United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016

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United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016
Illinois
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
  Tammy Duckworth, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg Senator Mark Kirk official portrait crop.jpg
Nominee Tammy Duckworth Mark Kirk
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 3,012,940 2,184,692
Percentage 54.86% 39.78%

Illinois Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg

U.S. Senator before election

Mark Kirk
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Duckworth
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Party primary elections in Illinois were held on March 15, 2016. Republicans selected incumbent Senator Mark Kirk for re-election to a second term.[1] Democrats selected Tammy Duckworth, a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War and the congresswoman for Illinois's 8th congressional district.

Background[edit]

In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.

Kirk suffered a stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013.[2] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election,[3][4] but there was speculation that he might retire,[5] particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff.[6][7] One scenario mooted about was that Kirk would resign, allowing Republican Governor Bruce Rauner to appoint a replacement.[8] Potential replacements included U.S. Representatives Robert Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie.[5][7] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election.[1]

Kirk was identified by The Washington Post, The New York Times, Politico, The Huffington Post, Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican Senators up for re-election in 2016.[9][10][11][12][13][14]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Removed from ballot[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

  • Ron Wallace, investment advisor, conservative activist and economics professor[18][19]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk
James
Marter
Other Undecided
Chicago Tribune[37] March 2–6, 2016 600 ± 4.1% 65% 22% 12%
SIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 306 ± 5.6% 53% 14% 33%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Kirk 931,619 70.57%
Republican James Marter 388,571 29.43%
Total votes 1,320,190 100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tammy
Duckworth
Andrea
Zopp
Napoleon
Harris
Other Undecided
SIU Simon Institute February 15–20, 2016 422 ± 4.7% 52% 6% 4% 37%
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 409 ± 4.9% 59% 10% 31%

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 1,220,128 64.38%
Democratic Andrea Zopp 455,729 24.05%
Democratic Napoleon Harris 219,286 11.57%
Total votes 1,859,257 100.00%

Third party candidates[edit]

On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely: the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed,[79] and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin are likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions.[80][81]

Constitution Party (C) (Write in)[edit]

  • Chad Koppie, farmer and Vice President of Kane County Regional Board of School Trustees

Libertarian Party (L)[edit]

Green Party (G)[edit]

Independent (I)[edit]

  • Eric M. Conklin, law enforcement officer

General election[edit]

  • Mark Kirk (R), incumbent Senator
  • Tammy Duckworth (D), U.S. Representative
  • Eric M. Conklin (I) (objection pending: may not appear on ballot[80][81])
  • Chad Koppie (C) (Write-in)
  • Kent McMillen (L)
  • Scott Summers (G)

Endorsements[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[108] Lean D September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[109] Likely D September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[110] Lean D September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[111] Safe D November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[112] Likely D November 1, 2016

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,823 ± 4.6% 39% 56% 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,505 ± 4.6% 39% 56% 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 1,120 ± 4.6% 40% 54% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 997 ± 4.6% 40% 55% 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 911 ± 4.6% 39% 55% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 1,003 ± 4.6% 38% 57% 5%
Emerson College October 27–30, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 36% 54% 5% 5%
Loras College October 26–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 34% 42% 6% 18%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research October 16–18, 2016 1,200 ± 2.8% 39% 50% 3% 8%
GS Strategy Group October 4–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 37% 41% 6% 16%
Southern Illinois University Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 865 ± 3.3% 34% 48% 8% 10%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) September 27–29, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 37% 46% 17%
Emerson College September 19–20, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 39% 41% 11% 9%
Loras College September 13–16, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 36% 41% 22%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) August 1–4, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 37% 44% 19%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research July 14–16, 2016 1,200 ± 2.8% 37% 46% 4% 12%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) July 11–14, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 38% 40% 22%
Basswood Research (R) July 11–12, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 42% 40% 18%
GS Strategy Group March 30–31, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 43% 17%
End Citizens United September 10–14, 2015 948 ± 3.2% 41% 45% 14%
Public Policy Polling July 20–21, 2015 931 ± 3.2% 36% 42% 22%
Ogden & Fry June 23, 2015 598 ± 4.1% 27% 44% 29%
We Ask America December 18, 2014 1,003 ± 3.0% 45% 46% 9%
  • → Internal poll for Mark Kirk campaign.

Results[edit]

Democratic U.S. Representative Tammy Duckworth easily defeated the Republican incumbent senator Mark Kirk. The odds were stacked against Kirk, as no Republican had won an Illinois senate race during a presidential election year since 1972. Polls showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth. Duckworth won as expected on election night, easily defeating Kirk. Duckworth performed extremely well as Democrats always do in the heavily populated Cook County home of Chicago. Duckworth also did well in Champaign, East St. Louis and Carbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state. The Chicago collar counties (where Kirk lives, Lake County) failed to deliver for Kirk, as they easily went for Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017.

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016 [113]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 3,012,940 54.86%
Republican Mark Kirk (Incumbent) 2,184,692 39.78%
Libertarian Kenton McMillen 175,988 3.21%
Green Scott Summers 117,619 2.14%
Write-in Chad Koppie 408 0.01%
Write-in Jim Brown 106 0.00%
Write-in Christopher Aguayo 77 0.00%
Write-in Susana Sandoval 42 0.00%
Write-in Eric Kufi James Stewart 5 0.00%
Write-in Patricia Beard 1 0.00%
Total votes 5,491,878 100.00%
Democratic gain from Republican

References[edit]

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  2. ^ Ed O'Keefe (January 3, 2013). "Mark Kirk makes dramatic return to the Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 17, 2014. 
  3. ^ Matthew Cooper (June 28, 2013). "Mark Kirk Survived a Stroke--Now He's Picking Fights in Congress". National Journal. Archived from the original on July 1, 2013. Retrieved July 17, 2014. 
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  79. ^ "June 27 is the deadline for Illinois petitions. Besides the Libertarian and Green statewide petitions, the Constitution Party and the Socialist Party also submitted presidential petitions. The latter two did not have as many as 25,000 signatures. However, if no one challenges them, they will be considered valid. A fifth petition was filed by a presidential candidate named Mary Vann, using the label "Human Rights Party".". Ballot Access News. June 27, 2016. Retrieved July 6, 2016. 
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  84. ^ http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-mark-kirk-donald-trump-met-0608-20160607-story.html. Retrieved September 17, 2016.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
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  101. ^ "Mark Kirk". 2016 Endorsements. Washington, D.C.: Humane Society Legislative Fund. Retrieved October 14, 2016. Voters in Illinois who care about animal welfare should support Sen. Kirk for re-election. ... HSLF notes that Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., has also been a strong supporter of animal protection 
  102. ^ Mark Kirk [MarkKirk] (11 October 2016). "I'm proud of my endorsement from the @HSLegFund and my support from furry friends across #IL. #ilsen" (Tweet). Retrieved October 14, 2016 – via Twitter. 
  103. ^ a b Bendery, Jennifer (April 6, 2016). "Obama, Biden endorse Tammy Duckworth for Senate". Huffington Post. Retrieved August 15, 2016. 
  104. ^ Hagen, Lisa (April 29, 2016). "Elizabeth Warren stumps, raises funds for Duckworth". The Hill. Retrieved August 2, 2016. 
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  108. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016. 
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External links[edit]

Official campaign websites