The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century is a 2009 book by George Friedman. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.
Friedman predicts that the United States will remain the dominant global superpower throughout the 21st century, and that the history of the 21st century will consist mainly of attempts by other world powers to challenge American dominance. Although mainly about the geopolitics and wars of the century, the book also makes some economic, social, and technological predictions for the 21st century.
Friedman claims that around the year 2050 a Third World War will take place, between the United States, the "Polish Bloc," Britain, India, and China on one side, and Turkey and Japan on the other, with Germany and France entering the war in its late stages on the side of Turkey and Japan. The war will probably be started by a coordinated Turkish-Japanese sneak attack against the United States and its allies. In the book, Friedman predicts that the attack will take place at a time in which the Americans will be taken completely off guard, and hypothesizes 5:00 p.m. on November 24, 2050 (Thanksgiving Day) as a potential time.
In 2015, Stratfor published a decade forecast for 2015-2025, which revised the predictions made in the book on Russia and China. Rather than the Russian government completely collapsing, it envisioned that the Russian government would lose much of its power, and the country would gradually fragment into a series of semi-autonomous regions. In addition, while the book had postulated that Chinese fragmentation was more likely than the re-imposition of authoritarian rule, the analysis predicted that regional fragmentation was now a less-likely scenario for China, with the most probable result being the re-imposition of strict authoritarian rule.
The San Francisco Chronicle criticized the book's US-centrism and military emphasis: "Friedman's strangely provincial stance resembles some frightened insomniac who can't stop playing Age of Empires because he desperately needs to win before dawn."
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