I wasn't saying it in a welcoming way. Second of all, to the guy who said that "it is good hurricanes kill people and destroy things, that is what they are designed to do", that is an extremely ridiculous and I must say offensive comment to those who have lost loved ones in hurricanes. It is NOT good they kill people and destroy things (tho the killing part is much worse than the destruction). Also, hurricanes aren't "designed" to do anything, because there is no intelligent force guiding their "actions", this is science not religion. Hurricanes are governed by the laws of nature. --Revolución hablar ver 11:24, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

NOTE: Senseless discussion has been moved here.

That's what I was trying to say. Now let's stop this senseless argument (Are hurricanes bad? Anyone in their right mind would say yes.) before it needs a seprate talk page and let's get back to the subject at hand. The thing looks really good on sattelite imagery and should develop real soon. Although, history tells us that the storm may have to be further north to develop. If it does develope though, would it be the first real "Cape Verde Storm" since Emily?guitarhero777777 15:38, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Well thats an easy question to answer, no. Irene was a Cape Verde hurricane according to its TCR. Personally I'm of the opinion that this discussion of 99L is too off topic in itself, saying "I think it will be Chris" is going too far as that does not matter to the maintenance of this page and WP isnt a discussion forum...--Nilfanion (talk) 15:51, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
TD19 was a Cape Verde storm... íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 16:01, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Um... what? Anyways, This thing is looking real good today... -Winter123 18:28, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
If you're saying what to me, I said what I said because guitarhero7... that Emily was the most recent Cape Verde Storm (CVS). But there was also Irene, Maria, and TD19. Therefore, TD19 is the most recent CVS. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 18:32, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I think this is the longest invest discussion we've ever had. We might have to archive it in its own page. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 18:32, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Currently, 99L (AoI, Part 1, Part 2 and Offtopic added up) is 25KB big. I believe, as it says in comment brackets, that the requirement for an archive is 32KB. ("<!-- NOTE: Only put here if the entire discussion exceeds 32 KB -->") Chacor 10:18, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
After Beryl got archived as a separate archive, I started thinking, "Not all storms can be archived like that, some have to be archived using the Monthly archives", so I initiated the 32 KB rule, as that's the size an article is recommended to be below. I now think that might not be enough, and have raised it to 50 KB. Thoughts? -- RattleMan 13:05, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Models showing development. Track, Intensity (Note: These links are continuously updated) --Holderca1 19:05, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

I agree with the CLP5 -Winter123 19:51, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
That makes you a "no skill" forecaster then, lol. CLP5 (actually CLIPER5) is the baseline climatology model and it ignores the current state of the atmosphere (the equivalent model for intensity is SHIFOR5 (SHF5)).--Nilfanion (talk) 20:14, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
We have a Numerical weather prediction article in need of love, then... Titoxd(?!?) 20:38, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Actually, I think you want Tropical cyclone prediction model. :) It needs some love too, though. (Agh, I can't prioritize all these articles!) —AySz88\^-^ 21:09, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
99L.INVEST (2)[edit]

NOTE: This discussion was split at this point to make it easier to edit/carry on a discussion.

The XTRP has the most interesting path of all - landfall in Guyana! Does this particular model have a dodgy reputation or something? Pobbie Rarr 01:20, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
XTRP means extrapolation, which is really just a representation of the storm's current motion. It's not a model at all. —AySz88\^-^ 01:29, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
Ah. Pobbie Rarr 01:55, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
Might be a stupid question.. but can you guys tell me a link to the models? .. and an added note.. if a discussion on a TROPICAL WAVE .. just because its from Cape Verde are becoming this long.. think about how long a discussion on a katrina-like hurricane would be this year -Tcwd 02:17, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, I can see it now.... "MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK (36)", lol.
Or would it be "CAPTAIN HURRICANE KIRK (36)"? :P Bad, I know, but I had to. I have a strong feeling that will be a looooooong discussion, full of PAINFULLY bad puns. Maybe not 36 sections, but probably 4 or 5.
Back on topic, now I agreee more with the BAMD. The main circulation near 41W 9N has a blowup of convection tonight. -Winter123 02:31, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
We shouldn't have extremely long discussions for a tropical wave again due to there being a lack of a moral argument. This storm, however, I expect to be a Carribean monster storm.(Same with Kirk, too, except that is East Coast of U.S.).The models may not agree with me, but it's just a gut feeling. Definitely, if it grows, it will happen within the next 24 hrs. guitarhero777777 06:26, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

I'm not sure if 99L.INVEST will develope because it seems to be heading straight towards northern South America which may prevent further development; also if wind shear continues, this wave may never develope. Alastor Moody (talk) 08:05, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

It will probably curve northward soon. Chacor 08:35, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
I don't see this thing making into Chris. There is just so much Shear in the vicinity RoswellAtup 09:38, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
Sigh... there's no more to expect from this system RoswellAtup 09:59, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
It has still a chance. Now we need to watch if the convection persits the whole day, if so, this could be TD3 soon. -- WmE 10:48, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
The NHC is sufficiently concerned about this system now that it has a Danger Area on the charts for it.--Nilfanion (talk) 12:45, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

I'm not sure if I'm looking at the right wave, (because last time I looked there were like 3 waves in that area) but one of those waves near the same area has a well defined low pressure with it, and convection is begining to near the center. I guess that's what we're talking about. If it would just get some convection we would have TD3 on our hands. →Cyclone1 13:09, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

The NHC forecasts conditions to become greatly more favorable very soon. →Cyclone1 13:39, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
Shear is favorible, but too much dry air. Once it gets in the caribb. shear is supposed to increase, I heard. It has no chance as of now though. -Winter123 18:30, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

