2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

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United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018

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Turnout64.85%[1]
  Kyrsten Sinema by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg Martha McSally official portrait (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,191,100 1,135,200
Percentage 50.0% 47.6%

Arizona Senate Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County results

Sinema:      50–60%      60–70%

McSally:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Senator before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona and replace Senator Jeff Flake, who did not run for re-election. It was held concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

The candidate filing deadline was May 30, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 28, 2018. Martha McSally won the Republican Party primary, and Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic Party primary. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot but withdrew and endorsed Sinema.[2] This election featured an all-female ballot for U.S. Senator, with three women on the ballot. Write-in candidates included Democrat Sheila Bilyeu, Libertarian Party candidate Barry Hess, Republican Robert Kay, and Jonathan Ringham of The Old Republic, among others.[3] The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018.[4] McSally conceded shortly afterwards.[5] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988 when former Democratic Senator Dennis DeConcini last ran for election to this seat.

Background[edit]

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state has remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016.[6] The last Democrat to win a Senate election in Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in 1988.

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[7] Flake had said in March 2017 that he was running for reelection, but was considered vulnerable due to low approval ratings, a tenuous relationship with President Trump, and a primary challenge from former State Senator Kelli Ward.[8][9][10][11]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

On the ballot[edit]

Not on the ballot

Failed to file

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements[edit]

Martha McSally
Federal officials
United States Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Mayors
Individuals
  • Suzanne Klapp, Scottsdale City Councilwoman[48]
Organizations
Kelli Ward
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
U.S. Military Personnel
Individuals
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Arpaio
Martha
McSally
Kelli
Ward
Other Undecided
Data Orbital August 21–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 18% 48% 22% 1% 8%
OH Predictive Insights August 14–15, 2018 578 ± 4.1% 13% 47% 27% 12%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–25, 2018 576 ± 4.1% 15% 35% 27% 23%
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 24% 36% 27% 14%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 18% 32% 19% 7%[74] 23%
Data Orbital June 19–21, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 17% 38% 23% 2% 21%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 371 ± 6.7% 21% 30% 28% <1% 21%
OH Predictive Insights June 11–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 14% 39% 25% 22%
Remington (R-McSally) May 23–24, 2018 2,011 ± 2.3% 25% 42% 23% 10%
Magellan Strategies (R) April 11–12 and 15, 2018 755 ± 3.6% 26% 36% 25% 6% 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 302 ± 5.6% 22% 27% 36% 15%
Data Orbital January 11–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 22% 31% 19% 27%
OH Predictive Insights January 9, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 29% 31% 25% 15%
WPA Intelligence (R-McSally) November 15–16, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 38% 36% 26%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 323 ± 5.5% 34% 42% 24%
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 380 ± 3.0% 21% 32% 15%[75] 34%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  McSally—60–70%
  McSally—50–60%
  McSally—40–50%
  McSally—<40%
  Arpaio—<40%
Republican primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally 357,626 54.6
Republican Kelli Ward 180,926 27.6
Republican Joe Arpaio 116,555 17.8
Republican Nicholas N. Glenn (write-in) 121 0.0
Republican William Gonzales (write-in) 70 0.0
Total votes 655,298 100.0

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

On the ballot[edit]

Not on the ballot

Failed to file

[15]

Withdrew

  • Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher[84][85]

Declined

Endorsements[edit]

Deedra Abboud
Organizations
Kyrsten Sinema
Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Deedra
Abboud
Kyrsten
Sinema
Other Undecided
Data Orbital June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 7% 63% 2% 29%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 8% 51% 12%[147] 30%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Sinema—80–90%
  Sinema—70–80%
  Sinema—60–70%
Democratic primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 404,170 79.25
Democratic Deedra Abboud 105,800 20.75
Total votes 509,970 100.0

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Removed[edit]

Green primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Removed[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Green—100%
  No votes
Green primary results[76]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angela Green (write-in) 389 100.0
Total votes 389 100.0

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate.

