Typhoon Nock-ten

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Typhoon Nock-ten (Nina)
Typhoon (JMA scale)
Category 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale)
Nock-ten 2016-12-25 0210Z (gallery).jpg
Typhoon Nock-ten approaching the Philippines at peak intensity on December 25
Formed December 20, 2016
Dissipated December 28, 2016
Highest winds 10-minute sustained: 195 km/h (120 mph)
1-minute sustained: 260 km/h (160 mph)
Lowest pressure 915 hPa (mbar); 27.02 inHg
Fatalities 13 total
Damage $127.5 million (2016 USD)
Areas affected Caroline Islands, Philippines, Vietnam
Part of the 2016 Pacific typhoon season

Typhoon Nock-ten, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Nina, was the strongest Christmas Day tropical cyclone worldwide in terms of 1-minute sustained winds.[1][2] Forming as a tropical depression southeast of Yap and strengthening into the twenty-sixth tropical storm of the annual typhoon season on December 21, 2016, Nock-ten intensified into the thirteenth typhoon of the season on December 23. Soon afterwards, the system underwent explosive intensification and became a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon early on December 25. Nock-ten weakened shortly afterwards before making eight landfalls over the Philippines.[3] The typhoon weakened rapidly due to the landfalls as it entered the South China Sea on December 26, turned southwest, and ultimately dissipated on December 28 due to the winter monsoon.

Nock-ten was the third typhoon to have caused significant impacts in the Philippines, after typhoons Sarika and Haima only two months prior, both of which struck similar areas at a similar intensity. 13 people were known to have been killed by Nock-ten. Damage totals were estimated upwards of US$127.5 million, and because of this, the names Nock-ten and Nina were retired by the Japan Meteorological Agency and PAGASA name lists, respectively.

Meteorological history[edit]

Map plotting the track and intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale

During December 20, the Japan Meteorological Agency started to monitor a tropical depression that had developed, about 1,090 km (675 mi) to the southeast of Yap Island in the Federated States of Micronesia.[4][5] The broad and poorly organized system was being affected by moderate to high vertical wind shear, which was being offset by warm sea surface temperatures.[5] Soon, the JTWC upgraded the system to a tropical depression, with the designation of 30W, based on improved environmental conditions and an ASCAT image.[6] Late on the same day, when central convection was increasing and consolidating over a defined low-level circulation center (LLCC), both the JMA and the JTWC upgraded it to a tropical storm, with the former assigning the name Nock-ten.[7][8] One day later, late on December 22, the JMA upgraded the system to a severe tropical storm, and Nock-ten started to form an eye revealed by microwave imagery.[9][10]

Tracking west-northwestward and then westward along the southern periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge, Nock-ten intensified into a typhoon at noon UTC on December 23.[11][12] Immediately after that, explosive intensification commenced with a sharp eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast feature.[13] At 06:00 UTC on December 24, Nock-ten reached its peak intensity with estimated ten-minute maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph) and the central pressure at 915 hPa (27.02 inHg); therefore, it was the latest-forming typhoon of such intensity or stronger on record.[14] The JTWC also upgraded Nock-ten to a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon, when the system was in an area of low vertical wind shear, excellent dual-channel outflow, and sea surface temperatures of 29 ºC.[15] Although the eye became cloud-filled in the afternoon, it cleared again again late on the same day and while the JMA did not raise its intensity estimate further, the JTWC did so.[16][17]

On December 25, the JTWC reported that the Dvorak technique analyses at 03:00 UTC from "all reporting agencies" indicated a T-number of 7.0;[18] therefore, the JTWC added a non-synoptic entry to the operational best track for that time, indicating one-minute maximum sustained winds of 260 km/h (160 mph), equivalent to Category 5 on the Saffir–Simpson scale.[19] However, land interaction soon impacted the typhoon, as its convective cloud tops had become warmer.[18] Later, Nock-ten made landfall over the Philippines eight times: Catanduanes at 18:30 PST (10:30 UTC) and Sagñay, Camarines Sur at 21:30 PST (13:30 UTC) on December 25; San Andres, Quezon at 02:00 PST (18:00 UTC), Torrijos, Marinduque at 04:30 PST (20:30 UTC), Verde Island, Batangas at 09:15 PST (01:15 UTC), Tingloy, Batangas at 10:10 PST (02:10 UTC), Calatagan, Batangas at 11:40 PST (03:40 UTC), and Lubang Island, Occidental Mindoro at 13:00 PST (05:00 UTC) on December 26.[20]

The eight landfalls significantly eroded Nock-ten, and the structure became much more asymmetric and ragged.[21] Thus, when Nock-ten emerged into the South China Sea early on December 26, it had weakened into a minimal typhoon.[22] Subsequently, although Nock-ten's structure briefly improved, it was downgraded to a severe tropical storm by the JMA and a tropical storm by the JTWC early on December 27, as its LLCC had started to become exposed.[23][24] Poleward outflow was no longer offsetting the effects of strong vertical wind shear, leading to rapid weakening.[25] After the JMA downgraded the system to a tropical storm at 09:00 UTC, Nock-ten further weakened to a tropical depression late on the same day.[26][27] Influenced by a Northeast Monsoon surge, the system accelerated southwestward, and convection was unable to develop over the fully exposed LLCC due to high vertical wind shear and colder dry air.[28] The JTWC issued its final warning for the system early on December 28, and the tropical depression dissipated in the afternoon.[29][30][31]

Preparations and impact[edit]

Highest PSWS raised by PAGASA across the Philippines in relation to Typhoon Nina (Nock-Ten)

Nock-ten made eight landfalls in the Philippines.[32] According to the NDRRMC, a total of 98,771 families were preemptively evacuated in CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol, and Eastern Visayas region.[33]

A total of 13 people have been reported dead while total damages have been reported up to 6.12 billion (US$127.5 million).[34]

Retirement[edit]

PAGASA has announced that the name Nina will be removed from their naming lists because it had caused over ₱1 billion in damages. On January 17, 2017, PAGASA chose the name Nika to replace Nina for the 2020 season.

During the 49th annual session of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee during 2017, they announced that the name Nock-ten will be removed from the naming lists. In March 2018, the Typhoon Committee finally chose Hinnamnor as its replacement name.[35]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Super Typhoon Nock-ten (Nina) Making Landfall on the Philippines on Christmas Day". The Weather Channel. December 25, 2016. 
  2. ^ "#Nockten's current intensity of 155 mph is strongest for TC anywhere around the globe on Christmas (UTC time) on record (since 1960)". Twitter. Phillip Klotzbach. December 25, 2016. 
  3. ^ "SitRep No.12 re Preparedness Measures for TY NINA (NOCK-TEN) page 94" (PDF). NDRRMC. Retrieved January 2, 2017. 
  4. ^ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Best Track: Typhoon Nockten". Japan Meteorological Agency. January 24, 2017. Archived from the original on January 24, 2017. Retrieved July 20, 2017. 
  5. ^ a b "Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans December 20, 2016 06z". United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 20, 2016. Archived from the original on December 20, 2016. Retrieved August 22, 2017. 
  6. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 30W (Thirty) Warning Nr 001". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 21, 2016. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  7. ^ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 211800". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 21, 2016. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  8. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 03". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 21, 2016. Archived from the original on December 21, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  9. ^ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 221800". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 22, 2016. Archived from the original on December 22, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  10. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 07". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 22, 2016. Archived from the original on December 22, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  11. ^ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 231200". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 23, 2016. Archived from the original on December 23, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  12. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 10". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 23, 2016. Archived from the original on December 23, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  13. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 11". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 23, 2016. Archived from the original on December 23, 2016. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  14. ^ Kitamoto, Asanobu. "Typhoon List (105kt or stronger in December)". Digital Typhoon. National Institute of Informatics. Retrieved January 24, 2017. 
  15. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 13". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 24, 2016. Archived from the original on December 24, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016. 
  16. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 14". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 24, 2016. Archived from the original on December 24, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016. 
  17. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 16". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 25, 2016. Archived from the original on December 25, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016. 
  18. ^ a b "Prognostic Reasoning for Super Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 17". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 25, 2016. Archived from the original on December 25, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016. 
  19. ^ "30W.NOCK-TEN Track File". United States Naval Research Laboratory. Retrieved December 24, 2016. 
  20. ^ "SitRep No.7 re Preparedness Measures for Typhoon "Nina" (I.N. NOCK-TEN)" (PDF). NDRRMC. December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016. 
  21. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 21". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 26, 2016. Archived from the original on December 26, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016. 
  22. ^ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 260600". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 26, 2016. Archived from the original on December 26, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2016. 
  23. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 22". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 26, 2016. Archived from the original on December 26, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  24. ^ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 270000". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  25. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 24". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  26. ^ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 270900". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  27. ^ "RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 271800". Japan Meteorological Agency. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  28. ^ "Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 27". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 27, 2016. Archived from the original on December 27, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  29. ^ "Tropical Depression 30W (Nock-ten) Warning Nr 28". Joint Typhoon Warning Center. December 28, 2016. Archived from the original on December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  30. ^ "Marine Weather Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2016-12-28T12:00:00Z". WIS Portal – GISC Tokyo. Japan Meteorological Agency. December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  31. ^ "Marine Weather Warning for GMDSS Metarea XI 2016-12-28T18:00:00Z". WIS Portal – GISC Tokyo. Japan Meteorological Agency. December 28, 2016. Retrieved December 30, 2016. 
  32. ^ "Sitrep_No_13_re_Preparedness_Measures_and_Effects_of_TY_NINA_NOCK-TEN" (PDF). January 9, 2017. 
  33. ^ "Sitrep_No_13_re_Preparedness_Measures_and_Effects_of_TY_NINA_NOCK-TEN" (PDF). January 9, 2017. 
  34. ^ "Sitrep_No_13_re_Preparedness_Measures_and_Effects_of_TY_NINA_NOCK-TEN" (PDF). January 9, 2017. 
  35. ^ "Replacement Names of HAIMA, SARIKA, NOCK-TEN and MERANTI in the Tropical Cyclone Name List" (PDF). ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee. February 21, 2018. 

External links[edit]