Well, if 99L goes into the Carribean Sea, it may approach doom because although the waters are warm enough, shear and dry air may prevent some developement. But I expect for the most is that 99L may become a short lived TD3, if convection bursts take over. Alastor Moody (talk) 21:05, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

99L now seems to be weakening (according to infared satellite images). Alastor Moody (talk) 00:15, 30 July 2006 (UTC)

Looks almost gone, this will not develop. Irfanfaiz 12:23, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
How can you say something that bold when the NHC still says a TD could form? Conditions might not be terribly favorable right now, but down the road this thing could still develop. In fact, it doesn't look almost gone right now. There's still some convection, not to mention a fairly decent low-level structure. --Hurricanehink (talk) 12:41, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
Let's wait and see what happens when it enters the Carribean. Now there's very dry air around it and it's looking good for this bad conditions. It's to early to say this won't develop. -- WmE 14:40, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
Well, now most predictions take it north of the Caribbean, out of the dry air. Maybe this will develop. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:04, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) does extend to the north, so no, I don't think it'll escape the dry air... The TWO says that the Caribbean will be getting a lot of shear, too, so neither place is really good for it. The half-hour-early TWO (including the one in the Caribbean) still seems to say that the blob we're watching has a better shot than the Caribbean blob:

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT

525 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
AySz88\^-^ 15:20, 30 July 2006 (UTC)

Notice it says "Unfavorable for development." That doesn't mean the storm is going to dissapate, just that it's not going to strengthen. I believe this might form, just not right off. →Cyclone1 17:08, 30 July 2006 (UTC)

The "...will become unfavorable for development..." Carribean blob? It's not even an invest yet, according to NRL, so that probably has to happen first... —AySz88\^-^ 17:33, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
Oh, dang. Was that for the Carribean Blob? Oops, I thought it was for the INVEST. NEVERMIND!!! NEVERMIND!! That blob's on dissapation road. →Cyclone1 17:46, 30 July 2006 (UTC)

If you look at the NRL page, it shows 99L dosen't seems to have a good chance to develope or transit to a TD. It seems to be sort of disorganized. Alastor Moody (talk) 18:59, 30 July 2006 (UTC)

Yeah you're right, I guess. But you never know... seems like such a watse of an Invest. →Cyclone1 19:35, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
Whoa, whoa, whoa, wait, let's not close the book on this invest so fast... Look at the IR loop. Very nice low pressure is still there, as well as a mini convection blow up near the center at the end. After seeing this, I would say look out for a Chris pretty soon. →Cyclone1 19:48, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
Well, it is still forecast by the GFDL to strengthen, and the current images seem to show some convection. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 19:53, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
I know! Isn't it great!? →Cyclone1 20:01, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
Come on now, I see no such developement coming to his wave:-) IT IS GONNA DISSIPATE!!! Alastor Moody (talk) 20:48, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
I'm gonna laugh so hard when it forms, later tomorrow. →Cyclone1 20:52, 30 July 2006 (UTC)

That does it! If you wanto me I'll be in my user page! This thing seems to be getting more complicated than the western pacific basin. Alastor Moody (talk) 21:06, 30 July 2006 (UTC)

Wait, what just happened? Did Alastor Moody just storm out of the Atlantic page? Did i do something? ... I'm so confused!!!! →Cyclone1 21:13, 30 July 2006 (UTC)
Alastor, please bear in mind that you are no hurricane expert, and everyone is entitled to their own opinions. This is not "Alastor-is-always-right" hurricane season. Chacor 01:14, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

GFDL from 0730/18Z makes 99L a Category 1 hurricane. Chacor 01:26, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Possible... its organizing tonight! -Winter123 02:25, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
Conflicting information from the latest TWO.
THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
It seems to be organizing, though. Hurricanehink (talk) 02:29, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
I don't know, the little pops of convection kinda seem to be firing in a circular path, but the water vapor animation doesn't show a circulation connected with the movements of the convection. —AySz88\^-^ 03:24, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Dvorak T-numbers of 1.0/1.0 have been released. Previously this invest only had "TOO WEAK" attached. This is going to be interesting... -- RattleMan 06:14, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

And, contradictorily, the latest Tropical Weather Discussion paints a bleak outlook:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 12N55W 6N56W MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE EARLIER LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THIS WAVE HAS DISSIPATED. THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 15N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N53W 9N52W 11N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N52W 12N54W 11N57W 11N62W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE

THE SYSTEM TOMORROW IF NECESSARY.
Perhaps a chance after the new low center forms? But then it'd still have to get that to the surface... —AySz88\^-^ 06:21, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
Yeah there's still a chance... but 90L just formed. Were getting a Chris soon.. from what INVEST? Who knows? →Cyclone1 13:52, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
Getting more organized! →Cyclone1 15:25, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
That's not much convection at all (look at the size of it compared to surrounding landmasses). Also, quikscat says no surface circulation (as of an hour and 20ish minutes ago, if I have my timezone calculations right). —AySz88\^-^ 15:59, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
Sorry, I'm looking at the wrong label - that's 8-hour-old data. —AySz88\^-^ 16:01, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
If you ask me, it is getting extremely organized... IT JUST NEEDS A SURFACE LOW! SO CLOSE!!! →Cyclone1 16:03, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Dvorak numbers up to T1.5! -- WmE 19:23, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

The Tropical Weather Discussion from an hour and a half ago - the surface low from before is gone and is now the thing we're seeing is a trough! Rather bizarre.... I bolded the part that talks about the convection we're watching.

