United Kingdom general election, 2015
|Colours denote the winning party, as shown in the main table of results.|
|2001 election • MPs|
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|2010 election • MPs|
The United Kingdom general election of 2015 was held on 7 May 2015 to elect the 56th Parliament of the United Kingdom. Voting took place in all 650 parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom, each electing one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons, the dominant house of Parliament. Local elections took place in most of England on the same day, excluding Greater London. It was the first general election to be held at the end of a fixed term parliament following the enactment of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.
Polls and commentators predicted the outcome would be too close to call and would result in a second hung parliament similar to the 2010 election, dubbing the vote 'the most unpredictable in decades.' Opinion polls were eventually proven to have underestimated the Conservative vote, which bore resemblance to their surprise victory in the 1992 general election. Having governed in coalition with the Liberal Democrats since 2010, the Conservatives won 330 seats and 36.9% of the vote, this time winning a working majority of 12. The British Polling Council began an inquiry into the variance between opinion polls and the actual result. The election marked the first time a Conservative majority government had been elected since 1992; David Cameron became the first Prime Minister to continue in office immediately after a full term with a larger popular vote share for his party since 1900 and the only Prime Minister other than Margaret Thatcher to continue in office immediately after a full term with a greater number of seats for his party. The Labour Party, led by Ed Miliband, saw a slight increase in their vote but incurred a net loss of seats, winning 30.4% and 232 seats. This was their lowest seat tally since 1987.
The Scottish National Party, having enjoyed a surge in support since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, became the third largest party in the Commons by winning 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland, mostly at the expense of Labour. The Liberal Democrats, led by the outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, had their worst result since 1970 and held just eight out of their previous 57 seats. Liberal Democrat cabinet ministers Vince Cable, Ed Davey, and Danny Alexander as well as former Cabinet Ministers Michael Moore and David Laws all lost their seats. A number of senior Labour shadow cabinet ministers, notably Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran, along with Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy, were defeated. The Green Party won their highest ever share of the vote with 3.8% and held their only seat of Brighton Pavilion with a larger majority. The campaign was marked by the growing support for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), which came third in terms of votes with 12.9% but only won a single seat, with party leader Nigel Farage failing to win the seat of South Thanet. Miliband (as national leader) and Murphy (as Scottish leader) resigned, as did Clegg and Farage, although Farage's resignation was rejected by his party and he remained in post.
- 1 Election process
- 2 Date of the election
- 3 MPs not standing for re-election
- 4 Contesting political parties and candidates
- 5 Campaign
- 6 Television debates
- 7 Endorsements
- 8 Opinion polling
- 9 Results
- 10 Aftermath
- 11 See also
- 12 Footnotes
- 13 References
- 14 External links
The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (as amended by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013) led to the dissolution of the 55th Parliament on 30 March 2015 and the scheduling of the election on 7 May, the House of Commons not having voted for an earlier date. There were local elections on the same day in most of England, with the exception of Greater London. No other elections were scheduled to take place in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, apart from any local by-elections.
All British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over the age of 18 on the date of the election were permitted to vote. In general elections, voting takes place in all parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom to elect members of parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the dominant (historically termed the lower) house of Parliament. Each parliamentary constituency of the United Kingdom elects one MP to the House of Commons using the "first past the post" system. If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition government.
Although the Conservative Party planned the number of parliamentary seats to be reduced from 650 to 600, through the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, the review of constituencies and reduction in seats was delayed by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 amending the 2011 Act. The next boundary review is now set to take place in 2018; thus the 2015 general election was contested using the same constituencies and boundaries as in 2010. Of the 650 constituencies, 533 are in England, 59 in Scotland, 40 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland.
In addition, the 2011 Act mandated a referendum in 2011 on changing from the current "first past the post" system to an alternative vote (instant-runoff) system for elections to the Commons. The Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement committed the coalition government to such a referendum. The referendum was held in May 2011 and resulted in the retention of the existing voting system. Before the previous general election, the Liberal Democrats had pledged to change the voting system, and the Labour Party pledged to have a referendum about any such change. The Conservatives, however, promised to keep the first past the post system, but to reduce the number of constituencies by 10%. Liberal Democrat plans were to reduce the number of MPs to 500 elected using a proportional system.
Ministers increased the amount of money that parties and candidates were allowed to spend on the election by 23%, a move decided against Electoral Commission advice. The election saw the first cap on spending by parties in individual constituencies during the 100 days before Parliament's dissolution on 30 March: £30,700, plus a per-voter allowance of 9p in county constituencies and 6p in borough seats. An additional voter allowance of more than £8,700 is available after the dissolution of Parliament. UK political parties spent £31.1m in the 2010 general election, of which Conservatives spent 53%, the Labour Party spent 25% and the Liberal Democrats 15%.
This was the first UK general election to use individual rather than household voter registration.
Date of the election
An election is called following the dissolution of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The 2015 General Election is the first to be held under the provisions of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Prior to this, the power to dissolve Parliament was a Royal Prerogative, exercised by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister. Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1716, as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, an election had to be announced on or before the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the previous parliament, barring exceptional circumstances. No Sovereign had refused a request for dissolution since the beginning of the 20th century, and practice had evolved such that a Prime Minister would typically call a general election to be held at a tactically convenient time within the final two years of a Parliament's lifespan, in order to maximize the chance of an electoral victory for his or her party.
