United States elections, 2018

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2018 United States elections
Mid-term elections
Election day November 6
Senate elections
Seats contested 33 seats of Class I (+ special elections for 2 seats of Class II)
United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018United States Senate election in California, 2018United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2018United States Senate election in Delaware, 2018United States Senate election in Florida, 2018United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2018United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018United States Senate election in Maine, 2018United States Senate election in Maryland, 2018United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018United States Senate election in Michigan, 2018United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018United States Senate election in Montana, 2018United States Senate election in Nebraska, 2018United States Senate election in Nevada, 2018United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2018United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2018United States Senate election in New York, 2018United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018United States Senate election in Rhode Island, 2018United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2018United States Senate election in Texas, 2018United States Senate election in Utah, 2018United States Senate election in Vermont, 2018United States Senate election in Virginia, 2018United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2018United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2018United States Senate election in Washington, 2018United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018United States Senate elections, 2018 with specials.svg
About this image
Seats up for election (general & special):
  Democratic incumbent running
  Democratic incumbent retiring
  Republican incumbent running
  Republican incumbent retiring
  Independent incumbent running
  No election
Inset rectangle signifies a special election.
House elections
Seats contested All 435 voting seats (+ 5 of 6 non-voting seats)
Gubernatorial elections
Seats contested 39 (36 states, 3 territories)
Alabama gubernatorial election, 2018Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018Arkansas gubernatorial election, 2018California gubernatorial election, 2018Colorado gubernatorial election, 2018Connecticut gubernatorial election, 2018Washington, D.C. mayoral election, 2018Florida gubernatorial election, 2018Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018Illinois gubernatorial election, 2018Iowa gubernatorial election, 2018Kansas gubernatorial election, 2018Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2018Maine gubernatorial election, 2018Maryland gubernatorial election, 2018Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2018Michigan gubernatorial election, 2018Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2018Nebraska gubernatorial election, 2018Nevada gubernatorial election, 2018New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2018New Mexico gubernatorial election, 2018New York gubernatorial election, 2018Ohio gubernatorial election, 2018Oklahoma gubernatorial election, 2018Oregon gubernatorial election, 2018Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2018Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2018South Carolina gubernatorial election, 2018South Dakota gubernatorial election, 2018Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2018Texas gubernatorial election, 2018Vermont gubernatorial election, 2018Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2018Wyoming gubernatorial election, 2018Guam gubernatorial election, 2018Northern Mariana Islands gubernatorial election, 2018United States Virgin Islands gubernatorial election, 2018United States gubernatorial elections, 2018.svg
About this image
  Democratic incumbent eligible for re-election
  Term-limited or retiring Democrat
  Republican incumbent eligible for re-election
  Term-limited or retiring Republican
  Independent incumbent eligible for re-election
  No election

2018 elections in the United States will be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, except for certain special elections. All these races, regardless if it is for a federal, state, or local office, are being administered by the individual state and local governments instead of at the national or federal level. These midterm elections will take place in the middle of Republican President Donald Trump's first term. All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested. In addition, 39 state and territorial governorships as well as numerous other state and local elections will also be contested.

Issues[edit]

Campaigns[edit]

Advertisements[edit]

Nearly half of all ads by Democrats focused on health care, in particular on defending the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and keeping in place protections for individuals with preexisting conditions.[1] Almost a third of Republicans ads focused on taxes, in particular the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.[1]

According to a report by CNN, "So far in House, Senate and governor races this year, more than $124 million has been spent on more than 280,000 immigration-related TV ad spots... that's more than five times the amount spent during the 2014 midterms, when about $23 million was spent on less than 44,000 spots."[2]

President Trump and officials campaigning[edit]

In May 2018, President Trump began to emphasize his effort to overcome the traditional strength of the non-presidential party in midterm elections, with "top priority for the White House [being to hold] the Republican majority in the Senate". He was already at that time well into his own 2020 reelection campaign, having launched it on inauguration day, 2017. In May, on a trip to Texas for a Houston fundraiser targeting the midterms, he also held a fundraising dinner in Dallas for the 2020 campaign.[3] By early August, the president's midterm efforts had included rallies in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Montana and elsewhere "reprising the style and rhetoric of his 2016 campaign". Democrats "need to flip 23 seats to capture the speaker's gavel", USA Today put it. The President was addressing the economy, the border wall, the "trade war", "don't believe anything" and the space force in the rallies, per the report.[4]