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 55W/56W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO 60/61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN REMOVED AND ANALYZED AS A TROF FROM 13N58W TO 18N56W. THIS CHANGE WAS MADE DUE TO LOW/MID CLOUD MOTIONS AND WIND OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SUGGESTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS BECOME DETACHED...AND IS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE NORTHERN TROF PORTION MOVING MORE WNW. THIS MAY BE REANALYZED AS A SINGLE/CURVED WAVE IN THE 18Z ANALYSIS BUT CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE FEATURES. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. SHIP...BUOY...AND CLOUD MOTIONS ABOUT 250NM EAST OF DOMINICA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W STILL SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TROF AXIS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

AySz88\^-^ 20:11, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Dvorak classifications are now up to 2.0/2.0 at 2345Z! -- RattleMan 00:40, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Where are you getting this info? I can't find it. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 00:42, 1 August 2006 (UTC)


03L.NONAME[edit]

Finally, with Dvorak classifications of 2.0 (found here, Icelandic), NRL has it as TD3! -- RattleMan 00:44, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Thank you and wow! THis is amazing. This might be a little like Hurricane Klaus or Hurricane Debby (2000). íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 00:49, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
I realise that it is almost certain that the NHC will have this as TD3 shortly. However, the NRL is not offical and this storm is not a TD until the NHC says so. See what happened with 16-E last year. The NRL decided it was a TS and called it Pilar in the picture shown there. However, the NHC did not do so. Please don't start the Named sections until the NHC has declared things in future.--Nilfanion (talk) 00:52, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Sorry to revert, but I think as long as the header doesn't say "Tropical Depression Three", then it's clear it isn't official. Chacor 00:54, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Fair enough, there just seems to be a pervasive first post mentality here these days.--Nilfanion (talk) 01:00, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
It could be worse - look what Alastor's doing over "07E.FABIO". Chacor 01:04, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

MUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! What did I tell you!? (scroll up) I KNEW IT WOULD FORM TODAY!! →Cyclone1 00:56, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Here will be the sandbox article to work from until it becomes a land-threatening named storm: User:CrazyC83/0306 CrazyC83 01:18, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
  • groans* :P

8:05 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion says the tropical wave has completely detached and moved on, and they have it at least back to a low instead of a trough. Since they already say only a slight increase will be needed, I'd expect TD3 for the 11 PM advisory unless it starts falling apart again. It seems an awfully long time until then, though...? —AySz88\^-^ 01:30, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16.5N 58.5W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAK CIRCULATION IS AT THE SURFACE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA FROM 15N-17.5N BETWEEN 56W-58.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. REGARDLESS IF THAT OCCURS...SHOWERS...TSTMS AND SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10-15 KT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. YESTERDAY THIS FEATURE WAS ANALYZED AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1011 MB LOW EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. SINCE THEN...IT HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE SFC DATA THAT THE LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE WAVE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE BUT SEEMS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W.

Tropical Depression Three[edit]

Confirmed by the NHC. Chacor 02:56, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

I don't see any confimation. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 02:57, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Nvm. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 02:58, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Oh dear, are we already discussing Tropical Storm Delta (see top and title of page)? —AySz88\^-^ 03:00, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
It's a mistake for re-using page headers; we all make those (they need a template to base them on). This was hastily done in the last two hours, remember... CrazyC83 03:02, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
It is on the NHC web site now. Please refresh your browsers. I have updated the timeline, but have no time to do more. --EMS | Talk 03:02, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
This system probably isnt going to do much. They don't even forecast it to strengthen and all of the models dissipate it within the next few days. Too much shear in the area. bob rulz 03:08, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
I think it will top out as a low-end tropical storm, unless the shear dissipates. We'll have Chris, but barely. CrazyC83 03:16, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
After a week of disscusion, a moral argument, an archived part of this discussion, speculation, spliting the invest discussion into two, and then some more, we finally have a tropical system. Its sort of wierd how everything exploded within one advisory (including E-Pac). guitarhero777777 03:37, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Wind speed table shows about a 50/45 chance of that happening.Reub2000 03:46, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

I think this will be Chris by tomorrow evening. I also think that ULL will move out of the way and that this may be a threat to the SE. -Winter123 05:30, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

35kts on NRL, but not Chris yet... --Ajm81 07:41, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chris[edit]

NHC has it as Chris now. --Guillaume Hebert 08:43, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

...and Tropical Depression Three finally becomes Tropical Storm Chris... Alastor Moody (talk) 09:10, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
That was fast. I think it will rapidly intensify to a MAJOR hurricane soon. Irfanfaiz 09:27, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Does it have a chance to become a hurricane? RoswellAtup 10:27, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
No not really, it's forecast to weaken considerably in 72 hours. -- WmE 11:11, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Water temperatures look amazing but i don't know about the wind shear though. Irfanfaiz 11:23, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
According to CIMSS, shear is about 10-20 kt in the area Chris is in now, but increases to the northwest. There's also lots of dry air out there. If Chris can become a hurricane, I'll eat my hat. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 12:42, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
The NHC now has it slowly strengthening to 55 kt by 96 and 120 HR. However, it is noted that this can only happen if Chris picks the best path between two ULL and MLLs, which is quite narrow. —BazookaJoe 13:06, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Chris might peak as a moderate Category 1 or a minimal Category 2. Irfanfaiz 13:14, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
No, that's a very bold prediction. Indeed, Chris would be lucky to even meet the NHC's forecast peak of 55 kt within the forecast period due to conditions. I don't think it'll be any more than a minimal tropical storm. Chacor 13:15, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Do you think Chris will enter the Gulf or hit the east coast? --Revolución hablar ver 17:32, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Hit the East Coast.guitarhero777777 18:00, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Oh, not again. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 18:03, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
I find it hilarious that a day or two after I start high school, I'll get out from Chris. I live in Florida, by the way. →Cyclone1 18:30, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
This storm is acting very similar to Andrew's early stages. Even the predicted tracks look the same. Let's hope it doesn't have the same fate. →Cyclone1 18:34, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Similar to Andrew? How so? Andrew formed way out in the ocean and travelled a much more northerly route. This is a lot more like Hurricane Jeanne than anything else, at least so far. —Cuiviénen 22:40, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Holy crap, look at the shear in the northern GOM!! -- WmE 18:36, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
It's a week and a half away from the Gulf... and where? →Cyclone1 19:07, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Recon just found a 60mph tropical storm! Here's the shear map I was referring to. -- WmE 19:22, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Are you serious? Where can you find that information? Is it on the NRL page? bob rulz 19:24, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
That shows favourable shear conditions all along Chris' predicted trajectory. I think the main hindrance to strengthening is dry air aloft. Anyway, just because this is forecast to remain a weak storm doesn't mean it won't do anything: what if it dumps lots of rain on Haiti? Pobbie Rarr 19:24, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Look here for the recon! -- WmE 19:28, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Is it that "D: 55 knots" thing in the "vortex data message" section? These things are so hard to read... bob rulz 19:30, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Yeah right, 55 knots estimated surface winds. -- WmE 19:32, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Chris is forecast (as of the 11AM 1AUG 5-day cone) to travel a much straighter line than most hurricanes. Wouldn't take much for it hit BOTH Miami and New Orleans... Wouldn't that be a wonderful sign for the coming season... Naraht 20:32, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Uh, 60mph? According to the public advisory, its only 45. That 60mph was taken at a higer elevation. →Cyclone1 21:19, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