Prior to the 2010 general election, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats pledged to introduce fixed-term elections. As part of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement, the Cameron ministry agreed to support legislation for fixed-term Parliaments, with the date of the next general election being 7 May 2015. This resulted in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which removed the Prime Minister's power to advise the monarch to call an early election. The Bill only permits an early dissolution if Parliament votes for one by a two-thirds supermajority, or if a vote of no confidence is passed by a majority and no new government is subsequently formed within 14 days. However, the Prime Minister does have the power, by order made by Statutory Instrument under section 1(5) of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, to provide that the polling day is to be held up to two months later than 7 May 2015. Such a Statutory Instrument must be approved by each House of Parliament. Under section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was amended to extend the period between the dissolution of Parliament and the following general election polling day from 17 to 25 working days. This had the effect of moving forward the date of the dissolution of the Parliament to 30 March 2015.
The key dates were:
|Monday 30 March||Dissolution of Parliament (the 55th) and campaigning officially began|
|Saturday 2 May||Last day to file nomination papers, to register to vote, and to request a postal vote|
|Thursday 7 May||Polling day|
|Monday 18 May||New Parliament (the 56th) assembled|
|Wednesday 27 May||State Opening of Parliament|
MPs not standing for re-election
While at the previous election there had been a record 148 MPs not standing for re-election, the 2015 election saw 90 MPs standing down. These comprised 38 Conservative, 37 Labour, 10 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Sinn Féin and 1 Plaid Cymru MP. The highest profile Members of Parliament leaving were: Gordon Brown, a former Prime Minister, Leader of the Labour Party (both 2007–2010) and Chancellor of the Exchequer (1997–2007); and William Hague, the outgoing First Secretary of State and Leader of the House of Commons and former Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (2010–2014), Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition (both 1997–2001). Alongside Brown and Hague, 17 former cabinet ministers stood down at the election, including Stephen Dorrell, Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, David Blunkett, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Dame Tessa Jowell. The highest profile Liberal Democrat to stand down was former leader Sir Menzies Campbell, while the longest-serving MP (the "Father of the House") Sir Peter Tapsell also retired, having served from 1959 to 1964 and then continuously since the 1966 general election.
Contesting political parties and candidates
As of 9 April 2015[update], the deadline for standing for the general election, the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties included 428 political parties registered in Great Britain, and 36 in Northern Ireland. Candidates who do not belong to a registered party can use an "independent" label, or no label at all.
The Conservative Party and Labour Party have been the two biggest parties since 1922, and have supplied all UK prime ministers since that date. Polls predicted that these parties would together receive between 65–75% of the votes and win 80–85% of seats between them and that as such the leader of one of these parties would be the prime minister after the election. The Liberal Democrats had been the third party in the UK for many years; but as described by various commentators, other parties have risen relative to the Liberal Democrats since the 2010 election. The Economist described a "familiar two-and-a-half-party system" (Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats) that "appears to be breaking down" with the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Greens and the Scottish National Party (SNP). Newsnight and The Economist have described the country as moving into a six-party system, with the Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and Greens all being significant. Ofcom, in their role regulating election coverage in the UK, have ruled that for the general election and local elections in May 2015, the major parties in Great Britain are the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, with UKIP a major party in England and Wales, the SNP a major party in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru (PC) in Wales, and that the Greens were not a major party. The BBC's guidelines are similar but exclude UKIP from the category of "larger parties" in Great Britain and instead state that UKIP should be given "appropriate levels of coverage in output to which the largest parties contribute and, on some occasions, similar levels of coverage". Seven parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, PC and Green) participated in the election leadership debates.
The main Great Britain-based parties—several parties operate in Northern Ireland only, which has a mainly separate political culture—are listed below in order of seats being contested:
- Conservative Party: led by David Cameron, the prime minister. The Conservatives were the larger party in the coalition government, having won the most seats (306) at the 2010 election. They stood in 647 seats (every seat except for two in Northern Ireland and the Speaker's seat).
- Labour Party: led by Ed Miliband, the leader of the opposition. Labour had been in power from 1997 to 2010. The party constituted Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition (also called the Official Opposition) after the 2010 election, having won 258 seats. They stood in 631 of Great Britain's 632 constituencies,[n 2] missing only the Speaker's seat.
- Liberal Democrats: led by Nick Clegg, the deputy prime minister. The Liberal Democrats were the junior member of the 2010–15 coalition government, having won 57 seats. The Lib Dems contested the same 631 seats as the Labour Party.
- UK Independence Party (UKIP): led by Nigel Farage MEP, who had not previously been in parliament but was standing in South Thanet in the general election. UKIP won the fourth most votes at the 2010 election, but failed to win any seats. They subsequently won two seats at by-elections in 2014 and won the highest share of votes at the 2014 European elections. They contested 624 seats across the United Kingdom.[n 3]
- Green parties: two distinct but cooperating Green parties operate in Great Britain: the Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW) and the Scottish Green Party, with opinion polling generally making no distinction between the two. The Green Party of England and Wales is led by Natalie Bennett, who had not previously been elected to Westminster, but stood in Holborn and St Pancras at the general election. The GPEW won the fourth largest share of votes in the 2014 European elections, ahead of the Liberal Democrats. The Scottish Green Party is co-led by Patrick Harvie MSP and councillor Maggie Chapman, neither of whom were standing for election to Westminster. Caroline Lucas was elected as the only Green MP in 2010, in which the two parties received a combined 1% of the vote and were seventh overall. The Greens stood in 568 seats in Great Britain.
- Scottish National Party (SNP): led by Nicola Sturgeon, who is First Minister of Scotland and did not stand in the general election. The SNP only contested seats in Scotland and stood in all 59 Scottish constituencies. The party got the second most votes in Scotland and sixth overall in 2010, winning six seats. It won the 2011 election to the Scottish Parliament and had a surge of support since the Scottish independence referendum in September 2014, in which they were the main political party behind the losing Yes campaign. Most projections suggested that they would be the third largest party overall after the 2015 election, in terms of seats won, overtaking the Liberal Democrats.