In late August 2018, controversy surfaced about the degree of campaigning being done on what were termed "official" visits around the country. One report said, traditionally, partisan attacks and endorsements were kept out of official events but that President Trump was not observing that norm. Beyond the norm, one commentator was quoted referring to "laws designed to prevent taxpayer resources from being used for self-serving purposes ― in this case, for campaign purposes." White House-recognized individuals "familiar with the president's thinking" spoke without attribution on a conference call and in another call about the campaigning. The individuals identified 35 events by Cabinet and senior staff members "with or affecting House districts in August already ... [all] targeted districts" and described a July 26 Presidential trip, presented as "official", as having been "for" Rep. Rod Blum of Iowa and Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois. The White House (via deputy press secretary Lindsay Walters) responded to the report: "It is unfortunate but ultimately unsurprising that a liberal publication like Huffington Post would make these misleading accusations and misconstrue the intent of the response".[5]

Foreign interference[edit]

Russian interference[edit]

Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats stated during congressional testimony that "the United States is under attack" from Russian efforts to impact the results of the elections.[6] As of February 13, 2018, six US intelligence agencies unanimously reported their conclusion[7] that Russian personnel are monitoring American electoral systems, and promoting partisan causes on social media.[8]

On May 23, 2018, United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in a committee hearing, warned that the US government was not adequately protected from Russian interference in the 2018 midterms elections, saying, "No responsible government official would ever state that they have done enough to forestall any attack on the United States of America".[9]

On July 26, 2018, Missouri's Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill alleged that Russian hackers unsuccessfully attempted to break into her Senate email account,[10] confirming a report in The Daily Beast.[11]

On August 2, 2018, the Director of National Intelligence, Dan Coats announced along with FBI Director Christopher Wray at a White House press conference that Russia is actively interfering in the 2018 elections, saying "It is real. It is ongoing."[12]

Also on August 2, 2018, NPR reported that Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen reported to the FBI several attempts to compromise her campaign[13] including both spearphishing attempts on her staff, and a disturbing incident where someone called her offices "impersonating a Latvian official, trying to set up a meeting to talk to me about Russian sanctions and about Ukraine." Her opposition to Russian aggression and support of sanctions has placed her on an official Russian blacklist.[14]

On August 8, 2018, Florida Senator Bill Nelson told the Tampa Bay Times that Russian operatives have penetrated some of Florida's election systems ahead of the 2018 midterm elections. "They have already penetrated certain counties in the state and they now have free rein to move about," Nelson told the newspaper. He also stated that more detailed information is classified.[15] The Russian hackers may be able to prevent some voters from casting votes by removing people from the voter rolls.[16] Nelson provided no evidence of Russian hacking and was criticized by The Washington Post's Fact Checker who gave Nelson's claim four Pinocchios denoting it as an outright lie.[17]

At a summit in Helsinki with Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the conclusions of the US intelligence community, stating that he believed Putin's repeated denials of interference in American elections. Later, President Trump answered "no" in response to questions asking if he believed Russia would be targeting the midterm elections, but later claimed he was refusing to answer the question, not responding to it. In late July, the President reversed his position and said in a tweet that he's "very concerned" about allegations of Russian meddling, but adding that he believed interference would only benefit Democrats.[18]

Chinese interference[edit]

On September 26, 2018, at the United Nations Security Council, Donald Trump accused China of meddling in the upcoming midterm elections in America. Trump claimed that China was trying to damage his political stand prior to the elections as he has imposed tariffs on billions of dollars in Chinese goods.[19] Trump claimed, "they don't want me or us to win because I am the first president to ever challenge China on trade." China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, also present at the meeting denounced the accusation saying, "we did not and will not interfere in any countries' domestic affairs. We refuse to accept any unwarranted accusations against China."[20]

On September 25, 2018, Dan Coats, US Director of National Intelligence issued a warning about China’s cyber activities, calling them "unprecedented in scale" and "among the most active foreign states conducting cyber activities against United States interests."[21] On September 18, 2018, Trump accused China on Twitter for “actively trying to impact and change our election by attacking our farmers, ranchers and industrial workers because of their loyalty to me".[22][23]

Federal elections[edit]

The primary season runs from March to September 2018.

