Talk:Tropical cyclone forecast model

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Good articleTropical cyclone forecast model has been listed as one of the Natural sciences good articles under the good article criteria. If you can improve it further, please do so. If it no longer meets these criteria, you can reassess it.
Article milestones
DateProcessResult
March 31, 2011Good article nomineeListed
Did You Know
A fact from this article appeared on Wikipedia's Main Page in the "Did you know?" column on February 23, 2006.
The text of the entry was: Did you know ...that until the late 1980s, the most accurate tropical cyclone prediction model was purely statistical?

Expansion todo[edit]

Still need to finish adding model info from the 2005 Verification report and more details on each individual model. --AySz88^-^ 05:37, 23 May 2006 (UTC)[reply]

Possible changes[edit]

I think that it might be good to rename this tropical cyclone forecasting and then make it a spinoff from the tropical cyclone article. The current content could just be part of that larger article. Things that could then be included are: statistical predictions, as is done or the seasonal outlooks, these models, past forecast accuracy, the step by step process that goes into making a forecast, and other stuff. Miss Madeline | Talk to Madeline 22:54, 10 September 2006 (UTC)[reply]

I like that idea. Then, you can talk about manual techniques as well. Thegreatdr 12:07, 16 March 2007 (UTC)[reply]
...or on second thought, this article could be left as-is while another article concerning tropical cyclone forecasting is created. Chances are, we would need a subarticle on the track models anyhow. Thegreatdr 15:53, 10 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Name change[edit]

I think this page should be "Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model" rather than with the word "prediction." I think it is important to note that meteorologists forecast the weather and do not predict the weather. It might seem like a minor point, but it is a rather significant difference. 4.136.81.238 05:32, 6 July 2007 (UTC)[reply]

I use Weather_prediction as an example, which redirects into Weather_forecasting. I know some of the models have "Prediction" in there name, but I am sure some wish that was not the case. (Although, most of the general public doesn't know the names of the models) I have changed instances relating to "prediction" to "forecasting" and if no one objects I'll change the name of this page and redirect the then old page to the new one, unless someone does it first. 4.136.81.238 05:46, 6 July 2007 (UTC)[reply]
Actually, I decided to just login and do it. NHC calls them forecast models: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml Wdwic Pictures 06:00, 6 July 2007 (UTC)[reply]
Move complete. Wdwic Pictures 07:08, 6 July 2007 (UTC)[reply]

Added topic year headers[edit]

18-Aug-2008: I have added the headers "Topics from 2006" (etc.) as on other talk pages, to help keep the topics sorted by date, but fortunately this was a small talk-page, so I didn't need to move several topics into date order (other talk-pages have had topics scrambled across 6 years). -Wikid77 (talk) 18:01, 18 August 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Better report page needed[edit]

Editing Talk:Tropical cyclone forecast model A couple of links to best computer models would help we, the public in coastal states, are intensely interested in current real-time data and detailed predictive information whenever a hurricane threatens our coast. Our encyclopedia is incomplete when it omits this salient information or how to find it.

See, e.g., this terrific link shows something like what we need: http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/06LSPAG.gif

This is also good: http://www.hurricanealley.net/natl.html

This site was recommended as having good links, but couldn't get it to display -- maybe security? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/verify/index.html

We coastal dwellers need this wikipedia page to provide or link to real-time and predictive sites that provides a map representing the results of each computer model prediction of storm path of an active hurricane or tropical storm. It would be ideal if Clipper and all the global models were included, and as many as possible of the rest. The list in this article is excellent. If as many of these models could be included in a graph, it could be ideal.

It would help us greatly if each model could be represented on the map with a line graphic of a distinct highly visible color easily differentiated from the others.

It would help if the map could be followed by a key linking color of line graphic to model. The key could also indicate when each model was last run. The key could provide a thumbnail of each model's current result with a link to click through to a page for that model for more detail on current and recent results and the model itself.

The map and key should be followed by a discussion starting with all appropriate disclaimers.


Failing all that, a fallback would be a page giving links to each model, with the most accurate ones toward the top. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 68.166.203.170 (talk) 14:19, 21 August 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Long overdue expansion - input needed[edit]

Improvements to numerical weather prediction, Atmospheric model, and History of numerical weather prediction have led to some recent expansion within this article. We're reaching an impasse, however. The list format currently making up much of its body is not going to pass muster when this article is GANed, which could be sooner than you think. How should we proceed? I've added a history section, but we could just as well interweave history in with each piece of guidance, which would reduce redundancy, which has already begun to creep into the article. I need input before going further forward here. Thegreatdr (talk) 04:28, 26 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I've split the history section into statistical and dynamical model sections, which incorporate both history and information about the guidance. As each model is discussed, I'm removing models from the lists below. Thegreatdr (talk) 05:13, 26 February 2011 (UTC)[reply]

GA Review[edit]

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Reviewing
This review is transcluded from Talk:Tropical cyclone forecast model/GA1. The edit link for this section can be used to add comments to the review.

Reviewer: 12george1 (talk) 20:00, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Lead
  • It seems unclear (I know why, but other may not) as to how significant the track errors were on that image of Ernesto's computer models. So I think you should note in the caption that the white track is the path Ernesto actually took.
  • For clarification, I would wikilink "skill" to "Forecast skill".
Statistical guidance
  • Link Hurricane Isabel in the caption of the r-CLIPER image
  • Why did you wait until the end of the second paragraph to link "statistical model", when it could have been linked in the lead.
  • It says GFS here, but does not tell you that GFS stands for "Global Forecasting System". BTW, the full spelling of the acronym "NOGAPS" is also missing, and is spelled-out until the fourth paragraph of the Dynamical guidance section.
  • "The version of SHIPS with an inland decay component is known as Decay SHIPS (DSHIPS)." - you should write DSHIPS as Decay Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme out completely instead of Decay SHIPS, which will also cut down on the number of acronyms in that sentence.
  • In the last paragraph, delink: National Hurricane Center, rainfall, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center, since all of them were either linked earlier in the section or in the Lead.
Dynamical guidance
  • Similar to the issue before the previous one, you have several phrases that are only partially spelled-out, such as BAM shallow (BAMS) , BAM Medium (BAMM), and BAM Deep (BAMD).
    • Again, no. BAM was already defined; expanding fully the same thing thrice would only be redundant, and would advesely affect readability. Titoxd(?!? - cool stuff) 20:59, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]
  • In the third paragraph, about four sentences start the same way, causing minor redundancies (e.g. Tested in 1989 and 1990, By 1990, and two consecutive sentences that start with Since [year]).
  • Don't wikilink 2007
  • Don't explain what GFS is here, and just erase "Global Forecast System".
Timeliness
  • What does "GDFI" stand for, or did you mean to say "GDFL"?
Consensus methods
  • It seems that you are using the terms "early" and "late" in a different way than in Timeliness, like it seems that "early" is used here meaning, a long time ago. So you should probably erase "early" and "late" in this section.
    • Same as above, but clarified it by using interpolated instead of early. Titoxd(?!? - cool stuff) 20:59, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]
  • "Hurricane WRF" and "decay SHIPS" should be written as "HWRF" and "DSHIPS".
  • What does the acronym "TVCN" and "TVCC" stand for?
Ensemble methods
  • Delink "Joint Typhoon Warning Center" and "Japan Meteorological Agency's", since they are already linked enough
  • Spell-out mi in the parenthesis
References
  • Inconsistency names of authors (e.g. you have Franklin, James in Ref #5 and then James Franklin in Ref #24).
  • Reference #14 ("Beta Effect") does not directly link to the place it was intended to go.
  • Reference #16 is not in CiteWeb format
    • Removed, since it didn't meet WP:RS, and it didn't say anything not already found in the other references in the article . Titoxd(?!? - cool stuff) 20:59, 30 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]
Ok, good enough, I will now pass this article. Congratulations,--12george1 (talk) 01:13, 31 March 2011 (UTC)[reply]
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