Turkish general election, November 2015

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Turkish general election, November 2015
Turkey
Jun 2015 ←
members
1 November 2015 → 2019

All 550 seats of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey
276 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  MSC 2014 Davutoglu Mueller MSC2014 (cropped).jpg Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu VOA (cropped).jpg
Leader Ahmet Davutoğlu Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
Party AKP CHP
Leader since 28 August 2014 22 May 2010
Leader's seat Konya İzmir (II)
Last election 258 seats, 40.87% 132 seats, 24.95%
Current seats 258 131
Seats needed Increase 18 Increase 145

  Figen Yüksekdağ Selahattin Demirtaş (cropped).jpg Devlet Bahçeli VOA 2015 (cropped).jpg
Leader Selahattin Demirtaş
Figen Yüksekdağ
Devlet Bahçeli
Party HDP MHP
Leader since 22 June 2014 (both) 6 July 1997
Leader's seat İstanbul (I)Van Osmaniye
Last election 80 seats, 13.12% 80 seats, 16.29%
Current seats 80 79
Seats needed Increase 196 Increase 197

Electoral districts of Turkey 2015.png

Number of MPs elected per province, for a total of 550 seats in the Grand National Assembly

Incumbent Prime Minister

Ahmet Davutoğlu
AKP

Turkey This article is part of a series on the
Turkish general election, November 2015
Sunday, 1 November 2015

Opinion polling · Electoral districts · Electoral system · Members elected

Solution process · 2015 Suruç bombing · Turkey–ISIL conflict · Turkey–PKK conflict · Operation Martyr Yalçın · Counter-terrorism raids · Syrian refugee crisis · Media censorship · Presidential system · Ankara bombings
Results
Party
Votes
%
MPs
AKP
CHP
MHP
HDP
Others
Total
550
Flag of Turkey.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Turkey

The Turkish general election of November 2015 will be held on 1 November 2015 throughout the 85 electoral districts of Turkey to elect 550 members to the Grand National Assembly. It is the 25th general election in the history of the Turkish Republic and will elect the country's 26th Parliament.

The snap election was called by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on 24 August 2015 after coalition negotiations between the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the opposition broke down, amid claims that a vast number of AKP politicians favoured calling an early election rather than going into coalition. The previous general election held in June 2015 had resulted in a hung parliament, with the AKP falling 18 seats short of a majority. The election, which was dubbed as a 're-run' of the inconclusive June election by Erdoğan, will be the 7th early election in the history of Turkish multi-party politics and the first to be overseen by an interim election government. The election will render the 25th Parliamentary session, elected in June 2015, the shortest in the Grand National Assembly's history, lasting for just four months.

The election will take place amid security concerns after an escalation of violence predominantly in the south-east of the country. A ceasefire between the government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fell apart in July after the government authorised airstrikes against both Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militants Syria and PKK militants in Northern Iraq. This was in response to a suicide bombing in Suruç, believed to be perpetrated by ISIL, that killed 32 activists on 20 July. The conflict led to over 200 deaths of both civilians and military personnel in three months, with the situation in the mainly Kurdish south-east being described as 'a worsening bloodshed'.[1][2][3][4] This led to security concerns being raised over whether an election could be peacefully held in the region, while the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) was accused of deliberately sparking the conflict to both win back votes from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and to decrease the turnout in the south-eastern Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) strongholds.[5][6][7][8][9] The election was preceeded by the deadliest terrorist attack in Turkey's modern history, after two suicide bombers killed 102 people attending a peace rally in central Ankara.[10] Numerous political parties, notably the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), ended up either entirely cancelling or significantly toning down their election campaigns following the attack.

The election was predominately fought over the issues of terrorism and national security. Nevertheless, public polling and media commentators have indicated that they do not expect a different result to the June 2015 election, with some even speculating that a second early vote could possibly be held during 2016.[11][12]

Background[edit]

Turkish politics is largely dominated by four main parties. The largest is the right-wing Islamist rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has been described as a conservative democratic party and has been in power since winning a landslide victory in the 2002 general election. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has remained as the second largest party since 2002, observing a centre-left social democratic and Kemalist ideology. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) observes a Turkish nationalist ideology and has maintained third party status in Parliament since the 2007 general election. The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) was founded in 2012 and originates from the left-wing Peoples' Democratic Congress. It is largely seen as a pro-Kurdish party and maintains an ideology of minority rights and anti-capitalism. All four parties surpassed the 10% election threshold in the June 2015 general election and won representation in Parliament, with no party winning a majority to govern alone. Smaller parties include the Islamist Felicity Party (SP), the left-wing nationalist Patriotic Party (VP), the centrist Independent Turkey Party (BTP) and the social democratic Democratic Left Party (DSP), though neither party managed to command a significant amount of support in previous elections.

