Twilight in the Desert

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Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
Twilight in the Desert bookcover.jpg
Hardcover edition
AuthorMatthew Simmons
CountryUnited States
SubjectPetroleum industry in Saudi Arabia, peak oil
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Publication date
June 10, 2005
Media typePrint, e-book
Pages448 pp.

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy is a book by American investment banker Matthew Simmons.[1][2] The text was initially published on June 10, 2005 by John Wiley & Sons. The book focuses on the petroleum industry of Saudi Arabia and posits that this country is approaching—or already at—its peak oil output and cannot substantially increase its oil production.


In 2005, Matt Simmons wrote a book called Twilight in the Desert. In it, he summarized what he learned about Saudi Arabian oil production by reading 200 academic papers. He concluded from his analysis that the oil extraction techniques being used there were techniques that one might use if the fields were quite depleted. Because of this, he doubted that we should believe stories that Saudi oil production can be greatly expanded. Instead, he raised the possibility that in the not too distant future, Saudi oil production will suddenly decline. Matt's research underlying the book was no doubt behind his concern that oil reserves and oil production rates are not audited.

—Review on[3]

Simmons–Tierny bet[edit]

Simmons' prediction of rising oil prices made in Twilight in the Desert led to a bet with New York Times columnist John Tierney in August 2005. The two men bet US$10,000 that was the year-end average of the daily price-per-barrel of crude oil for the entire calendar year of 2010 adjusted for inflation would be at least $200, with Simmons predicting that it would be higher and Tierney taking the opposite position. The average price for a barrel of oil in 2010 turned out to be $80 ($71 in 2005 dollars, slightly higher than the $65 the price was when the bet was made), less than the $200 Simmons had predicted. Simmons died on August 8, 2010, and the bet was paid out by his colleagues in Tierney's favor.[4]

See also[edit]

Similarly themed books include:


  1. ^ "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy". Retrieved 2014-12-06.
  2. ^ "Twilight in the Desert by Matthew R Simmons". Retrieved 2014-12-06.
  3. ^ "Matt Simmons, Author of "Twilight in the Desert" and Peak Oil Speaker, Dies at Age 67". Retrieved 2014-12-09.
  4. ^ [1], The New York Times, By JOHN TIERNEY, Published: December 27, 2010

External links[edit]