United States Senate election in California, 2018

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United States Senate election in California, 2018

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  Dianne Feinstein, official Senate photo 2.jpg KDL-Portrait.jpg
Candidate Dianne Feinstein Kevin de León
Party Democratic Democratic

Blank California Map.svg

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Dianne Feinstein
Democratic



The 2018 United States Senate election in California will take place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of California, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Under California's non-partisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. In the California system, the top two finishers—regardless of party—advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate receives a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. Washington, Louisiana have similar "jungle primary" style processes for U.S. Senators, as does Mississippi (for special elections only).

The candidate filing deadline was March 8, 2018 and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018.[1]

Four-term Democratic incumbent Dianne Feinstein won reelection in 2012 with 63% of the vote, taking the record for the most popular votes in any U.S. Senate election in history with 7.86 million votes.[2] Feinstein is the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. She turned 85 years old in 2018, leading to speculation that she would retire in January 2019,[3][4] as her long-time colleague Barbara Boxer did in January 2017. However, Feinstein stood for reelection for her fifth consecutive term, winning 44.2% of the vote in the top-two primary; she will face Democratic challenger Kevin De León in the general election, who won 12.1% of the primary vote.[5]

Candidates[edit]

Democratic Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Republican Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Arun K. Bhumitra, businessman[9]
  • James P. Bradley, businessman[29]
  • Jack Crew, bus driver[29]
  • Erin Cruz, published author[30]
  • Rocky De La Fuente, entrepreneur and perennial candidate[31]
  • Jerry Joseph Laws, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[29]
  • Patrick Little, neo-Nazi[32][33][34]
  • Kevin Mottus, candidate for the U.S Senate in 2016[9]
  • Mario Nabliba, scientist[9]
  • Tom Palzer, activist, retired city planner and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[29]
  • Paul Allen Taylor, businessman[35]

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Donald R. Adams, businessman[36]
  • Gary Coson[37]
  • John Estrada[38]
  • Timothy Charles Kalemkarian, perennial candidate[39]
  • Caren Lancona, businesswoman[40]
  • Jazmina Saavedra, businesswoman and activist[41]
  • Stephen James Schrader, veteran[42]

Declined[edit]

Libertarian Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Derrick Michael Reid, retired attorney and engineer and candidate for President in 2016[49]

Green Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Michael V. Ziesing (write-in)[50]

Peace and Freedom Party[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • John Thompson Parker[29]

No party preference[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Colleen Shea Fernald, perennial candidate[29]
  • Tim Gildersleeve, businessman and researcher[51]
  • Rash Bihari Ghosh[29]
  • Michael Fahmy Girgis[29]
  • Don J. Grundmann, California Constitution Party chairman and perennial candidate[52] (Constitution)[a]
  • Jason M. Hanania[29]
  • David Moore (Socialist Equality)[a][53]
  • Lee W. Olson[54]
  • Ursula M. Schilling (write-in)[50]
  • Ling Ling Shi, evangelist[55]

Withdrawn[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b No ballot access: Constitution Party and Socialist Equality Party. Don J. Grundmann (C) and David Moore (SEP) appear on ballot as "No party preference".[29]

Primary election[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Dianne Feinstein (D)
Former U.S. President
Former U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin de León (D)
Individuals
  • Tom Steyer, billionaire, hedge fund manager, philanthropist, environmentalist, liberal activist, and fundraiser[86]
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Pat Harris (D)
Organizations
  • Tri-Valley Democratic Club
  • F.U.N Progressives
Individuals
Alison Hartson (D)
Individuals
Organizations
David Hildebrand (D)
Local-level officials
Professionals
  • Stephen Jaffe, Employment Attorney, candidate for U.S. Congress[109]
  • Michael Bracamontes, Civil Rights Attorney, former candidate for California Governor[109]
  • Stephen Seager, Mental Health Expert, Author, Documentary Filmmaker[109]
  • Kevin Murray, Professor of Politics, Humboldt State University[109]
Organizations
  • Candidates with a Contract[110]
  • Wellstone Progressive Democrats of Sacramento - Our Revolution[109]
  • Courageous Resistance of Humboldt - Our Revolution[109]
  • Our Revolution West Marin[109]
  • Yolo County Progressives - Our Revolution[109]
  • Feel the Bern Democratic Club of Los Angeles[109]
  • Labor Campaign for Single Payer[109]
  • Not Me Us - We are the Revolution[109]
  • Bernie Sanders Megagroup 2020[109]
  • Ventura County Activists for Bernie Sanders 2020 #OurRevolution[109]
  • Stanislaus County for Bernie 2020[109]
  • The People's News[109]
James Bradley (R)
Individuals
Erin Cruz (R)
Individuals
Organizations
Patrick Little (R)
Politicians
  • David Duke, white nationalist and former Louisiana State Representative[118]
Derrick Michael Reid (L)
Organizations
John Thompson Parker (PFP)
Organizations