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[151] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[152] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[153] Lean D November 5, 2018
CNN[154] Tossup October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[155] Tossup October 30, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[156] Lean D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[157] Tossup October 26, 2018
Fox News[158] Tossup October 30, 2018

Endorsements[edit]

Martha McSally (R)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D) $19,287,249 $20,249,341 $1,301,542
Martha McSally (R) $16,211,836 $13,688,178 $2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[202]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Martha
McSally (R)
Kyrsten
Sinema (D)
Angela
Green (G)
Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 4–5, 2018 1,217 ± 2.8% 47% 45% 2% 6%
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 49%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 47%
OH Predictive Insights November 2–3, 2018 631 ± 3.9% 49% 48% 0% 1%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 48% 49% 2% 2%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 46%
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 45% 1% 10%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 44%
Gravis Marketing October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 47% 46% 7%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 42%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 30 – November 1, 2018 2,166 ± 2.1% 47% 50% 2% 1%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 48% 52%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 48% 43%
Fox News October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 46% 46% 3% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% 4% 6%
CNN/SSRS October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 47% 51% 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 45% 48% 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 4% 5%
Marist College October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 44% 47% 6% <1% 3%
44% 50% 2% 4%
793 RV ± 4.4% 43% 45% 7% <1% 5%
43% 49% 2% 6%
YouGov October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 44% 47% 3% 5%
Ipsos October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 48% 46% 3% 3%
OH Predictive Insights October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 52% 45% 1% 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 15–19, 2018 606 ± 4.2% 48% 46% 1% 6%
Data Orbital October 16–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 47% 3% 1% 8%
Change Research (D-Garcia) October 9–10, 2018 783 44% 44% 11%
YouGov October 2–5, 2018 898 44% 47% 3% 6%
OH Predictive Insights October 1–2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% 4% 8%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 45% 47% 2% 6%
806 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% 2% 8%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 52% 49%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 2% 0% 11%
Latino Decisions September 10–25, 2018 463 LV 41% 47% 11%
610 RV 37% 43% 17%
Emerson College September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 39% 45% 4% 13%
Marist College September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 43% 45% 6% <1% 6%
45% 48% <1% 7%
763 RV ± 4.2% 41% 44% 6% <1% 8%
44% 47% <1% 9%
CNN/SSRS September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 43% 50% 0% 3%
854 RV ± 4.1% 41% 48% 1% 6%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 4% 5%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 46% 51% 1% 3%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 44% 47% 2% 5%
801 RV ± 3.5% 42% 46% 3% 7%
Gravis Marketing September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 49% 48% 3%
OH Predictive Insights September 5–6, 2018 597 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 6%
Data Orbital September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 42% 46% 2%[203] 9%
OH Predictive Insights July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 48% 8%
Gravis Marketing June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 39% 43% 19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 44% 48% 7%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 32% 40% 9% 20%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 869 LV 37% 45% 7% 10%
998 RV ± 3.7% 34% 41% 8% 14%
Marist College June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 49% 2% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 42% 51% 7%
OH Predictive Insights April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 48% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 41% 46% 13%
OH Predictive Insights November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%
Revily (R-Ward) October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 29% 33% 37%

Results[edit]

Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[204]

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018[205]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 1,191,100 49.96% +3.77%
Republican Martha McSally 1,135,200 47.61% -1.61%
Green Angela Green 57,442 2.41% N/A
Libertarian Barry Hess (write-in) 365 0.02% -4.53%
The Old Republic Jonathan Ringham B (write-in) 46 0.00% N/A
None Michael DeCarlo (write-in) 45 0.00% N/A
Democratic Sheila Bilyeu (write-in) 42 0.00% N/A
Republican Robert Kay (write-in) 37 0.00% N/A
Independent Jeff Pearce (write-in) 29 0.00% N/A
ATP Edward Davida (write-in) 2 0.00% N/A
Total votes 2,384,308 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

References[edit]

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External links[edit]

Official campaign websites