Talk:Contingency market

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The contingency market also facilitates assurance contracts and dominant assurance contracts.

There is no original research here. The theory has been established for many years. Many implementations already exist. See prediction market. The Contingency Market is simply a particularly generic implementation that supports anything from assurance contracts to futures trading. Because it supports independent and dependent events, as well as any combination of contingent (mutually interdependent) contracts it is too generic to fit anywhere except in a new broader category, i.e. that of contingency market.

Moreover, while the previous example involves only one contingency, Hanson (2003) suggests that market scoring rules can allow traders to simultaneously predict many combinations of outcomes. The basic intuition of his proposal is that rather than betting on each contingency, traders bet that the sum of their errors over all predictions will be lower. However while contingent markets can be used to estimate the joint probability of choice A and outcome B, care must be taken before inferring that choice A should be made because it will maximize the probability of outcome B. That is, while these markets can highlight the correlation between events, the difficulty of inferring causation remains. [1]

Also see the blog entry in this area by Mike Linksvayer (Creative Commons CTO):


  1. ^ Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice, Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz [2]