United States Senate election in Texas, 2018

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United States Senate election in Texas, 2018

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  Ted Cruz, official portrait (cropped).jpg Beto O'Rourke crop.jpg
Nominee Ted Cruz Beto O'Rourke
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. Senator

Ted Cruz
Republican



The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz is running for re-election to a second term against Democratic candidate Beto O'Rourke and Libertarian candidate Neal Dikeman.[1] The primary for all parties was held on March 6, 2018, making it the first primary of the 2018 season.[2] As Cruz and O'Rourke both won majorities in their primaries, they did not participate in the May 22 runoff primary that was held for some nominations in Texas.[3]

No Democrat has held statewide office in Texas since 1994, with election pre-predictions declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of 2018.[4] However, despite Cruz's initially substantial lead according to polls,[5] O'Rourke has gradually closed the gap,[6] and the race is considered to be unusually competitive.[7]

Background[edit]

In 2012, after an upset victory in the Republican primary, then-Solicitor General of Texas Ted Cruz defeated former state representative Paul Sadler by a 16 point margin (56%–40%). Texas has not elected a Democratic senate candidate since 1988. As Anglo-Conservatives began turning to the Republican Party in once strongly-Democratic areas, Democratic voters became concentrated in Southern Texas (which hold majority minority counties) and large metropolitan cities, such as Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas, as well as the far western majority minority city of El Paso.

Since the 1990s, Texas has voted for Republican statewide candidates, whether it be presidential, gubernatorial, or senatorial, often by large margins. In 1998, Governor George W. Bush won re-election by 37 points over his Democratic challenger, Garry Mauro. In 2004, President Bush won Texas over Senator John Kerry by 23 points, winning rural areas by landslide margins and capturing urban zones. Democrat Barack Obama was defeated by margins of 12 points in 2008 (against John McCain) and 16 points in 2012 (against Mitt Romney) respectively. However, in 2016, Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton by a 9 point margin. Although the margin was narrow due to Donald Trump performing worse than a typical Republican nominee rather than Hillary Clinton performing better than normal Democratic nominees, this has led Democrats to begin targeting Texas as a potential future swing state. It should also be noted that Ted Cruz defeated Donald Trump in the Texas Republican primary for US President in 2016.

Senator Ted Cruz currently holds a 49%–34% approval rating among Texans in a state Donald Trump won by 9 points against Hillary Clinton in 2016. As of June 2018, President Trump's approval rating statewide is 50%, while his disapproval rating is 45%.[8] Among groups that tend to affiliate themselves more with the Democratic Party, Senator Cruz currently holds a 29% approval rating among Hispanics, 37% among females, and 42% among college-educated voters.[9]

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Failed to qualify[edit]

  • Thomas Dillingham, businessman[15]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Bruce Jacobson
Individuals
Stefano de Stefano
Media

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz
Stefano
de Stefano
Bruce
Jacobson
Mary
Miller
Geraldine
Sam
Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 ± 4.7% 73% 1% 2% 2% 1% 21%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 612 ± 5.3% 91% 1% 3% 3% 2%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent) 1,317,463 85.34% +51.18%
Republican Mary Miller 94,454 6.11%
Republican Bruce Jacobson Jr. 64,607 4.18%
Republican Stefano de Stefano 44,353 2.87%
Republican Geraldine Sam 22,848 1.48%
Total votes 1,543,725 100% +137,077
Turnout 10.12%[29] -0.64%[29]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

  • Sema Hernandez, baseball coach and small business owner[33]
  • Edward Kimbrough[34]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Beto O'Rourke
Newspapers
Organizations
Sema Hernandez
Individuals

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Sema
Hernandez
Edward
Kimbrough
Beto
O'Rourke
Undecided
Dixie Strategies February 22–23, 2018 ± 5.7% 6% 4% 38% 53%
University of Texas February 1–12, 2018 453 ± 7.4% 19% 8% 73%

Results[edit]

County results of the Democratic primary for Class 1 United States Senate in Texas, 2018:
Democratic primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 641,337 61.79%
Democratic Sema Hernandez 246,313 23.73%
Democratic Edward Kimbrough 150,149 14.46%
Total votes 1,037,799 100% +540,312
Turnout 6.8%[29] +3%[29]

Libertarian nomination[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Carl Bible, nurse[48]
  • Jonathan Jenkins, tech entrepreneur[49][50]
  • Bob McNeil, businessman[51] (American Citizen Party)[a]