Congressional elections[edit]

Senate[edit]

The 33 senators in Senate Class I will be up for election. 23 of the seats to be contested are presently held by Democrats, and eight by Republicans (three of whom are retiring), with two being independents. The continuing senators are 43 Republican, and 24 Democrat. According to FiveThirtyEight, in 2018, Democrats face the most unfavorable Senate map that any party has ever faced in any election, as Democrats have to defend 24 Senate seats to eight Republican Senate seats.[24][25]

Additionally, special elections are scheduled for the same day, to fill vacancies in the other two Senate Classes: in Minnesota and Mississippi to fill the seats vacated by Al Franken and Thad Cochran, respectively.

House of Representatives[edit]

All 435 voting seats in the United States House of Representatives will be up for election. Additionally, elections will be held to select non-voting delegates for the District of Columbia and the U.S. territories, with the exception of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term.

During or prior to the 2018 House election on November 6, there were eight special elections:

In November 2017, the number of Republican congresspeople announcing their impending retirements or resigning their seats was vastly higher than since the 2006 Congress.[26] Most of these congresspeople faced tough reelection bids in 2018.[26] The number of retirements by Democrats was in line with previous Congresses.[26] The disproportionate number of Republican impending retirements is likely to harm Republican prospects in the 2018 mid-term elections as there will be fewer districts where Republicans have the incumbency advantage.[27][28][29] In the states of Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina, there will be no senatorial or gubernatorial elections, leaving House candidates at the top of the ticket.

State elections[edit]

The 2018 state elections will impact the redistricting that will follow the 2020 United States Census, as many states task governors and state legislators with drawing new boundaries for state legislative and Congressional districts.

Gubernatorial elections[edit]

Elections will be held for the governorships of 36 U.S. states and three U.S. territories, as well as for the Mayor of the District of Columbia.

Legislative elections[edit]

87 of the 99 state legislative chambers are holding regularly scheduled elections in 2018, as will six of the nine territorial legislative chambers. Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia do not hold regularly scheduled legislative elections in even years. Puerto Rico does not hold regularly scheduled legislative elections outside of presidential election years. Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, South Carolina, and American Samoa will only hold elections for their lower houses. In legislative chambers that use staggered terms, only a portion of the seats in the chamber will be up for election.

Ballot measures[edit]

157 ballot measures will be voted on in 34 states. These include many initiatives on redistricting reform and voting rights, marijuana, health care, and taxes.[30]

Local elections[edit]

Mayoral elections[edit]

Major cities that are holding mayoral elections in 2018 include:

Other elections and referenda[edit]

Table of state, territorial, and federal results[edit]

This table shows the partisan results of Congressional, gubernatorial, and state legislative races held in each state and territory in 2018. Note that not all states and territories hold gubernatorial, state legislative, and United States Senate elections in 2018; additionally, the territories and Washington, D.C. do not elect members of the United States Senate. Washington, D.C. and the five inhabited territories each elect one non-voting member of the United States House of Representatives. Nebraska's unicameral legislature and the governorship and legislature of American Samoa are officially non-partisan. In the table, offices/legislatures that are not up for election in 2018 are already filled in for the "after 2018 elections" section, although vacancies or party switching could potentially lead to a flip in partisan control. Note that at least seven seats in the House of Representatives will be vacant at the time of the election.

Subdivision and PVI Before 2018 elections[31] After 2018 elections
Subdivision PVI[32] Governor State leg. U.S. Senate U.S. House Governor State leg. U.S. Senate U.S. House
Alabama R+14 Rep Rep Split Rep 6–1 Split
Alaska R+9 Ind Split Rep Rep 1–0 Rep
Arizona R+5 Rep Rep Rep Rep 5–4
Arkansas R+15 Rep Rep Rep Rep 4–0 Rep
California D+12 Dem Dem Dem Dem 39–14 Dem
Colorado D+1 Dem Split Split Rep 4–3 Split
Connecticut D+6 Dem Split Dem Dem 5–0
Delaware D+6 Dem Dem Dem Dem 1–0 Dem
Florida R+2 Rep Rep Split Rep 15–11
Georgia R+5 Rep Rep Rep Rep 10–4 Rep
Hawaii D+18 Dem Dem Dem Dem 2–0
Idaho R+19 Rep Rep Rep Rep 2–0 Rep
Illinois D+7 Rep Dem Dem Dem 11–7 Dem
Indiana R+9 Rep Rep Split Rep 7–2 Rep
Iowa R+3 Rep Rep Rep Rep 3–1 Rep
Kansas R+13 Rep Rep Rep Rep 4–0 Rep
Kentucky R+15 Rep Rep Rep Rep 5–1 Rep Rep
Louisiana R+11 Dem Rep Rep Rep 5–1 Dem Rep Rep
Maine D+3 Rep Split Split R/I[a] Split 1–1
Maryland D+12 Rep Dem Dem Dem 7–1
Massachusetts D+12 Rep Dem Dem Dem 9–0
Michigan D+1 Rep Rep Dem Rep 9–4
Minnesota D+1 Dem Rep Dem Dem 5–3
Mississippi R+9 Rep Rep Rep Rep 3–1 Rep Rep
Missouri R+9 Rep Rep Split Rep 6–2 Rep
Montana R+11 Dem Rep Split Rep 1–0 Dem
Nebraska R+14 Rep NP Rep Rep 3–0 NP
Nevada D+1 Rep Dem Split Dem 3–1
New Hampshire Even Rep Rep Dem Dem 2–0 Dem
New Jersey D+7 Dem Dem Dem Dem 7–5 Dem Dem
New Mexico D+3 Rep Dem Dem Dem 2–1
New York D+11 Dem Split Dem Dem 17–9
North Carolina R+3 Dem Rep Rep Rep 10–3 Dem Rep
North Dakota R+17 Rep Rep Split Rep 1–0 Rep
Ohio R+3 Rep Rep Split Rep 12–4
Oklahoma R+20 Rep Rep Rep Rep 4–0 Rep
Oregon D+5 Dem Dem Dem Dem 4–1 Dem
Pennsylvania Even Dem Rep Split Rep 10–6
Rhode Island D+10 Dem Dem Dem Dem 2–0
South Carolina R+8 Rep Rep Rep Rep 6–1 Rep
South Dakota R+14 Rep Rep Rep Rep 1–0 Rep
Tennessee R+14 Rep Rep Rep Rep 7–2
Texas R+8 Rep Rep Rep Rep 25–11
Utah R+20 Rep Rep Rep Rep 4–0 Rep
Vermont D+15 Rep Dem Split D/I[b] Dem 1–0
Virginia D+1 Dem Rep Dem Rep 7–4 Dem Rep
Washington D+7 Dem Dem Dem Dem 6–4 Dem
West Virginia R+20 Rep Rep Split Rep 2–0 Rep
Wisconsin Even Rep Rep Split Rep 5–3
Wyoming R+25 Rep Rep Rep Rep 1–0
United States Even N/A N/A Rep 51-49[c] Rep 235-193
Washington, D.C. D+43 Dem[d] Dem[d] N/A Dem N/A
American Samoa N/A NP NP Rep NP NP
Guam Rep Dem Dem
N. Mariana Islands Rep Split Ind
Puerto Rico PNP/D Split PNP/R PNP/D Split PNP/R
U.S. Virgin Islands Ind Dem Dem
Subdivision PVI Governor State leg. U.S. Senate U.S. House Governor State leg. U.S. Senate U.S. House
Subdivision and PVI Before 2018 elections After 2018 elections

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ One of Maine's senators, Susan Collins, is a Republican. The other senator from Maine, Angus King, is an independent who has caucused with the Democrats since taking office in 2013.
  2. ^ One of Vermont's senators, Patrick Leahy, is a Democrat. The other senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, was elected as an independent and has caucused with the Democrats since taking office in 2007.
  3. ^ Prior the 2018 elections, the Republican Senate caucus consisted of 51 Republicans. The Democratic Senate caucus consisted of 47 Democrats and 2 independents.
  4. ^ a b Washington, D.C. does not elect a governor or state legislature, but it does elect a mayor and a city council.

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b McGill, Brian; Bykowicz, Julie (2018-10-09). "Health Care Crowds Out Jobs, Taxes in Midterm Ads". Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2018-10-09.
  2. ^ https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/14/politics/immigration-campaign-ads-midterms/index.html
  3. ^ Zeleny, Jeff,, Sarah Westwood and Pamela Brown, "Unprecedented? Trump aims to defy midterm campaign history", CNN, May 31, 2018. Retrieved 2018-08-22.
  4. ^ Fritze, John, "Trump's midterm message: Five things the president is telling voters", USA Today, August 11, 2018. Retrieved 2018-08-22.
  5. ^ Date, S. V., "White House Admits Trump Is Using Official Events For Midterm Campaigning", Huffington Post, August 22, 2018. Retrieved 2018-08-22.
  6. ^ Schlesinger, Robert (February 13, 2018). "'Frankly, the United States Is Under Attack': U.S. intelligence chiefs warn of Russian 2018 election interference about which Trump remains unmoved". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved February 13, 2018.
  7. ^ Herb, Jeremy (February 13, 2018). "US intel chiefs unanimous that Russia is targeting 2018 elections". CNN. Retrieved February 15, 2018.
  8. ^ Rosenberg, Matthew; Fandos, Nicholas (2018-02-13). "Russia Sees Midterm Elections as Chance to Sow Fresh Discord, Intelligence Chiefs Warn". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2018-02-14.
  9. ^ Cohen, Zachary; Koran, Laura (May 23, 2018). "Pompeo says the US has not done enough to protect 2018 elections". CNN.
  10. ^ Eli, Watkins (July 26, 2018). "Claire McCaskill says attempted Russia hacking on her office 'not successful'". CNN.
  11. ^ Desiderio, Andrew; Poulsen, Kevin (July 26, 2018). "Russian Hackers' New Target: a Vulnerable Democratic Senator" – via www.thedailybeast.com.
  12. ^ Kirby, Jen (August 2, 2018). "The US intel chief just said Russian interference is "continuing"". Vox.
  13. ^ Mak, Tim (August 2, 2018). "This Is 'Not Fine': New Evidence Of Russian Interference Meets Inaction, Frustration". NPR.
  14. ^ Desiderio, Andrew; Poulsen, Kevin (July 30, 2018). "Mystery Sting Targets U.S. Senator for Dirt on Russia Sanctions" – via www.thedailybeast.com.
  15. ^ Leary, Alex; Bousquet, Steve; Wilson, Kirby (2018-08-08). "Bill Nelson: The Russians have penetrated some Florida voter registration systems". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved 2018-08-08.
  16. ^ Diaz, Daniella; Marquardt, Alex (August 9, 2018). "Dem senator: Russians 'penetrated' Florida voter systems". CNN.
  17. ^ "Analysis - Has Russia hacked into Florida's election system? There is no evidence". Washington Post.
  18. ^ CNN, Jeremy Diamond,. "Trump suddenly says he's 'very concerned' about 2018 Russian interference". CNN. Retrieved 2018-09-09.
  19. ^ "Trump Accuses China of Interfering in Midterm Elections". The New York Times. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  20. ^ "Trump accuses China of election 'meddling' against him". BBC News. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  21. ^ "DNI Dan Coats warns China cyber activities target U.S. state, local governments". CBS News. Retrieved September 25, 2018.
  22. ^ "Donald Trump Twitter". Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  23. ^ "Donald Trump Twitter". Retrieved September 18, 2018.
  24. ^ Wasserman, David (2017-08-07). "The Congressional Map Has A Record-Setting Bias Against Democrats". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2018-09-13.
  25. ^ "Republicans Are Favorites In The Senate, But Democrats Have Two Paths To An Upset". FiveThirtyEight. 2018-09-12. Retrieved 2018-09-13.
  26. ^ a b c CNN, Sam Petulla and Jennifer Hansler,. "There is a wave of Republicans leaving Congress". CNN. Retrieved 2017-11-10.
  27. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (2017-09-12). "The Recent Rush Of GOP Retirements Is Good For Democrats". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 2017-11-10.
  28. ^ Cohn, Nate (2017-09-29). "Why Retirements May Hold the Key in Whether Republicans Can Keep the House". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2017-11-10.
  29. ^ "WOW: Survey Finds Among White Millenial Men, 23% Move From Dems To GOP In Last Two Years". June 29, 2018.
  30. ^ "2018 ballot measures - Ballotpedia". Ballotpedia. Retrieved 2018-10-16.
  31. ^ "2017 State & Legislative Partisan Composition" (PDF). National Conference of State Legislatures. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
  32. ^ Coleman, Miles. "2016 State PVI Changes". Decision Desk HQ. Retrieved November 9, 2017.