- Plaid Cymru: led by Leanne Wood, who is a member of the Welsh Assembly and did not stand in the general election. Plaid Cymru organise only in Wales, where they contested all 40 Welsh constituencies. The party has three MPs and were fourth in Wales (eighth in Great Britain) by vote share in 2010, later finishing third in the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections.
Dozens of other minor parties stood in Great Britain. The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, founded as an electoral alliance of socialist parties in 2010, had 135 candidates and was the only other party to have more than 40 candidates. Respect entered into the election with one MP (George Galloway), who was elected at the 2012 Bradford West by-election, but stood just four candidates. The British National Party, which finished fifth with 1.9% of the vote for its 338 candidates at the 2010 General Election, stood only eight candidates following a collapse in support. 753 other candidates stood at the general election, including all independents, Northern Ireland-based party candidates, and candidates from other parties.
- Alliance Party of Northern Ireland: the Alliance Party had one MP, Naomi Long, who was elected for the first time in 2010. (Long lost her seat in 2015.) They were fifth in the 2010 election by vote share, fifth overall in 2011 and sixth in 2014. Alliance has a relationship with the Liberal Democrats in Great Britain: the party's former leader sits in the House of Lords as a Liberal Democrat, but Alliance's one MP elected in 2010 sat on the opposition benches in the Commons and not with the Liberal Democrats on the government benches. The party contested all 18 Northern Irish constituencies in 2015.
- Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): the DUP won eight seats in 2010, making them the largest Northern Ireland political party, and the fourth biggest in the UK as a whole. The party also won the 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election, but were second in the 2014 European election. It contested 16 Northern Irish constituencies, having entered into an electoral pact with the Ulster Unionist Party in the remaining two.
- Sinn Féin: Sinn Féin won the most votes in Northern Ireland in 2010, but came second in seats, winning five constituencies. They were second in the 2011 Assembly elections, but first in the 2014 European elections. Sinn Féin follows an abstentionist policy with respect to the Commons and have never so far taken their seats there. The party also operates in the Republic of Ireland, where it does take seats in parliament. The party was standing in all 18 Northern Irish constituencies. Michelle Gildernew lost her seat in 2015, which she had held by only 4 votes in 2010, thus reducing the SF MPs from 5 to 4.
- Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP): the SDLP were third in terms of votes and seats in the 2010 and 2011 elections, and fourth in the 2014 European elections. Prior to dissolution the party had three MPs. The SDLP has a relationship with the Labour Party in Great Britain, with SDLP MPs generally following the Labour whip. The party was expected to have supported Labour in the event of a hung Parliament and contested all 18 constituencies at the election.
- Ulster Unionist Party (UUP): in 2010 the UUP shared an electoral alliance with the Conservative Party and finished fourth in terms of votes in Northern Ireland, but won no seats. The party does have one MEP, having placed third in the 2014 European elections. They were fourth in the 2011 Assembly elections. The UUP contested 15 seats; the party did not run in two seats because of its electoral pact with the DUP, and also did not nominate a candidate against former UUP member and incumbent independent MP Sylvia Hermon.
Smaller parties in Northern Ireland include Traditional Unionist Voice (standing in seven seats) and the Green Party in Northern Ireland (standing in five seats). TUV and the Greens each currently hold one seat in the Legislative Assembly. The North Down seat was retained by independent Sylvia Hermon. The Northern Ireland Conservatives and UKIP fielded candidates, whereas Labour and the Liberal Democrats do not contest elections in Northern Ireland.
Pacts and possible coalitions
With the United Kingdom electoral system, coalitions have been rare as one party has usually won an overall majority in the Commons. However, with the outgoing Government being a coalition and with opinion polls not showing a large or consistent lead for any one party, there was much discussion about possible post-election coalitions or other arrangements, such as confidence and supply agreements.
Some UK political parties that only stand in part of the country have reciprocal relationships with parties standing in other parts of the country. These include:
- Labour (in Great Britain) and SDLP (in Northern Ireland)
- Liberal Democrats (in Great Britain) and Alliance (in Northern Ireland)
- SNP (in Scotland) and Plaid Cymru (in Wales)
- Green Party of England and Wales (in England and Wales), Scottish Greens (in Scotland) and the Green Party in Northern Ireland (in Northern Ireland)
On 17 March 2015 the Democratic Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party agreed an election pact, whereby the DUP would not stand candidates in Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where Michelle Gildernew, the Sinn Féin candidate, won by only four votes in 2010) and in Newry and Armagh. In return the UUP would stand aside in Belfast East and Belfast North. The SDLP rejected a similar pact suggested by Sinn Féin to try to ensure that an agreed nationalist would win that constituency. The DUP also called on voters in Scotland to support whichever pro-Union candidate was best placed to beat the SNP.
The deadline for parties and individuals to file candidate nomination papers to the acting returning officer (and the deadline for candidates to withdraw) was 4 p.m. on 9 April 2015. The total number of candidates was 3,971; the second-highest number in history, slightly down from the record 4,150 candidates at the last election in 2010.
There were a record number of female candidates standing in terms of both absolute numbers and percentage of candidates: 1,020 (26.1%) in 2015, up from 854 (21.1%) in 2010. The proportion of female candidates for major parties ranged from 41% of Alliance Party candidates to 12% of UKIP candidates. According to UCL's Parliamentary Candidates UK project the major parties had the following percentages of black and ethnic minority candidates: the Conservatives 11%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, Labour 9%, UKIP 6%, the Greens 4%. The average age of the candidates for the seven major parties was 45.
The youngest candidates were all aged 18: Solomon Curtis (Labour, Wealden); Niamh McCarthy (Independent, Liverpool Wavertree); Michael Burrows (UKIP, Inverclyde); Declan Lloyd (Labour, South East Cornwall); and Laura-Jane Rossington (Communist Party, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport). The oldest candidate was Doris Osen, 84, of the Elderly Persons' Independent Party (EPIC), who was standing in Ilford North. Other candidates aged over 80 included three long-serving Labour MPs standing for re-election: Sir Gerald Kaufman (aged 84; Manchester Gorton), Dennis Skinner (aged 83; Bolsover) and David Winnick (aged 81; Walsall North).
A number of candidates—including two for Labour and two for UKIP — were suspended from their respective parties after nominations were closed. Independent candidate Ronnie Carroll died after nominations were closed.
Possibility of a hung Parliament
Hung Parliaments have been unusual in post-War British political history, but with the outgoing Government a coalition and opinion polls not showing a large or consistent lead for any one party, it was widely expected and predicted throughout the election campaign that no party would gain an overall majority, which could have led to a new coalition or other arrangements such as confidence and supply agreements. This was also associated with a rise in multi-party politics, with increased support for UKIP, the SNP and the Greens.
The question of what the different parties would do in the event of a hung result dominated much of the campaign. Smaller parties focused on the power this would bring them in negotiations; Labour and the Conservatives both insisted that they were working towards winning a majority government, while they were also reported to be preparing for the possibility of a second election in the year. In practice, Labour were prepared to make a "broad" offer to the Liberal Democrats in the event of a hung Parliament. Most predictions saw Labour as having more potential support in Parliament than the Conservatives, with several parties, notably the SNP, having committed to keeping out a Conservative government.
Conservative campaigning sought to scare the electorate about what they described as the dangers of a minority Labour administration supported by the SNP. This proved effective at dominating the agenda of the campaign and at motivating voters to support them. The Conservative victory was "widely put down to the success of the anti-Labour/SNP warnings", according to a BBC article and others. Labour, in reaction, produced ever stronger denials that they would cooperate with the SNP after the election.
The Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties rejected the idea of a coalition with the SNP. This was particularly notable for Labour, to whom the SNP had previously offered support: their manifesto stated that "the SNP will never put the Tories into power. Instead, if there is an anti-Tory majority after the election, we will offer to work with other parties to keep the Tories out." SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon later confirmed in the Scottish leaders' debate on STV that she was prepared to "help make Ed Miliband prime minister." However, on 26 April, Miliband ruled out a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP too. Miliband's comments suggested to many that he was working towards forming a minority government.
The Liberal Democrats said that they would talk first to whichever party won the most seats. They later campaigned on being a stabilising influence should either the Conservatives or Labour fall short of a majority, with the slogan "We will bring a heart to a Conservative Government and a brain to a Labour one."
Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats ruled out coalitions with UKIP. Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, asked about a deal with UKIP in the Scottish leaders' debate, replied, "No deals with UKIP." She continued that her preference and the Prime Minister's preference in a hung Parliament was for a minority Conservative government. UKIP say they could support a minority Conservative government through a confidence and supply arrangement in return for a referendum on EU membership before Christmas 2015. They also spoke of the DUP joining UKIP in this arrangement. UKIP and DUP said they would work together in Parliament. The DUP welcomed the possibility of a hung Parliament and the influence that this would bring them. The party's deputy leader, Nigel Dodds, said the party could work with the Conservatives or Labour, but that the party is "not interested in a full-blown coalition government". Their leader, Peter Robinson, said that the DUP would talk first to whichever party wins the most seats. The DUP said they wanted, for their support, a commitment to 2% defence spending, a referendum on EU membership, and a reversal of the under-occupation penalty. They opposed the SNP being involved in government. The UUP also indicated that they would not work with the SNP if it wanted another independence referendum in Scotland.
The Green Party of England & Wales, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party all ruled out working with the Conservatives, and agreed to work together "wherever possible" to counter austerity. Each would also make it a condition of any agreement with Labour that Trident nuclear weapons was not replaced; the Green Party of England and Wales stated that "austerity is a red line." Both Plaid Cymru and the Green Party stated a preference for a confidence and supply arrangement with Labour, rather than a coalition. The leader of the SDLP, Alasdair McDonnell, said, "We will be the left-of-centre backbone of a Labour administration", and that, "the SDLP will categorically refuse to support David Cameron and the Conservative Party". Sinn Féin reiterated their abstentionist stance. In the event, the Conservatives did secure an overall majority, rendering much of the speculation and positioning moot.
The deficit, who was responsible for it and plans to deal with it were a major theme of the campaign. While some smaller parties opposed austerity, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UKIP all supported some further cuts, albeit to different extents.
Conservative campaigning sought to blame the deficit on the previous Labour government. Labour, in return, sought to establish their fiscal responsibility. With the Conservatives also making several spending commitments (e.g. on the NHS), commentators talked of the two main parties' "political crossdressing", each trying to campaign on the other's traditional territory.
The first series of televised leaders' debates in the United Kingdom was held in the previous election. After much debate and various proposals, a seven-way debate with the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru was held. with a series of other debates involving some of the parties.
Various newspapers, organisations and individuals endorsed parties or individual candidates for the election.
Throughout the 55th parliament of the United Kingdom, first and second place in the polls without exception alternated between the Conservatives and Labour. Labour took a lead in the polls in the second half of 2010, driven in part by a collapse in Liberal Democrat support. This lead rose up to approximately 10 points over the Conservative Party during 2012, whose ratings dipped alongside an increase in UKIP support. UKIP passed the Liberal Democrats as the third-most popular party at the start of 2013. Following this, Labour's lead over the Conservatives began to fall as UKIP gained support from them as well, and by the end of the year Labour were polling at 39%, compared to 33% for the Conservative Party and 11% for UKIP.
UKIP received 26.6% of the vote at the European elections in 2014, and though their support in the polls for Westminster never reached this level, it did rise up to over 15% through that year. 2014 was also marked by the Scottish independence referendum. Despite the 'No' vote winning, support for the Scottish National Party rose quickly after the referendum, and had reached 43% in Scotland by the end of the year, up 23 points from the 2010 General Election, largely at the expense of Labour (−16 points in Scotland) and the Liberal Democrats (−13 points). In Wales, where polls were less frequent, the 2012–2014 period saw a smaller decline in Labour's lead over the second-placed Conservative Party, from 28 points to 17. These votes went mainly to UKIP (+8 points) and Plaid Cymru (+2 points). The rise of UKIP and SNP, alongside the smaller increases for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party (from around 2% to 6%) saw the combined support of the Conservative and Labour party fall to a record low of around 65%. Within this the decline came predominantly from Labour, whose lead fell to under 2 points by the end of 2014. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrat vote, which had held at about 10% since late 2010, declined further to about 8%.
Early 2015 saw the Labour lead continue to fall, disappearing by the start of March. Polling during the election campaign itself remained relatively static, with the Labour and Conservative parties both polling between 33–34% and neither able to establish a consistent lead. Support for the Green Party and UKIP showed slight drops of around 1–2 points each, while Liberal Democrat support rose up to around 9%. In Scotland, support for the SNP continued to grow with polling figures in late March reaching 54%, with the Labour vote continuing to decline accordingly, while Labour retained their (reduced) lead in Wales, polling at 39% by the end of the campaign, to 26% for the Conservatives, 13% for Plaid Cymru, 12% for UKIP and 6% for the Liberal Democrats. The final polls showed a mixture of Conservative leads, Labour leads and ties with both between 31–36%, UKIP on 11–16%, the Lib Dems on 8–10%, the Greens on 4–6%, and the SNP on 4–5% of the national vote.
In addition to the national polls, Lord Ashcroft funded from May 2014 a series of polls in marginal constituencies, and constituencies where minor parties were expected to be significant challengers. Among other results, Lord Ashcroft's polls suggested that the growth in SNP support would translate into more than 50 seats; that there was little overall pattern in Labour and Conservative Party marginals; that the Green Party MP Caroline Lucas would retain her seat; that both Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and UKIP leader Nigel Farage would face very close races to be elected in their own constituencies; and that Liberal Democrat MPs would enjoy an incumbency effect that would lose fewer MPs than their national polling implied. As with other smaller parties, their proportion of MPs remained likely to be considerably lower than that of total, national votes cast. Several polling companies included Ashcroft's polls in their election predictions, though several of the political parties disputed his findings.
Predictions one month before the vote
The first-past-the-post system used in UK general elections means that the number of seats won is not closely related to vote share. Thus, several approaches were used to convert polling data and other information into seat predictions. The table below lists some of the predictions. ElectionForecast was used by Newsnight and FiveThirtyEight. May2015.com is a project run by the New Statesman magazine.
Seat predictions draw from nationwide polling, polling in the constituent nations of Britain and may additionally incorporate constituency level polling, particularly the Ashcroft polls. Approaches may or may not use uniform national swing (UNS). Approaches may just use current polling, i.e. a "nowcast" (e.g. Electoral Calculus, May2015.com and The Guardian), or add in a predictive element about how polling shifts based on historical data (e.g. ElectionForecast and Elections Etc.). An alternative approach is to use the wisdom of the crowd and base a prediction on betting activity: the Sporting Index column below covers bets on the number of seats each party will win with the midpoint between asking and selling price, while FirstPastThePost.net aggregates the betting predictions in each individual constituency. Some predictions cover Northern Ireland, with its distinct political culture, while others do not. Parties are sorted by current number of seats in the House of Commons:
as of 9 Apr 2015
as of 12 April 2015
as of 3 April 2015
as of 12 April 2015
as of 12 April 2015
as of 12 April 2015
|First Past the Post
as of 12 April 2015
|DUP||8||Included under Other||GB forecast only||Included under Other||Included under Other||No market||8.7|
|SDLP||3||Included under Other||GB forecast only||Included under Other||Included under Other||No market||2.7|
(including 18 NI seats)
|GB forecast only, but
above may not sum to 632
due to rounding
(including 18 NI seats)
(including 18 NI
|Overall result (probability)||Hung parliament (93%)||Hung parliament (60%)||Hung parliament (80%)||Hung parliament||Hung parliament||Hung parliament||Hung parliament|
Other predictions were published. An election forecasting conference on 27 March 2015 yielded 11 forecasts of the result in Great Britain (including some included in the table above). Averaging the conference predictions gives Labour 283 seats, Conservatives 279, Liberal Democrats 23, UKIP 3, SNP 41, Plaid Cymru 3 and Greens 1. In that situation, no two parties (excluding a Lab-Con coalition) would have been able to form a majority without the support of a third. On 27 April, Rory Scott of the bookmaker Paddy Power predicted Conservatives 284, Labour 272, SNP 50, UKIP 3, and Greens 1. LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph predicted for Northern Ireland: DUP 9, Sinn Féin 5, SDLP 3, Sylvia Hermon 1, with the only seat change being the DUP gaining Belfast East from Alliance.
