2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018

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  Senator Manchin (cropped 2).jpg Patrick Morrisey Official Campaign Portrait (cropped 3) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Manchin Patrick Morrisey
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 290,510 271,113
Percentage 49.6% 46.3%

West Virginia Senate Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County Results
Manchin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Morrisey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Senator before election

Joe Manchin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Manchin
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

On May 8, 2018, the Republican primary voters of the state nominated West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey as the Republican candidate.[1] In the general election, incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Manchin defeated Morrisey and was elected to a second full term.[2]

Background[edit]

Once a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level, West Virginia has become one of, if not the most, conservative states in the United States. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama 55-42 and In 2012, Mitt Romney defeated President Obama 62-35. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by a greater than 40-point margin against Hillary Clinton (68-26).

However, at the statewide level, West Virginia is much friendlier to Democrats. In 2016, while President Trump won the state with nearly 70% of the vote, Jim Justice (who was a Democrat at the time, before switching his affiliation to the Republican Party) won the gubernatorial election with 49% of the vote. In 2012, which was Senator Joe Manchin’s second most recent statewide election, he won with nearly 60% of the vote against John Raese.

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Paula Jean Swearengin
Individuals
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Joe
Manchin
Paula Jean
Swearengin
Undecided
SurveyMonkey (D-Swearengin) September 2017 46% 8% 38%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Democratic primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joe Manchin (incumbent) 111,589 69.79
Democratic Paula Jean Swearengin 48,302 30.21
Total votes 159,891 100.0

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in the primary[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Evan Jenkins
State officials
Organizations
  • West Virginia Chamber of Commerce[26]
  • Huntington Regional Chamber of Commerce[27]
  • Daily Mail[28]

Debates[edit]

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Evan
Jenkins
Patrick
Morrisey
Don
Blankenship
Bo
Copley
Jack
Newbrough
Tom
Willis
Fox News May 1, 2018 [29] Invited Invited Invited
WVPB April 23, 2018 [30] Invited Invited Invited Invited Invited Invited

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Don
Blankenship
Evan
Jenkins
Patrick
Morrisey
Other Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Morrisey) April 22–23, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 15% 26% 28% 18%
Fox News April 18–22, 2018 985 ± 3.0% 16% 25% 21% 8%[31] 24%
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) April 17–19, 2018 411 ± 4.9% 12% 20% 24% 5%[32] 39%
Osage Research (R-Morrisey) March 13, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 23% 17% 24% 4%[33]
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) March 5–6, 2018 400 27% 29% 19% 10%[34] 15%
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) February 5–6, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 18% 33% 25% 12% 12%
42% 36% 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC) October 19–22, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 34% 40% 26%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Republican primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Patrick Morrisey 47,571 34.94
Republican Evan Jenkins 39,888 29.28
Republican Don Blankenship 27,153 19.93
Republican Tom Willis 13,322 9.78
Republican Bo Copley 4,206 3.09
Republican Jack Newbrough 4,080 3.0
Total votes 136,220 100.0

Libertarian Party[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Constitution Party[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Denied ballot access[edit]

  • Don Blankenship, former Chairman & CEO of Massey Energy. Observers note that he may be ineligible to run due to West Virginia's sore-loser law which states that the loser of a partisan primary election cannot appear on the ballot as an independent or with another political party in the general election.[36] Blankenship is eligible to run as a write-in candidate.[37][38] Secretary of State Mac Warner denied ballot access to Blankenship's campaign on July 26, citing West Virginia's "sore loser" law. The Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia ordered Warner to deny Blankenship ballot access on August 29, 2018.[39]

Endorsements[edit]

Don Blankenship
Organizations

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Lean D October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[43] Tilt D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44] Lean D November 5, 2018
CNN[45] Lean D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[46] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[47] Lean D November 5, 2018
Fox News[48] Lean D November 5, 2018

Endorsements[edit]

Joe Manchin (D)
U.S. Senators
Labor unions
Organizations
Other Individuals
Newspapers
  • The Sunday News-Register[61]
Patrick Morrisey (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators
State Delegates
Organizations
Other individuals
Newspapers

