United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016

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United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016
Pennsylvania
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
  Pat Toomey, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Kathleen McGinty (2015).jpg
Nominee Pat Toomey Katie McGinty
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,951,702 2,865,012
Percentage 48.77% 47.34%

Pennsylvania Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg

U.S. Senator before election

Pat Toomey
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Pat Toomey
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26. Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey was re-elected to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford.[1] [2]

Background[edit]

Five-term Senator Arlen Specter, a moderate Republican, switched to the Democratic Party in April 2009, running for re-election in 2010 as such. He was defeated in the Democratic primary by U.S. Representative and former U.S. Navy three-star admiral Joe Sestak. After a close race, Sestak lost the general election to former U.S. Representative Pat Toomey by 51% to 49%, a margin of 80,229 votes out of almost 4 million cast. Specter later died in 2012.

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Pennsylvania was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to regain their majority.[3][4][5] Katie McGinty, who won the Democratic primary, was one of 160 candidates endorsed by Barack Obama. McGinty got her start in politics after winning the Congressional Fellowship of the American Chemical Society, leading to a position with then Senator Al Gore. In 1993 she was appointed deputy assistant and then chair of the White House Council of Environmental Quality under Bill Clinton. She then went on to be appointed head of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Governor Ed Rendell in 2003.[6]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Did not file[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Pat Toomey 1,342,941 100.00%
Total votes 1,342,941 100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Did Not File[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Debates[edit]

A debate hosted by Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College in association with the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on January 31 at Rangos Hall in Jared L. Cohon University Center, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA.[126]

A debate hosted by Keystone Progress featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on February 19 at the Hilton Harrisburg, in the Harrisburg Ballroom, Harrisburg, PA.[127]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Joe
Vodvarka
John
Fetterman
Katie
McGinty
Joe
Sestak
Other Undecided
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy April 24–25, 2016 942 ± 3.2% 14% 39% 34% 13%
Harper Polling April 21–23, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 3% 15% 39% 33% 11%
Monmouth University April 17–19, 2016 302 ± 5.6% 4% 39% 39% 18%
Franklin & Marshall College April 11–18, 2016 510 ± 5.3% 8% 27% 38% 2% 25%
Harper Polling April 3–4, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 9% 31% 41% 19%
Franklin & Marshall College March 14–20, 2016 408 ± 4.7% 7% 14% 31% 2% 46%
Harper Polling March 1–2, 2016 662 ± 3.6% 4% 15% 17% 33% 35%
Harper Polling January 22–23, 2016 640 ± 3.8% 11% 28% 33% 28%
Public Policy Polling October 8–11, 2015 1,012 ± 3.1% 14% 22% 29% 35%
Franklin & Marshall College August 17–24, 2015 298 ± ? 13% 16% 5% 66%

Results[edit]

2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results
  McGinty — 50–60%
  McGinty — 40–50%
  McGinty — <40%
  Sestak — <40%
  Sestak — 40–50%
  Sestak — 60–70%
  Fetterman — 40–50%
2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Katie McGinty 669,774 42.50%
Democratic Joe Sestak 513,221 32.57%
Democratic John Fetterman 307,090 19.49%
Democratic Joseph Vodvarka 85,837 5.45%
Total votes 1,575,922 100.00%

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[129] Tossup September 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[130] Lean D November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[131] Tossup September 30, 2016
Daily Kos[132] Tossup September 23, 2016
Real Clear Politics[133] Tossup October 1, 2016

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Toomey (R)
Katie
McGinty (D)
Edward
Clifford (L)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 2,845 ± 4.6% 45% 49% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 2,685 ± 4.6% 45% 50% 5%
CBS News/YouGov November 3–5, 2016 931 ± 4.3% 46% 47% 1% 6%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–4, 2016 1,033 ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call October 30–November 4, 2016 405 ± 5.5% 43% 42% 15%
Harper Polling November 2–3, 2016 504 ± 4.4% 44% 44% 6% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 2,454 ± 4.6% 45% 50% 5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–2, 2016 1,016 ± 3.1% 43% 45% 12%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 31–November 2, 2016 681 ± 3.8% 41% 47% 5% 1% 7%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 2,177 ± 4.6% 46% 50% 4%
Public Policy Polling October 31–November 1, 2016 1,050 ± 3.0% 44% 46% 10%
Monmouth University October 29–November 1, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 44% 47% 3% 6%
CNN/ORC October 27–November 1, 2016 799 LV ± 3.5% 46% 51% 1% 1%
917 RV ± 3.0% 47% 49% 1% 2%
Quinnipiac University October 27–November 1, 2016 612 ± 4.0% 47% 48% 1% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 2, 2016 2,078 ± 4.6% 46% 50% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 2,255 ± 4.6% 46% 49% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College October 26–30, 2016 652 LV ± 5.1% 35% 47% 1% 2% 16%
863 RV ± 4.4% 33% 43% 1% 23%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing October 25–30, 2016 3,217 ± 1.7% 41% 45% 13%
CBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 2016 1,091 ± 3.7% 41% 44% 2% 13%
Emerson College October 25–26, 2016 550 ± 4.1% 43% 45% 7% 5%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call October 20–26, 2016 420 ± 5.5% 41% 41% 1% 17%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 23–25, 2016 824 ± 3.4% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 46% 43% 5% 7%
Quinnipiac University October 10–16, 2016 660 ± 3.8% 49% 45% 6%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,449 ± 0.5% 47% 47% 6%
Bloomberg/Selzer October 7–11, 2016 806 ± 3.5% 45% 47% 2% 4%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 1,457 ± 3.0% 44% 44% 12%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 4–9, 2016 764 ± 3.5% 42% 38% 7% 1% 12%
CBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016 997 ± 4.2% 42% 42% 1% 15%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 3–6, 2016 709 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 2% 6%
Monmouth University September 30–October 3, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 46% 46% 3% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College September 28–October 2, 2016 496 LV ± 6.1% 35% 41% 2% 22%
813 RV ± 4.8% 31% 36% 11% 22%
Quinnipiac University September 27–October 2, 2016 535 ± 4.2% 50% 42% 7%
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016 886 ± 3.3% 35% 40% 9% 16%
42% 44% 14%
CNN/ORC September 20–25, 2016 771 LV ± 3.5% 46% 49% 2%
895 RV
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing September 23, 2016 949 ± 3.2% 39% 43% 18%
Harper Polling September 21–22, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 42% 42% 8% 8%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call September 19–23, 2016 486 ± 5.0% 41% 40% 20%
Mercyhurst University September 12–23, 2016 420 ± 4.8% 43% 42% 15%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps September 10–19, 2016 400 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call September 12–16, 2016 405 ± 5.5% 38% 43% 19%
Quinnipiac University August 29–September 7, 2016 778 ± 3.5% 46% 45% 1% 7%
CBS News/YouGov August 30–September 2, 2016 1,091 ± 4.1% 39% 39% 2% 20%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016 814 ± 3.4% 41% 44% 15%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,194 ± 3.0% 40% 46% 14%
Monmouth University August 26–29, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 41% 45% 6% 8%
Franklin & Marshall College August 25–29, 2016 496 LV ± 5.6% 38% 43% 18%
736 RV ± 4.6% 37% 36% 27%
Emerson College August 25–28, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 46% 39% 5% 10%
GBA Strategies August 21–28, 2016 881 ± 4.4% 42% 47% 8% 3%
Quinnipiac University July 30–August 7, 2016 815 ± 3.4% 44% 47% 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016 834 ± 3.4% 44% 48% 1% 7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research July 31–August 4, 2016 772 ± 3.5% 40% 42% 2% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College July 29–August 1, 2016 389 LV ± 6.3% 38% 39% 23%
661 RV ± 4.8% 30% 38% 32%
Public Policy Polling July 29–31, 2016 1,505 ± 2.7% 42% 41% 17%
Suffolk University July 25–27, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 36% 43% 1% 19%
Quinnipiac University June 30–July 11, 2016 982 ± 3.1% 49% 39% 1% 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016 829 ± 3.4% 44% 47% 2% 8%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 980 ± 3.1% 40% 39% 21%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 46% 38% 16%
Quinnipiac University June 8–19, 2016 950 ± 3.2% 49% 40% 8%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 965 ± 3.2% 45% 42% 12%
Public Policy Polling June 3–5, 2016 1,106 ± 3.0% 41% 38% 21%
Quinnipiac University April 27–May 8, 2016 1,077 ± 3.0% 45% 44% 11%
Quinnipiac University March 30–April 4, 2016 1,737 ± 2.4% 47% 38% 1% 12%
Mercyhurst University March 1–11, 2016 421 ± 4.8% 47% 34% 2% 13%
Harper Polling March 1–2, 2016 662 ± 3.75% 47% 39% 13%
Robert Morris University February 11–16, 2016 511 ± 4.5% 34% 21% 45%
Public Policy Polling October 8–11, 2015 1,012 ± 3.1% 43% 36% 21%
Quinnipiac University September 25–October 5, 2015 1,049 ± 3.0% 51% 31% 1% 15%
Harper Polling September 9–10, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 48% 34% 18%
Franklin & Marshall College August 17–24, 2015 605 ± 3.9% 35% 28% 38%
Quinnipiac University August 7–18, 2015 1,085 ± 3% 48% 32% 1% 17%
Public Policy Polling May 30–June 1, 2014 835 ± 3.4% 42% 38% 20%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016 [134]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Pat Toomey (inc.) 2,951,702 48.77% -2.24%
Democratic Katie McGinty 2,865,012 47.34% -1.65%
Libertarian Edward T. Clifford III 235,142 3.89% N/A
Total votes 6,051,941 100.00%
Republican hold Swing NA

See also[edit]

References[edit]

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  2. ^ Template:Http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ENR NEW
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External links[edit]

Official campaign websites