Final predictions before the vote
Percentage shares of votes, as predicted in the first week of May:
|Party||BMG||TNS-BNRB ||Opinium||ICM||YouGov||Ipsos MORI||Ashcroft||Comres||Panelbase||Populous||Survation|
|Lead||Tie||Con +1||Con +1||Lab +1||Tie||Con +1||Tie||Con +1||Lab +2||Tie||Tie|
- PC Includes Plaid Cymru
Seats predicted on May 7:
||First Past the Post
|DUP||8||Included under Other||GB forecast only||Included under Other||Included under Other||No market||8.7|
|SDLP||3||Included under Other||GB forecast only||Included under Other||Included under Other||No market||2.7|
|Other||Sinn Féin 5
Sylvia Hermon 1
|18 (including 18 NI seats)||1, although its GB forecast only,
18 NI seats
|18 (including 18 NI seats)||19 (including 18 NI seats
& Respect 1)
|No market||Sinn Féin 4.7
|Overall result (probability)||Hung parliament (100%)||Hung parliament (92%)||Hung parliament (91%)||Hung parliament||Hung parliament||Hung parliament||Hung parliament||Hung parliament|
|Scottish National Party||58|
|UK Independence Party||2|
|Conservatives 10 short of majority|
This predicted the Conservatives to be 10 seats short of an absolute majority, although with the 5 predicted Sinn Féin MPs not taking their seats, it was likely to be enough to govern. (In the event, Michelle Gildernew lost her seat, reducing the number of Sinn Féin MPs to 4.)
The exit poll was markedly different from the pre-election opinion polls, which had been fairly consistent; this led many pundits and MPs to speculate that the exit poll was inaccurate, and that the final result would have the two main parties closer to each other. Former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown vowed to "eat his hat" and former Labour "spin doctor" Alastair Campbell promised to "eat his kilt" if the exit poll, which predicted huge losses for their respective parties, was right.
As it turned out, the results were even more favourable to the Conservatives than the poll predicted, with the Conservatives obtaining 330 seats, an absolute majority. Ashdown and Campbell were presented with hat- and kilt-shaped cakes (labelled "eat me") on BBC Question Time on 8 May.
Opinion polling inaccuracies and scrutiny
With the eventual outcome in terms of both votes and seats varying substantially from the bulk of opinion polls released in the final months before the election, the polling industry received criticism for their inability to predict what was a surprisingly clear Conservative victory. Several theories have been put forward to explain the inaccuracy of the pollsters. One theory was that there had simply been a very late swing to the Conservatives, with the polling company Survation claiming that 13% of voters made up their minds in the final days and 17% on the day of the election. The company also claimed that a poll they carried out a day before the election gave the Conservatives 37% and Labour 31%, though they said they did not release the poll (commissioned by the Daily Mirror) on the concern that it was too much of an outlier with other poll results.
However, it was reported that pollsters had in fact picked up a late swing to Labour immediately prior to polling day, not the Conservatives. It was reported after the election that private pollsters working for the two largest parties actually gathered more accurate results, with Labour's pollster James Morris claiming that the issue was largely to do with surveying technique. Morris claimed that telephone polls that immediately asked for voting intentions tended to get a high 'don't know' or a high anti-government reaction, whereas longer telephone conversations conducted by private polls that collected other information such as views on the leaders' performances placed voters in a much better mode to give their true voting intentions. Another theory was the issue of 'shy Tories' not wanting to openly declare their intention to vote Conservative to pollsters. A final theory, put forward after the election, was the 'Lazy Labour' factor, which claimed that Labour voters tend to not vote on polling day whereas Conservative voters have a much higher turnout.
|Of total||Of total|
|Conservative Party||David Cameron||330||50.8%||
330 / 650
|Labour Party||Ed Miliband||232||35.7%||
232 / 650
|Scottish National Party||Nicola Sturgeon||56||8.6%||
56 / 650
|Liberal Democrats||Nick Clegg||8||1.2%||
8 / 650
|Democratic Unionist Party||Peter Robinson||8||1.2%||
8 / 650
|Sinn Féin||Gerry Adams||4||0.6%||
4 / 650
|Plaid Cymru||Leanne Wood||3||0.5%||
3 / 650
|Social Democratic & Labour Party||Alasdair McDonnell||3||0.5%||
3 / 650
|Ulster Unionist Party||Mike Nesbitt||2||0.3%||
2 / 650
|UK Independence Party||Nigel Farage||1||0.2%||
1 / 650
|Green Party||Natalie Bennett||1||0.2%||
1 / 650
1 / 650
1 / 650
|Candidates||Total||Gained||Lost||Net||Of total (%)||Total||Of total (%)||Change[a] (%)|
|Liberal Democrat||Nick Clegg||631||8||0||48||−48||1.2||2,415,888||7.9||−15.1|
|Plaid Cymru||Leanne Wood||40||3||0||0||0||0.5||181,694||0.6||0.0|
|Sinn Féin||Gerry Adams||18||4||0||1||−1||0.6||176,232||0.6||0.0|
|National Health Action[f]||Richard Taylor &
|People Before Profit||Collective||1||0||0||0||0||0||7,854||0.0||0.0|
|Yorkshire First||Richard Carter||14||0||0||0||0||0||6,811||0.0||New|
|English Democrats||Robin Tilbrook||35||0||0||0||0||0||6,531||0.0||−0.2|
|Mebyon Kernow||Dick Cole||6||0||0||0||0||0||5,675||0.0||0.0|
|Lincolnshire Independents||Marianne Overton||5||0||0||0||0||0||5,407||0.0||0.0|
|Monster Raving Loony||Alan "Howling Laud" Hope||27||0||0||0||0||0||3,898||0.0||0.0|
|Independent Save Withybush Save Lives||Chris Overton||1||0||0||0||0||0||3,729||0.0||New|
|Socialist Labour||Arthur Scargill||8||0||0||0||0||0||3,481||0.0||0.0|
|Christian Peoples||Sidney Cordle||17||0||0||0||0||0||3,260||0.0||0.0|
|Workers' Party||John Lowry||5||0||0||0||0||0||2,724||0.0||0.0|
|North East Party||Hilton Dawson||4||0||0||0||0||0||2,138||0.0||0.0|