Fundraising[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of May 16, 2018
Candidate Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Dianne Feinstein (D) $9,953,612 $5,342,658 $7,035,307
Kevin de León (D) $1,135,538 $441,847 $693,689
Pat Harris (D) $703,982 $650,225 $51,017
Alison Hartson (D) $298,296 $189,652 $108,643
Arun K. Bhumitra (R) $53,668 $40,835 $12,832
David Hildebrand (D) $27,111 $25,816 $1,294
Erin Cruz (R) $26,442 $23,190 $3,251
Douglas Howard Pierce (D) $9,000 $62,392 $11,200
Paul Allen Taylor (R) $9,128 $8,803 $324
Tom Palzer (R) $0 $45 $45
David Moore (SEP) $3,480 $3,480 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[122]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
James P.
Bradley
(R)
Erin
Cruz
(R)
Pat
Harris
(D)
Rocky De
La Fuente
(R)
Kevin
de León
(D)
Dianne
Feinstein
(D)
Alison
Hartson
(D)
Patrick
Little
(R)
Other Undecided
UC Berkeley May 22−28, 2018 2,106 ± 3.5% 7% 11% 36% 21%[123] 25%
Emerson College May 21–24, 2018 600 ± 4.2% 5% 6% 4% 6% 38% 4% 6% 32%
YouGov May 12–24, 2018 1,113 ± 4.0% 6% 2% 2% 4% 11% 36% 1% 1% 14%[124] 23%
SurveyUSA May 21, 2018 678 ± 6.1% 9% 2% 2% 3% 11% 36% 1% 0% 14%[125] 21%
Public Policy Institute of California May 11–20, 2018 901 ± 4.1% 17% 41% 5% 36%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times April 18 – May 18, 2018 517 ± 4.0% 3% 1% 2% 0% 7% 31% 1% 2% 10%[126] 41%
Gravis Marketing May 4–5, 2018 525 ± 4.3% 19% 13% 8% 32% 6% 5%[127] 16%
SurveyUSA April 19–23, 2018 520 ± 5.5% 8% 8% 38% 4% 18% 6%[128] 17%
UC Berkeley April 16–22, 2018 1,738 ± 3.5% 10% 11% 28% 14%[129] 35%
Public Policy Institute of California March 4–13, 2018 1,706 ± 3.4% 16% 42% 2% 39%
Public Policy Institute of California January 21–30, 2018 1,705 ± 3.2% 17% 46% 3% 33%
UC Berkeley December 7–16, 2017 672 ± 3.8% 27% 41% 32%
Public Policy Institute of California November 10–19, 2017 1,070 ± 4.3% 21% 45% 1% 33%
Sextant Strategies & Research September 2017 1,197 ± 3.4% 15% 38% 29%[130] 17%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Feinstein—60–70%
  Feinstein—50–60%
  Feinstein—40–50%
  Feinstein—30–40%
  Feinstein—20–30%
  Feinstein—<20%
  Feinstein & Bradley tie—14.9%
Nonpartisan blanket primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dianne Feinstein (incumbent) 2,947,035 44.2
Democratic Kevin de León 805,446 12.1
Republican James P. Bradley 556,252 8.3
Republican Arun K. Bhumitra 350,815 5.3
Republican Paul A. Taylor 323,533 4.9
Republican Erin Cruz 267,494 4.0
Republican Tom Palzer 205,183 3.1
Democratic Alison Hartson 147,061 2.2
Republican Rocky De La Fuente 135,278 2.0
Democratic Pat Harris 126,947 1.9
Republican John "Jack" Crew 93,806 1.4
Republican Patrick Little 89,867 1.3
Republican Kevin Mottus 87,646 1.3
Republican Jerry Joseph Laws 67,140 1.0
Libertarian Derrick Michael Reid 59,999 0.9
Democratic Adrienne Nicole Edwards 56,172 0.8
Democratic Douglas Howard Pierce 42,671 0.6
Republican Mario Nabliba 39,209 0.6
Democratic David Hildebrand 30,305 0.5
Democratic Donnie O. Turner 30,101 0.5
Democratic Herbert G. Peters 27,468 0.4
No party preference David Moore 24,614 0.4
No party preference Ling Ling Shi 23,506 0.4
Peace and Freedom John Thompson Parker 22,825 0.3
No party preference Lee Olson 20,393 0.3
Democratic Gerald Plummer 18,234 0.3
No party preference Jason M. Hanania 18,171 0.3
No party preference Don J. Grundmann 15,125 0.2
No party preference Colleen Shea Fernald 13,536 0.2
No party preference Rash Bihari Ghosh 12,557 0.2
No party preference Tim Gildersleeve 8,482 0.1
No party preference Michael Fahmy Girgis 2,986 0.0
Green Michael V. Ziesing (write-in) 842 0.0
No party preference Ursula M. Schilling (write-in) 17 0.0
Democratic Seelam Prabhakar Reddy (write-in) 4 0.0
Total votes 6,670,720 100.0

General election[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Dianne Feinstein (D)
Former Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin de León (D)
Individuals
  • Tom Steyer, billionaire, hedge fund manager, philanthropist, environmentalist, liberal activist, and fundraiser[153]
U.S. Representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations

Fundraising[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of July 29, 2018
Candidate Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Dianne Feinstein (D) $14,994,029 $13,660,951 $3,757,433
Kevin de León (D) $1,318,244 $892,279 $425,963
Source: Federal Election Commission[122]

Predictions[edit]

Because of California’s top-two runoff system, the seat is guaranteed to be won/held by a Democrat since the initial primary produced two Democratic candidates.

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[165] Solid D (Feinstein) November 14, 2017
Inside Elections[166] Solid D (Feinstein) November 14, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[167] Safe D (Feinstein) November 15, 2017
Daily Kos[168] Safe D (Feinstein) April 9, 2018
Fox News[169] Likely D (Feinstein)^ July 9, 2018
CNN[170] Solid D (Feinstein) July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[171] Safe D (Feinstein) June 27, 2018

^Highest rating given

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dianne
Feinstein (D)
Kevin
de León (D)
Not
voting
Other Undecided
Public Policy Institute of California July 8–17, 2018 1,020 ± 4.3% 46% 24% 20% 9%
SurveyUSA June 26–27, 2018 559 ± 5.9% 46% 24% 31%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times June 6–17, 2018 767 ± 4.0% 36% 18% 46%
Probolsky Research (R) April 16–18, 2018 900 ± 3.3% 38% 27% 35%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times October 27 – November 6, 2017 1,296 ± 4.0% 58% 31% 31%[172] 10%
Sextant Strategies & Research September 2017 1,197 ± 3.4% 36% 17% 28% 19%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in California, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Dianne Feinstein (incumbent)
Democratic Kevin de León
Majority
Total votes
Democratic hold Swing +37.5

References[edit]

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  119. ^ Libertarian Party of California (April 29, 2018). "2018 LPC Convention Day 2" – via YouTube. 
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  123. ^ Paul Taylor (R) 4%, other Republicans 9%, other Democrats 6%, all other candidates 2%
  124. ^ Paul Taylor (R) with 2%; Adrienne Nicole Edwards (D), David Hildebrand (D), Herbert Peters (D), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), Arun Bhumitra (R), Jack Crew (R), Kevin Mottus (R), Mario Nabliba (R), Tom Palzer (R), Derrick Michael Reid (L), Ling Ling Shi (NPP), none of the above with 1%; all other candidates 0%
  125. ^ Arun Bhumitra (R) 4%; Jack Crew (R) 3%; Adrienne Nicole Edwards (D), Don J. Grundmann (C), Kevin Mottus (R), Tom Palzer (R), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), Derrick Michael Reid (L), and Paul Taylor (R) with 1%; Colleen Shea Fernald (NPP), Rash Ghosh (NPP), Tim Gildersleeve (NPP), Michael Fahmy Girgis (NPP), Jason Hanania (NPP), David Hildebrand (D), Jerry Laws (R), David Moore (SEP), Mario Nabliba (R), Lee W. Olson (NPP), John Thompson Parker (PFP), Herbert Peters (D), Gerald Plummer (D), Ling Ling Shi (NPP), and Donnie Turner (D) with 0%
  126. ^ Herbert Peters (D), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), Donnie Turner (D), Derrick Michael Reid (L), John Thompson Parker (PFP), Arun Bhumitra (R), Jerry Laws (R), Mario Nabliba (R), Paul Taylor (R), and David Moore (SEP) with 1%; Adrienne Nicole Edwards (D), David Hildebrand (D), Gerald Plummer (D), Jack Crew (R), Kevin Mottus (R), Tom Palzer (R), Colleen Shea Fernald (NPP), Rash Ghosh (NPP), Tim Gildersleeve (NPP), Michael Fahmy Girgis (NPP), Don J. Grundmann (C), Jason Hanania (NPP), Lee W. Olson (NPP), and Ling Ling Shi (NPP) with 0%; Other 0%; Not voting 0%
  127. ^ John Melendez* (D) 3%, David Hildebrand (D) 2%. *Withdrawn
  128. ^ John Melendez* (D) 4%, Other 2%. *Withdrawn.
  129. ^ Other Republicans 8%, Other non-Republicans 6%
  130. ^ 29% not voting
  131. ^ David Hildebrand (D) 2%; Donald Adams (R), Jerry Leon Carroll (NPP), Pat Harris (D), Richard Mead (NPP), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), Steve Stokes (D), and Michael Ziesing (G) with 1%; Clifton Roberts (H) 0%; Other 1%.
  132. ^ Pat Harris (D), David Hildebrand (D), Clifton Roberts (H), Steve Stokes (D), and Michael Ziesing (G) with 1%; Donald Adams (R), Jerry Leon Carroll (NPP), Michael Eisen (NPP), Tim Gildersleeve (NPP), Charles Junior Hodge (NPP), Richard Mead (NPP), and Douglas Howard Pierce with 0%
  133. ^ Stephen Schrader (R) 4%; Pat Harris (D), John Melendez (D), and Michael Ziesing (G) with 2%; David Hildebrand (D) and Steve Stokes (D) with 1%; Donald Adams (R), Jery Leon Carroll (NPP), Michael Eisen (NPP), Tim Gildersleeve, Charles Junior Hodge (NPP), Richard Mead (NPP), Douglas Howard Pierce (D), and Clifton Roberts (H) with 0%
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  135. ^ "Biden endorses Feinstein's re-election bid: 'She's tenacious. She's accomplished'". TheHill. 2018-03-29. Retrieved 2018-04-04. 
  136. ^ Marinucci, Carla (September 14, 2017). "Senator Kamala Harris, darling of progressives, says she'd support a Feinstein re-election bid '100 percent'". Politico. Retrieved September 15, 2017. 
  137. ^ CNN, Eric Bradner,. "#2020Vision: Harris backs Feinstein". CNN.com. Retrieved January 20, 2018. 
  138. ^ Hart, Angela (2018-02-26). "Republican drops out of race for California governor". Sacbee.com. Retrieved 2018-04-04. 
  139. ^ "Nancy Pelosi endorses Dianne Feinstein for re-election to Senate, heading off possible primary challengers". Fox News. October 31, 2017. 
  140. ^ "Gov. Jerry Brown endorses Sen. Dianne Feinstein". Los Angeles Times. April 10, 2018. Retrieved April 18, 2018. 
  141. ^ Bad news comes in bunches for Kevin de León: Key lawmaker backs Feinstein
  142. ^ Mehta, Seema. "Los Angeles Times". LATimes.com. Retrieved January 20, 2018. 
  143. ^ Cadelago, Christopher (October 20, 2017). "Steinberg chooses Feinstein in 'difficult' decision". The Sacramento Bee. 
  144. ^ "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 16, 2017. 
  145. ^ "Equality California Endorses U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein in 2018 Reelection Race". www.eqca.org. 
  146. ^ "HRC Endorses California Senator Dianne Feinstein for re-election". Human Rights Campaign. April 18, 2018. Retrieved April 19, 2018. 
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  148. ^ "Federal Endorsements by the NOW PAC | National Organization for Women Political Action Committees". nowpac.org. August 23, 2017. 
  149. ^ "Dianne Feinstein". Project100.org. Project100Women.org. Retrieved November 18, 2017. 
  150. ^ Palmer Report (2018-02-25). ""Palmer Report endorses Dianne Feinstein in the Democratic primary. She's spent decades skillfully using her seat to move America to the left. Her primary opponent is well intentioned, but purist progressive foot stompers rarely deliver actual progress for the left."". Twitter.com. Retrieved 2018-04-04. 
  151. ^ "Editorial: Chronicle recommends Dianne Feinstein for U.S. Senate". San Francisco Chronicle. 2018-04-18. Retrieved 2018-04-19. 
  152. ^ "Reelect Sen. Dianne Feinstein". Los Angeles Times. 2018-05-04. Retrieved 2018-05-04. 
  153. ^ "Billionaire Democratic activist Tom Steyer endorses Kevin de Leon in his insurgent bid against Sen. Dianne Feinstein". Los Angeles Times. April 18, 2018. Retrieved April 19, 2018. 
  154. ^ "Kevin de León announces run against Dianne Feinstein, setting up Democratic clash in Senate race". The Mercury News. 15 October 2017. 
  155. ^ Roberts, Jerry. "Newsmakers With Jerry Roberts | Santa Barbara, California". Newsmakers With Jerry Roberts | Santa Barbara, California. 
  156. ^ "4 SF supervisors back de Leon against Feinstein in U.S. Senate race". San Francisco Chronicle. 
  157. ^ Tolan, Casey (July 14, 2018). "California Democratic Party endorses De León for Senate, in rebuke for Feinstein". Mercury News. Retrieved July 14, 2018. 
  158. ^ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/california-democratic-party-abandons-incumbent-feinstein-endorses-opponent-n891556
  159. ^ "Armenian Committee endorses Kevin de León for U.S. Senate". January 9, 2018. Retrieved January 9, 2018. 
  160. ^ Ford, Mary Kelly (November 8, 2017). "Cal Berkeley Democrats endorses Delaine Eastin for California governor, Kevin de León for US Senate". The Daily Californian. Retrieved November 10, 2017. 
  161. ^ "CLIMATE HAWKS VOTE SURVEYS CALIFORNIA MEMBERS: KEVIN DE LEON OR DIANNE FEINSTEIN?". Climate Hawks Vote. Retrieved November 3, 2017. 
  162. ^ Mehta, Seema; Mason, Melanie (October 15, 2017). "California Senate leader Kevin de León announces he will challenge Sen. Dianne Feinstein". Los Angeles Times. 
  163. ^ "Democracy for America : Democracy for America backs Kevin de León in California U.S. Senate race". www.democracyforamerica.com. 
  164. ^ "Gavin Newsom, Kevin de León win backing of major California labor group". sfchronicle.com. 
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  171. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018. 
  172. ^ a b c Cite error: The named reference USC2017 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites