2016 United States Senate election in Iowa

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2016 United States Senate election in Iowa
Flag of Iowa (1921-2018).svg
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  Chuck Grassley official photo 2017.jpg Patty Judge (cropped).jpg
Nominee Chuck Grassley Patty Judge
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 926,007 549,460
Percentage 60.1% 35.7%

Iowa Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County results

Grassley:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Judge:      50–60%

U.S. Senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016.[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Though Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump here, who also won in the state that year, this was still his second closest election after his initial election in 1980. Patty Judge's 35% of the vote is thus the best performance by a Democratic nominee for Iowa's class 3 senate seat since that time.

Background[edit]

Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.

Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,[2] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."[3]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chuck Grassley (Incumbent) 90,089 98.36%
Republican Write-ins 1,500 1.64%
Total votes 91,589 100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Patty
Judge
Rob
Hogg
Bob
Krause
Tom
Fiegen
None/Other Undecided
Des Moines Register May 30 – June 2, 2016 542 ± 4.2% 42% 25% 6% 5% 6% 15%
KBUR-AM 1490 May 31 – June 1, 2016 1,361 ± 3.0% 37% 31% 3% 6% 23%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Fiegen—30–40%
  Hogg—60–70%
  Hogg—50–60%
  Hogg—40–50%
  Hogg—30–40%
  Judge—80–90%
  Judge—70–80%
  Judge—60–70%
  Judge—50–60%
  Judge—40–50%
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patty Judge 46,322 47.62%
Democratic Rob Hogg 37,801 38.86%
Democratic Tom Fiegen 6,573 6.76%
Democratic Bob Krause 6,425 6.60%
Democratic Write-ins 154 0.16%
Total votes 97,275 100.00%

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[23] Likely R September 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Safe R September 26, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[25] Safe R September 30, 2016
Daily Kos[26] Safe R October 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[27] Likely R October 4, 2016

Debates[edit]

Dates Location Grassley Judge Link
October 19, 2016 Sioux City, Iowa Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Grassley (R)
Patty
Judge (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,781 ± 4.6% 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 1,598 ± 4.6% 56% 39% 5%
Des Moines Register/Selzer November 1–4, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 56% 33% 2% 4%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2016 700 ± 3.6% 60% 32% 4% 5%
Loras College November 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 53% 37% 1% 8%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 1,469 ± 4.6% 57% 39% 4%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 1,226 ± 4.6% 57% 40% 3%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 867 ± 4.6% 56% 41% 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 984 ± 4.6% 56% 41% 3%
Quinnipiac University October 20–26, 2016 791 ± 3.5% 56% 38% 5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,135 ± 0.5% 56% 40% 5%
Google Consumer Surveys October 12–14, 2016 523 ± 4.2% 56% 41% 3%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 917 ± 3.0% 51% 39% 11%
Des Moines Register/Selzer October 3–6, 2016 642 ± 3.5% 53% 36% 2% 6%
Loras College September 20–22, 2016 491 ± 4.4% 54% 37% 9%
Quinnipiac University September 13–21, 2016 612 ± 4.0% 55% 43% 2%
Monmouth University September 12–14, 2016 404 ± 4.9% 56% 39% 2% 3%
RABA Research September 6–8, 2016 1,054 ± 3.0% 50% 37% 13%
Emerson College Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 51% 40% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016 827 ± 3.4% 49% 43% 8%
CBS News/YouGov August 17–19, 2016 987 ± 4.0% 45% 38% 1% 15%
Quinnipiac University August 9–16, 2016 846 ± 3.4% 51% 42% 6%
Suffolk University August 8–10, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 52% 42% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016 899 ± 3.3% 52% 42% 1% 5%
CBS News/YouGov July 13–15, 2016 998 ± 4.8% 45% 37% 2% 16%
Monmouth University July 8–11, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 52% 42% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016 822 ± 3.4% 52% 42% 1% 5%
Loras College June 24–28, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 45% 9%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 897 ± 3.3% 46% 39% 14%
Public Policy Polling June 9–13, 2016 630 ± 3.9% 48% 41% 11%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Iowa, 2016[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 926,007 60.09% -4.26%
Democratic Patty Judge 549,460 35.66% +2.36%
Libertarian John Heiderscheit 41,794 2.71% +0.44%
Independent Jim Hennager 17,649 1.15% N/A
Independent Michael Luick-Thrams 4,441 0.29% N/A
n/a Write-ins 1,685 0.11% +0.03%
Total votes 1,541,036 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

References[edit]

  1. ^ Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov
  2. ^ Matt Kelley (January 29, 2013). "Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement". Radio Iowa. Retrieved May 22, 2014.
  3. ^ a b Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  4. ^ a b c Jacobs, Jennifer; Noble, Jason (March 31, 2015). "And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 31, 2015.
  5. ^ Porter, Jake (January 19, 2016). "Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley". Iowa Free Press. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  6. ^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  7. ^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 17, 2016.
  8. ^ a b c d Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
  9. ^ a b c d Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
  10. ^ a b "Official Results" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
  11. ^ Petroski, William (September 21, 2015). "Hogg to seek Grassley's seat in U.S. Senate". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2015.
  12. ^ Noble, Jason (February 25, 2016). "Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
  13. ^ Steinhauer, Jennifer (March 3, 2016). "Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
  14. ^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  15. ^ "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. January 2, 2014. Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.
  16. ^ Lynch, James Q. (November 7, 2015). "Zirkelbach is fourth candidate in Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  17. ^ "IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. February 26, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  18. ^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
  19. ^ Petroski, William (January 26, 2016). "61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  20. ^ Henderson, O. Kay (April 21, 2015). "Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy". Radio Iowa. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
  21. ^ Rynard, Pat (May 28, 2015). "Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
  22. ^ "Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary". Bleeding Heartland. March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
  23. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 30, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 30, 2016.
  24. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
  25. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings (September 30, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2016.
  26. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
  27. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
  28. ^ "Official Results General Election" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites (Archived)