United States gubernatorial elections, 2017

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United States gubernatorial elections, 2017
United States
← 2016 November 7, 2017 2018 →

2 governorships
  Majority party Minority party
  Scott Walker by Gage Skidmore 4.jpg Dannel Malloy 2016.jpg
Leader Scott Walker Dan Malloy
Party Republican Democratic
Leader's seat Wisconsin Connecticut
Seats before 34 15

2017 gubernatorial races.svg
  Term-limited Democrat
  Term-limited Republican

United States gubernatorial elections will be held on November 7, 2017 in two states: Virginia and New Jersey. These elections form part of the 2017 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for these two states were in 2013. Both incumbents are term-limited, so both seats are open.

Election predictions[edit]

Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each seat, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat. Most election predictors use "tossup" to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate that one party has a slight advantage, "likely" or "favored" to indicate that one party has a significant but not insurmountable advantage, and "safe" or "solid" to indicate that one party has a near-certain chance of victory. Some predictions also include a "tilt" rating that indicates that one party has an advantage that is not quite as strong as the "lean" rating would indicate.

State CPVI Incumbent[1] Last
race
Cook
June 22,
2017
[2]
Roth.
Apr. 21,
2017
[3]
Sabato
June 15,
2017[4]
New Jersey D+7 (Chris Christie) (R) 60.3% R Likely D Likely D Likely D
Virginia D+1 (Terry McAuliffe) (D) 47.8% D Lean D Lean D Lean D

Race summary[edit]

State Incumbent Party First elected Incumbent status Candidates
New Jersey Chris Christie Republican 2009 Term-limited

Kim Guadagno (R)[5]
Phil Murphy (D)[6]
Seth Kaper-Dale (G)[7]

Virginia Terry McAuliffe Democratic 2013 Term-limited Ed Gillespie (R)[8]
Ralph Northam (D)[9]

Term-limited Republican incumbent[edit]

New Jersey[edit]

Governor Chris Christie was re-elected to a second term with 60.4% of the vote in 2013.[10] Christie is term-limited in 2017.

Republican candidates[edit]

Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno is the gubernatorial nominee for the Republican Party.[11]

Democratic candidates[edit]

Goldman Sachs executive and former United States Ambassador to Germany Philip D. Murphy is the Democratic Party gubernatorial nominee.[12]

Libertarian candidates[edit]

Peter Rohrman is the gubernatorial nominee of the Libertarian Party

Green candidates[edit]

Seth Kaper-Dale is the gubernatorial nominee of the Green Party.[13]

General Election Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Guadagno (R)
Phil
Murphy (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University June 7–12, 2017 1,103 ± 3.8% 26% 55% 3% 14%
Quinnipiac University April 26 – May 1, 2017 1,209 ± 2.8% 25% 50% 1% 21%
Quinnipiac University March 9–13, 2017 1,098 ± 3% 25% 47% 1% 25%
Quinnipiac University January 26–30, 2017 1,240 ± 2.8% 29% 45% 1% 22%

Term-limited Democratic incumbent[edit]

Virginia[edit]

Governor Terry McAuliffe won election with 48% of the vote in 2013.[10] McAuliffe is term-limited in 2017. Virginia is the only state that prohibits its Governor from serving consecutive terms.

Democratic candidate[edit]

Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam is the Democratic nominee for governor. Northam defeated former U.S. Representative Tom Perriello in the gubernatorial primary in June 2017.[14]

Republican candidate[edit]

Former chairman of the Republican National Committee and 2014 United States Senate nominee Ed Gillespie is the Republican nominee for governor. Gillespie defeated State Senator Frank Wagner, and Chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors and candidate for Lt. Governor in 2013 Corey Stewart. Gillespie was declared the winner of his primary in June 2017.[14]

Libertarian Candidates[edit]

Cliff Hyra, a lawyer from Mechanicsville, won the gubernatorial nomination of his party.

General Election Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)

administered

Sample

size

Margin of

error

Ralph

Northam (D)

Ed

Gillespie (R)

Other Undecided
Qunnipiac June 15-20, 2017 1,145 ± 3.8% 47% 39% 13%
Harper Polling June 14-16, 2017 500 ±4.4% 46% 46% 8%
Gravis Marketing May 14-19, 2017 3,097 ± 1.6% 40% 42% 18%
Washington Post/GMU May 9-14, 2017 1,395 ± 3.0% 49% 38% 3% 11%
Quinnipiac April 6–10, 2017 1,115 ± 2.9% 44% 33% 1% 22%
Quinnipiac February 10–15, 2017 989 ± 3.1% 41% 35% 1% 24%
Roanoke College January 15–20, 2017 484 ± 4.5% 32% 29% 39%
Mason-Dixon January 5–10, 2017 625 ± 4.0% 41% 44% 15%
Quinnipiac December 6–11, 2016 1,098 ± 3.0% 38% 34% 1% 28%
PPP June 13–15, 2016 1,032 ± 3.1% 36% 37% 28%
Gravis Marketing May 24–24, 2016 1,728 ± 2.0% 38% 40% 22%
PPP July 13–15, 2015 1,170 ± 2.9% 30% 37% 32%

References[edit]

  1. ^ Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
  2. ^ "2018 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved June 26, 2017. 
  3. ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 16, 2017. 
  4. ^ "2017-2018 Crystal Ball gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved June 16, 2017. 
  5. ^ "Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno entering 2017 N.J. governor race". 
  6. ^ {{cite web | title = 5 key things Phil Murphy says he'll do as governor of N.J. | url = http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/05/5_things_phil_murphy_says_hell_do_as_governor_of_n.html | accessdate = 2017-01-09
  7. ^ "Welcome to 2017 and the long list of gubernatorial candidates". Retrieved 2017-01-09. 
  8. ^ "Gillespie leads GOP field, but trails Northam in 2017 governor's race, poll finds - Roanoke Times: Politics". Retrieved 2017-01-09. 
  9. ^ "Arlington legislative delegation likely to stick with Northam". Retrieved 2017-01-09. 
  10. ^ a b "Election 2013". The New York Times. November 6, 2013. 
  11. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/06/nyregion/new-jersey-governor-primary-results.html?_r=0
  12. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/06/nyregion/new-jersey-governor-primary-results.html?_r=0
  13. ^ http://www.nj.com/middlesex/index.ssf/2016/11/highland_park_pastor_announces_hes_running_for_gov.html
  14. ^ a b McLaughlin, Seth (June 13, 2017). "Gillespie ekes out GOP win in Virginia governor’s race; Northam easily claims Democratic victory". The Washington Times. Operations Holdings. Retrieved June 30, 2017.