Fundraising[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of Sep 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Joe Manchin (D) $8,872,162 $6,459,930 $4,200,530
Patrick Morrisey (R) $4,943,056 $3,315,300 $1,627,756
Source: Federal Election Commission[92]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
Rusty
Hollen (L)
Other Undecided
Emerson College October 28–31, 2018 1,013 ± 3.2% 47% 42% 3% 8%
Research America Inc. October 19–30, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 45% 40% 11% 5%
Strategic Research Associates October 12–19, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 52% 36% 4% 8%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC) October 16–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 44% 3% 12%
45% 47% 8%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–15, 2018 789 ± 3.5% 53% 47%
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) October 11–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 45% 2% 3%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-NRSC) October 7–9, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 40% 8%
Strategic Research Associates September 17–26, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 46% 38% 3% 13%
1892 Polling (R-Morrisey) September 24–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 45% 45% 10%
The Tarrance Group (R-SLF) September 23–25, 2018 612 ± 4.1% 47% 43% 5% 5%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) September 19–23, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 48% 36% 4%
Emerson College September 13–15, 2018 825 ± 3.5% 45% 33% 6% 16%
Harper Polling (R-35th PAC) August 23–26, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% 12%
Research America Inc. August 16–26, 2018 404 ± 4.9% 46% 38% 16%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 13–16, 2018 1,158 ± 2.9% 50% 40% 2% 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 892 ± 5.5% 53% 40% 6%
Monmouth University June 14–19, 2018 653 ± 3.8% 49% 42% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling June 12–13, 2018 633 49% 42% 9%
Hart Research Associates (D-DSCC) May 15–16, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 52% 40%
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) May 13–16, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 50% 42%
47% 40% 4%
WPA Intelligence (R) May 10, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 44% 46% 11%
Zogby Analytics September 27–30, 2017 320 ± 5.5% 45% 38% 17%
Research America Inc. August 11–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 51% 37% 12%
Harper Polling November 16–17, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 57% 35% 8%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018[93]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Joseph Manchin III (incumbent) 290,505 49.57% -10.98%
Republican Patrick Morrisey 271,112 46.26% +9.76%
Libertarian Rusty Hollen 24,411 4.17% N/A
Total votes 586,028 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

References[edit]

