Talk:List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

Eukaryotic extinction. Description contradicts the cited reference.[edit]

Under Scientific predictions

1.3 billion S. Franck, C. Bounama, W. Von Bloh It's estimated all Eukaryotic life will die out due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes will remain. [123]

However, in the reference paper [123] the text is "Eucaryotes and complex life extinct because of too high surface temperatures in the future." Carbon dioxide starvation is the fate of the procaryotes "The ultimate life span of the biosphere is defined by the extinction of procaryotes in about 1.6 Gyr because of CO2 starvation" — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2a00:23c4:8480:1d00:d9ad:324d:618b:1165 (talk) 09:04, 25 July 2017‎ (UTC)

Should the 2015 comet be added?[edit]

Back in 2015, there were there claims that a comet was going to devastate the Earth - see the Snopes article here. I think this would be a useful addition to the list --121.218.95.9 (talk) 04:37, 30 November 2017 (UTC)

It seems that most items have a link to an existing claimant article (implying notability), but there are exceptions, sources are also used so article existence doesn't seem the only criteria. I would suggest to boldy add it and see if it's contested, since a source is a good start. Thanks, —PaleoNeonate – 05:00, 30 November 2017 (UTC)

2026 chances[edit]

Says "The chances are only 1 out of 300,000." with no citation. If it means a massive impactor like the Chicxulub one that ended the dinosaur era (but still probably wouldn't make humans extinct) then the chance is 1 in a million per century - approx, but much less this century because they have found all the near earth objects that come close to Earth's orbit and none hit us in the next century from 10 km upwards and for 1 km upwards they have found 95% with most of the 5% remaining expected to be found in the next decade. 1 km is the approximate minimum diameter for any significant global effects. As for long period comets, they are currently very rare. The closest any comet larger than a few meters in diameter has come in recorded astronomical observations is Lexell's Comet in the eightteenth century. I'm saying the probability is far less than 1 in 300,000, close to zero. Robert Walker (talk) 13:15, 16 February 2018 (UTC)

Yup, there's no source for that 1 in 300,000 claim, and from looking at Riaz Ahmed Gohar Shahi and the sources there it does not appear that that claim is part of the prediction (not surprisingly... what religious dooms day prediction ever quotes a probability?). I'll remove it. Meters (talk) 21:50, 16 February 2018 (UTC)