2016 United States Senate election in Indiana
 |
 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||
 County Results
Young: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Bayh: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||
_(cropped).jpg)
| Elections in Indiana |
|---|
 |
The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Coats, who has served in the Senate since 2011, and previously served from 1989 to 1999, had stated that he planned to run for re-election,[1][2] but in March 2014 his Chief of Staff said that Coats "has decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".[3] On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.[4] The primaries were held May 3, and were won by former U.S. Representative Baron Hill and incumbent U.S. Representative Todd Young. However, on July 11, 2016, Hill withdrew, and former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh entered the race to regain the seat he held from 1999 to 2011, and that his father, Birch Bayh, held from 1963 to 1981. The Indiana Democratic Party chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Young won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.[5]
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Marlin Stutzman, U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[4][6][7]
- Todd Young, U.S. Representative
Withdrawn
- Kevin Grant, financial consultant and candidate for IN-04 in 2014 (running for IN-04)[8][9]
- Eric Holcomb, Senator Coats' Chief of Staff and former Chairman of the Indiana Republican Party[4][6][10][11] (appointed and ran for Lieutenant Governor before replacing Mike Pence as the nominee for Governor)
Declined
- Greg Ballard, Former Mayor of Indianapolis[4][6]
- Jim Banks, State Senator (running for IN-03)[3][12]
- Brian Bosma, Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives[13]
- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative and former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Indiana (running for re-election)[4][6][14]
- Larry Bucshon, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[13][15]
- Dan Coats, incumbent U.S. Senator[1][3][16]
- Mitch Daniels, President of Purdue University and former Governor of Indiana[17]
- Mike Delph, State Senator[3][18][19]
- Richard Lugar, former U.S. Senator[20]
- Jim Merritt, State Senator[18][21]
- Luke Messer, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[4][6]
- Mike Pence, Governor of Indiana and former U.S. Representative (running for Vice President of the United States)[22]
- Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative and former Secretary of State of Indiana (running for re-election)[23]
- Jackie Walorski, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[4][24]
- Greg Zoeller, Indiana Attorney General (running for IN-09)[13][25]
Endorsements
Marlin Stutzman
Polling
 | This article's use of external links may not follow Wikipedia's policies or guidelines. (August 2016) |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Todd Young |
Marlin Stutzman |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTHR/Howey | April 18–21, 2016 | 507 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 31% | 26% |
| IPFW/Downs Center | April 13–27, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | April 26–28, 2016 | 645 | ± 3.9% | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Todd Young | 661,136 | 67.0% | |
| Republican | Marlin Stutzman | 324,429 | 33.0% | |
| Total votes | 985,565 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative (withdrew after winning primary)
Withdrawn
Declined
- André Carson, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[31]
- Brad Ellsworth, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[32]
- Christina Hale, State Representative (running for Lieutenant Governor)[33]
- John Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor in 2012 (running for Governor)[34]
- Thomas McDermott, Jr., Mayor of Hammond[4][35][36]
- Bart Peterson, former Mayor of Indianapolis[37]
- Glenda Ritz, Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction (running for re-election)[38]
- Jonathan Weinzapfel, former Mayor of Evansville and nominee for Indiana's 8th congressional district in 1996[32]
Endorsements
Baron Hill
- Individuals
- Evan Bayh, former U.S. Senator for this seat and former Governor of Indiana, replacement nominee
- Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Baron Hill | 516,183 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 516,183 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic State Central Committee selection
On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot.[40] Hill soon after released a statement formally dropping out of the race saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions,"[41] without explicitly endorsing Bayh.[41] The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state.[42] Bayh officially declared for the race July 13.[43] The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.[41]
Candidates
- Evan Bayh, former U.S. Senator and Governor of Indiana[40][43]
- Bob Kern, candidate for IN-7 in 2012, IN-2 in 2014, and IN-9 2016[42]
General election
Candidates
- Evan Bayh (D), former U.S. Senator and Governor of Indiana
- Todd Young (R), U.S. Representative
- Lucy Brenton (L)
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 18, 2016
Endorsements
Evan Bayh
- U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
- Hillary Clinton, 67th United States Secretary of State, 2008 presidential candidate and 2016 presidential nominee[44]
- Mayors
- Organizations
- Daily News Bin[46]
- Labor unions
- Newspapers
Todd Young
- Presidents of the United States
- U.S. Senators
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas[51]
- Ted Cruz, Texas and 2016 presidential candidate[52]
- U.S. Representatives
- Paul Ryan, Wisconsin, 54th Speaker of the House and 2012 Vice Presidential nominee[53]
- Former state party chairs
- Jim Kittle[54]
- Al Hubbard[54]
- Individuals
- Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, 2010 nominee for Senate in California and 2016 presidential candidate[55]
- Organizations
- Indiana Right to Life[56]
- National Federation of Independent Business[56]
- National Rifle Association[57]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[58]
- American Conservative Union[59]
- Newspapers
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[61] | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[63] | Tossup | October 21, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[64] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[65] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
Polling
| This article's use of external links may not follow Wikipedia's policies or guidelines. (August 2016) |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Todd Young (R) |
Evan Bayh (D) |
Lucy Brenton (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garin-Hart-Yang↑ | July 12–14, 2016 | 602 | ± 4.1% | 33% | 54% | — | 13% |
| Expedition Strategies↓ | August 1–3, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 32% | 58% | — | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ | August 8, 2016[66] | ?[67] | ± ?%[67] | 35% | 48% | 7% | 10% |
| Global Strategy Group‡ | August 10–14, 2016 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 36% | 54% | — | 10% |
| Monmouth University | August 13–16, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 48% | 4% | 7% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang§ | August 15–18, 2016 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 39% | 55% | — | 6% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ | September 1, 2016[66] | ?[67] | ± ?%[67] | 35% | 44% | 6% | 15% |
| WTHR/Howey | September 6–8, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ | September 21, 2016[66] | ?[67] | ± ?%[67] | 39% | 44% | 9% | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ | October 3, 2016[66] | ?[67] | ± ?%[67] | 38% | 42% | 7% | 13% |
| WTHR/Howey | October 3–5, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 8% | 9% |
| The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 7–10, 2016 | 1,123 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | — | 11% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)→ | October 9–11, 2016 | 609 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | 8% | 13% |
| Monmouth University | October 11–13, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 42% | 48% | 6% | 4% |
| WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey | October 10–16, 2016 | 544 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 49% | — | 6% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 22–24, 2016 | 596 | ± 2.3% | 37% | 39% | 7% | 17% |
| Monmouth University | October 27–30, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 45% | 4% | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 674 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 46% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 26 – November 1, 2016 | 638 | ± 4.6% | 51% | 46% | — | 3% |
| Gravis Marketing | Oct 30 – November 1, 2016 | 399 | ± 4.9% | 37% | 40% | 7% | 16% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 27 – November 2, 2016 | 790 | ± 4.6% | 51% | 44% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 28 – November 3, 2016 | 923 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 43% | — | 5% |
| WTHR/Howey | November 1–3, 2016 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | 6% | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey | Oct 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,383 | ± 4.6% | 52% | 43% | — | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,700 | ± 4.6% | 53% | 42% | — | 5% |
- * Poll conducted for Todd Young for Senate
- § Poll conducted for Evan Bayh for Indiana
- ‡ Poll conducted for Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic-aligned Super PAC
- ↓ Poll conducted for Democratic gubernatorial candidate John R. Gregg
- ↑ Poll conducted for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
|
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Todd Young | 1,423,991 | 52.11% | |
| Democratic | Evan Bayh | 1,158,947 | 42.41% | |
| Libertarian | Lucy Brenton | 149,481 | 5.47% | |
| Write-in | James L. Johnson, Jr. | 127 | 0.01% | |
| Majority | 265,044 | 9.70% | ||
| Total votes | 2,732,573 | 100.00% | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
References
- ^ a b Bradner, Eric (December 8, 2012). "Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press". Courierpress.com. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
- ^ Francisco, Brian (November 2, 2011). "Coats gets head start on 2016". Journal Gazette. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
- ^ a b c d "Tully: Dan Coats weighing another term in Senate". IndyStar.com. March 4, 2014. Retrieved October 12, 2014.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ Maureen Groppe (July 12, 2016). "Few former senators have done what Bayh might do". IndyStar.
- ^ a b c d e Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". KokomoPerspective.com. Retrieved February 3, 2015.
- ^ Cahn, Emily (May 9, 2015). "Marlin Stutzman Leaving House to Run for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
- ^ Francisco, Brian (August 18, 2015). "Candidate fields growing quietly". Journal Gazette. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
- ^ "May 3, 2016 Primary Election Candidates" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State Election Division. Retrieved February 4, 2016.
- ^ Joseph, Cameron (March 26, 2015). "Chief of staff launches Senate bid for Coats's seat". The Hill. Retrieved March 26, 2015.
- ^ "Eric Holcomb drops out of Indiana senate race". WRTV. February 8, 2016. Retrieved February 8, 2016.
- ^ Francisco, Brian (May 11, 2015). "Banks set for Congress run". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved May 11, 2015.
- ^ a b c Howey, Brian A.; Schoeff, Jr., Mark (March 24, 2015). "Coats decision sets off 2016 Senate mad scramble". Howey Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ de la Bastide, Ken (April 20, 2015). "Brooks won't run for U.S. Senate". The Herald Bulletin. Retrieved April 20, 2015.
- ^ Sullivan, Sean (March 24, 2015). "Cross Rep. Larry Bucshon's name off the list of possible GOP candidates for the Indiana Senate race. He tells me he is not interested". Twitter. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul (March 24, 2015). "Coats Not Running For Re-Election". Indy Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ "TBangert: Governor run for Purdue's Mitch Daniels? 'Nope'". The Indianapolis Star. April 21, 2015.
- ^ a b Howey, Brian (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". News and Tribune. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
- ^ Carden, Dan (September 15, 2015). "UPDATE: Delph opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
- ^ Raju, Manu (March 25, 2015). "Dick Lugar won't be making a comeback, declines to run for Coats' seat in #INSEN, per @kyledcheney". Twitter. Retrieved March 25, 2015.