  1. ^ "United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved 2017-12-23.
  2. ^ a b Cheney, Kyle (April 19, 2015). "Joe Manchin won't run for West Virginia governor". Politico. Retrieved April 20, 2015.
  3. ^ Hains, Tim (May 9, 2017). "'Justice Democrat' Coal Miner's Daughter Paula Swearingen Announces Primary Challenge Against West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved May 9, 2017.
  4. ^ "Justice Democrat To Primary Joe Manchin". The Young Turks. Retrieved October 22, 2017.
  5. ^ a b c "Justice Democrats Targeting Barely-Dem Manchin With Progressive Primary Opponent". Ring of Fire (radio program). May 8, 2017. Retrieved May 9, 2017.
  6. ^ a b "BREAKING: Justice Democrats Are Primarying Joe Manchin". Kyle Kulinski. May 8, 2017. Retrieved May 9, 2017.
  7. ^ Canova, Tim (May 12, 2017). "Happy to endorse @paulajean2018 Swearengin vs @JoeManchinWV in US Senate primary. Hope @SenSanders will support her". Twitter.
  8. ^ "We're Running Hundreds of Candidates in a Single Campaign to Elect a Brand New Congress". Paula Jean Swearengin for Senate. May 8, 2017. Retrieved May 9, 2017.
  9. ^ "We're proud to endorse @paulajean2018 . She's building a movement". Retrieved March 1, 2018.
  10. ^ "Upshur County Indivisible--Votes proudly endorses @paulajean2018 for US Senate. @IndivisibleTeam @WCWVI #Democracy #Elections2018". Twitter. Retrieved April 22, 2018.
  11. ^ a b "United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018".
  12. ^ "West Virginia AG Patrick Morrisey Will Run for Senate in 2018" (PDF). www.usnews.com. July 10, 2017.
  13. ^ Kamisar, Ben (November 16, 2016). "10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018". The Hill. Retrieved November 17, 2016.
  14. ^ Schor, Elana; Everett, Burgess (November 18, 2016). "2018 showdown looms: House Republicans vs. Democratic senators". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
  15. ^ Geraghty, Jim (February 14, 2017). "In West Virginia, a Rising Republican Star Threatens the Nation's Most Vulnerable Democratic Senator". National Review. Retrieved February 22, 2017.
  16. ^ Bass, Kennie; Morris, Jeff (November 29, 2017). "Former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship to run for U.S. Senate". WCHS-TV. Retrieved November 29, 2017.
  17. ^ Lesniewski, Niels (May 2, 2017). "Coal Worker Who Confronted Hillary Clinton Takes on Joe Manchin". Roll Call. Retrieved May 2, 2017.
  18. ^ "Jenkins to challenge Manchin for U.S. Senate seat". WSAZ-TV. May 8, 2017. Retrieved May 8, 2017.
  19. ^ Howell, Craig (September 24, 2017). "Weirton resident seeking Senate seat". The Weirton Daily Times. Retrieved September 26, 2017.
  20. ^ "WV MetroNews – Willis enters US Senate race". wvmetronews.com.
  21. ^ Ferns, Ryan [@RyanFernsWV] (2 March 2017). "@ReganWV wasn't trying to dodge. Let me be more clear. If a conservative who is more qualified runs, then I'm not going to" (Tweet). Retrieved 3 April 2017 – via Twitter.
  22. ^ Ferns, Ryan [@RyanFernsWV] (18 August 2017). "@ASourAppleTree Running for reelection" (Tweet). Retrieved 18 August 2017 – via Twitter.
  23. ^ Marks, Rusty (May 12, 2017). "McKinley says it's too early to announce campaign plans". State Journal. Retrieved May 18, 2017.
  24. ^ Thomas, Alex (May 30, 2017). "McKinley to run for re-election in 2018". West Virginia MetroNews. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  25. ^ "McCuskey to serve as chairman for Jenkins' Senate campaign". wvrecord.com. August 18, 2017.
  26. ^ "W.Va. Chamber PAC Announces 2018 Primary Election Endorsements". West Virginia Chamber of Commerce. April 23, 2018.
  27. ^ a b "Campaign Trails: Chamber issues endorsements in primary". The Herald-Dispatch. April 17, 2018.
  28. ^ "Daily Mail endorsements: GOP Senate race is about who can beat Joe Manchin in November". Daily Mail. May 4, 2018.
  29. ^ "West Virginia GOP Senate Debate 2018". Fox News. 1 May 2018.
  30. ^ West Virginia Public Broadcasting (23 April 2018). "Republican Senate Debate" – via YouTube.
  31. ^ Tom Willis with 4 percent, Bo Copley with 2 percent, and Jack Newbrough with 1 percent
  32. ^ Tom Willis with 3 percent, Bo Copley and Jack Newbrough with 1 percent
  33. ^ Bo Copley with 2.5 percent, Tom Willis with 1.4 percent, and Jack Newbrough with "an unregistered amount"
  34. ^ Tom Willis and Jack Newbrough with 4 percent; Bo Copley with 2 percent
  35. ^ "WV SOS - Elections - Candidate - Online Data Services". services.sos.wv.gov. Retrieved 2018-06-16.
  36. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (May 21, 2018). "Blankenship to wage third-party bid after losing primary". Politico. Retrieved May 21, 2018.
  37. ^ "Don Blankenship To Mount Third-Party Senate Bid After Losing W.Va. GOP Primary".
  38. ^ "Convicted Coal Executive Starts Third-Party Ballot Petition Drive In W.Va". 6 June 2018.
  39. ^ Montellaro, Zach (August 29, 2018). "West Virginia Supreme Court denies Blankenship a spot on Senate ballot". POLITICO. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  40. ^ "W.Va. Constitution Party Nominates Don Blankenship as Candidate for U.S. Senate : Constitution Party of West Virginia". cpwv.org.
  41. ^ "Mark Brazaitis announces write-in U.S. Senate candidacy - Dominion Post". www.dominionpost.com.
  42. ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  43. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  44. ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  45. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  46. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  47. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
  48. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  49. ^ a b Brodey, Sam (August 4, 2017). "Franken, Klobuchar step up early with 2018 campaign cash for endangered Senate colleagues". MinnPost. Retrieved August 5, 2017.
  50. ^ Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to Manchin.