June 2015 election[edit]

Elections were held on 7 June 2015 in order to elect the 25th Parliament of Turkey, following the expiry of the 24th Parliament's four-year term. Suffering a 9% decrease in their vote share, the governing AKP won 258 out of the 550 seats, 18 seats short of a majority. The CHP also suffered a slight decrease in their vote and seat share, winning 132 seats. The MHP and the HDP both won 80 seats, with the HDP managing to surpass the 10% election threshold despite concerns that it could fall below the boundary. The election resulted in the first hung parliament since the 1999 general election. The election result immediately raised speculation over an early general election.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan invited AKP leader Ahmet Davutoğlu to form a government on 9 July 2015, by virtue of leading the largest party in Parliament.[13] If a government was not formed within 45 days (until 23 August 2015), then Erdoğan reserved the right to either extend the 45-day period or call an early election.

Coalition negotiations[edit]

Coalition negotiations taking place between the AKP and CHP following the June 2015 general election.

After being asked to form a government by virtue of leading the largest party in Parliament, AKP leader Ahmet Davutoğlu held talks with the leaders of the three opposition parties. With the HDP refusing to join a coalition with the AKP and the MHP preferring to remain in opposition, Davutoğlu entered extended negotiations with the main opposition CHP over a possible grand coalition deal. After 35 hours of negotiations spanning over 10 days, negotiations broke down after CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu claimed that Davutoğlu had only offered the CHP a role in a three-month government followed by early elections.[14] The CHP had previously made it a condition that any coalition deal should last for four years, the entire duration of the parliamentary term.[15]

Stating that early elections were the most likely possibility, Davutoğlu requested a meeting with MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli in a last-ditch attempt to form an AKP-MHP coalition. Bahçeli had previously announced his support for an early election, but later put forward four non-negotiable conditions for a possible coalition after a breakout of violence in the predominantly Kurdish south-eastern region of Turkey.[16] The meeting between the AKP and the MHP ended without agreement, after which Davutoğlu returned the mandate to form a government back to the President on 18 August. In what was branded a 'civilian coup' by the CHP, Erdoğan refused to invite Kılıçdaroğlu to form a government as is required by the Constitution, despite the fact that there was still five days left before the 45-day period ended.[17][18] Instead, Erdoğan announced his intention to call an early election on 21 August, finalising his decision on 24 August.

Early election[edit]

The prospect for an early election arose as early as the eve of the previous election on 7 June 2015, as soon as it emerged that the AKP had lost its majority. The speculation was aided by the political polarisation in Turkey, which was perceived to have made it difficult for two parties to come together in a coalition.[19] Even in the event of a coalition, it was deemed unlikely that two parties could maintain an agreement for the length of the parliament, making an early election before the required date of June 2019 highly likely. During his speech on election night, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli stated that his party was ready for an early election.[20]

It was widely observed by media commentators and opposition politicians that a vast majority of AKP politicians were in favour of going into an early election rather than forming a coalition government. President Erdoğan, the founder and former leader of the AKP, was widely seen to have observed a similar attitude.[21] MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and many other opposition politicians criticised Erdoğan for interfering and allegedly attempting to tamper with the coalition efforts in order to force an early vote.[22] Polls also showed that a clear majority of AKP voters favoured an early election, though supporters of opposition parties were shown to have preferred a coalition.[23] The leader of the AKP's coalition negotiation team Ömer Çelik was also seen as a proponent for an early election rather than a coalition, with Davutoğlu allegedly attempting but failing to remove him from his role due to his close relations with President Erdoğan.[24]

During the coalition negotiations, reports that the AKP were preparing for an early election resulted in numerous suggestions for possible polling dates, with the most likely (and eventually confirmed) option being in November 2015.[25] Other possible dates included Spring 2016, though AKP politicians claimed that elections could have been held as early as October 2015.[26][27] Speculation on the date resulted in Sadi Güven, the President of the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey (YSK), stating that the YSK was prepared for an early election and had organised an election within 63 days in the past.[28] He stated that unless 9th article of the Parliamentary Elections Law was invoked, the most likely date for an early election would be the first Sunday after 90 days from President Erdoğan's decision to call a snap election. Invoking the 9th article of the Parliamentary Elections Law could bring the date forward.[29] The YSK later issued a decision confirming that there were legal grounds for shortening the 90 day election timeline, after which they proposed to shorten the three-month period to two months and hold fresh elections on 1 November.[30] This date was later confirmed after Erdoğan called for early elections on 24 August.

Erdoğan's decision for the date to be set for 1 November 2015 was ridiculed by opposition commentators since it would be the 93rd anniversary of the abolition of the Ottoman sultanate, which was deemed ironic due to what the opposition called Erdoğan's perceived 'desires' to become a sultan through implementing a presidential system.[31]

This election will be the 7th early election called in the history of Turkish multi-party politics, with the previous 6 occurring in 1957, 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2002. It was observed that in every early election called, the governing party had always suffered a fall in their vote share.[32] The 2007 general election was also technically an early election, being called four months early after Parliament failed to elect a President, resulting in a more than 10-point increase in the AKP's share of the vote.

Interim election government[edit]

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu (C), Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioğlu (R) and Deputy Prime Minister Cevdet Yılmaz (L) address the United Nations in September 2015 as members of the interim election government

The November 2015 election is the first to be overseen by an interim election government, which must be formed in the event that the President calls an early vote if a government cannot be formed. With the June 2015 election being the only election after which politicians were unable to form a government, this is the first time the constitutional provision requiring an interim election government has been enacted. Serving Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was tasked with forming the interim government on 25 August 2015, a day after Erdoğan announced the snap poll.[33]

As required by the Constitution of Turkey, the government must be a national unity government with all parties represented in Parliament taking part. Due to their significance in the lead-up to elections, the Ministers of Justice, the Interior and Transport must be Independent. The remaining 22 ministries are allocated to each political party according to the number of MPs they have in Parliament. With the parliamentary composition at the time, the AKP was entitled to 11 ministries, the CHP to 5 and both the MHP and the HDP were entitled to 3 each. However, the CHP and the MHP refused to take part.[34] Davutoğlu sent invitations to CHP and MHP parliamentarians despite this, with MHP MP Tuğrul Türkeş surprisingly accepting the invitation and later being suspended from the MHP for disobeying the party line. All other CHP and MHP MPs declined invitations for ministerial positions, with their ministerial positions subsequently going to independents.

The government, sworn in on 28 August, is formed of 12 AKP MPs (including the Prime Minister), 12 Independents and 2 HDP MPs. Many of the independents, such as Energy Minister Ali Rıza Alaboyun, National Defence Minister Vecdi Gönül, Customs Minister Cenap Aşçı and Agriculture Minister Kutbettin Arzu are known to be active AKP supporters, though are not members of the party. Former AKP MPs Vecdi Gönül Kutbettin Arzu and Ali Rıza Alaboyun resigned from the AKP in order to become independent ministers.[35]

Electoral system[edit]

Turkey elects 550 Members of Parliament to the Grand National Assembly using the D'Hondt method, a party-list proportional representation system. In order to return MPs to parliament, a party must surpass the 10% election threshold. Parties that don't win above 10% of the vote nationwide have their votes re-allocated to the party coming first in each electoral district, in most cases producing a large winners bonus for the party that comes first overall. The threshold does not apply to independent candidates.

Since the 2014 presidential election, Turkish expats have been given the right to vote in elections overseas. The total votes won by each party abroad, as well as their votes cast at customs gates, are proportionally allocated to the results in each electoral district according to the number of MPs they return. For example, Konya elects 14 MPs, which is 2.55% of the total elected (550). Therefore, 2.55% of all overseas votes will be allocated to Konya's results, on the basis of the parties' overseas vote share.

Electoral districts[edit]

Number of MPs elected per electoral district

Turkey is split into 85 electoral districts, which elect a certain number of Members to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. The Assembly has a total of 550 seats, which each electoral district allocated a certain number of MPs in proportion to their population. The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey conducts population reviews of each district before the election and can increase or decrease a district's number of seats according to their electorate.

In all but three cases, electoral districts share the same name and borders of the 81 Provinces of Turkey, with the exception of İzmir, İstanbul and Ankara. Provinces electing between 19 and 36 MPs are split into two electoral districts, while any province electing above 36 MPs are divided into three. As the country's three largest provinces, İzmir and Ankara are divided into two subdistricts while İstanbul is divided into three. The distribution of elected MPs per electoral district is shown below.[36]

District MPs
Adana 14
Adıyaman 5
Afyonkarahisar 5
Ağrı 4
Aksaray 3
Amasya 3
Ankara 32
Ankara (I) 18
Ankara (II) 14
Antalya 14
Ardahan 2
Artvin 2
Aydın 7
 
District MPs
Balıkesir 8
Bartın 2
Batman 4
Bayburt 2
Bilecik 2
Bingöl 3
Bitlis 3
Bolu 3
Burdur 3
Bursa 18
Çanakkale 4
Çankırı 2
Çorum 4
 
District MPs
Denizli 7
Diyarbakır 11
Düzce 3
Edirne 3
Elazığ 4
Erzincan 2
Erzurum 6
Eskişehir 6
Gaziantep 12
Giresun 4
Gümüşhane 2
Hakkâri 3
Hatay 10
 
District MPs
Iğdır 2
Isparta 4
İstanbul 88
İstanbul (I) 31
İstanbul (II) 26
İstanbul (III) 31
İzmir 26
İzmir (I) 13
İzmir (II) 13
Kahramanmaraş 8
Kars 3
Kastamonu 3
Karabük 2
 
District MPs
Karaman 2
Kayseri 9
Kilis 2
Kırklareli 3
Kırıkkale 3
Kırşehir 2
Kocaeli 11
Konya 14
Kütahya 4
Malatya 6
Manisa 9
Mardin 6
Mersin 11
 
District MPs
Muğla 6
Muş 3
Nevşehir 3
Niğde 3
Ordu 5
Osmaniye 4
Rize 3
Sakarya 7
Samsun 9
Siirt 3
Sinop 2
Sivas 5
Şanlıurfa 12
 
District MPs
Şırnak 4
Tekirdağ 6
Tokat 5
Trabzon 6
Tunceli 2
Uşak 3
Van 8
Yalova 2
Yozgat 4
Zonguldak 5
Total 550

Contesting parties[edit]

The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey (YSK) announced that 29 parties had met the requirements of eligibility to contest the general election. This was down from 31 in the previous election held in June. The Homeland Party (YURT-P), the Rights and Equality Party (HEPAR) and the Free Cause Party (HÜDA-PAR) all lost their eligibility, while the Labour Party (EMEP) regained its eligibility to contest, having lost it before the June 2015 election. 21 independents contested the election.[37]

Of the 29 parties eligible, 18 fielded candidates by the deadline of 17:00 local time on 18 September 2015. This was a drop of 2 since the June 2015 vote, which had been contested by 20 parties. Parties that had contested the election in June that did not field candidates this time round included the Anatolia Party (ANAPAR), the Homeland Party (YURT-P), the Social Reconciliation Reform and Development Party (TURK-P) and the Rights and Justice Party (HAP). The TURK-P submitted their candidate lists before the deadline but was barred from running due to a complaint made by the AKP, which claimed that the TURK-P's logo was too similar to their own and thus confused voters.[38] The Centre Party submitted their candidate lists but later decided to boycott the election.[39] Parties contesting the election that did not do so in June included the Great Union Party (BBP), which had entered the June 2015 election in a 'National Alliance' under the Felicity Party banner. The full list of parties contesting the election, ordered according to their position on the ballot paper, is as follows.

Ballot # Party Leader Position Ideology Districts contested[40]
1
MP Nation Party Aykut Edibali Centre right Turkish nationalism 85
2
VP Patriotic Party Doğu Perinçek Left wing Left-wing nationalism 85
3
CHP Republican People's Party Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu Centre left Social democracy 85
4
HAK-PAR Rights and Freedoms Party Fehmi Fırat Left wing Kurdish nationalism 78
5
SP Felicity Party Mustafa Kamalak Far right Islamism 85
6
DSP Democratic Left Party Masum Türker Centre left Social democracy 85
7
DP Democrat Party Gültekin Uysal Centre right Economic liberalism 85
8
BTP Independent Turkey Party Haydar Baş Centre Liberal conservatism 85
9
MHP Nationalist Movement Party Devlet Bahçeli Far right Turkish nationalism 85
10
HKP People's Liberation Party Nurullah Ankut Far left Communism 85
11
LDP Liberal Democrat Party Cem Toker Centre right Liberalism 61
12
HDP Peoples' Democratic Party Selahattin Demirtaş
Figen Yüksekdağ
Left wing Democratic socialism 85
13
BBP Great Union Party Mustafa Destici Right wing Conservatism 85
14
AKP Justice and Development Party Ahmet Davutoğlu Right wing Conservatism 85
15
KP Communist Party Özlem Şen Abay Far left Communism 85
16
DYP True Path Party Çetin Özaçıkgöz Centre right Economic liberalism 67

Pre-election alliances[edit]

The Justice and Development Party has signalled a possible electoral alliance with the Islamist Felicity Party (SP) and the Great Union Party (BBP) in an attempt to maximise their votes and guarantee a parliamentary majority.[41][42] The SP and BBP had run together in a 'national alliance' in the June 2015 election, winning 2.06% of the vote and falling far short of the 10% election threshold. Both the SP leader Mustafa Kamalak and the BBP leader Mustafa Destici stated that they would not close their doors on a possible alliance with the AKP, though commentators also claimed that such an alliance would not result in a significant increase in the AKP's vote share since most SP and BBP supporters were heavily critical of the AKP in the first place.[43] Formal negotiations between the AKP and SP began on 3 September.[44] The AKP have also allegedly considered sending parliamentary candidacy invitations to former Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan's son Fatih Erbakan and former Prime Minister Mesut Yılmaz to broaden the party's appeal as much as possible.[45] On 15 September, talks between the AKP and SP ended unsuccessfully and the SP leader Mustafa Kamalak announced that they would contest the election alone, with the two parties failing to agree on the number of MPs that should be given to SP politicians.[46] The Rights and Justice Party (HAP) opted out of contesting the election and endorsed the AKP.[47]

The Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu held a surprise meeting with Patriotic Party (VP) leader Doğu Perinçek over a possible alliance, with the two leaders agreeing to continue negotiations.[48] It was also rumoured that the CHP could form an alliance with the Rights and Equality Party (HEPAR), with the party's founder Osman Pamukoğlu claiming that he would boost the CHP's vote by 3-4%.[49][50] It was also reported that a possible alliance with the Independent Turkey Party (BTP) could take place, with BTP leader Haydar Baş becoming an MP from the CHP party lists.[51] The CHP stated on 16 September that the party would not contest the election in an alliance, with the VP subsequently announcing that they would be contesting the election alone.[52]

The Great Union Party (BBP), having been open to talks with the AKP, also sought an alliance deal with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in order to by-pass the 10% election threshold. It was reported that the MHP could offer the BBP two or three prime spots on their candidate lists with certain chances of election.[53]

The left-wing Labour Party (EMEP) announced that they would not be taking part in the election, repeating its June 2015 tactic of forming an election alliance with the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).[54] It was reported that the HDP's Kurdish Islamist rival Free Cause Party (HÜDA-PAR) would form an alliance with the AKP, though this again failed to materialise and the HÜDA-PAR ended up not contesting the election.[55]

Several parties, many of which were not eligible to field their own candidates, instead endorsed other parties. A full list of endorsements are shown in the following table.

Boycotts[edit]

The Anatolia Party (ANAPAR), which had broken away from the Republican People's Party, announced that it would not contest the election. The party's leader Emine Ülker Tarhan claimed that they would not take part in an election called on the basis of Erdoğan's desire for a presidential system or the deaths of Turkish soldiers fighting the PKK. The party announced that it would not play Erdoğan's 'game' or participate in an election system that they criticised. Tarhan also referred to the safety of the election as 'debatable'.[60]

Both the Homeland Party (YURT-P) and the Rights and Equality Party (HEPAR) announced that they would boycott the elections, voicing concerns over President Erdoğan's controversial tactics and speculating that a new election would not give a different result.[61][62] However, it was also noted that the two parties were not eligible to contest the election in the first place.[61] The left-libertarian Freedom and Solidarity Party (ÖDP) also announced that it would not contest the election.[63] The Kurdish Islamist Free Cause Party (HÜDA-PAR) also ruled out contesting the election, claiming that it would not be a healthy means of gauging voters' opinions under the security circumstances in the south-east of the country.[64]

Despite submitting their candidate lists to the YSK before the deadline, the Centre Party later announced on 22 September that they were withdrawing from the election, claiming that they would instead be diverting efforts to improving their local branches and support. The party's leader Abdurrahim Karslı issued a statement criticising the AKP for ignoring the will of the people in the June 2015 vote and calling a new election, accusing the government of 'thoughtlessness and waywardness' in spending over ₺2 billion on calling the new vote.[39]

TURK Party controversy[edit]

Despite polling well below the 10% election threshold, the Social Reconciliation Reform and Development Party (TURK-P) took 72,701 votes in the June 2015 election. The unusually high votes cast for the party (especially in areas where the party had no campaign events such as Trabzon), was attributed to illiterate voters mistaking the party's logo for that of the AKP.[65] Following the election, the AKP took the TURK Party to court over the similarity in logos, with the TURK Party nevertheless being declared eligible to contest the November election by the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey (YSK). One day after submitting their candidate lists, the TURK Party was blocked from contesting the election by a court that ruled in favour of the AKP and declared the TURK Party's logo to be too similar to that of the AKP.[66] The decision was criticised by the opposition and was seen as an attempt by the AKP to increase their vote share through undemocratic means by eliminating parties that posed a direct threat to the AKP's votes. This claim was made again after the YSK ruled that the TURK Party was in fact not eligible to contest the election in the first place, even though they had previously stated otherwise.[67]

Campaigns[edit]

Justice and Development Party[edit]

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) began their election campaign with an ordinary congress held on 12 September 2015. Party leader and serving Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu stood as a candidate for re-election, though an apparent disagreement with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over Davutoğlu's provisional Central Decision Executive Board (MKYK) candidates caused Erdoğan's special advisor Binali Yıldırım to begin collecting signatures for a possible leadership bid. The disagreements were allegedly solved at the last minute, after which Yıldırım withdrew as a potential candidate. The party's by-laws were also changed to stop the 25th Parliamentary term counting towards AKP parliamentarians' three-term limit on the grounds that the parliamentary session only lasted for four months. The three-term limit was thus lifted for MPs in this election.

Critics accuse the AKP of purposely ending the solution process and sparking an outbreak in violence between the Turkish Armed Forces and the militant Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in order to win back disaffected voters from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).[5][6][7][8][9] The AKP has also been accused of attempting to render the security situation in south-eastern Turkey, where there had been a huge swing from the AKP to the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) in June's election, unfit for peaceful elections in order to reduce turnout and thus the HDP's vote share.[68][69][70][71] The opposition have accused the AKP of 'punishing' the south-east, especially the southern town of Cizre where the HDP won 85% of the vote in June, by imposing prolonged curfews lasting nearly a week to combat PKK militants there.[72][73]

Despite the short-lived tenure of the 25th Parliament, it was observed that 40% of the AKP's party candidate lists fielded in April for the June 2015 election had been changed by September. Notable changes included the candidacies of many of the party's high-profile founders such as Binali Yıldırım, Faruk Çelik and Ali Babacan, all of which had been unable to seek re-election in June for reaching their three-term limit. Former MHP MP Tuğrul Türkeş, who served as a Deputy Prime Minister in the interim election government, also became an AKP candidate from Ankara. Abdurrahim Boynukalın, who had been heavily criticised for his role in the assault on the Hürriyet newspaper headquarters in September 2015, was stripped from the AKP lists, though he later claimed that he himself had not applied to become a candidate.[74] Turkish folk music singer İbrahim Tatlıses, who had applied to become an AKP candidate for a third time, failed to make it onto the party lists.[75]