- ^ Helms, Aubrey (August 4, 2015). "Young locking in fundraising advantage for U.S. Senate race". The Statehouse File. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
- ^ "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP". CNN. July 15, 2016.
{{cite web}}: Cite uses deprecated parameter|authors=(help) - ^ Carden, Dan (June 10, 2015). "Rokita opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved June 10, 2015.
- ^ Vandenack, Tim (April 15, 2015). "U.S. Rep. Walorski to seek third term in House, won't run for Senate after all". The Elkhart Truth. Retrieved April 15, 2015.
- ^ Marturello, Mike (April 9, 2015). "Zoeller quiets talk of Senate run to replace Coats". News and Tribune. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
- ^ a b c Francisco, Brian (January 17, 2016). "GOP Senate hopefuls aim right". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
- ^ Francisco, Brian (March 22, 2016). "FreedomWorks endorses Stutzman in Senate race". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
- ^ a b "Indiana Primary Election, May 3, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved May 6, 2016.
- ^ Lewis, Olivia (August 15, 2015). "Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 17, 2015.
- ^ "John Dickerson Drops Out of Race For U.S. Senate". wfyi Indianapolis. January 21, 2016. Retrieved January 21, 2016.
- ^ Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (March 24, 2015). "Coats Retirement Sparks Hoosier State Free-for-All". Roll Call. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ a b Livingston, Abby (June 19, 2013). "Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
- ^ Smith, Brandon (May 25, 2016). "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale As Running Mate". WFIU.
- ^ Bruggeman, Karyn (March 8, 2015). "Mike Pence and Indiana's Deep Freeze". National Journal. Retrieved March 13, 2015.
- ^ Howey, Brian A. (March 24, 2015). "Sen. Coats will not seek reelection in 2016; won't endorse". Howey Politics. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ Howey, Brian (September 10, 2015). "U.S. Senate race: McDermott considers" (PDF). Howey Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2015.
- ^ Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "GOP braces for free-for-all in Indiana". The Hill. Retrieved March 24, 2015.
- ^ Turner, Kris (June 4, 2015). "Glenda Ritz calls education 'catalyst for improvement' in run for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved June 4, 2015.
- ^ Tester, Jon (March 8, 2016). "DSCC Endorses Baron Hill in Indiana Senate Race". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
- ^ a b Tom LoBianco (July 11, 2016). "First on CNN: Evan Bayh mounting Senate return". CNN.
- ^ a b c "Baron Hill withdraws from U.S. Senate race; Evan Bayh to enter race". WTHR. July 11, 2016.
- ^ a b "Bob Kern Senate filing" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State. July 12, 2016.
- ^ a b Tom LoBianco (July 13, 2016). "Bayh announces Senate bid, puts Indiana seat in play". CNN. Retrieved July 14, 2016.
- ^ Rucker, Philip (October 23, 2016). "Clinton infuses cash into Senate, gubernatorial races, including Indiana and Missouri". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ Roberts, Kelly (October 26, 2016). "Mayor Tom Henry campaigns for Evan Bayh". WANE-TV. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily News Bin endorses Democrat Evan Bayh in 2016 Senate race in Indiana". Daily News Bin. July 12, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ Shella, Jim (September 8, 2016). "UAW endorses Bayh, attacks Young". WISH-TV. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Bayh best for Indiana, Senate". The Journal Gazette. October 23, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Endorsements: A tough choice for U.S. Senate but Bayh is sensible pick for Indiana". South Bend Tribune. October 30, 2016. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/12/bush-campaign-young/90258108/
- ^ "Tom Cotton campaigns with Todd Young". tomcotton.com. October 27, 2016. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
- ^ Roberts, Kelly (November 5, 2016). "Senator Ted Cruz makes final push for Todd Young". WANE-TV. Retrieved November 6, 2016.
- ^ Republican Party of Indiana (November 1, 2016). "I work with @ToddYoung closely- he's one of the most hardworking men in Congress. He's a servant leader.- @PRyan". Twitter. Retrieved November 2, 2016.
- ^ a b https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/hubbard-kittle-back-rep-young-to-get-in-senate-race
- ^ Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). "Why Indiana needs a conservative fighter like @ToddYoungIN in the U.S. Senate: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p..." Twitter. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
- ^ a b c "Endorsements". toddyoung.org.
- ^ DeFreeuw, Eric (September 21, 2016). "NRA ad takes aim at Bayh's gun control voting record". WPTA. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ Shella, Jim (March 30, 2016). "Todd Young wins business endorsements". WISH-TV. Retrieved April 3, 2016.
- ^ "ACU Endorses Todd Young". American Conservative Union.
- ^ "Editorial: Todd Young is best choice for Senate". The Indianapolis Star. October 22, 2016. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 30, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings (October 14, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ a b c d Date of polling memo, not field dates, which remain unreleased
- ^ a b c d e f g h Data for past internal polls were not released.
- ^ "Indiana General Election, November 8, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
External links
- Official campaign websites