NHC has just released an update saying 60 mph, and a new advisory was coming shortly. -- RattleMan 21:20, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Sweet! →Cyclone1 21:30, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Sweet indeed! ;) -- WmE 21:31, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, and it's now forecast to reach hurricane-strength by 72 hours. Pobbie Rarr 21:34, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Foreal?! Can you give me a link? →Cyclone1 21:36, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Scroll down: [1]. Pobbie Rarr 21:49, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Look at the 5-day cone!! That's not good at all! -- WmE 21:58, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Looks like they've upgraded the maps accordingly. It'll be interesting to see how it progresses as it gets nearer to Florida (and possibly the Gulf of Mexico). Pobbie Rarr 22:09, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Hurricane in 72? I think more like in 12 hours... CrazyC83 22:24, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

Right, CrazyC83. I now have such little confidence in intensity forecasts. I just use them to know if a cyclone has a better shot at becoming stronger or weaker. If Chris becomes a hurricane in 12-24, I will be terrified at what the rest of the season will bring. —BazookaJoe 22:37, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Looks like he is intensifying. Just wait and see, if you see an eye and winds are at hurricane strenght. Irfanfaiz 22:43, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Well, the way things are going right now, it looks like I might need to get ready to eat my hat, as I said before. :P --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 23:38, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, we're gonna need a picture of that if/when you do. —BazookaJoe 23:50, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Next Hurricane Rita anyone? --24.83.98.3 23:47, 1 August 2006 (UTC)
Unlikely, however it could become a major hurricane if conditions remain well. -- WmE 23:59, 1 August 2006 (UTC)

You know, i havn't heard of a 25-mile wide tropical cyclone before. Is this the worlds smallest tropical cyclone. I know Bonnie 04 and Tracy were small too. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 00:02, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

It's tiny, but a tropical storm with 25 miles of TC force winds is much less impressive than a category four with 30 miles of TC force winds (Tracy). →Cyclone1 00:08, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Where did you hear 25 miles wide? Chris looks massive IMO on satellite. Fabio in the E-Pac looks to be 25 miles wide to me. guitarhero777777 00:07, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

The NHC says that tropical storm force winds extend only 25 miles from the center. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 00:10, 2 August 2006 (UTC)


Look really close at this. You'll see it. →Cyclone1 00:10, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Oh, hey, Ice... Lol. →Cyclone1 00:12, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Forget I said anyhting. My mistake. guitarhero777777 00:24, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Breif little Wikilock there... anyway, I'm with you... It looks much to large for 25 miles. →Cyclone1 01:00, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Impressive is all I have to say. However I'm a little worried if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. That place is like a pinball machine, you can't not hit something. Now, if it hits NewOrleans area as a week hurricane or tropical storm ... what will it do to a fragile place? Not to mention that, but what will people DO in that area. They already know the horror of one hurricane and one government catastrophe, how will people react? SargeAbernathy 01:55, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

keep in mind that this is all speculation, and I'm hoping that it'll fizzle out in five days like the model runs suggest. SargeAbernathy 01:57, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

I'm going to say it's going to stay close to the projected path and brush the Florida Keys and it might become a threat for those living in the Gulf of Mexico. That's not entirely all good news. Douglasr007 02:42, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

It is forming an eye in infrared images. I'll get ready to eat up my shirt instead. LOL :P Irfanfaiz 05:50, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Is it the size of a tropical cyclone expands as it intensify? I don't expect a Floyd sized hurricane from this. Irfanfaiz 11:52, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Yes--the reason Chris was "small" was because winds dropped off rapidly outside of the center, but the storm itself was (and is) quite large. As outer areas reach tropical storm strength, Chris "grows", but the storm is no larger than previously. It now has a 75-mile radius of TS-force winds. —Cuiviénen 13:30, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Chris is stronger than I thought it would be by now. It's probably stronger than anyone thought it would be by now. I predict at least a category two and maybe, MAYBE a breif cateory three in the gulf. →Cyclone1 14:33, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

