United States Senate election in Florida, 2016

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United States Senate election in Florida, 2016
Florida
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
  Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Patrick Murphy crop.jpg
Nominee Marco Rubio Patrick Murphy
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,835,191 4,122,088
Percentage 51.98% 44.31%

Florida Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg

U.S. Senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio ran for another term but faced well-funded Republican primary opposition after initially announcing he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat. He had openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for President in 2016.[2][3][4] He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and President in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from simultaneously appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.[5]

In April 2015, Rubio announced that he was running for President and would not seek re-election.[6][7][8][9] Rubio had initially said he would not run for re-election to the Senate even if he dropped out of the GOP presidential primary (which he did after losing Florida on March 15, 2016) before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline was June 24, 2016.[10][11]

On June 13, 2016, despite his previous statements that he would not run for re-election to his Senate seat, Rubio "seemed to open the door to running for re-election," citing the previous day's Orlando mass shooting and how "it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country."[12] On June 22, 2016, Rubio announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate, reversing his pledge not to run.[13]

On August 30, the Republican Party nominated Marco Rubio, and the Democratic Party nominated Representative Patrick Murphy. Rubio won with the largest raw vote total in Florida history, taking a greater percentage of the popular vote than Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who won the state in the election. He is the first Republican Senator from Florida since 1994, and only the second with Connie Mack, to be reelected to a second term. Also, with Mel Martinez's victory in 2004, this marks the first time that Republicans have won one of Florida's Senate seats three times in a row (Mack succeeded Lawton Chiles, a Democrat, and was succeeded by another Democrat, Bill Nelson).

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Carlos
Beruff
Ron
DeSantis
David
Jolly
Ilya
Katz
Carlos
López-Cantera
Marco
Rubio
Todd
Wilcox
Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon August 22–24, 2016 400 ± 5% 22% 61% 15%
Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 2016 327 ± 5.4% 8% 69% 5% 15%
Florida Chamber of Commerce August 17–22, 2016 249 ± 4.0% 19% 68% 10%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016 479 ± 4.5% 14% 68% 18%
Suffolk University August 1–3, 2016 183 ± 4.4% 12.1% 61.8% 26%
St. Pete Polls August 2, 2016 1,835 ± 2.3% 21.7% 55.0% 23.2%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2016 555 ± 4.1% 11% 63% 13%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 19–20, 2016 487 ± 4.4% 5% 57% 4% 34%
St. Leo University June 10–16, 2016 500 ± 7% 4.0% 4.6% 4.0% 0.6% 2.9% 52.0% 2.3% 27.2%
8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 1.7% 8.7% 5.2% 56.6%
Mason-Dixon May 31–June 2, 2016 400 ± 5% 17% 10% 13% 9% 2% 49%
News 13/Bay News 9 March 4–6, 2016 724 ± 3.7% 1% 11% 18% 4% 9% 7% 50%
Washington Post/Univision March 2–5, 2016 450 ± 5.5% 0% 6% 5% 6% 2% 81%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 464 ± 4.6% 14% 26% 11% 2% 47%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business January 15–18, 2016 345 ± 5.2% 8% 28% 8% 57%
St. Pete Polls/Saint Petersblog December 14–15, 2015 2,694 ± 1.9% 17.6% 20.7% 10.3% 7.5% 43.9%
St. Leo University November 29–December 3, 2015 147 ± 8% 6.1% 11.6% 4.1% 8.2% 6.8% 63.3%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 377 ± 5.1% 15% 18% 14% 52%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[119]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marco Rubio (Incumbent) 1,029,830 71.99%
Republican Carlos Beruff 264,427 18.49%
Republican Dwight Young 91,082 6.37%
Republican Ernie Rivera 45,153 3.16%
Total votes 1,430,492 100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and Independent candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2014 (running as an Independent)[126][127]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Alan
Grayson
Pam
Keith
Lateresa
Jones
Patrick
Murphy
Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon August 22–24, 2016 400 ± 5% 22% 4% 55% 19%
Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 2016 364 8% 7% 54% 22%
Florida Chamber of Commerce August 17–22, 2016 258 ± 4.0% 11% 40% 38%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016 532 ± 4.5% 17% 8% 48% 27%
Suffolk University August 1–3, 2016 194 ± 4.4% 17.2% 2.4% 35.7% 44.7%
St. Pete Polls August 2, 2016 1,807 ± 2.3% 20.1% 7.2% 44.7% 27.9%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2016 618 ± 4.0% 21% 10% 30% 35%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 19–20, 2016 530 ± 4.3% 15% 5% 19% 62%
Targeted Persuasion June 14–16, 2016 862 ± 3.34% 30% 5% 27% 38%
St. Leo University June 10–16, 2016 500 ± 7% 13.5% 2.7% 4.3% 15.7% 61.1%
Mason-Dixon May 31–June 2, 2016 400 ± 5% 23% 3% 31% 43%
Public Policy Polling March 22–23, 2016 829  ? 33% 32% 35%
St. Leo University March 13–17, 2016 540 ± 5% 17% 20% 63%
Mason-Dixon March 7–9, 2016 500 ± 4.5% 19% 33% 48%
SurveyUSA March 4–6, 2016 592 ± 4.1% 16% 11% 27% 46%
Bendixon & Amandi/The Tarrance Group March 2–5, 2016 449 ± 6% 19% 27% 54%
Univision March 2–5, 2016 449 ± 6% 29% 36% 35%
Public Policy Polling February 24–25, 2016 388 ± 5% 33% 22% 45%
20/20 Insight LLC* ~February 16–18, 2016 646 ± 3.9% 41% 32% 27%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business January 15–18, 2016 371 ± 5% 27% 20% 53%
St. Leo University November 29–December 3, 2015 160 ± 7.5% 7.1% 4.4% 6.3% 16.9% 54.6%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 368 ± 5.1% 33% 27% 39%
Mason-Dixon July 20–24, 2015 500 ± 4.5% 24% 26% 50%
33% 32% 35%
St. Pete Polls July 15, 2015 1,018 ± 3.1% 29.7% 7.7% 23.2% 39.4%
Gravis Marketing June 16–20, 2015 881 ± 3.3% 63% 19% 18%
Vox Populi Polling (R) June 15–17, 2015 717 ± 3.7% 24% 34% 42%
St. Leo University May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 24% 27% 49%
Mason-Dixon April 14–16, 2015 400 ± 5% 14% 23% 63%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 371 ± 5.1% 22% 21% 56%
  • * Internal poll for Alan Grayson

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[119]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patrick Murphy 665,985 58.92%
Democratic Alan Grayson 199,929 17.72%
Democratic Pam Keith 173,919 15.40%
Democratic Rocky De La Fuente 60,810 5.38%
Democratic Reginald Luster 29,138 2.58%
Total votes 1,129,781 100.00%

Libertarian primary[edit]

On October 1, 2015, Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, Chair and Vice Chair respectively of the Libertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defended eugenics, called for a new Civil War, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations, "deliberate misrepresentation[s]."[186]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Results[edit]

Libertarian primary results[119]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Paul Stanton 2,946 73.48%
Libertarian Augustus Sol Invictus 1,063 26.52%
Total votes 4,008 100.00%

Independent[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Basil Dalack, attorney and former Tequesta Village Councilman[204][205]
  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2014[127]
  • Anton "Tony" Khoury, businessman[206]

No party affiliation[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Dates Location Rubio Murphy Stanton
October 17, 2016 Orlando, Florida Participant Participant Not Invited
October 26, 2016 Davie, Florida Participant Participant Not Invited

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[209] Lean R November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[210] Lean R October 20, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[211] Lean R October 21, 2016
Daily Kos[212] Likely R October 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[213] Tossup November 3, 2016

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marco
Rubio (R)
Patrick
Murphy (D)
Paul
Stanton (L)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 4,092 ± 4.6% 48% 49% 3%
Quinnipiac University November 3–6, 2016 884 ± 3.3% 50% 43% 2% 5%
Alliance/ESA Poll November 2–6, 2016 875 ± 4.2% 51% 40% 9%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 3,574 ± 4.6% 48% 49% 3%
CBS News/YouGov November 2–4, 2016 1,188 ± 3.6% 47% 44% 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 3,356 ± 4.6% 49% 49% 2%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–2, 2016 1,220 ± 2.8% 47% 46% 7%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy November 1–2, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 50% 46% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 2,901 ± 4.6% 49% 48% 3%
CNN/ORC October 27–November 1, 2016 773 LV ± 3.5% 49% 48% 2%
884 RV 50% 47% 3%
Quinnipiac University October 27–November 1, 2016 626 ± 3.9% 50% 44% 1% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 2,715 ± 4.6% 49% 47% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 2,809 ± 4.6% 49% 47% 4%
TargetSmart/William & Mary October 25–28, 2016 718 ± 3.4% 49% 43% 7% 1%
Emerson College October 26–27, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 49% 47% 3% 1%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 25–27, 2016 814 ± 3.4% 51% 42% 5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 25–26, 2016 1,301 ± 2.7% 46% 46% 8%
Public Policy Polling October 25–26, 2016 742 ± 3.6% 46% 46% 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 25–26, 2016 779 LV ± 3.5% 51% 43% 4% 2%
990 RV ± 3.1% 50% 42% 4% 3%
Newsmax/Dixie Strategies (R) October 25–26, 2016 698 ± 3.7% 49% 43% 8%
St. Leo University October 22–26, 2016 1,028 ± 3.0% 44% 39% 17%
University of North Florida October 20–25, 2016 836 ± 3.6% 49% 43% 8%
Bloomberg/Selzer October 21–24, 2016 953 ± 3.2% 51% 41% 8%
Florida Atlantic University October 21–23, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 46% 42% 12%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA October 20–24, 2016 1,251 ± 2.8% 45% 41% 6% 8%
CBS News/YouGov October 20–21, 2016 1,042 ± 3.6% 44% 42% 6% 8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy October 20, 2016 538 ± 4.2% 46% 46% 8%
Google Consumer Surveys October 18–20, 2016 500 ± 4.2% 57% 38% 5%
Associated Industries of Florida October 19, 2016 1,000 ± 3.1% 43% 38% 8% 11%
Florida Chamber of Commerce October 16–19, 2016 507 ± 4.4% 51% 37% 1% 11%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 17–18, 2016 892 ± 3.0% 45% 44% 11%
Quinnipiac University October 10–16, 2016 660 ± 3.8% 49% 47% 4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,702 ± 0.5% 51% 45% 4%

Public Policy Polling

October 12–13, 2016 985 ± 3.1% 44% 38% 6% 12%
48% 43% 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 11–13, 2016 1,799 ± 2.3% 44% 36% 20%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy October 10–11, 2016 533 ± 4.2% 48% 44% 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 3–5, 2016 700 ± 3.7% 48% 46% 2% 4%
Associated Industries of Florida October 2–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 41% 1% 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 4, 2016 821 ± 3.4% 44% 40% 16%
Emerson College October 2–4, 2016 600 ± 3.6% 47% 39% 6% 8%
University of North Florida September 27–October 4, 2016 667 ± 3.8% 48% 41% 1% 10%
Quinnipiac University September 27–October 2, 2016 545 ± 4.2% 48% 44% 8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy September 28–29, 2016 619 ± 4.0% 47% 43% 10%
Mason-Dixon September 27–29, 2016 820 ± 3.5% 47% 40% 5% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016 826 ± 3.4% 42% 35% 9% 15%
47% 44% 9%
Suffolk University September 19–21, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 43% 34% 2% 4% 17%
Florida Chamber of Commerce September 15–20, 2016 617 ± 4.0% 46% 42% 11%
Monmouth University September 16–19, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 3% 5%
Saint Leo University September 10–16, 2016 502 ± 4.5% 44% 35% 21%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College September 10–14, 2016 867 ± 3.3% 48% 42% 8%
CNN/ORC September 7–12, 2016 788 LV ± 3.0% 54% 43% 1% 2%
886 RV 51% 45% 1% 4%
Global Strategy Group September 6–11, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 47% 45% 8%
JMC Analytics (R) September 7–8, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 43% 38% 4% 15%
Quinnipiac University August 31–September 7, 2016 601 ± 4.0% 50% 43% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 4–6, 2016 744 ± 3.6% 40% 37% 10% 13%
Mason-Dixon August 22–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 46% 43% 11%
iCitizen August 18–24, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 43% 42% 16%
Florida Atlantic University August 19–22, 2016 1,200 ± 2.7% 44% 39% 17%
St. Leo University August 14–18, 2016 1,380 ± 3.0% 46% 38% 16%
Monmouth University August 12–15, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 48% 43% 3% 5%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy August 10, 2016 622 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%
Civis Analytics August 9–15, 2016 1,436 ± 2.8% 44% 45% 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 4–10, 2016 862 ± 3.3% 49% 43% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 938 ± 3.2% 42% 40% 18%
Quinnipiac University July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 48% 45% 7%
Suffolk University August 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 46% 33% 21%
JMC Analytics (R) July 9–10, 2016 700 ± 3.7% 40% 33% 5% 21%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–11, 2016 871 ± 3.3% 47% 44% 2% 7%
Quinnipiac University June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 50% 37% 1% 8%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA June 25–27, 2016 1,678 ± 2.4% 43% 43% 7% 8%
Quinnipiac University June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 47% 40% 13%
Public Policy Polling June 15–16, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 41% 42% 17%
Public Policy Polling June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 43% 44% 13%
Associated Industries of Florida April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5.0% 49% 41% 10%
Public Policy Polling September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 46% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 48% 41% 11%
Mason-Dixon March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 50% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014 818 ± 3.4% 46% 41% 12%

General Election Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Florida, 2016 [214]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Marco A. Rubio (inc.) 4,835,191 51.98% +3.09%
Democratic Patrick E. Murphy 4,122,088 44.31% +24.11%
Libertarian Paul Stanton 196,956 2.12% +1.66%
Independent Bruce Nathan 52,451 0.56% N/A
Independent Tony Khoury 45,820 0.49% N/A
Independent Steven Machat 26,918 0.29% N/A
Independent Basil E. Dalack 22,236 0.24% N/A
Independent Write-ins 160 0.00% -0.0%
Majority 713,103 7.67% -11.52%
Turnout 9,301,820 71.9%[215] +23.65%
Total votes 9,301,820 100.00% +3,890,714
Republican hold Swing N/A

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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External links[edit]

Official campaign websites