Talk:List of dates predicted for apocalyptic events/Archives/2018/February

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2026 chances

Says "The chances are only 1 out of 300,000." with no citation. If it means a massive impactor like the Chicxulub one that ended the dinosaur era (but still probably wouldn't make humans extinct) then the chance is 1 in a million per century - approx, but much less this century because they have found all the near earth objects that come close to Earth's orbit and none hit us in the next century from 10 km upwards and for 1 km upwards they have found 95% with most of the 5% remaining expected to be found in the next decade. 1 km is the approximate minimum diameter for any significant global effects. As for long period comets, they are currently very rare. The closest any comet larger than a few meters in diameter has come in recorded astronomical observations is Lexell's Comet in the eightteenth century. I'm saying the probability is far less than 1 in 300,000, close to zero. Robert Walker (talk) 13:15, 16 February 2018 (UTC)

Yup, there's no source for that 1 in 300,000 claim, and from looking at Riaz Ahmed Gohar Shahi and the sources there it does not appear that that claim is part of the prediction (not surprisingly... what religious dooms day prediction ever quotes a probability?). I'll remove it. Meters (talk) 21:50, 16 February 2018 (UTC)