More like Category 4 or 5 if it enters the Gulf and hits the Loop Current... CrazyC83 16:28, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Not necessarily, it depends on the conditions in the gulf. With little shear and moist air everything is possible. -- WmE 16:40, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Oh, joy... →Cyclone1 16:43, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Hitting the loop current doesn't automatically mean a strong storm. If the wind shear is strong, then the storm may not strengthen at all once it's in there, or maybe even weaken. Remember, last year's big gulf storms hit the loop current with wind shear at almost zero. Right now, wind shear in the gulf is averaging 15 knots (20 mph) [2]...not that favorable for strenthening. Therefore, I will not be nearly as apocalyptic as others are being right now, but I will say that I am uncomfortable with the thought of an established hurricane marching intact into the Gulf of Mexico. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 17:14, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
I fully agree. →Cyclone1 17:28, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

NHC predicts a hurricane within 12 hours, with a 10% chance of a category three in 72 hours. →Cyclone1 17:57, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Woah, didn't expect it to look this bad. I think it will be a category 2-category 4 most likely. Hello32020 19:31, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

First time this year we get to see something other than "Less than 2%" in the Cat 4-5 column on the wind probability chart. Still just 5%, but that's still higher than what I'd like to see there.--65.94.14.234 21:43, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Oops, above comment is mine. --Guillaume Hebert 21:47, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Since they are expecting a hurricane within 12 hrs., then I am shocked that Chris's pressure rose at the 2pm advisory, but lowered slightly at the next one. i would expect it to be sub-1000 mbar by now. guitarhero777777 21:47, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

The latest forecast picture has it entering the Gulf!!! if it does then that could mean another Katrina on our hands? I don't want to think about that, considering how much warmer the Gulf usually is. --Revolución hablar ver 22:06, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Well, the dry air in the GOM is retreating, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Chris will bomb once it hits the Loop Current (which it may not even do, because the model consensus favors a more southerly track that may cause it to make landfall in Hispaniola and/or Cuba). Also, shear seems to be increasing along the forecast track, according to CIMSS. If it survives the shear and gets into the Gulf, Chris might strengthen into a Cat 1 or Cat 2, but it's still way too early to speculate at this point. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 22:20, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
I think this hurricane will have an impact similar to Rita. If it ever becomes a major hurricane. Irfanfaiz 22:37, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
Sorry to add, but if this thing is become monterous like Andrew. Duck!!!! Irfanfaiz 22:47, 2 August 2006 (UTC)
I smell a MONSTER brewing in the Atlantic. This Atlanticane could become a major hurricane and hit Texas. Alastor Moody (talk) 23:30, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Or it could go out to sea and not to anything. You never know. People, we should be keeping our own predictions to a minimum. None of us here are weather forecasters. This storm is still in its developmental stages, so anything can happen. Hurricanehink (talk) 23:37, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

I agree with Hurricanehink. We have a whole prediction subpage for us to vent on what a storm may or may not do. guitarhero777777 23:45, 2 August 2006 (UTC)

Agreed. I have archived whatever was before here, and let's forcus less about predicting the storm. Chacor 00:52, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
No more Hurricane Chris for now. Predictions call for a sub 74mph life for our storm, here. They have it crossing Cuba and entering the Gulf. I wonder what's gonna happen next. →Cyclone1 04:13, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Personally, I think it'll still reach hurricane status near the Bahamas. →Cyclone1 04:15, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

Anyone else notice that Chris's mid level circulation seems to be diving southward, while the low-level circulation is staying put? That's what it seems like on the radar. The storm is either dying, or re-organizing further south, which could definately throw a monkey wrench into forecasts. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Runningonbrains (talkcontribs) 04:38, 3 August 2006.

The "curse" of Chris strikes again? (Hopefully) Good kitty 04:53, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

If it came ashore in Cuba, probaly it will emerged into the Carribean Sea and continue to intensify. And probaly following a path similar to Lili or Opal. Irfanfaiz 05:17, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Bleh...i suppose signing is good too...
I don't know the organization of the storm at the surface, but that blob looks like its headed straight for Puerto Rico...maybe the first real blown forecast of the season?--Runningonbrains 05:20, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
With Chris decoupling as badly as it is, I'd say hurricane status is out of the question, at least for the next several days. As for the blob, it's associated with Chris's mid-level circulation, and has no surface circulation of its own unless it manages to develop one, but I'm not sure that'll happen given how strong the decoupled LLC looks. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 06:13, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
So what does this mid level circulation breaking off of Chris mean? Reub2000 13:52, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
it's basically dead. whenever you see a storm with the convection totally blown off of it like that leaving a core of wind, it probably won't reform. Joeyramoney 19:09, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
On this water vapor loop you can see some sort of air mass pushing at least the mid and upper levels of Chris to the south... What is that? —AySz88\^-^ 06:27, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Most likely, the area of high pressure immediately to the north of the storm. Titoxd(?!?) 06:49, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Conditions dosen't look to good for Chris to redevelop in the Atlantic. I don't know about the Carribean or the Gulf of Mexico. Irfanfaiz 10:50, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Sorry to add but Chris looks like he is falling apart in this image. [3] Irfanfaiz 10:53, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Intensity is only 40mph now. bob rulz 11:47, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
And this is very generous! This should be a depression right now. -- WmE 11:49, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Looks horrible here. NRL has it at 40 kt though - this shows how unrealiable NRL is. Chacor 11:52, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
It hasn't reached Cuba and its pretty weak. It will get ripped apart by the mountains there. Good kitty 14:32, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

It's better looking than Hermine was, though. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:28, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT
CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  IF
IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER.

