United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004
The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.
Michigan was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations predicted Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.
Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the 2000 presidential race, 2004 marked the first time since 1976 in which the state was not carried by the candidate who lead in the overall popular vote.
|Elections in Michigan|
There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.
- D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
- Associated Press: Toss-Up
- CNN: Kerry
- Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
- Newsweek: Leans Kerry
- New York Times: Leans Kerry
- Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
- Research 2000: Lean Kerry
- Washington Post: Battleground
- Washington Times: Leans Kerry
- Zogby International: Kerry
- Washington Dispatch: Kerry
Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.
Advertising and visits
The state has competitive suburban counties with a large Roman Catholic population. Kerry won this state with 51%. George W. Bush performed moderately well, but below potential, in the state winning a majority of the counties and congressional districts and performing moderately well, but below potential in suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Bush's lack of attention to economic issues important to Michigan voters may have been a reason for Kerry's win. Kerry won 70% of Wayne County, Detroit. Both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won the state of Michigan.
|United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004|
|Republican||George W. Bush (incumbent)||2,313,746||47.8%||0|
|US Taxpayers||Michael Peroutka||4,980||0.1%||0|
|Natural Law||Walt Brown||1,431||0.0%||0|
|Voter turnout (Voting Age Population)||64.2%|
|This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (December 2009)|
|Grand Traverse County||27,446||18,256|
|Presque Isle County||3,982||3,432|
|St. Clair County||42,740||36,174|
|St. Joseph County||15,340||9,648|
|Van Buren County||17,634||16,151|
By congressional district
Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.
|13th||19%||81%||Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick|
|14th||17%||83%||John Conyers Jr.|
Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:
- Carol Vining Moore
- Margaret Robinson
- Ida I. DeHaas
- Marcela L. Ort
- Vickie Sue Price
- Paul Todd
- Leonard Smigielski
- Bruce McAttee
- Stanley W. Harris
- Yvonne Williams
- Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
- Charley Jackson
- Joan Robinson Cheeks
- Roger Short
- Harless Scott
- Richard Shoemaker
- Michael Pitt
- http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[permanent dead link]