Declined[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ American Citizen Party does not have ballot access. Appears on ballot as "Independent."[52]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
Fox News[55][a] Likely R October 10, 2018
The Cook Political Report[56] Tossup October 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] Lean R October 5, 2018
Daily Kos[58] Lean R October 5, 2018
CNN[59] Lean R October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[60] Lean R October 3, 2018
Inside Elections[61] Likely R September 28, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Ted Cruz (R)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Governors
State officials
Texas State Senators
Texas State Representatives
Local Officeholders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Beto O'Rourke (D)
U.S. Executive Branch Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Texas State Senators
  • Wendy Davis, former State Senator (D-10th District) and 2014 Democratic nominee for Governor of Texas[109]
Texas State Representatives
  • Chris Turner, State Representative (D-101st District) and Chair of the Texas House Democratic Caucus[110]
Local Officeholders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Ted Cruz (R) $35,072,080 $24,288,888 $11,262,609
Beto O'Rourke (D) $61,783,371 $39,280,043 $22,902,188
Neal Dikeman (L) $23,408 $21,158 $2,249
Source: Federal Election Commission[178]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ted
Cruz (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Neal
Dikeman (L)
Other Undecided
Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn) October 10–14, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 3% 3%
CNN/SSRS October 9–13, 2018 716 LV ± 4.5% 52% 45% 0% 2%
862 RV ± 4.1% 50% 45% 0% 3%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) October 8–13, 2018 801 ± 3.5% 52% 43% 1% 4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8–11, 2018 800 ± 3.6% 51% 43% 1% 5%
Quinnipiac University October 3–9, 2018 730 ± 4.4% 54% 45% 0% 2%
YouGov October 2–5, 2018 881 50% 44% 2% 4%
Emerson College October 1–5, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 47% 42% 3% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) September 19–20, 2018 613 ± 4.0% 48% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) September 19–20, 2018 603 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 5%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 508 ± 4.4% 50% 50%
Quinnipiac University September 11–17, 2018 807 ± 4.1% 54% 45% 0% 1%
Reform Austin (D) September 11–12, 2018 1,161 ± 3.0% 49% 45% 5%
Ipsos September 6–14, 2018 992 ± 4.0% 45% 47% 3% 5%
Crosswind Media & Public Relations September 6–9, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 47% 44%
Dixie Strategies September 6–7, 2018 519 ± 4.3% 46% 42% 1% 11%
Emerson College August 22–25, 2018 550 ± 4.4% 38% 37% 4% 21%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 759 ± 3.8% 49% 45% 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) August 1–2, 2018 797 ± 3.5% 46% 42%
Quinnipiac University July 26–31, 2018 1,118 ± 3.5% 49% 43% 0% 6%
Texas Lyceum July 9–26, 2018 441 LV ± 4.7% 41% 39% 1% 19%
806 RV ± 3.5% 36% 34% 3% 24%
Gravis Marketing July 3–7, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 51% 42% 7%
YouGov June 19–22, 2018 821 LV ± 3.6% 50% 40% 3% 7%
1,025 RV 44% 36% 3% 13%
University of Texas/YouGov June 8–17, 2018 1,200 ± 2.8% 41% 36% 2% 3% 17%
GQR Research (D-End Citizens United) May 29 – June 5, 2018 1,000 ± 3.1% 49% 43% 8%
Quinnipiac University May 23–29, 2018 961 ± 3.8% 50% 39% 0% 9%
Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC) May 21–28, 2018 601 ± 4.1% 48% 36% 3% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D-Giffords) May 21–22, 2018 861 ± 3.3% 48% 42% 10%
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group) May 19–21, 2018 575 ± 4.1% 47% 40% 6%[179] 7%
Quinnipiac University April 12–17, 2018 1,029 ± 3.6% 47% 44% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United) January 17–18, 2018 757 ± 3.6% 45% 37% 18%
WPA Intelligence (R-Cruz) December 12–14, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 52% 34% 1% 13%
Texas Lyceum April 3–9, 2017 1,000 ± 3.1% 30% 30% 3% 37%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Texas, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Ted Cruz (incumbent)
Democratic Beto O'Rourke
Libertarian Neal Dikeman
Majority
Turnout

References[edit]