Chris is pretty much dead, now. Chacor 14:43, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

Well, Chris sure showed us how to deny all predictions. Chris is over with. →Cyclone1 14:52, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
No not necessarily, I think this storm could reintensify, but we did think that the wind shear would take a toll on it back when it was still a tropical wave. Don't give up on it yet, but if it hits the high terrain of Cuba it is finished. However, if it meanders into the warm Gulf it WILL reintensify. Lets not forget Hurricane Andrew.ShanahanFan14 15:12, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
I agree, let's wait and see. This storm has been messing everyone around so far. Pobbie Rarr 17:48, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
But as for now, shear is wayyyyy to high. I think that Chris could try to reform over the Loop Current though. -- WmE 17:52, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

One other thing to remember - if it stalls over Hispaniola, it could be a devastating storm despite being just a remnant low...Haiti is incredibly prone to flooding. CrazyC83 18:11, 3 August 2006 (UTC)

That's what I mentioned the other day - a storm doesn't have to be powerful to be catastrophic. Jeanne was barely even a tropical storm when it was over Haiti. Pobbie Rarr 19:05, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Mm mmm mmmm mmmm mm. Toasty. This thing looks to be toast to me. Sure, it looks pretty on satellite but otherwise, it's just like the low spinning ahead of it: weak. - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 21:23, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Well, it has gotten a little more convection. íslenska hurikein [#12] (samtal) 21:29, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Bladeswin I agree, it's toast! -- WmE 21:46, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
I seriously think this will survive Cuba and reform in the GoM. It's a resillient storm that has been fighting shear since it came off the coast. -Winter123 21:56, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
I hope it will, because I was having a lot of fun saying that I was strengtthening into a hurricane (my name is Chris too). -- Chris Ccool2ax contrib. 22:13, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Oh, if it dissipates and i tought you were dead. LOL Irfanfaiz 22:17, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
That small amount of convection near the center, if it can persist, may mean Chris can survive. There may still be a hat-eating yet while in the Gulf of Mexico. :) —BazookaJoe 22:48, 3 August 2006 (UTC)
Well, nogaps redevelops it. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 00:31, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

Does anyone know what the shear forecast is for the Gulf of Mexico? Obviously this has important implications for Chris if he survives the journey... Pobbie Rarr 01:38, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

On IRC a few hours ago, I mentioned being worried about a little growing blip of convection, about 2115 UTC. Now that blob's covered the whole southeast quadrant of the storm. Unless the shear picks up again, Chris looks like it has a shot at surviving past the Bahamas (or worse). —AySz88\^-^ 01:55, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, there seems to have been an impressive burst of convection. However, it could get ripped apart completely by the mountains of Hispaniola. Nevertheless, it should dump several inches of rain over the region. As has been shown before, several inches of rain + Haiti = disaster. Pobbie Rarr 02:09, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
IF CHRIS REMAINS IN THE COL AREA... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO
AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Chris forecast now for landfall on Cuba as a 35-kt TS by 48 hours, and for a 40-knot TS by 120 hours. Chacor 03:07, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

40 kt in 120 hr is conservative if it has good luck with Cuba and it finds low shear in the Gulf. —BazookaJoe 03:10, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
It's a fighter, that's for sure. It looked like it was dying then it didn't look that bad. It still might have a chance of becoming a minimal hurricane in the Gulf.--Pikachu9000 03:13, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Atlantic storms hate dying, but so do a lot of people on death row and you see how that most often works out. Of course, making landfall is a death sentence for a storm anyway, but I think most of the people on the Gulf coast would much rather not be collateral damage in its demise. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 03:28, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

I hate to make unnessessary predictions, and I'm sure most models have it going straight into the Gulf or making landfall in the Carribean before going into the Gulf, but I have a strange feeling after looking at the track it has taken that, unless there is a high pressure system over the Bahamas I missed (I don't read those charts) that this storm will take a similar path to Andrew (except starting further South and making landfall in the same spot in Florida, but in the Southern tip of the Bahamas). Hopefully, if my track is correct (very low chance) the storm won't become a carbon copy of Andrew (nearly die, then rapidly intensify). Chris already has part one down if it survives the shear. guitarhero777777 04:13, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

Recon just found 53 kt flight-level winds (corresponds to 42.4 kt at surface level using the .8 conversion factor) during their last run. Also, the convection seems to be increasing in coverage, though there's nothing north and west of the center. Possible intensity increase at 5 AM? --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 06:10, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

I don't know. The storm looks like it's completely falling apart on satellite images. Look at the latest infrared satellite from NRL: [4]. Looks like it's actually splitting apart and possibly making landfall on Hispaniola. bob rulz 07:57, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
And apparently the 53 kt reading was found in a thunderstorm, and the recon wasn't able to find any winds higher than 35 kt in the rest of the circulation. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 09:02, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
And recon just reported 29 kt flight level winds in their latest vortex message. The convection's dying away, so I really don't see why the NHC kept this as a TS (despite my comment earlier, which I struck out). --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 09:51, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
If Chris comes back to a Tropical Storm, will it be Debby or still Chris? --Thelb4 14:32, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Chris retains its name now it has weakened to a tropical depression and will still be Chris if it strengthens. If the depression dissipates but later reforms and the NHC considers the new TD to be a continuation of Chris it will be called Chris, like what happened with Hurricane Ivan.--Nilfanion (talk) 14:35, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
And, oddly enough, Tropical Storm Chris in 1988 :) Hurricanehink (talk) 14:54, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

Looks like recon was unable to close off a center. 5 PM might be the last advisory for Chris. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 20:23, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

The curse of Chris strikes again? bob rulz 23:45, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Why? What did chris do before? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 23:47, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Every storm named Chris has never manged to reach hurricane status, expet once (and only briefly far from land). The Curse of Chris is a catchy phrase made by Jeff Masters SargeAbernathy 23:50, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
I see. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 23:58, 4 August 2006 (UTC)
Not as impressive as Beryl, which has been used 5 times without any of them ever reaching hurricane strength. —Cuiviénen 02:02, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
No offense, but that's one curse that can stay a curse. Or at least be broken far away from land. This Chris does not fit that description. However, as of now, it does seem to fit the description of 'dead meat'. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 02:57, 5 August 2006 (UTC)

The forcast looks like it has a Tropical Storm status once it's over the Gulf. [5] SargeAbernathy 23:50, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

I'll be in utter disbelief if Chris survives Cuba. The thing's barely alive as it is. Right now it's just a collection of scattered thunderstorms. When it finally reaches the Gulf of Mexico, I doubt there will be anything left to regenerate. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 02:49, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
I'll be in utter disbelief if it survives the next advisory. It looks like a tropical wave right now. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 04:23, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
As long as the NHC thinks Chris can regenerate into a TS I doubt they'll cease advisories. Chacor 04:29, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
If it does not have a closed circulation, then it is not a tropical cyclone and NHC will discontinue advisories. Only at that point will they do so. I can't see much of a closed circulation in this thing and more importantly there is next to no convection. If that convection does not redevelop soon, the storm is dead. It's just like a person whose heart stops beating and does not resume beating. I can almost hear the beep as Chris flatlines on his heart monitor... Rest in peace, Chris, it's been fun. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 05:02, 5 August 2006 (UTC)

I think they've stopped issuing advisories.guitarhero777777 06:32, 5 August 2006 (UTC)

Not yet, they're just no longer issuing intermediate advisories. The next advisory is due at 5 am AST. Chacor 06:48, 5 August 2006 (UTC)

Last advisory has been issued, Chris is forecast to dissipate just before reaching Cuba. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 08:38, 5 August 2006 (UTC)

I updated the article to reflect a "no longer active" state for Chris, but I haven't touched the Chris article, in case of (quite unlikely) regeneration. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 08:47, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
Oh well, so much for another Cat. 5 over the Gulf Loop Current! Chris joins the other lacklustre Chrises in hurricane heaven.
"THIS IS GOING TO BE SHORT AND SWEET."
Dr. Avila doesn't mince words. Pobbie Rarr 16:08, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
Remnants of Chris[edit]

Chris is gone from NRL. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 18:25, 5 August 2006 (UTC)

Uh oh, Chris is back on NRL again! --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 19:08, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
Mm hmm. I'm quaking in my boots. NRL tracks anything that moves out in the Atlantic. Probably wise, but such a tactic would lead to many false alarms. Looks a bit better on the satellite but that's as compared to last night. It's over Cuba, storms don't form on land. However, given how warm it is in the Gulf, I won't completely dismiss the possibility of regeneration. Stranger things have happened in the Atlantic, but it's not all that likely. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 21:29, 5 August 2006 (UTC)


Yeah, I suspect that the NRL won't get rid of Chris until he's gone completely. I'm surprised they actually took him down in the first place. Pobbie Rarr 22:24, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
Well, the convection has increased significantly, but it clearly looks like a wave or trough right now. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 22:38, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
Wouldn't it be reclassified as an Invest in that case? CrazyC83 22:43, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
Not necessarily; it is still the same system that was Chris. See, for example, Hurricane Ivan. --tomf688 (talk - email) 22:52, 5 August 2006 (UTC)
Looks pretty good on the sattlite and IR.--24.83.98.3 01:46, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
Looks nice, but looks don't mean a whole lot when you're talking about storms. The remnant of Chris doesn't look like it has a low-level circulation to it. -- §HurricaneERIC§ archive 03:08, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
Yeah. It still has some deep convection, but it's got no low-level circulation. bob rulz 06:56, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
I don't know, but Ex-Chris is barely anything right now. It seems more dead than alive as satellite pictures show (especially the infared ones). If wind shear continues in the northern Carribean and the Gulf, Chris will never seem to regenerate and even if it did, it would be highly unlikely. Alastor Moody (talk) 08:05, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
Well, I think it's safe to say that Chris is dead now. bob rulz 19:00, 6 August 2006 (UTC)

Chris is gone from NRL again. NHC no longer expects redevelopment. --Coredesat talk. ^_^ 01:06, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

99L offtopic discussion[edit]