|Poole People||Mike Howell||1||0||0||0||0||0||1,766||0.0||New|
|Residents for Uttlesford||John Lodge||1||0||0||0||0||0||1,658||0.0||New|
|Rochdale First Party||Farooq Ahmed||1||0||0||0||0||0||1,535||0.0||New|
|Communist||Robert David Griffiths||9||0||0||0||0||0||1,229||0.0||New|
|National Front||Kevin Bryan||7||0||0||0||0||0||1,114||0.0||0.0|
|Communities United||Kamran Malik||5||0||0||0||0||0||1,102||0.0||New|
|Reality||Mark "Bez" Berry||3||0||0||0||0||0||1,029||0.0||New|
|The Southport Party||David Cobham||1||0||0||0||0||0||992||0.0||New|
|All People's Party||Prem Goyal||4||0||0||0||0||0||981||0.0||New|
|Bournemouth Independent Alliance||David Ross||1||0||0||0||0||0||903||0.0||New|
|Scottish Socialist||Executive Committee||4||0||0||0||0||0||875||0.0||0.0|
|Alliance for Green Socialism||Mike Davies||4||0||0||0||0||0||852||0.0||0.0|
|Your Vote Could Save Our Hospital||Sandra Allison||1||0||0||0||0||0||849||0.0||New|
|Wigan Independents||Gareth Fairhurst||1||0||0||0||0||0||768||0.0||New|
|Animal Welfare||Vanessa Hudson||4||0||0||0||0||0||736||0.0||0.0|
|Something New||James Smith||2||0||0||0||0||0||695||0.0||New|
|Independents Against Social Injustice||Steve Walmsley||1||0||0||0||0||0||603||0.0||New|
|Independence from Europe||Mike Nattrass||5||0||0||0||0||0||578||0.0||New|
|Guildford Greenbelt Group||Susan Parker||1||0||0||0||0||0||538||0.0||New|
|Class War||Ian Bone||7||0||0||0||0||0||526||0.0||New|
|Above and Beyond||Mark Flanagan||5||0||0||0||0||0||522||0.0||New|
|Workers Revolutionary||Sheila Torrance||7||0||0||0||0||0||488||0.0||0.0|
|Left Unity||Kate Hudson||3||0||0||0||0||0||455||0.0||New|
- This column shows the change in vote share percentage from the 2010 general election to the 2015 general election. It does not account for by-elections.
- BBC News includes the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, in the MP tally and the vote tally for the Conservatives. See About these results, BBC News (30 April 2015). In this table, however, the speaker (who usually does not vote in the Commons) is listed separately, and has been removed from the Conservative tally.
- Includes votes and candidates for the Green Party of Northern Ireland and Scottish Green Party.
- The UUP did not run itself in 2010; instead, it ran candidates under the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists banner.
- Several MPs who were each formally affiliated with a party at the beginning of the 55th Parliament were either suspended or had resigned from their parties by the time Parliament was dissolved and became independents; see here for details.
- BBC News lists the National Health Action Party together with Independent Community and Health Concern (formerly known as Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern), which is affiliated with the larger party, for a total of 20,210 votes. The Guardian lists each party separately. Health Concern received 7,211 of the votes attributed to the National Health Action Party.
- 66 parties, none of which contested more than 2 constituencies, each with under 300 votes
- The BBC groups together the votes under the Scottish Christian Party (1,467 votes); Christian Party (1,040 votes); and Christian (698 votes) labels, for a total of 3,205 votes. The Guardian lists these designations separately.
- Candidates who do not specify a party or Independent are categorised as No description
Geographic voting distribution
|This section does not cite any references or sources. (September 2015)|
Despite most opinion polls predicting the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck, the Conservatives secured a clear lead over their rivals and took a working majority of 12 (in practice increased to 15 due to Sinn Féin's 4 MPs' abstention). Conservative party leader and incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron subsequently formed a majority single-party government, while their former Liberal Democrat coalition partners suffered their worst defeat since the 1970 general election.
Winning just eight seats, the Liberal Democrats were tied with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland in the House of Commons, with Nick Clegg being one of the few MPs from his party to retain his seat. The Liberal Democrats gained no seats, and lost 48: 26 to the Conservatives, 12 to Labour and 10 to the SNP.
The Labour Party polled below expectations and won 30.4% of the vote and 232 seats, 24 fewer than their previous result in 2010. Their net loss of seats were mainly a result of their resounding defeat in Scotland, where the Scottish National Party took 39 of their seats and unseated key Labour politicians such as shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy. Murphy faced calls for his resignation after his party was left with just a single seat in Scotland. Labour lost a further nine seats to the Conservatives, and were left with their lowest share of the seats since the 1987 general election. Ed Miliband subsequently tendered his resignation as Labour leader.
The above table shows that four Independents lost their seats. The former Labour MP Eric Joyce's seat went to the SNP, while the former Liberal Democrat Mike Hancock's seat went to the Conservatives, Hancock obtaining only 716 votes.
Despite threats that voting for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) would result in a Labour government, UKIP were only able to hold one of their two seats and gain no new ones, with media commentators unable to make out whether it had been a good or a bad election result for UKIP. Despite being placed firmly in third place in terms of votes with 12.9%, UKIP were left with only one seat and the party's leader Nigel Farage crucially failed to win the constituency of Thanet South and tendered his resignation as a result. His resignation was rejected by his party's executive council and he stayed on as leader.