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  63. ^ Donald J. Trump. "I will be doing a major rally for Senator Ted Cruz in October. I'm picking the biggest stadium in Texas we can find. As you know, Ted has my complete and total Endorsement. His opponent is a disaster for Texas - weak on Second Amendment, Crime, Borders, Military, and Vets!". Twitter.
  64. ^ "Ted Cruz on Twitter".
  65. ^ Svitek, Patrick (September 24, 2017). "John Cornyn says he's supporting Ted Cruz for re-election in 2018".
  66. ^ @TexasCruzer (May 29, 2018). "Thank you to everyone who joined us in the Woodlands this morning. Have a blessed Summer! @bradyfortexas @MattressMack" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  67. ^ @Flores4Congress (October 9, 2018). "I #ChooseCruz for #TXSen! Show your friends and neighbors you stand with @tedcruz this November... order your yard sign today: secure.tedcruz.org/yard-sign" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  68. ^ "Governor Abbott Endorses Ted Cruz for U.S. Senate - Greg Abbott". March 30, 2017.
  69. ^ George P. Bush. "Senator @TedCruz was the clear winner tonight. Looking forward to a GOP #victory in November". Twitter.
  70. ^ @ChristianForTX (October 16, 2018). "Robert "Beto" O'Rourke supports socialized medicine, @tedcruz supports the free market, more options, and allowing consumers to purchase affordable insurance across state lines. #ChooseCruz #txsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  71. ^ Ryan Sitton. "Texas has a choice to make and I #ChooseCruz because @tedcruz has Texas booming while @betoorourke will take our state backwards. WATCH and RETWEET! #KeepTexasRed #TexasDebate". Twitter.
  72. ^ @KonniBurton (June 18, 2018). "😎😎😎 #CruzCrew" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  73. ^ Sen. Charles Perry. "Sen. Ted Cruz came to Lubbock after winning his debate for a campaign rally. There was a huge crowd and I had the honor of introducing him. I cannot imagine having the far-left Robert Francis "Beto" O'Rourke representing West Texas in Washington. We must get out the vote!". Twitter.
  74. ^ @CBellJr (August 20, 2018). "Honored to be in attendance at McKinzie's BBQ in Conroe with Sen. Ted Cruz, Congressman Kevin Brady, and a host of others. What a great crowd!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  75. ^ @leachfortexas (August 28, 2018). "The momentum is building!! Proud to welcome @GregAbbott_TX & @tedcruz to Collin County for our #Victory2018 Labor Day Kickoff! You won't want to miss this - get your tix today! @KenPaxtonTX @VanTaylorTX @AngelaPaxtonTX @Scott_SanfordTX @MattShaheen @candynoble #KeepTexasStrong" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  76. ^ @TexasCruzer (May 1, 2018). "In tow with Rafael Cruz visiting the #RGV and McAllen! #ToughAsTexas #WeCruzN" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  77. ^ @RepStickland (August 23, 2018). "Looks like @BetoORourke 's comments on the NFL have gone viral. What should go viral are his absolutely insane liberal positions on late term abortion, anti #2a & failed Obamacare for all. He's wrong for Texas. #txlege #CruzCrew @tedcruz" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  78. ^ "Ninety-Six Texas County Sheriffs Endorse Ted Cruz". tedcruz.org. Retrieved October 12, 2018.
  79. ^ @DiamondandSilk (August 24, 2018). "Keep Texas Red. Vote for Senator @tedcruz" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  80. ^ a b "Current and Immediate Past Houston Police Officers' Union Presidents Endorse Senator Ted Cruz for Re-Election". Ted Cruz for Senate.
  81. ^ MATTHEW K. BURKE (July 20, 2017). "Sean Hannity Endorses Ted Cruz [AUDIO]". The PolitiStick.
  82. ^ @IngrahamAngle (October 12, 2018). "Texas—can you really be bought? Vote @tedcruz" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  83. ^ @marklevinshow (April 18, 2018). "Tight race in Texas? I don't know if this poll is right, but time to rally for Cruz regardless, folks" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  84. ^ @PatrickSvitek (September 19, 2018). ".@TedCruz and @DonaldJTrumpJr to do rally and fundraiser in Wichita Falls on Oct. 3, per local state rep @RepJamesFrank: www.facebook.com/repjamesfrank/posts/1811472588950466?__xts__[0]=68.ARAz0b7kTwEcjp_8QHOL4xtbZB8e8nrhxiYgXnSnpozaY3NrhmznUIxBq92Z5i7PilQO3LBTbRcKobwc75UFz-3PjGyDOE-smtY0b9Wut7Yk150wPPiCvyIWmKt2NN_RR4O8wWfSs5DWCy8S1IEh4s4YacWU-2YadgVJWEthLQ-opMfic2m5aw&__tn__=-R … #txsen #txlege" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  85. ^ @RealJamesWoods (October 8, 2018). "All the more reason to vote. Crush "Beto," unless you want more Sheldon Whitehouses and Cory Bookers. #TedCruz #VoteRed2018" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  94. ^ a b The Hill. "Julián and Joaquín Castro to campaign with O'Rourke in Texas". Twitter.
  95. ^ "TX-Sen: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Helps Beto O'Rourke (D) Pull Off A Doug Jones-Style Win". Daily Kos. December 28, 2017.
  96. ^ Livingston, Abby (January 26, 2018). "Houston fundraiser with New York Democrat Chuck Schumer rankles some Texans". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved May 4, 2018.
  97. ^ "AZ, NV & TX-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) Helps These Democrats In The West Flip The Senate". Daily Kos. March 29, 2018.
  98. ^ "TX-Sen: Sen. Kamala Harris (D. CA) Goes All in To Help Beto O'Rourke (D) Defeat Ted Cruz (R)". Daily Kos. August 4, 2018.
  99. ^ "TX-Sen: Sen. Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Beto O'Rourke (D) Win His Close Race Against Ted Cruz (R)". Daily Kos. May 21, 2018.
  100. ^ "TX, NV & AZ-Sen: Sen. Patty Murray (D. WA) Helps Democrats Make Big Gains In The West". Daily Kos. December 26, 2017.
  101. ^ Patrick Svitek [@PatrickSvitek] (April 23, 2018). "Elizabeth Warren sends fundraising email for @BetoORourke: www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/4/23/1759385/-TX-Sen-Sen-Elizabeth-Warren-D-MA-Goes-All-In-To-Help-Beto-O-Rourke-D-Defeat-Ted-Cruz-R … secure.actblue.com/donate/ew-beto?refcode=20180423em1v1s1 … #txsen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  102. ^ @ChrisMurphyCT (May 4, 2018). ".@BetoORourke is running against Ted Cruz in Texas. The gun lobby spent $518,272 on Cruz last year, but Beto is running his entire campaign on small donations from people like you. Chip in to help Beto here:" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  103. ^ @CoryBooker (September 8, 2018). "In Texas to campaign for @BetoORourke and others. So proud to have just finished a rally in Houston for @Lizzie4Congress a seat that is critical in flipping The House and having a check on Trump's power. Consider giving to her:" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  104. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand. "Every dollar you give before Nov. 6 goes a long way in making sure Dems can flip seats in the Senate and fight this administration's dangerous agenda. Donate what you can to help @BetoORourke, @kyrstensinema and @RosenforNevada win in tough red states:". Twitter.
  105. ^ "Massachusetts Congressman Joe Kennedy: 'The future of the Democratic Party is in Texas.' - First Reading".
  106. ^ "Ted Lieu on Twitter". twitter.com. Retrieved September 24, 2018.
  107. ^ @MarcVeasey (May 24, 2018). "Look who I found at the Dallas unity event this evening... our next Senator from the state of Texas @BetoORourke!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  108. ^ @BetoORourke (June 10, 2018). "Great being joined by Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson and everyone who came out" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  109. ^ @WendyDavis (August 26, 2018). ".⁦@BetoORourke⁩ is as authentic as it gets. Every day he's speaking to what true TX values embody-that every voice matters & that everyone merits opportunity. You've seen that viral video. Now read this excellent article. Bye-bye ⁦@tedcruz⁩" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  110. ^ @ChrisGTurner (August 15, 2018). "Great to catch up with our next U.S. Senator, @BetoORourke yesterday. And yes, we're in our official candidate uniforms. 😂 #txlege" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  111. ^ @LupeValdez (September 21, 2018). "We're with you, @BetoORourke" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  112. ^ Wilson, Jenny [@JennyWilsonUT] (October 12, 2017). "Thank you, Aaron! I'd love to join @BetoORourke in Washington next year. It's time for fresh voices" (Tweet). Archived from the original on February 17, 2018. Retrieved February 17, 2018 – via Twitter.
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External links[edit]

Official campaign websites