Republican People's Party[edit]

CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu announcing the party's election manifesto on 30 September

The Republican People's Party (CHP) announced their election manifesto on 30 September and renewed their pledge to increase the national minimum wage to ₺1,500. The party adopted the slogan 'Önce İnsan, Önce Birlik, Önce Türkiye,' which translates to 'People first, unity first, Turkey first'. Building on their June 2015 manifesto, which had been criticised for omitting policies for young people, the CHP also launched policies to increase internet freedom and offer financial relief to students going into debt during higher education.[76][77] The emphasis on young people was seen as significant by the polling company Andy-Ar, who stated that both the CHP and AKP had failed to capture the young vote despite a surge of young registered voters since 2002. Nevertheless, experts commented that the party's policies on solving the unrest in the south-east of the country to be insufficient.[78]

The party held its first electoral rally in Mersin on 3 October 2015, focusing mainly on the issues of terrorism and the economy.[79] Although the party produced an election song to accompany their Önce Türkiye slogan, events such as the manifesto announcement and rallies took place in rather subdued atmospheres in respect for fallen soldiers during the conflict in the south-east.[80][81] During the campaign, Kılıçdaroğlu revealed that the AKP had asked for assurances that the CHP would not pursue legal proceedings against President Erdoğan or his family should they enter a coalition, to which the CHP responded that it was up to the independent judiciary to pursue such proceedings if necessary.[82]

Nationalist Movement Party[edit]

MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli announcing his party's election manifesto on 3 October

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) set out their party lists in September, in which prominent MHP Member of Parliament Meral Akşener was stripped of her candidacy.[83] The move was attributed to party leader Devlet Bahçeli attempting to avoid strong rivals in any future leadership contest, causing a backlash on Twitter with the slogan "No Akşener, no vote either!".[84]

The MHP unveiled their manifesto on 3 October, renewing their commitment to raising the minimum wage to ₺1,400 and pledging to guarantee a job to at least one member of each family. The party also pledged to abolish university entrance exams and to give two one-off ₺1,400 payments to pensioners every year. On the issue of the growing unrest, the MHP produced a short video showing AKP and HDP politicians making false statements and contradicting themselves, in order to give the message that the MHP had been right to oppose the solution process after all.[85] In the event that the election produced the same outcome as the June election, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli claimed that they would form a coalition with any party apart from the HDP this time round.[86]

Peoples' Democratic Party[edit]

HDP supporters, led by co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş, marching to Cizre in September 2015 after their convoy was stopped by the police.
HDP co-leaders Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ after announcing the party's manifesto on 1 October

The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) co-leader Figen Yüksekdağ announced that the HDP was targeting a vote share close to 20%.[87] Following a Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) attack in Dağlıca that killed 16 soldiers, the HDP's other co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş cancelled a planned overseas trip in Germany and returned to Turkey.[2][88][89] The party, which has long been accused of supporting and maintaining links with the PKK, received criticism in the run-up to the elections after a breakout of violence in the south-east, with the governing AKP pursuing a strategy of associating the HDP as much as possible with the PKK's acts of terrorism. However, sources have maintained that the HDP maintains little control over PKK militants, with Demirtaş calling for both sides to return to peace through restarting the solution process and calling for the PKK to lay down their arms.[90]

The HDP announced its manifesto on 1 October, beginning with the slogan 'İnandına HDP, İnadına barış', which roughly translates to 'We insist on the HDP, we insist on peace!'. Their manifesto centred around the issues of democracy, peace and justice, with a commitment to restart the solution process.[91] The manifesto also pledged actions on workers' safety standards, tackling corruption and to reform the penal code. The HDP also made a commitment to recognising the Armenian Genocide, a pledge that was criticised by pro-government newspapers.[92]

Opinion polls[edit]

Opinion polling mainly showed that the AKP had increased their popularity since June by around 2-3% of the vote, though this was not enough to give them a parliamentary majority according to seat predictions. On the other hand, some polls (especially pro-opposition pollsters such as SONAR and Gezici) showed the AKP to have fallen below the 40% mark, with Gezici claiming that the AKP would win between 35-39% of the vote. Most pollsters, including those known to be close to the government, showed a 2-3% increase in the CHP's vote. The MHP's vote share was either shown to be stable or to have retracted by around 2-3%, which was attributed to the party's much criticised stance during the June–July 2015 Turkish Parliament speaker elections and the ending of the Solution process. Despite attempts to tarnish the HDP through accusing it of direct relations with the PKK, the HDP was shown in every poll to remain somewhat comfortably above the 10% threshold, making an AKP majority unlikely.

Restrictions on opposition pollsters[edit]

On 19 September, a group of Gezici employees conducting a poll were arrested by the police for allegedly not having the required documents to conduct polling research and were released shortly after. Gezici owner Murat Gezici denied these claims, stating that the company had all the required documentation since 2011.[93] The arrests came just before Gezici announced the results of their poll, which showed the AKP polling at between 35 and 39%.[94] With the government having been accused of trying to conduct a 'perception operation' by releasing biased polling results in past elections, many opposition journalists and commentators accused the government of trying to cover up their actual vote share by obstructing pro-opposition pollsters from conducting their research.[95]

Controversies[edit]

Security concerns[edit]

Turkish Army vehicles in Diyarbakır following the collapse of the solution process in July 2015
Aftermath of a PKK terrorist attack in Diyarbakır in August 2015

Since late 2012, the Turkish government had conducted peace negotiations with the Kurdish separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militant organisation in order to end 40 years of ethnic conflict in the predominantly Kurdish south-east of the country. The negotiations, called the solution process led to a relative ceasefire, though critics have claimed that the ceasefire has led to the PKK becoming stronger and their atrocities have gone unnoticed in an attempt by the government to preserve the solution process.[96]

On 20 July 2015, a suicide bombing in the Turkish-Syrian border town of Suruç perpetrated by an Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) militant led to the deaths of 32 activists from the Socialist Party of the Oppressed (ESP) youth wing. The activists were planning to cross the border to help relief efforts in the Kurdish town of Kobanî, which had been under siege by ISIL militants before being defeated by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). In retaliation, PKK militants killed two police officers in return for what they saw as collaboration between the Turkish government and ISIL, while ISIL militants directly engaged with Turkish military positions in the border town of Elbeyli, killing one soldier. In retaliation, the government authorised airstrikes against both PKK camps in Northern Iraq and ISIL positions in Syria.

The abandoning of both the solution process with the Kurdish rebels and the policy of inaction against ISIL by the Turkish government led to a resumption of violence in the south-east, with PKK militants resuming attacks on Turkish military and police positions.[97] Over 90 military or police personnel had been killed by 6 September 2015, raising concerns about whether peaceful elections could be held in the region.[98][99][100] The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş claimed that the conditions in the south-east were not adequate to hold peaceful elections, with party officials investigating the region having returned with negative reports.[101] In early September, three Republican People's Party (CHP) MPs visited Van, Hakkâri and the district of Yüksekova. Their report, which contained accounts from the Governor of Hakkâri and the Kaymakam of Yüksekova, stated that the HDP-run municipalities in the region were openly recruiting militants for the PKK and consulting them before taking decisions. The report also documented cases of PKK youth wing (YDG-H) members attempting to militarise the region, smuggling to finance their operations and forcing individuals to conduct PKK propaganda.[102]

Media censorship[edit]

Main article: Censorship in Turkey

Despite projections that the AKP's control over the media would decrease after losing their majority in June's elections, the government nevertheless launched controversial crackdowns on pro-opposition media outlets in the lead-up to the vote.[103] In September, international controversy arose over the arrest of 3 Vice News journalists on terrorism charges while covering the surge in unrest in south-eastern Turkey.[104] The members of Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTÜK), which regulates the Turkish media, failed to elect a new President due to a political deadlock, with the AKP, MHP or HDP candidate failing to win enough votes from partisan executive board members.[105]

On 1 September, police raids were conducted against 23 different companies belonging to the Kozan İpek Holding, which is known for its close relations with Gülen Movement. Businessman Akın İpek was taken into custody for allegedly being a director of an armed terrorist organisation, a charge that he claimed was nothing more than slander. TV channel Kanaltürk and the newspaper Bugün were among those targeted, with Bugün having issued headlines accusing the government of funding the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) earlier that day.[106] The raids against anti-AKP media outlets were criticised by Reporters Without Borders and several national journalists' associations.[107] In response to the crackdown against opposition media, the pro-opposition Sözcü newspaper carried a headline on their daily edition, stating 'If Sözcü falls silent, so will Turkey.'[108]

On 14 September 2015, a prosecutor ordered the impounding of all copies of the magazine Nokta, which had published an issue containing a photoshopped picture of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan taking a selfie in front of a soldier's funeral, on the grounds that it had 'insulted the President' and acted as 'propaganda for an armed terrorist organisation'. The magazine's lawyers argued that the impounding on the magazine without a proper court order was unlawful and stated that the country had taken yet another step back in terms of press freedom.[109]

In the early hours of 1 October, Hürriyet columnist and the presenter of the political talk show Tarafsız Bölge (Neutral Area), Ahmet Hakan, was attacked by four people outside his home.[110] He was admitted to hospital and was later taken into surgery. It was initially reported that the incident was a result of road rage with no relations to Hakan's journalism, though it later emerged that three of the four attackers were AKP members, who were later suspended from the party.[111][112] Abdurrahim Boynukalın, who had previously led a mob of 200 AKP supporters to attack the Hürriyet newspaper headquarters, was initially seen as a suspect, but later released a statement denying any link to the attack.[113] 7 people were taken into custody for the attack, with only one being arrested. One of the suspects involved claimed that the police had paid them ₺25,000 to carry out the attack, alleging that the National Intelligence Organisation (MİT), the police and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were all aware of the plot.[114]

On 3 October, thousands of journalists as well as members from numerous journalism associations held a demonstration at Taksim Square to protest the growing censorship of the press.[115][116]

Political violence[edit]

Aftermath of the attacks on the Hürriyet newspaper headquarters in early September 2015
The archives department of the HDP headquarters after being subject to an arson attack by Turkish nationalists in September 2015

On 6 September, a group of 200 AKP supporters attacked the headquarters of Doğan Media Centre, which houses the offices of the newspaper Hürriyet. The newspaper had published a news story about an interview with Erdoğan by another TV channel shortly after 16 soldiers were killed by PKK militants in Dağlıca. Erdoğan's comments, which included a claim that the attacks would have never had happened had the AKP won 400 seats in the June 2015, caused uproar and the newspaper was accused by AKP supporters of misquoting the President.[117] AKP MP and Youth Wing leader Abdurrahim Boynukalın led the mob against Hürriyet, drawing heavy criticism and subsequently being sent to court for inciting hatred and vandalism.[118] Another attack by a group of 100 protestors on Hürriyet occurred on 8 September in both their İstanbul and Ankara headquarters, this time opening fire on the building.[119][120] 6 people were arrested for the role in the attacks.[121]

After the Turkish military suffered heavy casualties in fights with the PKK in both Dağlıca and Iğdır, nationalist protestors staged demonstrations and many attacked HDP office branches in protest at the HDP's links with the PKK. The HDP's headquarters was also subject to an arson attack, though the ensuring fire was quickly put out.[122] Selahattin Demirtaş announced on 9 September that 400 HDP branch offices had come under attack in the last two days and accused the AKP's leaders of trying to push the country into civil war.[123][124][125] However, the Mayor of Cizre Leyla İmret, a member of the HDP's fraternal Democratic Regions Party (DBP), claimed that they would begin a civil war against Turkey from Cizre.[126] Fights between HDP and nationalists resulted in both deaths and injuries, while the workplace of a former HDP candidate was set alight by protestors.[127][128]

In addition to the HDP, the offices of CHP branch offices in Sincan and Konya came under attack, with the offices and vehicles outside them being heavily vandalised. It was alleged by the CHP that the perpetrators of the attacks in Sincan included members of the Ottoman Hearths (Osmanlı Ocakları).[129]

Ankara bombings[edit]

Main article: 2015 Ankara bombings

21 days before polling day on 10 October 2015, two suicide bombers targeted attendants at a peace rally taking place outside Ankara Central railway station, killing 97 people and injuring over 500 others according to some reports.[130] It was the deadliest terrorist attack in Turkish modern history, causing waves of public protests accusing the government of implicitly supporting and not doing enough to combat organisations such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).[131][132] The government denied the claims and announced three days of public mourning, while the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) blamed the governing AKP for the attack.[133] The bombings also raised concern over how suicide bombers managed to evade security measures to detonate two bombs in the centre of the capital, with the precise location of the attack in close proximity to the National Intelligence Organisation (MİT) headquarters.[134]

The bombing was followed by a series of gaffs by the AKP leader Ahmet Davutoğlu, who claimed after the attack that they had caught the perpetrators of previous attacks such as the Suruç bombing. This was impossible since the perpetrator at Suruç was a suicide bomber who was killed after detonating his explosives.[135] Later, Davutoğlu claimed that they had a list of suspected suicide bombers but could not make arrests until they actually carried out an attack. Both statements were subject to commotion and ridicule on social media.[136]

Safety and distribution of ballot boxes[edit]

The Ankara'nın Oyları (Ankara's Votes) election monitoring organisation giving a presentation to volunteers regarding ballot box safety. The pictured slide shows examples of invalid votes

In September 2015, the government allegedly began pressuring the YSK to divert voters living in villages linked to the south-eastern district of Cizre to the town centre instead, citing security concerns.[137] Cizre had been under an 8-day curfew while armed forced carried out a security operation against PKK militants before the government requested the 'merging' of ballot boxes. Such a decision would require villagers living in rural settlements having to make their way to the town centre to cast their vote instead.

On 23 September, a decision was taken by the Cizre Electioral Council to not set up polling stations in 23 villages and one hamlet. The decision would affect 48,687 out of around 66,000 registered voters in Cizre, forcing them to vote in different neighbourhoods.[138] The HDP objected to the decision and refuse to recognise its authority, claiming that it was an attempt to reduce the HDP vote by reducing turnout in the party's electoral strongholds.[139] Controversy over the decision grew even more when it emerged that it had been taken by just a single member of the electoral council, with the CHP representative stating that he had not been consulted.[140] Although the HDP renewed their opposition to the move, the CHP admitted that they would have supported the decision had they been consulted, stating that it was practically impossible to enter the affected neighbourhoods due to the unrest.[141] However, both the CHP Supreme Electoral Council representative and the President of the YSK himself stated that the decisions had no legal basis, stating that the YSK had to be consulted before such decisions could be made.[142][143] Despite the YSK's statement, a similar decision to not set up ballot boxes was taken on 28 September by the Yüksekova electoral council in Hakkari Province, requiring all ballot boxes in rural villages to be moved to the town centre.[144] On 3 October, the YSK voted against transferring ballot boxes, drawing heavy criticism from the AKP.[145]


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