The election led to an increase in the number of female MPs, to 191 (29% of the total, including 99 Labour; 68 Conservative; 20 SNP; 4 other) from 147 (23% of the total, including 87 Labour; 47 Conservative; 7 Liberal Democrat; 1 SNP; 5 other). As before the election, the region with the largest proportion of women MPs was North East England.
Seats changing hands and MPs who lost their seats
111 seats changed hands compared to the result in 2010 plus three by-election gains reverted to the original winner.
The Conservatives lost 11 seats (10 to Labour and one to UKIP in Clacton) and gained 35 (27 from the Liberal Democrats and eight from Labour) making a net gain of 24 seats.
The 10 Conservative seats lost to Labour were Brentford and Isleworth, Chester, Dewsbury, Ealing Central and Acton, Enfield North, Hove, Ilford North, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Wirral West, and Wolverhampton South West.
Labour lost 48 seats (40 to the SNP and 8 to the Conservatives) and gained 22 (12 from the Liberal Democrats and 10 from the Conservatives) making a net loss of 26 seats.
The eight seats lost by Labour to the Conservatives were Bolton West, Derby North, Gower, Morley and Outwood, Plymouth Moorview, Southampton Itchen, Telford and Vale of Clywd.
The Liberal Democrats lost 49 seats (27 to the Conservatives, 12 to Labour and 10 to the SNP) leaving them with eight.
The SNP gained 50 seats (40 from Labour and 10 from the Liberal Democrats) and lost none giving them 56 out of a maximum 59. The three Scottish seats that eluded the SNP were Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Conservative), Edinburgh South (Labour), and Orkney and Shetland (Liberal Democrat).
The Alliance Party lost its only seat (East Belfast) to the DUP.
The DUP lost one seat (South Antrim) to the UUP leaving them with eight.
Sinn Féin lost one seat (Fermanagh and South Tyrone) to the UUP leaving them with four.
Three seats won at by-elections by Labour, UKIP and Respect, respectively, returned to the party that won in 2010: Conservative (Corby, Rochester and Strood) and Labour (Bradford West; The Respect Party).
On 8 May, three party leaders announced their resignations within an hour of each other: Ed Miliband (Labour) and Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat) resigned due to their parties' worse-than-expected results in the election, although both had been re-elected to their seats in Parliament. Nigel Farage (UKIP) offered his resignation because he had failed to be elected as MP for Thanet South, but said he might re-stand in the resulting leadership election. However, on 11 May, the UKIP executive rejected his resignation on the grounds that the election campaign had been "a great success", and Farage agreed to continue as party leader.
In response to Labour's poor performance in Scotland, Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy initially resisted calls for his resignation by other senior party members. Despite surviving a no-confidence vote by 17-14 from the party's national executive, Murphy announced he would step down as leader on or by 16 May.
Financial markets reacted positively to the result, with the pound sterling rising against the Euro and US dollar when the exit poll was published, and the FTSE 100 stock market index rising 2.3% on 8 May. The BBC reported: "Bank shares saw some of the biggest gains, on hopes that the sector will not see any further rises in levies. Shares in Lloyds Banking Group rose 5.75% while Barclays was 3.7% higher", adding, "Energy firms also saw their share prices rise, as Labour had wanted a price freeze and more powers for the energy regulator. British Gas owner Centrica rose 8.1% and SSE shares were up 5.3%". BBC economics editor Robert Peston noted: "To state the obvious, investors love the Tories' general election victory. There are a few reasons. One (no surprise here) is that Labour's threat of breaking up banks and imposing energy price caps has been lifted. Second is that investors have been discounting days and weeks of wrangling after polling day over who would form the government - and so they are semi-euphoric that we already know who's in charge. Third, many investors tend to be economically Conservative and instinctively Conservative."
The disparity between the numbers of votes and the number of seats obtained by the smaller parties gave rise to increased calls for replacement of the 'first-past-the-post' voting system with a more proportional system. For example, UKIP had 3.9 million votes per seat, whereas SNP had just 26,000 votes per seat, about 150 times greater representation for each vote cast. It is worth noting, however, that UKIP stood in 10 times as many seats as the SNP. Noting that UKIP's 13% share of the overall votes cast had resulted in the election of just one MP, Nigel Farage argued that the UK's voting system needed reforming, saying, "Personally, I think the first-past-the-post system is bankrupt".
Re-elected Green Party MP Caroline Lucas agreed, saying her party had "made history" and had had the "most successful election campaign ever, with almost a million people voting Green". She added: "The political system in this country is broken […] It's ever clearer tonight that the time for electoral reform is long overdue, and it's only proportional representation that will deliver a Parliament that is truly legitimate and better reflects the people it is meant to represent."
Over the weekend following the election, a series of protests were reported in London and Cardiff, with two police hospitalisations and fifteen arrests. The protests in London of between 100 and 500 people were centred around Downing Street. In Cardiff, singer Charlotte Church was part of the rally. The purpose of these demonstrations seems to have been to criticise austerity.
Daily Telegraph investigation of abuse of Wikipedia
Following the election, the Daily Telegraph detailed changes to Wikipedia pages made from computers with IP addresses inside Parliament raising suspicion that “MPs or their political parties deliberately hid information from the public online to make candidates appear more electable to voters” and a deliberate attempt to hide embarrassing information from the electorate.
- Category:UK MPs 2015–20
- List of MPs elected in the United Kingdom general election, 2015
- List of MPs for constituencies in England 2015–20
- List of MPs for constituencies in Northern Ireland 2015–20
- List of MPs for constituencies in Scotland 2015–20
- List of MPs for constituencies in Wales 2015–20
- United Kingdom local elections, 2015
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