IT IS GOOD THAT THEY KILL PEOPLE AND DESTROY THINGS, THAT IS WHAT THEY ARE DESIGNED TO DO. Now with regards to our future little Chris here; I estimate 6-8 hours before they deem it a Depression. At the same time, that mass of convection could just be fooling us. O-TOWN'S AT (12:17am EST, July 28, 2006)
Does it matter whether they're good or bad? If it doesn't, why are we wasting space in the MySQL database? Titoxd(?!?) 04:34, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
It's not good that people die, but hurricanes are very intresting beasts, so looking and hoping for development is okay by me, bu we do have to remember the human toll and be a little humane about it (Talking to you OTown person. That was harsh.). guitarhero777777 04:58, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
HAH, humane?? Fact is i love hurricances. I was on the beach when Charley came ashore in Punta Gorda. I'm not dead. I was in Navarre Beach, on the beach when Hurricane Dennis came ashore, not dead. You have to be completely ignorant and stupid to be killed by a hurricane. When they say evacuate... DO IT. And I don't quite give Katrina victims any leyway either because they were warned long before. If you make the concious choice to stay in town for a super hurricane like Andrew or Katrina and you don't know what your doing then a death doesn't phase me.
Don't take me the wrong way. Sorry, people die and the world still spins. My heart sinks a little for the mass casualty during Katrina, but more for the towns in MS that were basically wiped off the planet than those in Missouri. No, I don't believe that was harsh at all. O-TOWN'S AT 05:23, 28 July 2006 (UTC) Now concentrate on the future Chris, not hate mail for Andrew :)O-TOWN'S AT 05:23, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Be civil. Your behaviour is getting very irritating. Chacor 06:12, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Never seen such discussion in wikipedia. Hurricane's are destructive. And there is no way of avoiding it completely. Irfanfaiz 06:40, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Wow, that looks good. I wasn't here yesterday, and I didn't expect much for today and now we've that. -- WmE 06:43, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
"You have to be completely ignorant and stupid to be killed by a hurricane. "
Um.... lol...? No, actually thats just mean. It's a conscious choice to stay in the path of a hurricane. Now why don't we all just settle down... I HAVE CANDY! -Winter123 06:55, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Okay, I am sorry, I probably did go to far back there. I was being oestered by two annoying administrators and I was ticked off. If I truely offended anyone you can send your hate mail to act32701@hotmail.comO-TOWN'S AT 08:36, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
As for out Tropical Disturbance, it looks like it will be a depression by sometime today, my original call for it to be named today I will retract because it didn't develop as rapidly as I had expected and hoped overnight. O-TOWN'S AT 08:36, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Yeah that's fair and I agree with you totally, glad to see some of us retain perspective here. The ideal hurricane season to me is one with NO hurricanes. Comments like "it is good hurricanes kill people" are highly offensive. See this comment by User:Thegreatdr, who is a meteorologist at the HPC. Think about what it says about you before you say "this lump of clouds will become a hurricane", you note that it might happen but don't celebrate that. For what its worth, I think it is certainly possible that 99L will become Chris, but at this time it as just as likely to come to nothing.--Nilfanion (talk) 11:41, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
I told him that already! They may not always kill people, but they wipe out homes and property. "Get out of the way or you are stupid." Its statements like that I cannot stand. People couldn't move their whole city away from Katrina. They lost everything, and its sick to cheer this stuff on. Good kitty 14:42, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Yeah, Andrew, they are right, you did go too far. I think you mean't to say it in a different way, you just used the wrong words to describe your thoughts. This is like the third time you've done this. Though you are right in one aspect. They (The City of New Orleans & The denizens) should have taken more measures to get people out of that city. There is absolutely no excuse for the loss of life acrued during Katrina. Is that what you were trying to say. Btw, I just watched your Alberto footage and it is average. And for those who think that this comment belongs on a user talk page, hold on... The reports that I am reading say that this particular system is headed for an area that is highly volitile. Why, do you all think that this is going to develop into some major storm. Am I missing something. I hate typing on these pages so you will rarely see me on here often but for one last breath... You should give Andrew more credit than you are. I have known him for 6 years and have been there with him when he goes off and does stupid stuff like film landfalls of major hurricanes. He is trying to launch a website with all his work on it as we speak. He is the biggest hurricane freak that I know. I myself like tornadoes more than hurricanes. My name is Matt btw and Andrew is my roommate. Good talking to yall, l8r!12.116.160.174 18:55, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Would it be possible (and or allowed) for someone to prune this discussion? Very few of the above comments relate to 99L, and for someone coming here to actually read about the storm and opinions about the storm, I'm kinda put off by such a long, drawn out blah that's off topic. That being said, I think we all need to get our heads on straight and approach this season in a polite and courteous manner. We do not predict the storms on WP, we do not create the storms on WP (obviously), and we should not make rude comments on talk pages on WP. Storms are neither good, nor bad. They are. That being said, 99L is looking pretty down there. I would be surprised if it didn't develop into a TD rather quickly. The only question is where it's headed. - Jake - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 22:01, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Done. -- RattleMan 22:11, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Just in case y'all didn't notice, our O-TOWN friend has been blocked, so it's highly likely he was merely trolling you. He was blocked for soliciting child pornography (or attempting to make Wikipedia look like a place where one can solicit child pornography). Good job, kids - You have lost. You have been trolled. Have a nice day. --Golbez 23:24, 28 July 2006 (UTC)

Thank God! Child Porno, really? That's lower than low. I'm glad he's off. Now, we only have people who are okay in the head on this page and we won't have this argument (are hurricanes bad?) anymore. guitarhero777777 23:55, 28 July 2006 (UTC)
Golbez: About the last bit, I don't think people who have tried to assume good faith, or tried to reason in the face of incivility, should be put down in such a manner. Please don't use such a tone against basically everyone that tried to talk to him. —AySz88\^-^ 00:31, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
I agree. You can't have it both ways. WP:AGF can result in the feeding of trolls, but it's worth it. Don't beat people over the head for doing the right thing. --Elliskev 01:12, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
Y'all need to learn that you have to assume bad faith sometimes. It's very nice to assume good faith, and hindsight is 20/20, but really, just look at the guy. I do apologize, though. And hurricanes are indeed a good thing, just as massively destructive earthquakes are a good thing - without them, our system would be far less balanced and we would not have the hospitable planet we have. However, the unfortunate human effects are a bad thing. --Golbez 01:10, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
I find it wicked funny that this was moved down here, and that OTOWN was banned. LOL all around.
And I say hurricanes are just a part of life. Who cares if they are good or bad, because no matter what you say, they will happen. If you say "HAHAHAH I HOPE THIS HURRICANE DESTROYS NEW ORLEANS!!!1", other than it being offensive to people that live there, it does not affect the hurricane at all. The hurricane will go where the winds take it. -Winter123 02:46, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
I don't think Golbez was putting anybody down...at least, not on purpose. Lighten up, people! bob rulz 09:17, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
Bob is right. I wasn't offended at all. I actually thought it was in good humor. guitarhero777777 16:46, 29 July 2006 (UTC)
Whatever... It was an obvious attempt to paint anyone who responded as a troll-feeder. Simple and plain as that. WP:AGF still rules the day, regardless. --Elliskev 19:39, 29 July 2006 (UTC)

I move to archive this section, the initiator was blocked for other provocatory and vandal-type behavior. Runningonbrains 05:33, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Which you obviously all knew because you read the above section, which I foolishly neglected to do. Still, my motion stands as stated. Runningonbrains 05:43, 31 July 2006 (UTC)