  51. ^ "OH, PA & WV-Sen: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) Helps These Dems Fight To Save Your Health Care". Daily Kos. June 12, 2018.
  52. ^ Campbell, Christine (June 29, 2018). "AFT-West Virginia Committee on Political Education 2018 General Endorsements" (PDF). AFT-West Virginia.
  53. ^ "The WVEA-PAC and JCEA-PAC proudly endorse the following candidates in the 2018 West Virginia Primary. Each candidate is a true proponent of public education and has stood with West Virginia educators on the issues that affect our profession the most". www.facebook.com. Jackson County Education Association. April 25, 2018.
  54. ^ "West Virginia – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  55. ^ Roberts, Cecil (March 28, 2018). "UMWA COMPAC Announces Endorsements for West Virginia Primary Election - UMWA". UMWA.
  56. ^ Sword, Josh; Walters, Andy; Breeden, Sherry; Ruckle, Stacey (June 12, 2018). "2018 General Endorsements". West Virginia AFL-CIO.
  57. ^ Lee, Dale (May 1, 2018). "One week to go until Primary Election Day - Tuesday, May 8. Early voting is currently underway. Remember to take some form of ID to the polls". www.facebook.com. West Virginia Education Association.
  58. ^ Hutchinson, Bill; Efaw, David. "Building Trades Endorsements for 2018 General Election" (PDF). West Virginia State Building and Construction Trades Council, AFL-CIO.
  59. ^ "Candidates We Endorse and Support - NCPSSM". www.ncpssm.org.
  60. ^ a b c "WV MetroNews – Saban, Huggins and West star in latest Manchin ad". wvmetronews.com.
  61. ^ "The Sunday News-Register Endorses Joe Manchin for U.S. Senate". The Intelligencer. October 21, 2018.
  62. ^ Hagen, Lisa (10 August 2018). "Trump to campaign for Morrisey in West Virginia". TheHill.
  63. ^ "Trump endorses Patrick Morrisey for U.S. Senate | News, Sports, Jobs - The Times Leader". The Times Leader.
  64. ^ Mike Pence. "Congratulations to @MorriseyWV on his victory tonight. @RealDonaldTrump and I look forward to working with him. The great people of WV need a senator who supports the #MAGA agenda". Twitter.
  65. ^ Capito for WV. "My full statement on tonight's election results:". Twitter.
  66. ^ Ted Cruz. "In the race for U.S. Senate in West Virginia, I am proud to endorse Attorney General @morriseywv, and I urge the voters in West Virginia to join me by supporting him: #WVSen". Twitter.
  67. ^ "Kentucky Senator Rand Paul to Rally for West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey". WOWK. 3 May 2018.
  68. ^ Bluestein, Greg (August 24, 2018). "David Perdue aims to shore up embattled Senate candidates". Politically Georgia.
  69. ^ Raven Tiara Brown. "Senator Shelley Moore Capito, Congressman Alex Mooney, and Congressman David McKinley gather in support of Attorney General Patrick Morrisey for a Get-Out-The-Vote Kickoff event in Charleston. @wchs8fox11". Twitter.
  70. ^ Alex Mooney. "Today, I am proud to endorse my friend and fellow conservative, @MorriseyWV for the United States Senate:". Twitter.
  71. ^ Colegrove, Andrew. "Evan Jenkins loses Senate primary race".
  72. ^ Pathé, Simone; Pathé, Simone (20 February 2018). "Scott Walker Backs Patrick Morrisey in West Virginia Senate Primary" – via www.rollcall.com.
  73. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad "Morrisey pulling in endorsements after announcing Senate run". wvrecord.com. July 20, 2017.
  74. ^ a b c Zuckerman, Jake (July 22, 2017). "Manchin raises big money for Senate campaign; Jenkins lags behind". Charleston Gazette-Mail. Retrieved August 5, 2017.
  75. ^ "Morrisey pulling in endorsements after announcing Senate run - Patrick Morrisey". 20 July 2017.
  76. ^ AG Patrick Morrisey. "Humbled that Trump group, Great American Alliance, has endorsed my candidacy. Honored to be one of first three Senate candidates announced". Twitter.
  77. ^ "Patrick Morrisey for Senate in West Virginia". Senate Conservatives Fund. January 24, 2018.
  78. ^ "ACU Endorses Patrick Morrisey". American Conservative Union. March 29, 2018.
  79. ^ "Citizens Fund Endorses Patrick Morrisey for Senate in West Virginia". Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund. April 16, 2018.
  80. ^ "Morrisey Receives Endorsement from Conservative Family Policy Council of West Virginia". Morrisey for Senate.
  81. ^ Students For Trump. "Liberal Joe Manchin has been deceiving the people of West Virginia for years!He supported Obama and Crooked Hillary,yet now supports Trump's policies when it is convenient for him.West Virginia deserves a Senator that shares their values! Elect @morriseywv @DonaldJTrumpJr". Twitter.
  82. ^ "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
  83. ^ "Pro-Life Group Endorses Patrick Morrisey in West Virginia Over "Pro-Life" Senator Joe Manchin". LifeNews.com. July 25, 2018.
  84. ^ "Coal Association Endorses Morrisey for US Senate". WV Coal Association. August 21, 2018.
  85. ^ Thomas, Alex (August 30, 2018). "US Chamber of Commerce backs Morrisey in Senate matchup". West Virginia MetroNews.
  86. ^ "NRA Endorses Patrick Morrisey for U.S. Senate". NRA-ILA. September 10, 2018.
  87. ^ John Bowden (October 19, 2018). "Blankenship endorses ex-W.Va. GOP Senate rival, calls him 'lying' drug lobbyist". The Hill.
  88. ^ "Dinesh D'Souza on Twitter".
  89. ^ Ben Kamisar (April 27, 2018). "Gorka backs W.Va. attorney general in GOP Senate bid". The Hill.
  90. ^ Donald Trump Jr. "He voted with Obama 83% of the time, sponsored gun control legislation and voted for excessive regulation. He's about as far from #maga as it gets. Lying about it now won't help. Vote @MorriseyWV for someone who will support @realDonaldTrump #WV #wvpol". Twitter.
  91. ^ "Patrick Morrisey for Senate". National Review. April 30, 2018. Retrieved April 30, 2018.
  92. ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved September 2, 2018.
  93. ^ https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/WV/92360/Web02-state.221451/#/

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites