Talk:Effects of global warming

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Benefits[edit]

Benefits section missing[edit]

I am missing discussion of the likely benefits of global warming. See e.g. here for a (admittedly, biased) common-sense list.Zezen (talk) 17:19, 21 November 2015 (UTC)

busted link NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:23, 21 November 2015 (UTC)
You mean? The papers that they refer to may be "busted" (I read the rebuttals in depth, for 2 hours, in short the temperature window of economic benefits will be shorter than previously claimed), but the other non-economic arguments are sound: more vegetation, etc. These are not mentioned here, so Undue. Pls elaborate Zezen (talk) 08:09, 22 November 2015 (UTC)
First time I clicked on it, the page would not load and I got an error message. Isn't that what "busted link" usually means? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 08:44, 22 November 2015 (UTC)
So now the link works. I quit reading when it became apparent the column was plugging a book edited by Bjorn Lomborg. You'll need a better RS to inspire much serious consideration, at least on my part. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 08:47, 22 November 2015 (UTC)
You misunderstand me, which is probably my fault.

I do not claim the article is a RS. I have read the Bjorn Lomborg and Tals' debates in some depth. I meant that the arguments therein themselves are sound. The claims that there are benefits to some regions/actors from global warming should be taken on board and discussed (maybe refuted en masse). The whole section is missing so due weight was not given. Zezen (talk) 10:36, 22 November 2015 (UTC)

Is Lomborg a virus? Is that what @NewsAndEventsGuy: thinks? I see an article which is primarily discussing a paper by Richard Tol. For those who haven't memorized the name, Tol was the " coordinating lead author for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability."; the IPCC study is generally considered the gold standard in climate circles. He is writing about his acknowledged area of expertise, yet because his paper is one of several chapters in a book which is edited by Lonborg, NAEG can't even finish the article. Why? What would happen if you read the whole article?
@Zezen:, yes the subject of the benefits of global warming is a legitimate subject but unlikely to get serious coverage in Wikipedia.--S Philbrick(Talk) 16:59, 22 November 2015 (UTC)
Despite Sphilbrick's spin on my comments, I have neither supported nor opposed discussion of a "benefits" section. I've only said that this is a top-level sub article (falling one notch below the pinnacle "main article" Global warming). Things included here should be covered by multiple reputable RSs. If the only RS you have is a book edited by oft-debunked Lomborg, then it probably doesn't merit inclusion in one of our main sub articles. Up to proponents of this proposal to show that such RSs exist. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:06, 22 November 2015 (UTC)
If "Things included here should be covered by multiple reputable RSs" were the case, we could strip the article back to a couple sentences. I don't think that's your intention.--S Philbrick(Talk) 00:36, 23 November 2015 (UTC)
I am thinking it is appropriate to include section on benefits provided that it has appropriate recognition that the adverse effects are much wider ranging and much more severe for large amounts of GW. [www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives-intermediate.htm] has some material gathered. Tol has had to correct some of his work so even if IPCC is generally gold standard, that may no longer apply after having to correct work. crandles (talk) 12:05, 23 November 2015 (UTC)
One concern I have is structural. Is it better to have a single section on benefits (as you have just added) or should each of the sections include commentary of both negative and positive impacts?--S Philbrick(Talk) 17:41, 23 November 2015 (UTC)
I am happy that my modest proposal of including such a benefits section is gaining traction, if only to arrive at the overall negative balance. I will leave it in your hands then, and am signing off from contributing to this topic for now. Zezen (talk) 16:29, 25 November 2015 (UTC)

@Zezen, NewsAndEventsGuy, and Sphilbrick: A section about the benefits of global warming was added to this article by User:C-randles. It still contains some confusing statements that need to be better explained, such as there is some published material indicating that a small amount of warming would be good. [sic]. Jarble (talk) 04:22, 22 March 2016 (UTC)

Thanks for the ping, but I'm staying away for awhile. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:10, 28 March 2016 (UTC)

Very well. Thank you, User:C-randles for starting this section. Zezen (talk) 05:22, 29 March 2016 (UTC)

@C-randles: This section has been paraphrased again, making it even more subjective: "Not all effects of global warming will be negative: a small amount of warming would be good". Is it possible to precisely distinguish a "good" amount of climate change from a "bad" amount of climate change? Jarble (talk) 17:32, 24 April 2016 (UTC)
Reverted first 2 sentences. If the warming was insufficient to destabilise ice sheets and at small levels you get CO2 fertilisation effects then at this low level of warming the fertilisation benefit is likely greater than stresses caused. Whether it is possible to "precisely distinguish" the level or quantify the effects doesn't matter; the question is whether the assertion is supported by the literature. Here is a section from Tol [1]

"The initial benefits arise partly because more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reduces “water stress” in plants and may make them grow faster (Long, Ainsworth, Leakey, Noesberger, and Ort, 2006). In addition, the output of the global economy is concentrated in the temperate zone, where warming reduces heating costs and cold-related health problems. Although the world population is concentrated in the tropics, where the initial effects of climate change are probably negative, the relatively smaller size of the economy in these areas means that—at least over the interval of small increases in global temperatures—gains for the high-income areas of the world exceed losses in the low-income areas. However, this pattern should be interpreted with care....." Figure had to be corrected twice and no longer shows trend lines rising from zero then at higher temperature changes declining but I think text such as above still stands. crandles (talk) 13:01, 25 April 2016 (UTC)

@C-randles, Epipelagic, and Viriditas: Still, there is some apparent bias in this section: since this section specifically argues that these effects of global warming "would be good", it is advancing a non-neutral point of view. Jarble (talk) 00:51, 2 July 2016 (UTC)
Why ping Viriditas and me? Viriditas hasn't contributed to the article in 10 years and is no longer here. I have never contributed to the article. --Epipelagic (talk) 01:41, 2 July 2016 (UTC)
@Epipelagic: This talk page seems to be mostly inactive nowadays, so I was hoping to find some experts on the article's subject. Jarble (talk) 02:46, 2 July 2016 (UTC)
I'm not an expert on the subject. The section seems largely irrelevant and uninteresting to me. Whatever regional benefits there may be they are speculative and will be temporary. Perhaps those keen to minimize or bypass the central issue by focussing on side issues find it interesting. I guess it comes down to the quality of available sources. The section can be justified if there are sufficient reliable sources addressing the issue in a coherent way. --Epipelagic (talk) 07:25, 2 July 2016 (UTC)
"it is advancing a non-neutral POV." Is it? It is a scientific topic and so the page should describe what is in the scientific literature. I think the literature does say things like a CO2 fertilisation effect is good (see quote above I provided) with little or no disagreement and therefore it is entirely uncontroversial to put such things in the article. Whether the overall effects are good for small temperature rises is more controversial but there is mention of this in the literature so I see no reason not to include this in the article. (It is of course largely irrelevant to what is happening as unless temperature rises stop and soon we are not heading for 'small temperature rises', but appears to me to be useful to put things in context.) crandles (talk) 12:40, 2 July 2016 (UTC)

Just bumping section to stop it being archived as appears discussion relevant to recent changes. crandles (talk) 17:17, 3 December 2016 (UTC)

Some incomplete citations in the "Benefits of global warming" section[edit]

@C-randles: Some of the inline citations in this article include the author's last name and a year of publication, but not the author's full name or the specific title of the work that is being cited. Can you provide more specific information about the citations you added?

  • HPA 2007
  • Zhou 2001
  • Corno 2006

Jarble (talk) 03:40, 3 December 2016 (UTC)

Updated to add more details and links. Hope that is a little better, even if more cite formatting would improve things further. crandles (talk) 16:04, 3 December 2016 (UTC)

It is possible to find some individual peer reviewed papers that disagree with IPCC conclusions, for example that global warming will be good for the economy. We have to remember that this is an extraordinary claim, and so requires extraordinary evidence. An Editorial Note Correction does not really meet that requirement. Hence my recent revert. --Nigelj (talk) 12:49, 4 December 2016 (UTC)

That editorial note is correcting Tol 2009 [2] which includes as quoted nearer top of this talk page "The initial benefits arise partly because more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reduces “water stress” in plants and may make them grow faster (Long, Ainsworth, Leakey, Noesberger, and Ort, 2006). In addition, the output of the global economy is concentrated in the temperate zone, where warming reduces heating costs and cold-related health problems. Although the world population is concentrated in the tropics, where the initial effects of climate change are probably negative, the relatively smaller size of the economy in these areas means that—at least over the interval of small increases in global temperatures—gains for the high-income areas of the world exceed losses in the low-income areas. However, this pattern should be interpreted with care. Even if, initially, economic impacts may well be positive..." This paper has been corrected twice with respect to the controversial graph it included but I believe this text has not been challenged.
I am not convinced this is an extraordinary claim in that I think 0.1C (or even 0.5C) of warming from preindustrial would be fairly widely accepted as good. Clearly we are not heading for such a limited small amount of warming having reached 0.8C above pre-industrial and looking pretty difficult to prevent 2C of warming.
I think having a section on benefits is sensible but it need to be placed in context. I think it sensible to say that:
1. With a large range of effects they are not all effect are going to be good or bad.
2. Then move on to overall effect or whether the majority are good or bad as best as we can tell, and this should if the literature says so, include possibility that small amount of warming might be good. (I would like to add we are not heading for a limited small amount of warming that might be good but such a statement would require referencing rather than just inserting this.)
Further clarification of my version to provide better context seems a more sensible route to go rather than cutting bits out. Do other commentators want to share their views? crandles (talk) 14:45, 4 December 2016 (UTC)

───────────────────────── This is the only section heading that uses good/bad language, and is suspect at best. Take any given effect of global warming - is it good or bad? Depends on one's point of view. Better, in my view, is to describe expected changes and leave the good/bad assessment to the reader, and in the case of good/bad statements made in RSs with great weight, maybe we include those good/bad assessments with inline attribution. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:04, 4 December 2016 (UTC)

@NewsAndEventsGuy and Nigelj: This section is still likely to be somewhat misleading, but there have been no significant changes to it during the last 8 months. Can we do anything to improve it? Jarble (talk) 21:39, 12 September 2017 (UTC)

Should there be a benefits section at all[edit]

I deleted the entire section (in this diff) because it is non-neutral. This article is about the effects of global warming. There can be both good and bad aspects to any given change. If any of this stuff is included, it needs to be included in sections that discuss effects. Its ok to judiciously provide inline attribution when someone of significant import characterizes one change or another as good or bad, but we shouldn't do that in Wikivoice. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:45, 14 March 2018 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 23 March 2017[edit]

Give mote examples of season change. 108.84.137.58 (talk) 02:59, 23 March 2017 (UTC)

Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format. DRAGON BOOSTER 04:26, 23 March 2017 (UTC)
Did you really expect anyone to satisfy this vague request, when you can't even bother to spell "more" correctly? -- 184.189.217.210 (talk) 01:04, 6 August 2017 (UTC)
Bad spelling is not a good reason for rejecting a request. Vagueness is. --Hob Gadling (talk) 06:33, 8 November 2017 (UTC)

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About climate change and heat waves[edit]

As I understood, this is a summary page. So I propose put in the section extreme weather about heatwave this text: @Jim1138:

Global warming boosts the probability of extreme weather events, like heat waves, far more than it boosts more moderate events.[1][2][3]

In recent 3-4 decades, heat waves became more frequent and severe. testThe rise in temperature and humidity are the main causes. Extremely hot nights became twice more frequent. The area in which extremely hot summers are observed, is 50-100 times larger. The changes can not be explained by natural variability, and attributed by climate scientists to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Heat waves with high humidity pose a big risk to human health while heat waves with low humidity lead to dry conditions what increase wildfires. The mortality from extreme heat is bigger than the mortality from hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes together[4].

And the news about heat waves and climate change put in the section Climate change and Heatwaves: Observed Impacts that I created. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave#Observed_Impacts What do you think? אלכסנדר סעודה (talk) 09:22, 16 August 2018 (UTC)

I think we are fucked. Oh, you wanted my opinion on your text, didn't you... How is this?
Global warming increases the probability of extreme weather events including heat waves. (Is there a need for "than it boosts more moderate events?)
In the last 30-40 years, heat waves with high humidity have became more frequent and severe. Extremely hot nights have doubled in frequency. The area in which extremely hot summers are observed, has increased 50-100 fold. These changes are not explained by natural variability, and attributed by climate scientists to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Heat waves with high humidity pose a big risk to human health while heat waves with low humidity lead to dry conditions what increase wildfires. The mortality from extreme heat is larger than the mortality from hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes together

Makes sure that Global warming and extreme weather, etc., are not already linked per wp:OVERLINK. I included a link to wikt:anthropogenic.
Other possibly useful recent sources:
Thanks for your work and putting up with my slow reponses, etc. Cheers Jim1138 (talk)

References

  1. ^ "Has global warming brought an early summer to the US?". New Scientist.
  2. ^ Global Warming Makes Heat Waves More Likely, Study Finds 10 July 2012 NYT
  3. ^ Hansen, J; Sato, M; Ruedy, R (2012). "Perception of climate change". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (37): E2415–23. doi:10.1073/pnas.1205276109. PMC 3443154. PMID 22869707.
  4. ^ "Heat Waves: The Details". Climate Communication. Retrieved 16 August 2018.

───────────────────────── Whatever the result of this thread, please see the existing text at [[Effects_of_global_warming#Extreme weather and explain how these ideas should supplement or replace the existing text. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:57, 16 August 2018 (UTC)

I explain my reasons to the edit... The text before the edits talked mostly about future effects and about the present it say that "the number of hot day and nights increase". The word Heat wave even wasn't mentioned. The present sever efects on health was not mentioned. People who visited the page did not understand, I suppose, what this impacts do, to our health now. The text now is talking about the latest news. I admitt that when I put him here 2-3 days ago I made an error. As NewsAndEventsGuy say, this is a summary page. So I think that we should put the text that Jim1138 proposed in this page and the news in the article I created. I will wait several hours and if there is no more objections I do it.. I understand that it is preferred to translate my name to English in the signature, so I try to do it.

אלכסנדר סעודה Alexander Sauda —Preceding undated comment added 11:28, 17 August 2018 (UTC)

We already have several regional articles covering the "newsie" side to the 2018 heat wave. Most (all?) of these are listed at the navigation page 2018 heat wave. Those are where newsie stuff should go. For a discussion of the science behind climate change's connection to heat waves in general, that should go in heat wave. I don't know what "article" you may have created. When you say things like that please avoid ambiguity by providing a link. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:17, 17 August 2018 (UTC)

I talk about the section "Climate change and Heatwaves" that I mentioned here before, and that you deleted from the page Heat Wave. You move it to the talk page and writed that you do not like the grammar in the first paragraph and in the second, about the news, you said that it is not sure that global warming cause it and the heat wave is not ended. But I think every reasonable persone will understand exellent what is writed in the first paragraph, if you do not sure that is global warming you can write "probably" and the fact that it is not ended still, is not an obstacle to write about it. The second and the third reasons are confirmed by the page that you have mentioned - it is writed there about the link to global warming and it existe despite the heat wave is not over. Also I think that in the page "Heatwave" there is enough place for this news at least in few lines. In the page Climate change and agriculture for example there is section "Observed Impacts", so it can be there also. Or if you want I can create specific page Climate Change and Heatwaves". What you prefer?

אלכסנדר סעודה (talk) 14:26, 17 August 2018 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 20 October 2018[edit]

To be added as a second paragraph in the subsection "Droughts and Agriculture" in the section "Food Supply":

A recent and widely publicized study suggests that sudden decreases in barley production due to extreme drought and heat could in the future cause substantial volatility in the availability and price of beer.[1] 70.181.115.163 (talk) 23:25, 20 October 2018 (UTC)

Not done. There's no indication that this paper is widely publicized, and even if it were, there's no need to say that in the article. But also, the section is a very broad view of droughts and agriculture, while what you want to add is probably way too specific. Any study added here should probably be similarly broad in scope. –Deacon Vorbis (carbon • videos) 03:07, 24 October 2018 (UTC)

References

Migration and conflict, "threat multiplier"[edit]

Military planners are concerned that global warming is a "threat multiplier". "Whether it is poverty, food and water scarcity, diseases, economic instability, or threat of natural disasters, the broad range of changing climatic conditions may be far reaching. These challenges may threaten stability in much of the world".[137] For example, the onset of Arab Spring in December 2010 is partly the result of a spike in wheat prices following crop losses from the 2010 Russian heat wave.[138][139]

---

This implies that the Arab spring is a threat (to military planners, perhaps?). Quite opinionated. Dictatorships sometimes face rebellion even without Russian crop losses. Recommend you remove the example. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 80.222.148.189 (talk) 22:28, 1 March 2019 (UTC)